Departure lounge

The retirement of another senior Liberal in a loseable seat, and a poll suggesting Labor could pull off a boilover in Higgins.

The West Australian today reports that Human Services Minister Michael Keenan will be joining the exodus at the election, creating a vacancy in his northern suburbs Perth seat of Stirling. The seat was long highly marginal, but Keenan has held it on mostly comfortable margins since he gained the seat from Labor in 2004.

There is also a uComms/ReachTEL poll in The Australian from the scene of the week’s other big retirement announcements, the Melbourne seat of Higgins. Conducted on Thursday from a sample of 860 for interests who wish to bring about the return of Peter Costello, the poll finds Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48. This compares with a 10.7% margin for retiring Liberal member Kelly O’Dwyer in Liberals-versus-Labor terms, although it’s perfectly in line with how the electorate voted at the election. It was in fact the Greens who finished second in 2016, but the poll suggests that is unlikely to be repeated this time: after exclusion of the 8.4% undecided, the primary votes are Liberal 40.3%, Labor 27.1% and Greens 19.3%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,544 thoughts on “Departure lounge”

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  1. ‘It’s over for him’: Right-wingers furious as ‘biggest wimp’ Trump caves to Democrats on border wall

    Right-wing Twitter users lost it Friday after Donald Trump announced that he was signing a three-week stopgap funding bill that does not include immediate funding for his proposed border wall with Mexico.

    “Trump is a broken man,” Mike Cernovich, a far-right figure known for touting the Pizzagate conspiracy theory in which Democrats allegedly ran a child sex ring out of a DC pizza restaurant, tweeted. “It’s over for him.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/right-wingers-furious-biggest-wimp-trump-caves-democrats-border-wall/

  2. Conservative shames Trump for ‘stabbing the base in the heart’ by caving into Democrats for his wall at the US-Mexico border.

    “Right now as everyone’s reacting to this, right-wing media is going off over this. How will the Sean Hannity’s of the world defend Trump on this?” CNN’s Brooke Baldwin asked political reporter Eliza Collins.

    “I don’t know if they can. On my way over here I was texting with a conservative who was close to the White House and he said that this ‘stabbed the base in the heart.’ This was Trump’s biggest promise to the base. They really wanted it and he’s completely failed to do that and he failed to do it to Nancy Pelosi,” she responded.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/conservative-shames-trump-for-stabbing-the-base-in-the-heart-on-a-deal-with-no-border-wall-funding/

  3. ‘Pelosi should give SOTU because she’s obviously running the country’: Dem Congress member

    A Congress member celebrated Donald Trump caving to Democrats on his border wall shutdown by suggesting House Speaker Nancy Pelosi should be the one to give a State of the Union.

    Pelosi “should give the State of the Union since she’s obviously the one running the country,” Rep. Karen Bass (D-CA) tweeted after the president announced he’d be signing a three-week stopgap government spending bill that does not include funding for his wall.

    Axios’ Jonathan Swan noted that a former White House official said something remarkably similar.

    “Trump looks pathetic,” the official told Swan. “He just ceded his presidency to Nancy Pelosi.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/pelosi-give-sotu-shes-obviously-running-country-dem-congress-member/

  4. Georgina Woods
    ‏@georgefwoods
    8m8 minutes ago

    Australia giving the CEO of Oil Search a Companion of the Order of Australia speaks volumes about this country’s relationship to PNG and our supine adoration of mining at the expense of people and environment >>

  5. Trumpworld fears Roger Stone will flip on Trump to ‘recast himself as the hero’ in Russia probe

    Roger Stone is President Donald Trump’s oldest and, up to now, most loyal political adviser.

    But because Stone knows Trump so well, he also knows that the president has no loyalty, according to Trump insiders quoted by Vanity Fair.

    After being indicted by special counsel Robert Mueller, Stone has remained defiant, saying there is “no circumstance” in which he will testify against Trump.

    But inside Trumpworld, that promise is seen as hollow.

