The West Australian today reports that Human Services Minister Michael Keenan will be joining the exodus at the election, creating a vacancy in his northern suburbs Perth seat of Stirling. The seat was long highly marginal, but Keenan has held it on mostly comfortable margins since he gained the seat from Labor in 2004.
There is also a uComms/ReachTEL poll in The Australian from the scene of the week’s other big retirement announcements, the Melbourne seat of Higgins. Conducted on Thursday from a sample of 860 for interests who wish to bring about the return of Peter Costello, the poll finds Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48. This compares with a 10.7% margin for retiring Liberal member Kelly O’Dwyer in Liberals-versus-Labor terms, although it’s perfectly in line with how the electorate voted at the election. It was in fact the Greens who finished second in 2016, but the poll suggests that is unlikely to be repeated this time: after exclusion of the 8.4% undecided, the primary votes are Liberal 40.3%, Labor 27.1% and Greens 19.3%.
Sgh1969 @ #1238 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 6:27 pm
Isn’t there a some press thing with Morrison and McCormack tomorrow, Tuesday?
Confessions
Good to see, as you often do, duplicate the links I have already provided.
I note you just copied and pasted with none of your usual insightful one-liners or the like.
sprocket_
says:
Sunday, January 27, 2019 at 6:31 pm
nth, the ALP factions are able to bring together multiple streams of Australian society, workers and progressive thought into coherent groupings. Yes, there are regular conflicts within factions and amongst personalities, however this is expected with a collection of passionate advocates.
Look at any successful democratic party globally and you will find the same.
______________________________________
Which is why Mary Delahunty, who lost the Melb.Ports pre-selection called the process:
“… an indication of nothing more than what a select group of people think. This bears no resemblance to a democratic process.”
nath
I have been there; done this. It is just the way it is.
The Liberal system is much the same; they just don’t have the members to make a sane choice, and this time around the don’t have the people wanting to be candidates. Everything is bottom of the barrel. Bullshit aside that is the way it is.
What is the natural membership of the Liberal party? There is none; it is a hollow party ripe for take-over by some extreme group and that is what happened. The voters are not impressed; we are seeing the last act, and nasty little posts from you are not going to change it.
itza:
Nothing personal against Margo Kingston, I just hope having an embedded journalist in O’s campaign doesn’t backfire on him as it has done with other candidates in the past.
Pegasus
‘Does this occur in every Labor preselection?’
No. The vast majority of the seats are decided by the kind of process frednk describes.
The Senate is a little different.
It’s OK for a party like the Greens which has fewer members, but the sheer number of votes to be counted in a Senate preselection process is enormous. And this means it’s hugely costly, as well.
I’ve been part of a push for grassroots election of Senate candidates for a long time, but I do understand the scope of the task, and I’ve some sympathy for the argument that the money involved would be better spent actually winning seats.
Just to be part of the fun of it – not that my guess has any more weight than a feather – I reckon the news for the LNP has not been all the best so………………..54/46 to the Team of the Angels…………………………..
Gippslander
says:
Sunday, January 27, 2019 at 6:35 pm
Nath @6:01
“It was the Macedonians that stacked Maribyrnong for Shorten.”
I have made a personal vow not to engage with Nath, but every now and then a
flash of comprehension comes to me.
Very early in Nath’s appearance early last year, I asked him why he had such a personal animus against Mr. Shorten. His reply was such a farrago of evasions that I shrugged my shoulders , and made the vow I mentioned.
But now my guess is the nath, or someone near and dear to him was outmanoeuvred in the squalid turmoil of a preselection battle!
If I’m wrong, I’ll just shrug my shoulders, and move on , lamenting a spurious flash of inspiration
__________________________
Gippslander, do you think I’m making up the fact that the Macedonians got Shorten Maribyrnong? Or is it that just by bringing it up I have proven ‘a personal animus’ towards Bill Shorten?
Of course, nothing to do with obstructing the will of the rank and file members.
Pegasus @ #1249 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 6:37 pm
So, you see copy pasting without meaningful context or interpretation and commentary as a bad thing?
zoomster
says:
Sunday, January 27, 2019 at 6:39 pm
Pegasus
‘Does this occur in every Labor preselection?’
No. The vast majority of the seats are decided by the kind of process frednk describes.
_________________________
UHHUHHH…. the vast majority of unwinnable seats you mean. Come on, let’s face it zoomster. You said you were a candidate for an unwinnable seat. If that seat was in play do you think you would have been the candidate?
Confessions @ #1242 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 6:34 pm
https://insidestory.org.au/for-whom-a-bellwether-tolls/
The only thing wrong with Labor at the moment is it isn’t in Govt, yet. So good luck explaining how lies and deception and corruption has kept the Cons clinging to power for the last whatevs and that Shorten will expose them further and redress the gross imbalances in reward for effort so best keep him out of office. Simples really.
The ALP Factions usually function very well and have matured to the point that factions understand to benefit Australia Labor needs to be in power. Not fighting amongst themselves.
The Liberals claim to be a broad church. This is wrong.
