Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

More evidence of a narrowing trend federally from Essential Research, albeit based on small shifts in the primary vote.

The Guardian reports the first result from Essential Research in three weeks has Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, down from 53-47 last time. The changes on the primary vote are slight, with the Coalition up a point to 38% and Labor steady on 36% (CORRECTION: the Coalition is steady, and Labor down two). The Guardian report notes that Essential has changed the provider of the online panel from which its respondents are drawn from YourSource to Qualtrics, without changing the underlying methodology. Perhaps relatedly, the sample size is identified as 1652, where in the past it has been a little over 1000. The Guardian provides no further findings from attitudinal questions – we’ll see if the release of the main report later today provides anything on that front, along with the minor party primary votes.

UPDATE: Full report here. No change for the minor parties, with the Greens on 10% and One Nation on 7%. The poll was conducted between January 23 and January 31 – I’m not sure if this was a contingency for the long weekend, but in the past Essential’s field work dates have been Thursday to Sunday. Other findings:

• When presented with a number of explanations for a lack of gender parity in politics, the most favoured responses relate to the failures of political parties, and the least favoured relates to “experience and skills”. Gender quotas for parties have 46% support and 40% opposition, with age interestingly more determinative of attitudes here than gender.

• There are a number of questions on Australia Day, the most useful of which is a finding that 52% support a separate national day to recognise indigenous Australians, including 15% who want that day to replace Australia Day, with 40% opposed.

• Respondents were presented with various groups and asked who they felt they would prefer to see win the election. The most interesting findings are that the media was perceived as favouring the Coalition by 32% and 25%; that despite all the recent talk, pensioners were perceived to favour Labor by a margin of 42% to 28%; and that families with young children were perceived as favouring Labor by 50% to 21%.

UPDATE 2: It turns out that both the longer field work period and the larger sample were a one-off, to it will be back to Thursday to Sunday and samples of a bit over 1000 in future polls.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,781 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 56
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  1. electionblogger2019.simplesite.com @ #38 Tuesday, February 5th, 2019 – 8:00 am

    EVEN IF THE POLLS END UP FINISHING 51-49 LABOR SCOTTY’S GOING TO HAVE HARD TIME DEFENDING 23 SEATS UNDER 55.0 2pp AND WINNING THREE MORE TO ANNOY US FOR ANOTHER THREE YEARS.. DON’T HIT THE PANIC BUTTON YET KIDDIES–ITS A LONG WAY TO GO

    The Coalition goes into the election holding 73 seats, 3 short of majority government. The Coalition must retain all their seats and win 3 from opposition parties to win government for a third term. For every seat the Coalition loses in this election it must gain one. The net target is 76 seats.

    The Australian Labor Party goes into the election with 71 seats, five short of majority government. The ALP must retain all 71 seats they had before the election and gain 5 more seats from others parties to win a first term in government. Again, the net target is 76 seats.

    HOT SEAT DEFINITION

    A hot seat is a electorate seat at high risk of being lost by the Party holding the seat with a marginal vote advantage of less than 55.0%

    [eg Chisolm: Liberal 53.4 % v Labor 46.6 percent]

    COALITION HOT SEATS [23 SEATS]

    Electorate Party 2PP % VOTES

    Corangamite VIC LIBERAL 50.03 30
    Capricornia QLD NATIONAL 50.6 1,111
    Gilmore NSW LIBERAL 50.7 1,503
    Forde QLD LIBERAL 50.7 1,062
    Flynn QLD NATIONAL 51.0 1,814
    Robertson NSW LIBERAL 51.1 2,179
    Banks NSW LIBERAL 51.4 2,588
    Petrie QLD LIBERAL 51.7 3,059
    Grey SA LIBERAL 51.9 3,508
    Dickson QLD LIBERAL 52.0 3,275

    ^^^ That’s 10 already

    Hasluck WA LIBERAL 52.0 3,337
    Page NSW NATIONAL 52.3 4,822
    Boothby SA LIBERAL 52.8 2,688
    Dawson QLD NATIONAL 53.4 6,124
    La Trobe VIC LIBERAL 5 3.5 2,886
    Pearce WA LIBERAL 53.6 6,312
    Swan WA LIBERAL 53.6 5,848
    Bonner QLD LIBERAL 53.7 6,095
    Barker SA LIBERAL 54.2 8,119
    Leichhardt QLD LIBERAL 54.0 7,022
    Casey VIC LIBERAL 54.5 9,700
    Cowper NSW NATIONAL 54.5 9,426
    Reid NSW LIBERAL 54.7 8,489

    DEFENDING 23 HOT SEATS IS GOING TO BE A BIG ASK FOR THE COALITION IF THE ELECTION POLLS ARE ACCURATE – GAINING THREE MORE SEATS WILL BE HARDER

    I think Corangamite will easily go ALP as will Forde, Robertson and Petrie. it is hard to know what effect high profile candidate will have in Gilmore, Banks and Dickson. Capricornia is in NQ and is totally unpredictable. Herbert could be an LNP or Katter win. Flynn is also complex and although an ALP win is probable it is not a certainty. I do not know enough about grey to comment.