    “I could see Roger flipping pretty quickly,” a Republican close to Trump told Vanity Fair.

    “Stone knows Donald isn’t loyal. He calls him ‘Mr. Ingratitude,’” said another.

    Stone is “as predictable as an unguided missile,” the report says, and while Trump “knows Roger wants to be a martyr,” they don’t know how that will play out.

    “If given the chance to provide a John Dean moment that would ensure his place in the history books, it’s also possible Stone could recast himself as the hero of the Russia probe—while lightening his sentence,” the report says.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/trumpworld-fears-roger-stone-will-flip-trump-recast-hero-russia-probe/

  6. Thanks BK and phoenixRed.

    Stone has said he will not testify against Trump.

    “I will plead not guilty to these charges. I will defeat them in court,” he said to a crowd of about 300 reporters, supporters and detractors. Some in the crowd jeered and chanted “Lock him up!” Others shouted support for Stone.

    “There is no circumstance whatsoever under which I will bear false witness against the president, nor will I make up lies to ease the pressure on myself. I look forward to being fully and completely vindicated,” Stone said. “I will not testify against the president, because I would have to bear false witness.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/longtime-trump-adviser-roger-stone-indicted-by-special-counsel-in-russia-investigation/2019/01/25/93a4d8fa-2093-11e9-8e21-59a09ff1e2a1_story.html?utm_term=.cd6556e72c70

  7. C@tmomma @ #47 Saturday, January 26th, 2019 – 7:45 am

    daretotread,
    Could you stop being a smart arse, just for one day!?!

    Now, if you really knew your stuff about Russia, and Venezuela, you would know that Russia are supporting Maduro, and own all of Venezuela’s Oil assets. America are supporting the Opposition Leader in Venezuela. So I’d just watch this space if I were you, instead of issuing your usual and predictable Putin apologia. With a side-serving of snark at those of us who haven’t been bewitched by Putin’s pecs as you appear to have been. 🙂

    Cat

    No my friend.

    You carry on about me calling people stupid.

    Well I am simply pointing out the obvious.

    If it was wrong for Russia to interfere in the US election in support of Trump, it is wrong t\for the USA to interfere in Venezuelan elections in support of Guido. This should be simple enough to understand even for you.

    it does not really matter if Maduro is running on all fouirs barking like a dog, it is a sovereign nation and not the business of Trump or anyone in the USA to support anyone other than the elected President and certainly NOT the guy who failed in his election bid.

    But no. As i expected you carried on with the same US exceptionalist drive3l that led to the Iraq war and the Vietnam war, Libya etc. The USA thinks IT can interfere in the government of other nations but if anyone else posts a tweet or two or a Facebook campaign it is as if the world as they knew it collapsed.

    In this case not only is it your hated POTUS trump carrying on like a pork chop it also has me horrified because it is yet another trigger for WWIII, given both China and Russia support Venezuela.

    You comment confirmed my opinion,. You lack self awareness enough to identify rank hypocrisy. Yes of course it is about oil, but it is also about Russian naval bases (and Chinese). The US is reacting just like Russia does about NATO bases in Ukraine or Georgia or Poland. Same, same, but you and most others seem unable to see this.

    By the way, Maduro seems to be incompetent but he WAS elected, and as I gather has the support of the urban poor.

  8. Evan McMullin‏Verified account @Evan_McMullin

    Now the question is who ordered Steve Bannon to reach out to Roger Stone about Wikileaks?

    Rick Wilson‏Verified account @TheRickWilson

    Rick Wilson Retweeted Evan McMullin

    6′ 3″…239-ish. Big on Twitter.

  9. Psyclaw @ #4 Saturday, January 26th, 2019 – 8:34 am

    Lizzie @7.29am

    Quite right about Ms Bishop
    1. Hard worker who will put in Coalition “restoration” work? No
    2. Talented leader and policy developer? No
    3. Moderate capable of peacemaking in and out of party? No (claws expert)

    So I hope she becomes LOTO because she is useless.

