Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The first Newspoll of the year records an improvement in the Coalition’s position after a particularly bad result in the final poll last year.

The Australian reports the first Newspoll of the year has Labor leading 53-47, compared with 55-45 in the final poll of last year. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 37%, Labor is down three to 38%, the Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation are down one to 6%. Scott Morrison leads 43-36 on preferred prime minister, down from 44-36, and is down two on approval to 40% and up two on disapproval to 47%. Bill Shorten’s net rating is reported at minus 13%, compared with minus 15% in the last poll – we will have to wait for later to see his exact approval and disapproval ratings. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1634.

UPDATE: Shorten is up a point on approval to 37% and down one on disapproval to 50%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,983 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 37 of 40
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  1. And you know what? I reckon ScuMo meant to get Malcolm Turnbull’s wife’s name wrong in public the other day as a sign of disrespect to Malcolm and Lucy Turnbull, and to show them that they are nothing to him anymore, now that he is Prime Minister.

  2. Mitch McConnell’s Ties to Russian Oil Money

    The Democratic Coalition’s ongoing investigation just uncovered the following evidence linking GOP Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) to Russian oil money, some of which we first revealed in February 2017.

    McConnell recently voted to drop sanctions against Russian aluminum company RusAl which is still owned by one of Vladimir Putin’s sanctioned oligarchs, Oleg Deripaska. His action directly benefits one of the GOP leader’s major donors, whose fortune comes from Russian oil.

    The Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC run by Sen. McConnell’s former Chief of Staff, received a total of $3,500,000 ($2,500,000 in 2016 and $1,000,000 in 2017) via Access Industries and a subsidiary. Len Blavatnik is a Russian oligarch with US and UK citizenship who owns Access Industries and donated to Sen. McConnell’s 2016 Senate campaign vehicles.

    Blavatnik’s Access Industries made many of its billions from Putin’s decisions about its Russian oil partnership. He is also a long-term business partner of Kremlin-linked Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska at RuSal, in which he is a major investor, as well as Viktor Vekselberg, who is entangled with Trump’s personal lawyer Michael Cohen through his U.S. family office Columbus Nova.

    Last week, Sen. McConnell led 42 Republicans in voting against a resolution to maintain sanctions on Blavatnik’s business partner Deripaska.

    The Trump Administration formally dropped sanctions on the night of January 27th, 2019, which were imposed against Deripaska, Blavatnik’s long time business partner, for his high-level role in Russia’s election attack against the United States in 2016. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin is also a longtime business partner of Blavatnik.

    https://medium.com/@TheDemCoalition/mitch-mcconnells-ties-to-russian-oil-money-db56f16a4824

  4. electionblogger2019.simplesite.com

    I found it on Twitter by @JohnWren1950, but I don’t know where he got it from.
    I’m not talented enough.

  5. nath says:

    Shorten’s blame scorch mark on kids!

    You seem a little off your game. Where was your claim the scorch marks were the result of Bill’s pants catching fire during the interview ?

  7. don @ #1682 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 5:39 pm

    BH @ #1701 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 4:32 pm

    Dio and Itza
    Thankyou altho just reading your posts gives me shivers. The thought of a GA is scarier for me so I had to give reasons why – 2 rather dramatic events years ago. Surgeon seemed OK and as we are new to the area I’ve relied on GP. It’s being done on 12th.

    I really need to steel my mind to a local. Is it like the twilight zone for a colonoscopy? If so, i’ll cope. Hate the thought of making a fool of myself.
    #medsonPB

    You’ll be fine.

    When I am in the dentist’s chair and the injection is going in, and the local is not working as well as it should (this is usual for me, obviously my jaw has different nerve organisation to other people, dentists can get quite stroppy when you tell them it didn’t work!) I dig my fingernails hard into my palms or my leg.

    The brain can only cope with so many signals (at that low level) and the pain is hardly noticeable.

    Experienced nurses giving you a jab in the arm for something or other put their fingernail against their thumb, let go and flick the skin, then put in the needle. You don’t feel a thing.

    Come on now me ol’ hearty.

