BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate gets new state data from Newspoll and a recalibration for the post-Turnbull era.

I’m most of the way through a thorough overhaul of BludgerTrack, which I’m commemorating here with a new post despite there having been no new national polls – although the latest state breakdowns from Newspoll are newly added to the mix. What’s different is that the Scott Morrison era trends are now being determined separately from the Malcolm Turnbull era. I haven’t yet brought the display on the sidebar up to speed, but follow the link below and you will observe separate, disconnected trend measures for the two periods (you may need to do a hard refresh to get it working properly). Where previously BludgerTrack was recording the post-coup period as an amorphous surge to Labor, now there is nuance within the Morrison-era polling – namely, a brief period of improvement for the Coalition after the post-coup landslip, followed by a shift back to Labor.

Other than that, the back end of BludgerTrack is now a lot more efficient, which means I will no longer have any excuse for not updating it immediately when a new poll is published. My next task is to get the leadership ratings back in action, as these have been pretty much in limbo since the leadership change, for a want of sufficient data on Scott Morrison to get a trend measure out of. There should also be further state-level data along soon-ish from Ipsos, which will be thrown in the mix whenever the company we must now call Nine Newspapers publishes it.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,212 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor”

  1. MarkJacka
    ‏@themarkjacka
    2h2 hours ago

    Looks like Prakash will be coming home to Australia, we’ve had a 25min Press Conference from @PeterDutton_MP & 10 times now he’s said it’s not his decision, it’s up to the Citizenship loss board.
    The Spud is crab-walking away as fast as he can.

  2. Police in Western Australia have confirmed they sent multiple officers to an emergency call that turned out to be a screaming man with a “serious fear” of spiders.

    A concerned passerby was walking outside a house in suburban Perth when they heard a toddler screaming and a man repeatedly shouting “Why don’t you die?”

    After they called triple zero, officers arrived to find a man “trying to kill a spider”, who apologised for having an extreme fear of the arachnid.

    The Wanneroo police Twitter account posted a screenshot of the police log of the incident on Wednesday morning.

    “Caller walked past the AA and heard a male screaming out ‘Why don’t you die’ – repeatedly,” the log read. “The toddler inside was screaming … caller doesn’t know them, but has seen them a few times when walking”.

    Twenty minutes later, officers on the scene provided an update.

    “Police spoke with all parties who advised that husband had only been trying to kill a spider (has serious fear of spiders). Apologised for inconvenience to police.

    “No injuries sighted (except to spider). No further police involvement required”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jan/02/australian-man-screaming-at-spider-why-dont-you-die-triggers-full-police-response?CMP=soc_568

  3. Quoll @ #2045 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 5:47 pm

    Like many more realistic policy turn arounds, pill testing along with a different approach to the pointless war on drugs has been Greens policy for years.
    Perhaps one of the biggest barriers to more people participating in political life has been the rigid and corrupting influence of the major parties who try and smash any view that isn’t their view at the time. Then claim everything as theirs when they finally move. No credit where credit is due for the Lab or Lib parties if it possibly comes to getting between them and government.

    Still irrelevant after all these years.

  4. Greensborough Growler @ #2054 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 3:04 pm

    Quoll @ #2045 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 5:47 pm

    Like many more realistic policy turn arounds, pill testing along with a different approach to the pointless war on drugs has been Greens policy for years.
    Perhaps one of the biggest barriers to more people participating in political life has been the rigid and corrupting influence of the major parties who try and smash any view that isn’t their view at the time. Then claim everything as theirs when they finally move. No credit where credit is due for the Lab or Lib parties if it possibly comes to getting between them and government.

    Still irrelevant after all these years.

    What the Greens never get into is how many of their “policy” brain farts are discretely euthanased without ever seeing the light of day. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

  5. frednk
    None of my children died. But they did go to Enchanted Forest and such-like. I assume good knowledge and practices reduced the possibility of any harm. I am a firm proponent of pill testing.

    I know people who have said the key to the drug problem is to put a lethal poison in illegal drugs so the takers die.

  6. grimace @ #2055 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 6:06 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #2054 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 3:04 pm

    Quoll @ #2045 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 5:47 pm

    Like many more realistic policy turn arounds, pill testing along with a different approach to the pointless war on drugs has been Greens policy for years.
    Perhaps one of the biggest barriers to more people participating in political life has been the rigid and corrupting influence of the major parties who try and smash any view that isn’t their view at the time. Then claim everything as theirs when they finally move. No credit where credit is due for the Lab or Lib parties if it possibly comes to getting between them and government.