    Dear Abby

    My very, very favourite daughter thinks that Ms. Bishop may be the pretty one and although she (daughter) is not sure about that, I cannot bring myself to reveal the awful truth that the subject under discussion may be just handbags, jewelry and FM shoes.

    What should I do ❓

    👜💎👠

  10. Roger Stone Draws the Judge Who Threw Paul Manafort in Jail

    Self-anointed political dirty trickster Roger Stone will have to tread carefully as he prepares to defend against charges of obstructing Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s probe and lying about his communications with WikiLeaks.

    The no-nonsense judge assigned Stone’s case has already demonstrated that she’s got little patience for defendants who misbehave. U.S. District Judge Amy Berman Jackson issued a gag order on Donald Trump’s former campaign manager Paul Manafort and later revoked his bail and threw him in jail.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-25/roger-stone-draws-the-judge-who-threw-paul-manafort-in-jail?srnd=premium

  11. Can you imagine the unhingement from President Man Baby if the House instigated its own fact finding investigation alongside Mueller’s? The more public the better.

    If Trump was directing campaign aides to intercede with Stone, and by extension, WikiLeaks, that “would plainly constitute another piece — a big one — in the mosaic of evidence showing that Trump was committing campaign-related crimes in coordination with Russia to rig the presidential election in his favor by knowingly weaponizing stolen information against his opponent,” says constitutional scholar Laurence Tribe. “That mosaic could certainly establish a high crime warranting Impeachment. But I still believe that an intense and public fact-finding process by the House, starting now, needs to precede any formal decision on impeachment, without which the essential public consensus favoring Trump’s removal won’t emerge.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/01/25/what-did-president-know-when-did-he-know-it/?utm_term=.baecc0ef10bf

  12. daretotread,
    You make a lot of heroic assumptions about my positions based upon your own wild imagination more than anything else, so I think I’ll leave you to it and not bother trying to reason with mental jello any more. 🙂

  13. Rick Wilson’s latest.

    They were two ways Roger Stone’s morning arrest could have played out.

    The first scenario is the one Roger rehearsed in his mind a hundred times; his attorney would have been notified well in advance, giving America’s number one parody cartoon supervillain time to assemble some typically foppish confection: perhaps a purple morning coat, spats, hand-tooled lemur-skin calf boots, a jaunty top hat, a monocle, and an exotic cravat tied in a knot typically used only in vigorous German fesselspiele games. He would stride toward the waiting federales with a louche swagger, his bejeweled walking stick in hand. He would smile for the assembled cameras and toss off some bon mot that communicated both searing contempt and breezy insouciance.

    Instead, a second, real-world scenario obtained. A frowzy, shocked Roger Stone woke to the sound of “FBI, WARRANT! OPEN THE DOOR!” in the predawn hours. The FBI may not be getting paid, by that didn’t stop them from rolling hard on Stone’s lair, arresting him, and booking him into the Broward County jail. Stern but polite FBI agents arrested Stone on seven counts of lying to Congress and Special Counsel Robert Mueller.

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/roger-stone-welcome-to-the-barrel-cosplaying-supervillain-meets-robert-muellers-real-life-feds?source=twitter&via=desktop

  14. House Intelligence Committee To Release All Russia Probe Transcripts

    Representative Adam Schiff, speaking on behalf of the House Intelligence Committee, announced Friday that documents from the committee’s investigation will be handed over to the Special Counsel. All transcripts of interviews in the probe into possible Russian interference in the 2016 Presidential election will be released, as the “first order of business.” He also warned that there will be no tolerance of anyone attempting to prevent witnesses from testifying.

    Schiff released the statement Friday afternoon, speaking of the arrest and indictment of Roger Stone, a long-time Trump associate, and noting that an unnamed senior campaign official had reportedly been directed to contact Stone in 2016 about the release of emails from Clinton’s private server.

    Adam Schiff @RepAdamSchiff

    Most significant in the Stone indictment is new info that a senior campaign official was “directed” in July 2016 to contact Mr. Stone about additional Wikileaks releases.