    Where the hell were you the last time I had injections to deaden the pain for cancer removal from back of neck ❓

    I had to dig my own fingernails into my leg.

    We need to synchronise our activities. I am, contrary to previous posts, looking forward to another colonoscopy – in the fond hope that an all clear will be the verdict from my favourite surgeon after the event.

    Time for me to pack up for the night.

    📚 🍳 💤

  8. lizzie @ #1802 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 6:31 pm

    electionblogger2019.simplesite.com

    I found it on Twitter by @JohnWren1950, but I don’t know where he got it from.
    I’m not talented enough.

    The circle group was the celebration in the lower house after the rescinding of the ‘carbon tax’. I posted it last week when Kelly O’Bigmouth announced her profound support for the current government.

  12. Asher Wolf
    ‏@Asher_Wolf
    15m15 minutes ago

    The Victorian Prize for Literature is worth $100k. It is the single most valuable literary award in Australia. @BehrouzBoochani – a prisoner in an Australian offshore detention centre on Manus Island, PNG – just won it

  15. lizzie @ #1809 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 6:44 pm

    Asher Wolf
    ‏@Asher_Wolf
    15m15 minutes ago

    The Victorian Prize for Literature is worth $100k. It is the single most valuable literary award in Australia. @BehrouzBoochani – a prisoner in an Australian offshore detention centre on Manus Island, PNG – just won it

    I must think like a Coalition staffer sometimes, but I remember back to the Howard years when they tried to charge asylum seekers for their detention, so it wouldn’t surprise me if they try and take that money away using the same scabrous reason.

  16. @ABCthedrum
    2h2 hours ago

    “There’s nearly 750 pages to read. It would be very pre-emptive to make any assumptions from me.” In response to Murray-Darling Basin report, Minister Water Resources David Littleproud says we should be “proud as a nation” that “we’ve worked collectively” #TheDrum

    Baloney on stilts. pic.twitter.com/IEC582pafy

  18. The Victorian Prize for Literature, and the Prize for Non-Fiction: No Friend But the Mountains: Writing from Manus Prison by Behrouz Boochani (Picador Australia)

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/31/behrouz-boochani-asylum-seeker-manus-island-detained-wins-victorian-literary-prize-australias-richest

    The winner of Australia’s richest literary prize did not attend the ceremony.

    His absence was not by choice.

    Behrouz Boochani, whose debut book won both the $25,000 non-fiction prize at the Victorian premier’s literary awards and the $100,000 Victorian prize for literature on Thursday night, is not allowed into Australia.

    The Kurdish Iranian writer is an asylum seeker who has been kept in purgatory on Manus Island in Papua New Guinea for almost six years, first behind the wire of the Australian offshore detention centre, and then in alternative accommodation on the island.

    Now his book No Friend But the Mountains – composed one text message at a time from within the detention centre – has been recognised by a government from the same country that denied him access and locked him up.
    :::
    “My main aim has always been for the people in Australia and around the world to understand deeply how this system has tortured innocent people on Manus and Nauru in a systematic way for almost six years. I hope this award will bring more attention to our situation, and create change, and end this barbaric policy.”

    Boochani speaks via text messages, because his internet connection keeps cutting out.

    For an asylum seeker kept in offshore detention to win such a major prize “brings enormous shame to the Australian government”, he said.
    :::
    “This is one of the most vicious forms of neocolonial oppression that is taking over the world at the moment – and to address this book in this way and to recognise it and draw attention to the narrative it is presenting will have repercussions for many generations to come.”

  19. C@t
    Looks like it was Keating who got there first rather than Howard
    .
    .
    .
    However, mandatory detention was subsequently extended to all ‘unlawful’ non-citizens with the enactment of the Migration Reform Act 1992 (when the Act came into effect on 1 September 1994):…………………. The Act had bipartisan support. [29]

    In an acknowledgement of the high costs of mandatory detention, the Act also introduced detention charges (detention debts) whereby an unlawful non-citizen was liable for the costs of his or her immigration detention.[30]

    In his second reading speech Minister Hand provided the Government’
    https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BN/2012-2013/Detention#_ftnref30

  20. It took 6 days for Morrison’s God to create the world.

    It’s a little presumptuous of you to expect to change it in one, Lizzie!