Labor is Australia’s broad church political party. It’s made up of people from all walks of life. I have been a proud member all my adult life and I know teachers, accountants, labourers, farmers, skilled tradesmen and multi millionaire business owners and pensioners. All working for a goal of a better Australia.
The factions in the Labor party allow this broad group to achieve that goal.
The Liberals catch and kill their own and that is patently obvious at the moment.
As to the Greens – who cares??
zoomster @ #1244 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 3:34 pm
Oh dear.
Steggall should do well south of the Spit Bridge where there’s very little love for Abbott.
She must have some Mosman connections since she spoke about her love for Balmoral growing up and she’s on the board at Queenwood both south of the spit.
She also mentioned Clontarf (north of the Spit) which of course was the site of the famous assassination attempt on Prince Alfred in 1868.
‘…do you think I’m making up the fact that the Macedonians got Shorten Maribyrnong?’
Well, I’d certainly like to see a bit of proof. I was far more of an insider at the time than I am now (I had a go at Conroy, and told him to leave Crean alone) and I didn’t hear a squeak of that, not even from my friends from the Left.
What I did hear was that Shorten made a point of meeting every member personally.
zoomster @ #1244 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 6:34 pm
So my ‘keeps her distance’ was pretty wide of the mark!
Margo Kingston:
https://twitter.com/margokingston1/status/1089389239794462720
I’ve got no idea who Helen Haines is, but it looks like a very tory panel to me.
“First #qanda panel of the year. Karen Phelps, Helen Haines, Zali Steggall, Rebecca Sharkie and for some balance, Pauline Hanson. Should be fun. @FightingTories #auspol”
GG
Thank you for the opportunity.
Just highlighting the never ending hypocrisy and double standards operating in Laborite PB world.
This is a good question. The few number of my Facebook friends are mostly Liberals and they seem to be so (from their posts and comments) because they believe the Liberal party is the party of low taxes and supporting individual and corporate enterprise and initiative.
This is mostly a fallacy, as we know. But the perception remains.
Helen Haines is McGowan’s annointed successor.
Margo Kingston was good at the SMH, and will always be remembered for bringing this nickname of JWH to the public’s attention..
“Queensland Senator Brandis had yesterday been accused by a former senior Liberal Party official in that state, by statutory declaration, of calling Howard a “lying rodent” over the children overboard scandal, and of complaining that “we’ve got to go off and cover his arse again on this”.
Last night, Brandis countered the accusations with his own statutory declaration denying that he had said these or similar words on the occasion alleged or at all, either in public or private. The significance of signing a statutory declaration is that you swear an oath that what you are saying is true. If it is not, then criminal charges can be brought against you. You are putting your personal integrity on the line.
Brandis submitted his oath in the knowledge that many people in Parliament House and beyond know that he does call Howard “the rodent” in private.”
https://nofibs.com.au/brandis-self-destructs-to-save-howard/
Pegasus @ #1267 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 6:47 pm
That person in the mirror is you, comrade!
zoomster
says:
Sunday, January 27, 2019 at 6:44 pm
‘…do you think I’m making up the fact that the Macedonians got Shorten Maribyrnong?’
Well, I’d certainly like to see a bit of proof. I was far more of an insider at the time than I am now (I had a go at Conroy, and told him to leave Crean alone) and I didn’t hear a squeak of that, not even from my friends from the Left.
___________________________________________
There has been quite a bit written on this, but this summary of events would save a bit of time. Shorten promised Seitz a favour for backing him and he provided it:
In early 2006, before a formal vote was held, Mr Sercombe withdrew from the Maribyrnong race when it became clear he had lost the support of both key trade unions and local powerbrokers. At the time Mr Shorten told the ABC: “I won the preselection by knocking on more doors”.
But Mr Seitz said he controlled more than half of the ALP votes in Maribyrnong, Turkish-born numbers man Hakki Suleyman 20 to 30 per cent, and then state MP Judy Madigan up to ten per cent of the votes.
“Once I declared (support for Shorten) and Hakki, then it was Judy came on board and then Bill just got a few others (votes) that were loose.”
Once Shorten was pre-selected, the party’s powerful administrative committee – with Shorten as president – voted to exempt Seitz from a rule requiring MPs to retire at age 65. Seitz was then the veteran member for Keilor.
Party insiders have confirmed their understanding at the time was that the exemption was a reward for Mr Seitz’s support of Mr Shorten. Mr Seitz denied such a deal.
Oh and the source:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/i-made-shorten-an-mp-says-branch-stacker-20150620-ght2sc.html
Zoomster @ 6:44
“‘…do you think I’m making up the fact that the Macedonians got Shorten Maribyrnong?’
Well, I’d certainly like to see a bit of proof. I was far more of an insider at the time than I am now (I had a go at Conroy, and told him to leave Crean alone) and I didn’t hear a squeak of that, not even from my friends from the Left.
What I did hear was that Shorten made a point of meeting every member personally.”
Thanks for those Illuminating comments., Z
Did you notice that Nath’s reply to mine was an evasion of my speculation the he had some reason for his obvious anti-Shorten animus?
