BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor

BludgerTrack returns from hibernation, albeit with only one new poll result to play with.

The return of Essential Research provided the BludgerTrack mill with its first grist for the new year, but the model is at its least robust when it only has one data point to play with after a long gap. This means BludgerTrack strongly follows the lead of a poll that was less bad for the Coalition than their usual form, resulting in a substantial reduction in Labor’s still commanding lead on two-party preferred. Labor is also down six on the seat projection – one in each mainland state and two in Queensland. The Essential poll also included a new set of numbers for the leadership ratings, and these produced a weak result for Bill Shorten that has blunted his recent improving trend. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,129 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor”

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  2. Mavis Smith

    Fast change can be done by Labor. It has experienced competent ministers.

    What Labor needs to do is reform the media laws so that the media cannot blame Federal Labor for Queensland industrial law like they did with the Pink Batts saga.
    The media would have with Canada style laws had to have made the point that it was Queensland industrial laws that failed not the pink batts roll out.

    I do not for one second think Labor is going to have reckless incompetence happening.

  3. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-22/pm-morrison-and-bill-shorten-accused-of-ignoring-vulnerable-nt/10733728

    Overcrowded housing, poor school attendance, rife unemployment and health conditions akin to those in the third world are commonplace in the Northern Territory’s West Daly, which is statistically the second most disadvantaged region in Australia.

    Considering this ranking, the West Daly Regional Council’s mayor said he “watched with interest” during the whirlwind visits of both Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten last week, who were in the region to kick off the 2019 federal election campaign and promise a cash windfall of about $220 million for Kakadu National Park.
    While in the NT, Mr Shorten also managed to offer up $5 million to upgrade a pool in the city of Palmerston, which already had a new waterpark built down the road in 2012.

    West Daly mayor John Wilson said his region, down dirt roads more than 300 kilometres west of Darwin, was left “out of sight, out of mind” during the recent political drop-ins.

    Mmmm, perhaps there are not enough swinging voters to bribe with promises.

  4. guytaur @ #2448 Tuesday, January 22nd, 2019 – 6:19 am

    Mavis Smith

    Fast change can be done by Labor. It has experienced competent ministers.

    What Labor needs to do is reform the media laws so that the media cannot blame Federal Labor for Queensland industrial law like they did with the Pink Batts saga.
    The media would have with Canada style laws had to have made the point that it was Queensland industrial laws that failed not the pink batts roll out.

    I do not for one second think Labor is going to have reckless incompetence happening.

    You keep going on about media laws, is this Labor policy?

  5. Barney

    No idea however media laws need changing in Australia.

    Especially now with the latest concentration of media.

    In my view Labor will not get fair reporting until we have laws like those of Canada that have kept Murdoch out of that country. No one can say Canada does not have free and fair media and be credible

  6. jenauthor, clem wants to fight. They are ‘bemusing’ themselves at the expense of the bludgers. The best thing to do is thoroughly ignore them. Time is too short to waste any of it on clem.

  7. guytaur @ #2451 Tuesday, January 22nd, 2019 – 6:23 am

    Barney

    No idea however media laws need changing in Australia.

    Especially now with the latest concentration of media.

    In my view Labor will not get fair reporting until we have laws like those of Canada that have kept Murdoch out of that country. No one can say Canada does not have free and fair media.

    So why do you talk about it as though it is?

    You talk about Labor making changes, but then talk about things that Labor has no plans to change.

    It’s not going to happen in the short term even if they adopted the position later.

  8. jenauthor
    Tuesday, January 22nd, 2019 – 9:53 am
    Comment #2432

    Excellent item.
    (I think KayJay has read my latest?) Quite true – Warrior King – available from Amazon.com.au

    I have no problem with Romance novels and one of my favourites in TV is As Time Goes By .
    I enjoy various books –
    •Suspense fiction. Crime fiction. Detective fiction. …
    •Thriller. Mystery fiction. Legal thriller. Medical thriller. …
    War – History – Science.

    As a youth I loved the books of F.J. Thwaites and his successors still enchant me – a good book can let me be angry, be filled with wonder, be sad enough to cry – to want the next chapter and so on. In this regard you do very well. I don’t remember Thwaites using the F word which has found its way into modern stories. (OK with me).

    In summary – Carry on Nurse.