  21. lizzie says:
    Thursday, January 31, 2019 at 6:52 pm
    @ABCthedrum
    2h2 hours ago

    “There’s nearly 750 pages to read. It would be very pre-emptive to make any assumptions from me.” In response to Murray-Darling Basin report, Minister Water Resources David Littleproud says we should be “proud as a nation” that “we’ve worked collectively” #TheDrum

    Baloney on stilts. pic.twitter.com/IEC582pafy

    Yep, kick into the post election long grass with LQBTIQ+ v ‘freedom of religion’, the Israel embassy, energy policy, refugees and Asylum seekers processing issues, a genuine response to DV in Australia, equality of male-female representation in the Coalition, carbon emission reduction and other ‘aspirations’ … Ughhh !!

  22. C@tmomma @ #1813 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 5:49 pm

    lizzie @ #1809 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 6:44 pm

    Asher Wolf
    ‏@Asher_Wolf
    15m15 minutes ago

    The Victorian Prize for Literature is worth $100k. It is the single most valuable literary award in Australia. @BehrouzBoochani – a prisoner in an Australian offshore detention centre on Manus Island, PNG – just won it

    I must think like a Coalition staffer sometimes, but I remember back to the Howard years when they tried to charge asylum seekers for their detention, so it wouldn’t surprise me if they try and take that money away using the same scabrous reason.

    How might a detained asylum seeker bank a gift of $100K without a bank account or something like it? Possibly the money can be held in trust, or similar. ???

  25. Ch 10 5pm news led with the MDB RC report and a visit to Menindee by the NSW deputy premier, Barilaro, who received a very hot reception from the locals.

    Nothing about the poor rich retirees, at least in the part of the news I saw.

    EDIT: Many NSW voters may hardly know where Menindee is, however the disaster is likely to hover over the coalition in the pre-election period.

  28. I do wish the most stupid of the trolls on here would get out of Menzies house or the IPA offices sometimes. That way it could, perhaps, realise that that stock don’t graze on dry river banks. Must be a COALition troll not to know something as simple as that…

  29. Just putting it out there:

    Accepting the award on Boochani’s behalf was his translator, Omid Tofighian, who worked with interpreter Moones Mansoubi to translate Boochani’s Farsi text to English.

    Perhaps one of these collaborators will hold the money in trust, or whatever, for him until or if he is ever released from his prison.

  30. Sydney’s blackout was caused by overgrown weeds:

    “The blackout was caused by overgrown weeds, believed to be shoulder-high in some places, that grew around the equipment in an electrical substation on the corner of Epping and Manning roads in Double Bay

    These weeds came into contact with the 132-kilovolt power cable where it emerges from the ground to connect to the switching equipment in Double Bay.”

    I wonder how many similar situations like this are lurking in bushfire prone areas. And who’s responsibility was it to keep weeds away from power cables and equipment. The answer of course is “someone else”, whoever you ask.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/overgrown-weeds-the-source-of-sydney-blackouts-20190131-p50uwq.html

  33. Pegasus @ #1815 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 6:58 pm

    The Victorian Prize for Literature, and the Prize for Non-Fiction: No Friend But the Mountains: Writing from Manus Prison by Behrouz Boochani (Picador Australia)

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/31/behrouz-boochani-asylum-seeker-manus-island-detained-wins-victorian-literary-prize-australias-richest

    The winner of Australia’s richest literary prize did not attend the ceremony.

    His absence was not by choice.

    Behrouz Boochani, whose debut book won both the $25,000 non-fiction prize at the Victorian premier’s literary awards and the $100,000 Victorian prize for literature on Thursday night, is not allowed into Australia.

    The Kurdish Iranian writer is an asylum seeker who has been kept in purgatory on Manus Island in Papua New Guinea for almost six years, first behind the wire of the Australian offshore detention centre, and then in alternative accommodation on the island.