    I think as usual Hasluck will buck the trend and page might because the guy is nominally independent. You cannot make predictions about Dawson, leichardt because again NQ. There seems to be a swing on in WA so I guess there is a good chance Pearce and Swan and I am guessing also Casey and Latrobe, Bonner may be a step too far in Qld

  3. If Labor is elected at the next election and implements its policy of abolishing franking credits our annual income suddenly drops to $61,519 (almost 30 per cent)

    For a start, it is not abolishing franking credits, just ceasing to refund tax to people who didn’t pay tax.

    This guy’s income dropped ‘almost 30%’ to about $61k, which suggests that this amount comprises nearly all dividends. Assuming a healthy rate of return, say 5%, this guy has about $1,200,000 in shares. So don’t bother with the sad violins.

    By the way, having all his assets in shares is a bloody stupid investment strategy, especially if he was relying on franking credits to maintain his lifestyle. He should consider sueing his financial planner.

  4. jenauthor @ #39 Tuesday, February 5th, 2019 – 9:04 am

    And Fess – that is the crux of why there are so few sitting days — they KNOW that every time parliament sits, the coalition’s stocks fall. They have spent 2 years falling in holes with lack of direction/legislation/credibility on show when parliament sits.

    Morrison thinks that he can adopt Shorten’s practice of staying out of the way when the other side is making a public mess of themselves. One flaw in that idea is that the ALP hasn’t made such a meal of everything it touches, like the coalition has.

    Bowen has made a meal of defending his franking credit reform.

  6. Confessions @ #41 Tuesday, February 5th, 2019 – 9:10 am

    DEFENDING 23 HOT SEATS IS GOING TO BE A BIG ASK FOR THE COALITION IF THE ELECTION POLLS ARE ACCURATE – GAINING THREE MORE SEATS WILL BE HARDER

    Plus they are down to defending seats they’ve never really had to before like Warringah and Higgins.

    The latest polling suggests a minority govt is more possible now.

    Independents could well have the balance of power.

  7. Yep – sitting governments’ numbers improve when the HoR is in recess

    And when people do tune in, many will get their news from commercial radio and the Murdoch press. The Libs have confidence (somewhat misplaced) they can pick up a couple of points in a campaign where it is fought on friendly turf.

    So Essential Report has a new provider. Does that mean a whole new panel as well?

  8. zoomster @ #50 Tuesday, February 5th, 2019 – 9:19 am

    Yep – sitting governments’ numbers improve when the HoR is in recess and people can avoid thinking about politics.

    One of the take outs from doorknocking is the number of people who have no idea about what’s happening – who either assume there must be an election coming up in a couple of weeks because you’re there, or who are surprised to find out that there’s an election coming up in a couple of weeks.

    The average person isn’t interested. The complaint I used to get during RGR was not about instability but that the instability dominated the news, which meant that people couldn’t get away from politics. They want stable and boring because then they never hear anything about what’s going on.

    People want competent, genuine and decent politicians who aren’t as self-centred as ScoMo and Shorten.

  9. Burgey says:
    Tuesday, February 5, 2019 at 9:12 am
    Unpopular government in getting a bounce over the holidays when they aren’t visible shocker.

    _____________________________________

    Or, rather, when ordinary people (rather than tragics like us) are not paying attention.

  11. Political donations

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2019/02/04/big-four-accounting-firms-emerge-as-major-political-donors/

    The big global accounting firms — the architects of multinational tax evasion and systemic conflicts of interest in financial transparency — cemented their place as Australia’s major political donors in 2017-18, an analysis of the Australian Electoral Commission’s political donations data shows.

    The Big Four — who reap billions of dollars from taxpayers via government contracts — now rival the once unchallenged mega-donor, the financial services sector, in the size of their largesse to the major political parties. In 2017-18, they combined to give just over $900,000 to Labor and the Coalition, up from $830,000 in 2016-17 — a remarkable increase given there was no federal, Victorian or NSW election during the year. In 2015-16, ahead of the federal election called by Malcolm Turnbull, they only gave around $690,000.