    P.S. My pet hate (dislike) is the authors of the tough detective story whose hero carries a gun.
     Damn your eyes Cap’n – everybody has read or seen where the asshole drill instructor has the raw recruits marching about clutching their (individual) crutches in one hand and their rifle in the other chanting.

    This is my rifle – this is my gun

    So there – police carry a sidearm, a revolver, a semi auto pistol, a Glock, a Sig, a Smith and Wesson model ❓ etc (shorthand for a SA pistol). The gun is for unlimbering during the increasingly often intervals at the end of various set pieces.

    Turned into a rant.

    Sorry Jen – be kind to yourself – others can make their own arrangements. 😇

  10. Barney

    I keep talking about needing media law reform precisely because Labor has no public policy on this.

    I do not talk as if Labor has a policy on this. e.g. I have not said I like Labor’s new media reform policy thats like Canada’s. Great initiative!!

    So stop trying to verbal me.

  11. Woke Hadda Gutfull
    ‏ @mavsmum
    16h16 hours ago

    morriscum and littleproud in full meltdown over @AustralianLabor scientific committee to look at the disaster in Darling/Menindee.
    They are in this up to their eye-balls and trying to discredit the committee.This will be very revealing indeed

  13. guytaur @ #2460 Tuesday, January 22nd, 2019 – 6:33 am

    Barney

    I keep talking about needing media law reform precisely because Labor has no public policy on this.

    I do not talk as if Labor has a policy on this. e.g. I have not said I like Labor’s new media reform policy thats like Canada’s. Great initiative!!

    So stop trying to verbal me.

    Then can I suggest you keep the issues separate, your writing would be much clearer that way.

    Labor Party reform and guytaur reform are two very different things. 🙂

  14. Barney

    I was talking about what I think Labor should do. Its my opinion you don’t have to agree but thats what I think Labor should do and was saying so.

  15. Barney

    I was talking about what I think Labor should do. Its my opinion you don’t have to agree but thats what I think Labor should do and was saying so.

    Maybe if you think of me as giving an opinion from outside and not as a party member of any party you will get less confused in future

  16. jen

    And clem shows much the same ignorance about how policy is developed.

    The Vic Labor party has twenty policy committees, all made up of ‘ordinary’ members, elected at State Conference. So the Education Committee is made up almost exclusively by teachers, the Health one by health professionals, and so on. (I was lucky that the one I was on, as it dealt rural and regional issues, allowed me to dip my toes into basically any policy area I liked).

    These committees do extensive consultation with the community. They are obligated to hold regular public forums to get community feedback, and are regularly visited by experts in their particular field (so CSIRO asked to be allowed to address our committee, Craig Ingram contacted us re the Snowy River, Goulburn Murray water conducted field trips for us, and so on). Usually the relevant Minister/s send a representative along to provide expert input, chase up inquiries for information, and to get a feel for the direction the committee is heading in. (It’s not uncommon for a very good idea to be implemented almost immediately).

    The committees then draw up policy proposals, which go to State Conference for debate. It’s not unknown – in fact it’s quite common – for policies to be sent back for further development, or for two committees to be asked to liaise as they’re looking at the same issue. (It’s also not uncommon for people to be on a number of committees, creating opportunities for cross fertilisation – I was asked to be on Health, Education, Local Government and the Environment committees at various times, but had to refuse because of the distance I am from Melbourne).

    Once a policy is passed by SC, it is officially Labor party policy. However, the political arm of the party then reviews the whole plethora of policies put forward and tries to weave them into a coherent document to take to the election.

    So it’s perfectly possible for anyone – not even party members – to influence Labor policy (fun fact: Daniel Andrews joined the Labor party because, as a Uni student, he approached various parties with a policy proposal. Labor put him in touch with the relevant policy committee, he rocked up, gave his spiel and then discovered a few months later that his proposal was being enacted. Similarly, Craig Ingram was told to take the Snowy River issue to our committee, we recommended his proposals to the Shadow Water Minister, and it became Labor policy).

    As I said earlier, the process means, however, that a policy you propose can be altered quite radically before it’s implemented, many other people can take credit for it along the way, and it’s also common to find a policy you’ve proposed was implemented without your knowledge.

  17. …federally, it’s harder to go through this kind of process, as you can’t expect ordinary members to fly to a common meeting point. In this case, the various State policy bodies try and feed information through. Our committee, for example, regularly got to review federal proposals in areas such as agriculture and the environment.