    This was at same time candidate Trump was publicly calling for Russia’s help in obtaining Clinton’s emails.

    https://hillreporter.com/house-intelligence-committee-to-release-all-russia-probe-transcripts-22451

  15. Sky News Australia

    .@PeterDutton_MP: People have to realise that Chris Bowen is a puppet of Paul Keating, he wants to deliver Keating’s unfinished business – it would be a disaster across the country.

    Roman Quaedvlieg

    16m16 minutes ago

    I’m not one for sledging or counter-sledging, but if Bowen were standing at the crease when Dutton threw that one, there’s a pretty snappy retort there which has something to do with preferring to be a Keating puppet than a Howard one.

  16. Democrats released Stone’s transcripts to Mueller. Yep, elections definitely matter.

    Stone lied in Congress because he believed that the House Republicans would sit on his transcript and he would never be held to account. Those lies met with the hard reality that elections have consequences. Donald Trump incinerated 40 GOP House seats, and so the Democratic majority shared the transcript the GOP had suppressed with Mueller. It wasn’t partisan; they had evidence of Stone committing multiple crimes in the form of lying to Congress.

  17. ‘fess,
    The bit I haven’t been able to reconcile in my own mind is how was Trump so confident that he would win with Russia’s help? He only beat Hillary Clinton by 80000-odd votes in strategic areas to aid the Electoral College victory. Was the work of Putin and Wikileaks that good that they could guarantee the victory to him? Also, what about James Comey’s intervention with his October Surprise of re-opening the FBI investigation into Clinton’s emails? That had a big negative effect on her campaign and surely Russia didn’t encourage that? It was as a result of Anthony Weiner’s weiner investigation.

  18. “My very, very favourite daughter thinks that Ms. Bishop may be the pretty one

    The one with the butterfly avatar who comes here occasionally to post rubbish about boats, batts and Bill Shorten?

  19. Peter Reith? Really?

    Virginia Trioli
    ‏@LaTrioli
    12m12 minutes ago

    (My friend) didn’t receive an honour. Again. A lifetime of volunteering. But a bunch of politicians who were well-paid for the work they were supposed to do did. Change the rules. Change the criteria. #Australianhonours

  20. He also warned that there will be no tolerance of anyone attempting to prevent witnesses from testifying.

    Did you hear that Donald Trump? 🙂

  21. Steve Davis

    What about Christopher Pyne? BK was reporting some while back IIRC that polling in his seat was pretty bad and he could lose at the next poll. Would he have anything cushy lined up in easy street?

    On another matter is Hannah Beazley the daughter/relation of one Kim ‘Bomber’ Beazley?

  22. Firstly, my thoughts today are with the indigenous peoples of this land.

    Secondly, what fine news to start the day off with the continuing collapse of the LNP and also Team Trump.

  23. Sgh

    Id put Pyne down as a retirement post election.

    That being said surely he has enough enemies within the Liberal party now that would love to help him lose his seat.

  24. Kyle Griffin‏Verified account @kylegriffin1

    Prosecutor Andrew Weissman said in court today that Mueller’s office no longer believes Paul Manafort should get any credit for his cooperation when he’s sentenced next month.

    Former Trump campaign chief Paul Manafort in court hours after his ex-business partner Roger Stone is busted in Mueller case

    •Manafort’s previously scheduled hearing relates to Mueller’s claims that the Republican operative repeatedly lied to the special counsel’s office after pleading guilty to multiple crimes related to his work for pro-Russia politicians in Ukraine.
    •Mueller says those lies violated Manafort’s plea agreement with the special counsel’s office. The alleged lies included Manafort’s communications with a longtime business associate, Konstantin Kilimnik, who is allegedly a Russian agent.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/25/trump-campaign-chief-paul-manafort-in-court-after-roger-stone-arrest.html

  25. I don’t recall Bishop doing too well during the Howard years. Post that her serial loyalty was what got her through, coupled with bitchiness above & beyond the call when Gillard was PM. Forgiven all by an obliging media, she then proceeded to model handbags on the international stage for some years whilst reading scripts provided her by policy professionals. When that gig ended she just seemed to hang around & then left in a huff when she didn’t score another good lurk.
    Not much in there to indicate a capacity for rebuilding.