Seitz was a formidable branch stacker in the Western suburbs of Melb where he represented Keilor in the Legislative Assembly.
Former Victorian Premier John Cain said of Seitz, “His parliamentary career is eminently forgettable. I think the most I can say is that he was a backbench warrior who was out there in the local electorate doing a lot of branch-stacking and enjoying it.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Seitz_(politician)
shellbell:
I was amused to see my aunt post on social media in support of Steggall. She’s a lifelong Liberal voter, an Abbott lover but has been turned off by his behaviour the past few years. I have no idea whether she’ll vote for her in the election, but her support for Steggall took me by surprise.
I wonder how many other people there are like her in Warringah…
Ah so nath is like the departed and unlamented ESJ who joined the party and lost out on a vote or issue of some kind and then left the party embittered and vowing revenge.
With nath, we now see another example of a vindictive nothing pursuing a vendetta of no purpose.
Margot Kingston is a citizen journalist and established ‘No Fibs’ website during the 2013 federal election.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margo_Kingston
https://nofibs.com.au/fibs/
She’s not a “Tory” by a long shot. She is a grassroots activist.
Pegasus @ #1278 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 6:56 pm
She’s a Tory.
sprocket_ @ #1270 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 6:49 pm
Plus, she had a few Lateline spots, and was big in the Not Happy John movement, and wrote a book of the same name.
Greensborough Growler
says:
Sunday, January 27, 2019 at 6:56 pm
Ah so nath is like the departed and unlamented ESJ who joined the party and lost out on a vote or issue of some kind and then left the party embittered and vowing revenge.
With nath, we now see another example of a vindictive nothing pursuing a vendetta of no purpose.
_________________________
On the contrary I find it fascinating how actual political power is attained and all the grubby stuff that is not mentioned by people on here. For example I found it intriguing when someone on here mentioned the ways in which Morrison acquired the seat of Cook. I’ve looked it into it further and it is a fascinating tale.
Of course, for those who are not interested in how a Prime Minister acquired his or her seat, please look away and bury your head in the sand.
GG
I salute you too comrade! We must stop meeting like this.
Pegasus @ #1243 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 6:34 pm
Democracy tends to favour the more popular. Guess that doesn’t suit the watermelons…
“…do you think I’m making up the fact that the Macedonians got Shorten Maribyrnong?”
Yes.
The voters of Maribyrnong gave Bill Shorten Maribyrnong.
The idea that Gladys will run a rockstar campaign with Howard as back up is the stuff of Wayne.
Remind me how Wagga Wagga went – 20%, 30% swing? And that was without Howard!
Pegasus @ #1282 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 6:58 pm
If you stop posting rubbish, we wouldn’t need to meet at all!
I have relatives living in Warringah, including Clontarf and Manly.
Business people, but chasing the new economy of disruptive technology, cryptocurrency, global business models. The females can be the fashionistas, with the expenses on plastic surgery and overseas trips. They have money – you have to have money to live in God’s country.
Politically, admittedly from a very small sample, I’d say they are either right wing or very right wing – they pay $500 to sit in the VIP area of Milo Yonapolous seminar – and will always support pro business parties. They do complain about the Brazilians taking over the Corso with their wild parties and propositioning the local gals.
These are not Teals.
“In Australia, the system advantages the two major parties.”
Any system based upon single member electorates creates a two party system.
As for regeneration, the WA Libs, reduced to a rump 2 years ago, have done SFA to renew. I don’t know what process they use to generate or review their policies, but they could learn a lot from Labor when it comes to policy development.
And someone told me recently that there are whispers about recruiting Terry Redman, former Nationals leader to the Liberals so the party has a viable leadership alternative because Ned Flanders is just hopeless. I laughed at the time because the thought is ridiculous. But when the Liberal candidate for its most marginal electorate is a former Labor national president who has also been a member of the Liberal Democrats, anything is possible.
Steggall should have the durability required from her elite sports background and climbing, modestly, the treacherous slopes of the NSW bar.
However, I don’t think she will inspire awe here or elsewhere.
Quick update
PB Newspoll-Poll 2019-02-03
PB mean: ALP 54.1 to 45.9 LNP
PB median: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
No. Of PB Respondents: 21
55 / 45 Harry “Snapper” Organs
54 / 46 klasib
54 / 46 Tricot
ItzaDream @ #1285 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 7:02 pm
Gladys and the pipsqueak!
sprocket:
Your relatives in Warringah sound like half of mine!
I’ve been labelled a “watermelon”.
I’ve been labelled a “Teal Green”.
I get talked about every day, as is Nath, RD and DTT.
If we weren’t around someone else would be in the sights of the usual suspects.
You just can’t stop thinking about us.
And well done Mrs GG, my sentiments entirely with those afore.
Langer: Trevor, I want another Western Australian in the team.
Hohns: Justin, I know I am a doormat but I am not picking Mitch.
Langer: Oh alright, Stoinis?
Hohns: Sure.
sprocket_
Read a truly LOL article where Brandis went to some length explaining the very important difference between calling him ‘The Rodent’ vs calling him ‘A Rodent’.