  13. Simon² Katich® @ #18 Tuesday, February 5th, 2019 – 9:32 am

    Yep – sitting governments’ numbers improve when the HoR is in recess

    And when people do tune in, many will get their news from commercial radio and the Murdoch press. The Libs have confidence (somewhat misplaced) they can pick up a couple of points in a campaign where it is fought on friendly turf.

    So Essential Report has a new provider. Does that mean a whole new panel as well?

    From William’s notes.

    The Guardian report notes that Essential has changed the provider of the online panel from which its respondents are drawn from YourSource to Qualtrics, without changing the underlying methodology. Perhaps relatedly, the sample size is identified as 1652, where in the past it has been a little over 1000. ☮

  14. Working poor, homelessness and the pipe-dream of stability

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-05/employed-and-homeless-people-seeking-assistance-rises/10773692

    Census data shows the rate of homelessness has been steadily increasing in recent years, but men and women sleeping rough on the street only tells part of the story.

    Australia is experiencing a dramatic rise in the number of people working either part-time or full-time who are turning to homelessness services to get by.

    In Australia, the number of employed people approaching homelessness services has increased by 25 per cent over four years to reach 21,938 in the 2017-18 financial year.

  17. Way to go Sohar!

    PB Essential-Poll 2019-02-05
    Actual: ALP 52 to 48 LNP
    PB mean: ALP 56.6 to 43.4 LNP
    PB median: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 18

    ALP / LNP
    56 / 44 bilko
    54 / 46 BK
    54 / 46 Confessions
    99 / 1 Dan Gulberry
    53 / 47 Frednk *permanent
    55 / 45 Fulvio Sammut
    57 / 43 Gecko
    53 / 47 Grumps
    53 / 47 guytaur
    54 / 46 Late Riser
    54 / 46 Mr Ed
    53 / 47 pica
    57 / 43 Puffytmd
    54 / 46 sonar
    55 / 45 Socrates
    52 / 48 Sohar
    53 / 47 Upnorth
    53 / 47 Zoidlord

  18. KJ
    Right. So safe to assume a new panel. Do we have any info about the Qualtrics panel? Sourced from The Australian subscribers database?

  20. lizzie @ #7 Tuesday, February 5th, 2019 – 7:44 am

    This is a must-read. not only because of Richard Flanagan’s beautiful prose, but its truth.

    …

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/05/tasmania-is-burning-the-climate-disaster-future-has-arrived-while-those-in-power-laugh-at-us

    Absolutely. Very disturbing, but brilliantly written …

    Climate change isn’t just happening. It’s happening far quicker than has been predicted. Each careful scientific prediction is rapidly overtaken by the horror of profound natural changes that seem to be accelerating, with old predictions routinely outdone by the worsening reality – hotter, colder, wetter, drier, windier, wilder, and ever more destructive.

  21. Good Morning.

    I hope the LNP enjoyed the polls today. They are going to go down down for them as the LNP is on record as protecting the Bastard Banks. Be in no doubt the Morrison voted 26 times against a Banking Royal Commission will be front and centre in the negative advertising of Labor campaig adverts.

    Weak and ineffectual as the banks tried to make it Hayne really exposed the banking industry. Now Labor has the evidence for its top end of town sloganeering as it fights against inequality

  23. KayJay says: Tuesday, February 5, 2019 at 9:40 am

    ************************************

    Apologies to others but KayJay/anyone can you please post the method of posting a pic from my hard drive to here ( imggmi is not working at the moment )

  24. For a sample size of 1652, the margin of error is about 2.5%.

    Yeah. If it is a new panel then any small movement from last one is especially pinch of salt stuff. Unless they tried to baseline the two. Which I doubt.

  26. electionblogger2019.simplesite.com @ #60 Tuesday, February 5th, 2019 – 8:37 am

    Rex Douglas says:

    The latest polling suggests a minority govt is more possible now.

    Independents could well have the balance of power-

    Antony Green would disagree with you Rex’

    Antony Green. Independents won’t matter as much as you think at the next election. ABC online. January 16 2019. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-16/independents-wont-matter-as-much-as-you-think-next-election/10716834?section=politics

    Electionblogger

    I am not especially impressed by Antony Green’s piece because it is a bit too “historical”. The thing is that party loyalty has declined sharply and I am not sure you can make too many predictions based on the past.

    it also predates announcements by Zali Steggal and Julia Banks.