    Now his book No Friend But the Mountains – composed one text message at a time from within the detention centre – has been recognised by a government from the same country that denied him access and locked him up.
    :::
    “My main aim has always been for the people in Australia and around the world to understand deeply how this system has tortured innocent people on Manus and Nauru in a systematic way for almost six years. I hope this award will bring more attention to our situation, and create change, and end this barbaric policy.”

    Boochani speaks via text messages, because his internet connection keeps cutting out.

    For an asylum seeker kept in offshore detention to win such a major prize “brings enormous shame to the Australian government”, he said.
    :::
    “This is one of the most vicious forms of neocolonial oppression that is taking over the world at the moment – and to address this book in this way and to recognise it and draw attention to the narrative it is presenting will have repercussions for many generations to come.”

    Bravo !!

  34. Before anyone lays into me for being a facetious so and so, I was trying to highlight the ludicrousness of the Governments position on immigration and refugees.

  35. Steve777 @ #1827 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 7:09 pm

    Sydney’s blackout was caused by overgrown weeds:

    “The blackout was caused by overgrown weeds, believed to be shoulder-high in some places, that grew around the equipment in an electrical substation on the corner of Epping and Manning roads in Double Bay

    These weeds came into contact with the 132-kilovolt power cable where it emerges from the ground to connect to the switching equipment in Double Bay.”

    I wonder how many similar situations like this are lurking in bushfire prone areas. And who’s responsibility was it to keep weeds away from power cables and equipment. The answer of course is “someone else”, whoever you ask.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/overgrown-weeds-the-source-of-sydney-blackouts-20190131-p50uwq.html

    Maintenance cutbacks. Gotta increase the profit share and returns to shareholders, m’boy!

  36. citizen @ #1822 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 7:07 pm

    Ch 10 5pm news led with the MDB RC report and a visit to Menindee by the NSW deputy premier, Barilaro, who received a very hot reception from the locals.

    Nothing about the poor rich retirees, at least in the part of the news I saw.

    While many NSW voters may hardly know where Menindee is, however the disaster is likely to hover over the coalition in the pre-election period.

    They should have pelted him with rotten fish while he was doing the walk of shame.

  37. How the hell could weeds short out a 132kV line FFS. That’s 132,000 volts. Just as well it wasn’t kiddies playing poke that with a stick.

  38. C@tmomma @ #1834 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 7:18 pm

    Steve777 @ #1827 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 7:09 pm

    Sydney’s blackout was caused by overgrown weeds:

    “The blackout was caused by overgrown weeds, believed to be shoulder-high in some places, that grew around the equipment in an electrical substation on the corner of Epping and Manning roads in Double Bay

    These weeds came into contact with the 132-kilovolt power cable where it emerges from the ground to connect to the switching equipment in Double Bay.”

    I wonder how many similar situations like this are lurking in bushfire prone areas. And who’s responsibility was it to keep weeds away from power cables and equipment. The answer of course is “someone else”, whoever you ask.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/overgrown-weeds-the-source-of-sydney-blackouts-20190131-p50uwq.html

    Maintenance cutbacks. Gotta increase the profit share and returns to shareholders, m’boy!

    Is Daley going to buy back essential services ?

    If not, why not ??

  41. “If not, why not ??”

    I wish he could. However, the billions aren’t there any more. The proceeds of their sale have been long since been pissed up against the wall in tax cuts and “bribes” to win long-forgotten elections.

  42. The “breaking news” items in the Oz are supplied by AAP and often are free of the usual Murdoch bias.

    This one clearly explains how Morrison is desperately using the “retiree tax” to try and save some of the furniture.

    Scott Morrison and his team are spending a lot of time talking about something that doesn’t exist.

    The so-called “retiree tax” is not a tax on retirees.

    But coalition figures are constantly bringing it up because they’re taking advantage of an understandable confusion about a complex but important handout.

    The focus on Labor’s dividend imputation changes could be the coalition acknowledging it needs to save the furniture before a wipeout at the federal election.