  26. C@tmomma @ 9:21 am

    You assume he wanted to win and not just set up an money-making outrage machine.

    He overshot and now has to deal with a range on consequences none of his ‘team’ planned for.

  27. C@t:

    I don’t think they were confident they’d win. I reckon they never expected to win, but maybe once Trump was the candidate they decided to go all out.

    Rick Wilson has this however:

    It defies reason that Trump’s sudden, constant mentions of Wikileaks on the campaign trail in 2016 didn’t come from direct conversations with Stone. Trump would have loved the skullduggery aspects of it, the idea that an electoral cheat code would help him bring down Hillary Clinton.

    Perhaps selling the idea of engaging Wikileaks was a sop to Trump’s vanity? Or Trump knew Wikileaks was in the bag with Putin and, trying to keep in Putin’s good books, decided to engage them.

  28. C@tmomma says: Saturday, January 26, 2019 at 9:21 am

    ‘fess,

    The bit I haven’t been able to reconcile in my own mind is how was Trump so confident that he would win with Russia’s help? He only beat Hillary Clinton by 80000-odd votes in strategic areas to aid the Electoral College victory.

    *******************************************************************

    C@tmomma – I obviously don’t know what Robert Mueller knows – but YOUR question is the KEY to all this.

    It is widely held view but those with better information than me that as the 2016 election results played out, observers on both sides were shocked that Donald Trump won four key swing states – Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin – where Hillary Clinton had been heavily favored. She had seemingly locked up Florida with early voting alone, and the other three have all reliably gone blue for a generation. But more suspicious than the fact that Trump won these states was the fact that he won them all by the same margin.

    Maybe one day we will know if this is just a wild theory or that something/somehow was “rigged” and Trump MAY have won the Presidency by many *factors* other than what appeared to be at the time

  29. Fozzie Logic @ #31 Saturday, January 26th, 2019 – 4:08 am

    It looks like you can’t just pray the gay away 🙁

    Man who worked as top ‘conversion therapist’ comes out as gay

    Not necessarily, he obviously didn’t apply the therapy to himself. 😆

    Just shows how willing some people are to act in their own self interest despite what they know.

    This practice should be made illegal and anyone advocating or performing it criminally charged.

    There is no excuse for it.

  30. Am i right is today a day that means something quite insignificant to those who live in the other original Australian colony, the inferior penal colony one, where today some dudes moved from one part of Sydney to another part of Sydney because the first place sucked?

    Given NZ was part of this colony, and we in WA in the superior original colony, one that wasn’t just a prison, were not ever part of this colony, are you clowns sharing with your New Zealand parts of your original colony? They seemed to do a lot better after they got away from you’all.

    Funny too that SA likes to claim it wasn’t part of this original colony but the maps suggest they were, guess it is just a bad memory for them.

  31. Didn’t I read a while back that it was time the Refugee Convention was upgraded?

    Stride and his family have applied for asylum in Australia but have been rejected. The Refugee Review Tribunal’s decision, sections of which have been seen by Guardian Australia, acknowledged the family had real fears, but said they could not be given protection.

    “The delegate found that although the applicants’ claims referred to an extremely powerful political figure in the Russian Federation, the nature of the claims against him are not political in nature,” the decision said.

    “It is apparent that the danger they fear, which the delegate accepted as being real, is for reasons other than those intended by the grounds laid out in the Refugees Convention.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/26/british-man-and-family-plead-for-asylum-after-hiding-in-australia-in-fear-of-russian-threats

  32. Steve777 @ #72 Saturday, January 26th, 2019 – 9:22 am

    “My very, very favourite daughter thinks that Ms. Bishop may be the pretty one

    The one with the butterfly avatar who comes here occasionally to post rubbish about boats, batts and Bill Shorten?