    Still irrelevant after all these years.

    What the Greens never get into is how many of their “policy” brain farts are discretely euthanased without ever seeing the light of day. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

    The Greens are not the Messiah regardless of how much virtue selling they indulge themselves. They are simply facile opportunists.

    Law changes are a political process that involves generating public support/consensus based on up to date information.

    This pill testing proposal, on the face of it seems like a good reform. However, I take note of comments here today by clinicians and others who have experience in this field. Service providers need to be protected. The community needs to be assured that it doesn’t send signals of encouragement to users and traders in that market.

    Michael Doyle has adopted a perfectly reasonable stance of having a summit so all the facts can be on the table. Then you formulate a strategy and then you implement.

    Narking on the sidelines as the Greens always do means three eights of one quarter of fuck all.

  7. Greensborough Growler @ #2056 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 6:16 pm

    grimace @ #2055 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 6:06 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #2054 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 3:04 pm

    Quoll @ #2045 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 5:47 pm

    Like many more realistic policy turn arounds, pill testing along with a different approach to the pointless war on drugs has been Greens policy for years.
    Perhaps one of the biggest barriers to more people participating in political life has been the rigid and corrupting influence of the major parties who try and smash any view that isn’t their view at the time. Then claim everything as theirs when they finally move. No credit where credit is due for the Lab or Lib parties if it possibly comes to getting between them and government.

    Still irrelevant after all these years.

    What the Greens never get into is how many of their “policy” brain farts are discretely euthanased without ever seeing the light of day. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

    The Greens are not the Messiah regardless of how much virtue selling they indulge themselves. They are simply facile opportunists.

    Law changes are a political process that involves generating public support/consensus based on up to date information.

    This pill testing proposal, on the face of it seems like a good reform. However, I take note of comments here today by clinicians and others who have experience in this field. Service providers need to be protected. The community needs to be assured that it doesn’t send signals of encouragement to users and traders in that market.

    Michael Doyle has adopted a perfectly reasonable stance of having a summit so all the facts can be on the table. Then you formulate a strategy and then you implement.

    Narking on the sidelines as the Greens always do means three eights of one quarter of fuck all.

    The trial at Canberra’s Groovin the Moo worked. Social conservative politicians are just too stupid to move and have to be dragged kicking and screaming to the line like the marriage equality result.

  8. @Peter Stanton: Nothing so obvious – but the documents will have ‘accidentally’ been destroyed by some unidentifiable midlevel staffer in Cash’s office. She’ll tender a sincere(-ly worded) apology to the court, which will accept it and smack her lightly on the wrist. Then the howling monkeys in the Murdoch Media will start flinging shit at “unelected judicial activists” daring to wrist-smack a properly elected member of Parliament – while implying that if anyone should be in the dock, it’s Shorten.

    The punters will swallow it whole, as they usually do. And by the time any documents see the light of day, at least ten other topic will have come up and people will blink and say, “What? What documents? What raid? But Labor!!one!!1”.

    Bet on it. The only thing stupider than the average Australian is the average Australian on the plonk.

  9. @imacca: And why not? Labor’s caved in at the last minute on the last things the Fibs have done (TPP, anti-encryption), including after making a big song-and-dance about opposing it; why not think big, and push through as much of their fetid ideology as they can before the election, trusting that Labor a) will blink on this as well; and b) won’t want to rock the boat once elected – and so won’t repeal it.

    At worst, the Senate says “No”, and they get to try something else. At best, Labor caves-in again, and they get their shinies – and a chance to leave egg on Labor’s face.

  10. “@imacca: And why not?”

    With the first people to come out in opposition to it being their loyal Coalition partners?? 🙂

    Division and Kaos up front…just what they need.

  11. Matt @ #2063 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 6:47 pm

    @imacca: And why not? Labor’s caved in at the last minute on the last things the Fibs have done (TPP, anti-encryption), including after making a big song-and-dance about opposing it; why not think big, and push through as much of their fetid ideology as they can before the election, trusting that Labor a) will blink on this as well; and b) won’t want to rock the boat once elected – and so won’t repeal it.