    Certainly regional independents will do better, but when there is a protest vote on in safe Lib seats there is risk too.

  28. The Greens have been calling for structural reform, the elephant in the room that was not addressed – vertical integration.

    https://theconversation.com/haynes-failure-to-tackle-bank-structure-means-that-in-a-decade-or-so-another-treasurer-will-have-to-call-another-royal-commission-110437

    Every 10 to 15 years it’s the same.

    Ever since financial deregulation in the 1980s we’ve had a finance industry scandal followed by an inquiry, a quick fix, and a declaration that it shouldn’t happen again.

    In the early 1990s there were royal commissions into the A$1.7 billion Tri-continental/ State Bank Victoria collapse, the A$3.1 billion State Bank of South Australia collapse and the WA Inc collapse which explored the interrelated activities at Rothwells bank, the A$1.8 billion collapse of Bond Corporation and the A$1.2 billion siphoned from Bell Resources.

    A decade later in 2003 Justice Owen reported on the A$5.3 billion collapse of Australia’s largest insurer HIH.

    And now, bang on schedule, we have Kenneth Hayne delivering the final report of a royal commission into systemic misconduct in banking, superannuation and financial services industry to a government that voted 26 times against holding it.

    There are two particularly striking things about the 10-15 year cycle.

    One is the rhythm of public inquiries followed by reports, then (sometimes) trials, then books, then almost everyone forgetting (except for those personally scarred) only for problems to resurface later.

    The other is that the times between have been punctuated by government-commissioned banking and financial system reviews: the 1991 Campbell Inauiry, the 1996 Wallis Inquiry, the 2010 Cooper superannuation review and the 2012 Murray Review . Each either missed or downplayed the links between poor governance, industry structure, systemic misconduct and prudential risk.
    :::
    Taken together the recommendations are a patchwork of measures that if implemented will over time be eaten away – and at some point will be dismantled – because the rationale for their adoption will be forgotten.

    Even before they are implemented they will have to run the gauntlet of a massive subterranean lobbying effort from industry to water them down, something Hayne indicated he expected.

  30. Simon² Katich® @ #29 Tuesday, February 5th, 2019 – 9:44 am

    KJ
    Right. So safe to assume a new panel. Do we have any info about the Qualtrics panel? Sourced from The Australian subscribers database?

    I am clueless and rely on information from William Antony Green and others wot know stuff.

    Information from The Australian, The Daily Telegraph and The Sydney Morning Herald exist (in my mind) simply as data point plotting an intricate pattern of ludicrosity©.

    Toodles. 웃 (recent potrait of myself).

  32. Hung parliaments are a lot more likely now than, say, thirty or forty years ago, but that’s not saying much. Thirty years ago the chances were tiny, now they’re a slightly larger version of tiny.

    If the long term drift away from the major parties continues (and it’s showing no sign of turning around at this stage), minority governments may become commonplace twenty years from now. But it’s extremely unlikely we’ll have one after the next election.

  33. Anyway, what people are actually scared of is fires, flood and climate change.

    I hope to see Labor nail ScoFo over having zero climate policy: dancing around parliament with a lump of coal while the country burns.

  34. Rex Douglas @ #81 Tuesday, February 5th, 2019 – 9:55 am

    Player One @ #79 Tuesday, February 5th, 2019 – 9:54 am

    DaretoTread @ #76 Tuesday, February 5th, 2019 – 9:50 am

    … I am not sure you can make too many predictions based on the past.

    So, on what basis would you make them?

    the current mood

    The idiocy displayed here on PB is sometimes hard to fathom. Both you and DTT should sit back and think about what you said for a few minutes 🙁

  35. Peter Brent on independents

    https://insidestory.org.au/lets-not-get-ahead-of-ourselves/

    Declining major-party support must, eventually, be felt somewhere. Statistically, if five independent or minor candidates are each judged to have only a 20 per cent chance of success, there’s a 67 per cent chance one (or more) of them will win. We just don’t know which one.

    Yes, the crossbench is likely to grow this year. But, Oakeshott aside, it probably won’t include any of the current candidates we know of. After the result we can all explain the hows and whys of each new independent or third-party victory.

    Doing that months in advance, through the prism of fleeting impressions generated by the general media and social media zeitgeist, is most unwise.

  37. Re Flannagan on the G, yes. well written. I was recently walking around in those amazing swamp gum forests and the alpine heath. It hurts this nature loving heart of mine.