    My daughter has no idea who any of the Masters of the Universe are. She knows the things that are important. Pink clothes, puppies, bunnies, friends and family.

    I occasionally attempt to talk about the state of the nation but am usually left singing that old favourite.

    What Kind of Fool am I ❓ 😵😵😵😵😵

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_BGL-a_FrHk

    Meanwhile we are left with The Roar of the Greasepaint – The Smell of the Crowd.

  33. But more suspicious than the fact that Trump won these states was the fact that he won them all by the same margin.

    Really? I did not know that.

  34. phoenixRED @ #85 Saturday, January 26th, 2019 – 9:38 am

    C@tmomma says: Saturday, January 26, 2019 at 9:21 am

    ‘fess,

    The bit I haven’t been able to reconcile in my own mind is how was Trump so confident that he would win with Russia’s help? He only beat Hillary Clinton by 80000-odd votes in strategic areas to aid the Electoral College victory.

    *******************************************************************

    C@tmomma – I obviously don’t know what Robert Mueller knows – but YOUR question is the KEY to all this.

    It is widely held view but those with better information than me that as the 2016 election results played out, observers on both sides were shocked that Donald Trump won four key swing states – Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin – where Hillary Clinton had been heavily favored. She had seemingly locked up Florida with early voting alone, and the other three have all reliably gone blue for a generation. But more suspicious than the fact that Trump won these states was the fact that he won them all by the same margin.

    Maybe one day we will know if this is just a wild theory or that something/somehow was “rigged” and Trump MAY have won the Presidency by many *factors* other than what appeared to be at the time

    Yes, but; it is not as though Hillary & her team were not warned again and again about those states, by Bernie and his team because of what they were learning at the ground game level, and quite a few other parties. All screaming out to go campaign in those four states.

    But Hillary knew best and ignored all the advice. Only herself to blame.

  35. Speculation was correct – Indigenous Affairs Minister Nigel Scullion has told the Prime Minister he is resigning from the Senate #auspol

  36. The sober perspective about the Shutdown:

    Democratic Coalition
    @TheDemCoalition
    ·
    19m
    “Trump used every tactic he knows: a last-minute veto threat, aggressive tweets, a prime-time address from the Oval Office, a visit to the border, walking out of a high-stakes negotiation, and it didn’t work.”

  37. Not forgetting Peter Reith and his son’s services to government phone cards. More Howard era corruption.

    ………… after it was revealed that Workplace Relations Minister Peter Reith had racked up massive phone debts on a service he says he hadn’t used for years.

    The scandal broke in the Canberra Times on Tuesday October 10, nearly a year after Finance discovered the $50,000 fraud. The very next day, the Prime Minister announced that DPP Damian Bugg had decided to prosecute no-one over the fraud. He also said he had asked the Solicitor-General, David Bennett QC, to advise whether Reith was liable for the $50,000.

    This reference to Bennett was made much of by Howard as proof of his good faith. Remember both he and Reith, when the story broke, said there was no obligation for Reith to pay.

    Well guess what? Way back in May, Finance wrote to Reith saying it would issue him a debit notice for the full amount, based on legal advice that he WAS liable. That advice was given by a legal officer in the department. (Finance today refused to release that advice.)

    Reith said no. Instead, he sent Finance a cheque for $950 a week later, which he claimed was the cost of calls made by his son Paul, to whom he unlawfully gave the card details to make private calls. On October nine, the day before the story broke, Finance again wrote to Reith demanding he pay up as legally required.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-great-telecard-coverup-20001124-gdhtrz.html

  38. You know, if I was Roger Stone, I wouldn’t be standing shoulder to shoulder with Donald Trump publicly pledging to keep on lying for him.

  39. Bevan Shields tweets….

    I believe cabinet minister Nigel Scullion told other MPs he was quitting politics before he even advised Nationals leader Michael McCormack #auspol

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