  18. https://outline.com/RBKSnm

    Hydrogen announcement in Qld today. Damn fine idea and actually, putting funding into what could be a major emerging industry for Australia, now, ticks all te boxes for me. Would be a major underpinning of ANY Climate Change policy. The possibilities for Oz are wide ranging and very big.

    Kind of thing that down the track i’d expect W.A. to benefit from as well as there is lots of port / loading / unloading infrastructure in the Pilbara, as well as much renewable energy potential.

  19. ..as for ‘it’s easy to write fiction’ I suggest anyone who believes this to sit down for two hours today and try it.

    Most people groan when you ask them to write a page…

  20. I notice that the term “tipping point” is appearing more and more in articles about global warming. I also note that almost every time there is a new article, it turns out that things are much worse, and changing much faster, than we ever anticipated.

    The real problem with “tipping points” is that you may know they are coming, but you can only actually identify them in hindsight. I think it is quite likely we have already passed one or more 🙁

    Here is the latest article to mention them …

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/21/greenland-ice-melting-faster-than-scientists-previously-thought-study

    “We’re going to see faster and faster sea level rise for the foreseeable future. Once you hit that tipping point, the only question is: How severe does it get?”
    …
    The world’s largest expanse of ice is now losing around 219bn tonnes of ice a year, a trajectory that would contribute more than 25cm to total global sea level rise by 2070.

    This is disaster. To put it into perspective that might mean something to Australians, it means that many of the beaches your children currently swim at will be nothing more than a memory before they turn 60. These beaches have been so encroached by coastal development that there is simply no way for the beach to recede a little in line with the rising waters. Properties will have to be abandoned, and/or they will have to have seawalls built. This has already been happening (in a very small way) on Sydney’s northern beaches. Soon, it will begin happening in a big way, and in many more places Australia-wide.

    And, like many of the consequences of global warming, this will not happen in a slow, gradual manner that would allow for adaption, planning and mitigation. Instead, it will happen in increasingly violent increments, with record storm surges every few years that will completely strip the sand off a beach, and undermine or wash away coastal properties.

    How bad do things have to get before people realize that “business as usual” is simply “slow suicide”?

  22. Compare the pair:

    Bill Shorten announces a new industry for Queensland.

    Scott Morrison announces ANOTHER Captain Cook Memorial.
    Which is actually to commemorate the circumnavigation of Australia by Matthew Flinders, which, when the cognitive dissonance was pointed out to Morrison was met with this as a justification….Matthew Flinders was re-enacting Captain Cook’s voyage.
    🙄

  23. zoomster @ #2466 Tuesday, January 22nd, 2019 – 6:45 am

    …

    Once a policy is passed by SC, it is officially Labor party policy. However, the political arm of the party then reviews the whole plethora of policies put forward and tries to weave them into a coherent document to take to the election.

    …

    That is a point that many people ignore especially when they focus on a single issue.

    Does it fit?

    Something may be good in one area, but have negative consequences in another.

    That’s the power of a Party, being able to have a considered platform.

  26. Yes, it took over 10 years for my policy idea to become an announced policy this year, and then only in part. Which I am grateful for. And I admit, to fully implement the policy would be expensive. If a just thing to do. 🙂

  27. Quoll @ #2143 Monday, January 21st, 2019 – 3:07 pm

    Some questioning in comments whether Labor will just come out and say they won’t honour any contract on taxpayers money straight up.
    Let alone dealing with the states and dumping this issue on the NSW Libs just before an election as well

    Wind, solar eat further into coal supply on NEM, as Coalition pushes for more coal supply on NEM
    https://reneweconomy.com.au/wind-solar-eat-further-into-coal-supply-on-nem-as-coalition-pushes-for-more-coal-supply-on-nem-42902/

    Australia’s Coalition government has renewed its push to bring new coal-fired power capacity onto the national grid, even as the latest energy sector emissions audit reveals that solar and wind power – for the first time ever – are cutting into black coal power supply.

    A question for those in the now about this story, if you’d indulge me.

    “According the The Oz, industry will submit plans on Wednesday, including a proposal by coal baron Trevor St Baker to develop Australia’s first high efficiency, low ­emissions coal plants in Victoria and NSW as part of an ambitious $6 billion plan.