    In the aftermath of the August leadership spill there were still plenty of Liberals who thought the coalition could retain government, despite the polls.

    They’re harder to find now, and the recent frontbench retirements show confidence isn’t particularly high.

    Many older voters who usually vote for the coalition abandoned the Liberals and Nationals following the Turnbull spill.

    Many of them want the coalition to do more on climate change. Many have solar panels on their roofs.

    “A lot of the victims of the banks have been older Australians,” Bill Shorten helpfully pointed out too, before the royal commission’s report is released on Monday.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/pm-fighting-rearguard-action-to-save-votes/news-story/efcf9365fc6eca452db0ae790b68d1bd

  43. “Sydney’s blackout was caused by overgrown weeds”….Greenies fault for not allowing proper clearing and back burning of weeds…..no doubt

  44. I believe Anna Bligh was a member of the Labor Left!!!

    I just saw her on 7:30 spewing her unctious shit about how the banks need clarity and advice about what is good and bad!!!

    The implication is that the thieving capitalist malfeasance of the corrupt bankers is the community’s fault because they have not told the bankers what is right or wrong!!! Where does Labor get these moral cane toads from?

    Then there is the appalling Murray Darling criminal destrucion of the environment game.

    Why does Australia have such terrible politicians?

    We need legislation to make crimes and prison time for politicians’ malfeasance and decisions they make that steal from the community.

  46. swamprat @ #1837 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 6:45 pm

    I believe Anna Bligh was a member of the Labor Left!!!

    I just saw her on 7:30 spewing her unctious shit about how the banks need clarity and advice about what is good and bad!!!

    The implication is that the thieving capitalist malfeasance of the corrupt bankers is the community’s fault because they have not told the bankers what is right or wrong!!! Where does Labor get these moral cane toads from?

    Then there is the appalling Murray Darling criminal destrucion of the environment game.

    Why does Australia have such terrible politicians?

    We need legislation to make crimes and prison time for politicians’ malfeasance and decisions they make that steal from the community.

    Swamp

    Yes Anna was the darling of the Qld left (me included). Although I was furious with her over the privatisation debacle, I thought she was just yielding to bad advice and otherwise admired her greatly.

    I was a naive idiot, and I am personally still very disappointed. The warning signs were there – her stance on abortion was chicken little.

  47. citizen @ #1841 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 7:40 pm

    The “breaking news” items in the Oz are supplied by AAP and often are free of the usual Murdoch bias.

    This one clearly explains how Morrison is desperately using the “retiree tax” to try and save some of the furniture.

    Scott Morrison and his team are spending a lot of time talking about something that doesn’t exist.

    The so-called “retiree tax” is not a tax on retirees.

    But coalition figures are constantly bringing it up because they’re taking advantage of an understandable confusion about a complex but important handout.

    The focus on Labor’s dividend imputation changes could be the coalition acknowledging it needs to save the furniture before a wipeout at the federal election.

    In the aftermath of the August leadership spill there were still plenty of Liberals who thought the coalition could retain government, despite the polls.

    They’re harder to find now, and the recent frontbench retirements show confidence isn’t particularly high.

    Many older voters who usually vote for the coalition abandoned the Liberals and Nationals following the Turnbull spill.

    Many of them want the coalition to do more on climate change. Many have solar panels on their roofs.

    “A lot of the victims of the banks have been older Australians,” Bill Shorten helpfully pointed out too, before the royal commission’s report is released on Monday.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/pm-fighting-rearguard-action-to-save-votes/news-story/efcf9365fc6eca452db0ae790b68d1bd

    They run with rubbish like ‘retiree tax’ because dolts like Bowen can’t sell his policy.

  49. Fulvio

    “The Libs are waiting for another Gillard to say’You can call it a tax if you like”.

    ———–

    Don’t say that. Silly Chris Bowen will say it!

  50. Bowen should say straight out that “Retiree Tax” is a lie and that Morrison and others spouting this crap know it.

    Vote Liberal if you want to subsidise wealthy retirees. If you think there are better things to spend several billion on, vote Labor.

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