    The Right havent just been dog-whistling to the fears of their base; they have been actively cultivating those fears and divisions to the point we now have a virulent anti-environment tribe – where the environment and those trying to protect it is something to hate. They simply do not care if rare ecosystems are destroyed, some rejoice in it. What might cut through to the masses more is the research on the ice melt in the Himalaya. This will effect the water supply, power and irrigation of over a billion people. Climate induced global insecurity would pose a direct threat to humans that is easier for these tribal peeps to understand. It isnt hard to see how disrupting the water supply of a billion people can lead to world wars.

  38. Rex

    And how do we judge the current mood?

    If we use polling, then, according to Bludgertrack (see above), indies gain one seat and Labor is emphatically in government.

    Our alternative is making shit up.

  39. “Late last week, crossbenchers in the House of Representatives started to be contacted by journalists who had been briefed by the Government that the latest House of Representatives practice — effectively the rule book which governs how parliament runs — suggested that if the Government were to lose any motion on any substantive policy issue, it would represent a vote of no confidence and thus could prompt an early snap election.
    …
    The public service is convinced the Prime Minister may call an election during the parliamentary sittings to avoid a vote the Government would lose.” – Laura Tingle
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-04/signs-government-panicking-over-possibility-of-early-election/10777314

  40. Rex Douglas @ #54 Tuesday, February 5th, 2019 – 9:28 am

    jenauthor @ #39 Tuesday, February 5th, 2019 – 9:04 am

    And Fess – that is the crux of why there are so few sitting days — they KNOW that every time parliament sits, the coalition’s stocks fall. They have spent 2 years falling in holes with lack of direction/legislation/credibility on show when parliament sits.

    Morrison thinks that he can adopt Shorten’s practice of staying out of the way when the other side is making a public mess of themselves. One flaw in that idea is that the ALP hasn’t made such a meal of everything it touches, like the coalition has.

    Bowen has made a meal of defending his franking credit reform.

    Bollocks.

    “Frankly, I find it perverse that we send cheques to people with big share portfolios that amount to more than we provide a pensioner with no assets and no other income source,” he said.

    What you mean, Rex Douglas, is that you want to make it seem like Chris Bowen has messed up. However, the above is a very powerful argument.

    Or, don’t you agree because YOU want things to stay the way they are in order to protect YOUR investments and income stream?

    Don’t worry, I don’t expect an honest answer from you. Just another trite one-liner.

  41. On election predictions we have a yardstick or benchmark. Poll and election results.

    What did polls say and what were the results for the Victorian election?

    I for one was surprised that Hawthorn fell. Polling did not give us the full picture of the bloodbath coming in advance. It was rather like now. With the Federal polling.

    We just don’t know how “soft” those figures are.
    Combine with margin of error and we could still see a bloodbath for the LNP.
    That’s on today’s figures and of course there is plenty of time for the polls to change.

    I think the primary vote falling is LNP voters considering Independentent alternatives. As we saw with Sharkey in Mayo given a credible conservative choice voters will pick that alternative.

    Basically the polling is telling us the LNP will lose government. The only question is by how much?

  42. @JohnWren1950
    25m25 minutes ago

    If this debased @liberalaus government sets up a taxpayer-funded redress program for bank victims, it is in effect continuing to protect the banks. Why should taxpayers (the victims) fund their own redress? The banks must fund it themselves. #auspol

  45. Simon² Katich® @ #72 Tuesday, February 5th, 2019 – 5:49 am

    For a sample size of 1652, the margin of error is about 2.5%.

    Yeah. If it is a new panel then any small movement from last one is especially pinch of salt stuff. Unless they tried to baseline the two. Which I doubt.

    The new panel has been used for both polls this year. 🙂

  46. Lefty e,
    Right click image and select ‘copy image location/address’. Paste link in comment box where you want the picture to appear. When posted it appears as an image.

  49. phoenixRED @ #34 Tuesday, February 5th, 2019 – 9:48 am

    KayJay says: Tuesday, February 5, 2019 at 9:40 am

    ************************************

    Apologies to others but KayJay can you please post the method of posting a pic from my hard drive to here ( imggmi is not working at the moment )

    Certainly Señor.

    I place the desired picture on my desktop (I am using Windows 10 and Firefox – Chrome works just the same).

    I then goto

    Postimage.org

    and log on – this is not absolutely necessary but is required if you want to reaqcquire yopur masterpiece.

    You will be presented with the following:-

    You will then click on Choose Images
    and follow the bouncing ball to select the photo of your choice
    after which
    You will see something like

    You can then copy the link as indicated and paste it into you comment box.

    I think I need more coffee. See how you go. 🤞

    .

    .

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