    St Baker’s plan, the paper says is to build a 1300MW, $4 billion coal-fired plant in Victoria’s Latrobe Valley at the site of the recently shuttered Hazelwood power station (see Tweet above for Vic energy minister’s thoughts on that), and a $2 billion 660MW HELE coal plant in NSW – either at AGL’s Liddell site or at the site of St Baker’s own Vales Point A.”

    How could the federal Government enter into an *unconditional* contract for the power output of such a plant? In the absence of information confirming otherwise, I’ll assume that these proposed plants exist nowhere but the imagination of the proponents and in the proposals they’ve submitted to the Federal Government. To get such a plant off the ground would take years of planning and require numerous state and federal government approvals before construction could start, giving a likely construction start date beyond the 2022 election, nevermind the 2019 one.

    The numerous required permits would allow a hostile state government and/or a potential future hostile Federal Labor Government to impose conditions on the plant which would make it uneconomic for the proponent regardless of any guarantee around carbon emissions.

    My thinking is that this is just a play for the L/NP base and the proposed plant will never actually be built. I most sincerely hope that any guarantee signed by the current Federal Government does not facilitate compensation to the proponent in the even the plant does not get off the ground for any reason whatsoever.

  31. Writing fiction is difficult. Writing even a few pages that others want to read is exacting in itself. Producing an entire book that will attract readers is a great feat of the imagination and of perseverance.

  34. Cat

    Compare the pair:

    Bill Shorten announces a new industry for Queensland.

    Scott Morrison announces ANOTHER Captain Cook Memorial.

    Good juxtaposition. In this case, the difference is stark.

    Morrison has got to go!

  37. Ho, ho indeed.

    Thwarted ambition does that to a person sometimes and can result in changing sides. Are the sides diametrically opposed?

    Mr Mundine was the ALP national president in 2006-07, and later expressed interest in becoming a Labor senator, but was bested by former NSW premier Bob Carr. He left the Labor Party in 2012 after 20 years, saying it was “no longer the party I joined”

  40. The policy work that is done at grass-roots level shows how ‘democratic’ the ALP is in policy formation.

    Do the Liberals do any of this?

  41. The LNP seem to think that a pro-coal position will win votes. In fact, by adopting it they campaign against themselves. They are attaching themselves to ruin….to environmental ruin and political demise.

  42. Bridget McKenzie credited Cook with landing at Botany Bay in 1788 despite having died about in February 1789..

    “Deputy Nationals leader Bridget McKenzie was left red-faced yesterday after she wrongly claimed Australia Day represented the moment Captain James Cook landed in Botany Bay”.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/bridget-mckenzie-cooks-up-a-storm-over-australia-days-history/news-story/65429f147172b63c1bbf0cf6e01a452d

  44. Grimace
    “How could the federal Government enter into an *unconditional* contract for the power output of such a plant? In the absence of information confirming otherwise, I’ll assume that these proposed plants exist nowhere but the imagination of the proponents and in the proposals they’ve submitted to the Federal Government. To get such a plant off the ground would take years of planning and require numerous state and federal government approvals before construction could start, giving a likely construction start date beyond the 2022 election, nevermind the 2019 one.”
    —————————————————————-
    It wouldn’t be an unconditional contract I think they want the conditions to be that coal power stations will be built.
    If Labor don’t come out to clearly state they will never support such an act of economic and climate change vandalism at taxpayers expense. Why wouldn’t a company feel that any contract they sign for support by taxpayers for their new coal plant with the Aust government will be honoured?
    No doubt testing to see how truly gutless Labor are in the face of the LNP promotion of climate vandalism.
    With people this stupid and desperate to hold on, you think they really give a stuff about trying to enter into such a contract?
    Greens have already tried to pass legislation against any new contracts for coal on behalf of Aust taxpayers

  46. Greensborough Growler says:
    Tuesday, January 22, 2019 at 11:21 am
    Bridget McKenzie credited Cook with landing at Botany Bay in 1788 despite having died about in February 1789..

    A typo for sure….Cook was killed in 1779.

  47. A new campaign involving tackling tooth decay and sugary drinks:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-22/soft-drinks-targeted-over-tooth-decay-new-health-campaign/10735064

    Key points:
    A coalition of 19 health and community groups have funded the campaign

    The campaign is aimed at younger Australians who are more “image conscious”

    Dentists say the effects of drinking soft drink on dental health is “immediate”

    The Rethink Sugary Drink health campaign features young people drinking red cans of a drink that appears to contain cola, before flashing smiles that reveal rotten teeth.

    No doubt, the Australian Beverages Council, which represents soft drink manufacturers will prevail together with the major parties to stymie any real reform.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jan/16/most-australians-want-sugar-tax-on-drinks-guardian-essential-poll

    A majority of Australians support a tax on sugar-sweetened drinks, a new poll has found.

    The Greens Party has been on board with the experts for some years.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/election-2016-greens-call-for-20-per-cent-sugar-tax-on-drinks-20160621-gpo0j4.html

    The Greens Party also support having a system – Denticare.

  48. Poll Bludger Federal Election Seat Count Sweep
    Welcome to the Poll Bludger Federal Election Seat Count Sweep. Life has calmed down for me and its time for a much delayed update to the Sweep.

    If you would like to join email your prediction for the number of seats that Labor will win to sjapplin@hotmail.com. Your email will be deleted after your prediction is recorded with my apologies in advance to anyone inadvertently caught by the spam filter. I’ll try to keep track of any predictions posted in the thread if you’d prefer not to email me, without a guarantee it’ll be included.

    The rules of the competition are:
    • Your seat count prediction must be an integer
    • All forms of cheating and capitalising on insider knowledge are encouraged
    • Your first prediction is final

    The prize is gloating rights.

    Name__________Labor
    Toorak Toff __________71
    Davidwh__________74
    Whisper__________79
    Steve777__________80
    Jenauthor__________81
    Tricot__________81
    Bennelong Lurker__________82
    SandgroperWA__________82
    Torchbearer__________82
    Player One__________83
    BH__________84
    Edward Boyce__________84
    Max__________84
    C@tmomma__________84
    Lizzie__________84
    Gareth__________84
    Aunt Mavis__________85
    JPH__________85
    Sonar__________85
    Steve davis__________85
    Hugoaugogo__________85
    Imacca__________86
    J341893__________86
    Outside Left__________86
    Taz__________86
    Confessions__________87
    A Different Michael__________87
    Kambah Mick__________87
    The Silver Bodgie__________87
    Lord Haw Haw of Arabia__________87
    A R__________88
    JimmyD__________88
    Sproket__________88
    A R__________88
    Douglas and Milko__________89
    BK__________89
    Sohar__________89
    Left E__________89
    John Reidy__________89
    Mari__________89
    Quasar__________89
    D_money__________89
    Bert__________89
    Harry “Snapper” Organs__________90
    Onebobsworth__________90
    Swamprat__________91
    Poroti__________91
    Bilko__________92
    Pica__________92
    Socrates__________93
    Ausdavo__________93
    Yaba__________94
    Jack Aranda__________94
    Briefly__________94
    Matt31__________94
    ItzaDream__________94
    Nswtcsd__________95
    Booleanbach__________95
    Don__________95
    Adrian__________96
    Libertarian Unionist__________97
    Dan Gulberry__________98
    Burgey__________98
    Asha Leu__________99
    Guytar__________100
    ajm__________100
    Puffytmd__________100
    Golly__________101
    Grimace__________105
    Antonbruckner11__________106
    Andrew_Earlwood__________127

  49. “Exclusive: Liberals to parachute former Labor boss Warren Mundine into marginal seat”

    A case of a (Labor) rat jumping *on to* a sinking ship.

  50. jenauthor

    Thanks for your informative comment @ 9.53am. I’m a great fan of crime novels (as in whodunnits rather than those based on true crime) as well as the historical genre. Combine the two and I will read them avidly; Ellis Peters immediately springs to mind. I’m also a fan of authors whose work was topical at the time but has, through the passage of time, become historical by default. I’m thinking of writers like Dorothy Sayers, Margery Allingham, Michael Innes or Edmund Crispin.

    Agatha Christie is a constant favourite. Although her stories are often lightweight, the ingenuity of many of the plots continues to entertain and I find I read them time and again for pure pleasure (like a box of chocolates – but not in the Forrest Gump sense).

    You mention that only 0.07% of fiction sales are literary fiction. Do you have the % break-up for the other genres?

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