    At worst, the Senate says “No”, and they get to try something else. At best, Labor caves-in again, and they get their shinies – and a chance to leave egg on Labor’s face.

    Polls showing Labor obtaining 90-100 seats in Parliament.

    I’ll provide the pan to cook those greens eggs and ham you’re cooking!

  12. Matt says:
    Wednesday, January 2, 2019 at 6:39 pm

    It is sad to read something so totally negative. If you have so little faith in the capacity of ordinary people to see through such an obvious charade you must not believe in democracy. With over 50 years of political activity I know that the voters have pretty good bullshit detectors. They will occasionally elect a bad government but this is usually when the previous government has worn out their patients and the voters anger overpowers their judgement. The voters will give a new government a second chance if they think that the government is learning from its mistakes and can improve. This is what happened at the last federal election. But when they see a government that is not being honest with them they are ruthless in their judgement.

  13. WTF!?!

    ‘The Morrison government is … considering how to introduce performance funding for universities. ‘

    What’s this all about!?! Who is going to be the judge of what KPIs universities must meet!?! It’s just another thinly-disguised effort by the Paleo Conservatives to decide what gets taught to our children and other people wanting to learn and expand their knowledge and understanding of the world around them.

    It stinks big time!

    #VoteThemOut

  14. @GG Way to miss the point – the Fibs know they’re gone at the next election. Why not wreck the joint as much as they can, implement as much of their filthy ideology as they can, then sit back in Opposition and watch their mouthpieces in the media scold Labor for the state of the place, as well as for “vindictiveness” whenever Labor tries to fix things up?

    As the saying goes, “There’s a certain freedom in knowing you’re to be hanged in fourteen days!”

  15. Peter Stanton@7:03pm
    Libs in the garb of Greens are in full force on PB since last month.
    I introduced a sanskrit word ‘Go-Mukh-Vyaghra’ several months ago. It means Cow (Go) faced (mukh) Tiger(Vyaghra).

  16. Going by their SOP.Coalition of the Spivs’ ‘University performance test’ = Measuring how much money the university squeezes out of each student. Performance tests to be performed by private company Shyster and Co. Shyster and Co’s board featuring many former Liberal party office holders and MPs also a major donor to the Liberal party.

  17. Matt @ #2071 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 7:19 pm

    @GG Way to miss the point – the Fibs know they’re gone at the next election. Why not wreck the joint as much as they can, implement as much of their filthy ideology as they can, then sit back in Opposition and watch their mouthpieces in the media scold Labor for the state of the place, as well as for “vindictiveness” whenever Labor tries to fix things up?

    As the saying goes, “There’s a certain freedom in knowing you’re to be hanged in fourteen days!”

    Freedoms just another word for being unemployed.

    Libs are about to learn this.

    Well, Libs planting bombs. Who fucking knew that would happen?

    Everybody!

  18. And in some good news, word is that both A Finch and M Marsh have been dropped.

    Handscomb and Laubuschene come in

    Have reserved seats in the new members stand for the first 3 days

  19. “Nothing so obvious – but the documents will have ‘accidentally’ been destroyed by some unidentifiable midlevel staffer in Cash’s office. She’ll tender a sincere(-ly worded) apology to the court, which will accept it and smack her lightly on the wrist”

    In which case we can draw our own conclusions – those least favourable to the Screeching Banshee.

  20. “Hopefully the Sydney Test goes for 5 days”

    The weather on days 4 and 5 looks a bit iffy. Maybe storms late on day 3 as well after a hot, humid first few days.

  21. So, as well as not being able to count, Peter Dutton is incapable of understanding citizenship law, which he is meant to be administering.

    What you can guarantee is that, if Neil Prakash had been able to be deported back to Fiji, he would have claimed all the credit.

    Anyway, I can see right through his tissue thin excuse that he came up with today, that citizenship issues are for some quango board to decide, because, as we have seen with every other sinecure which is in the gift of the Coalition government, it will have been stacked with like-minded mates. So the decisions that they make would always be the ones that the government wanted.

    The only thing that the Coalition can’t control, and especially in the age of Chinese money flooding the Pacific, so the old fallback of withdrawing Aid no longer works, is the other government!

  22. A passing thought re the LNP hanging out till May for the election. Given the increasingly frequent news stories about independents gearing up to run against Coalition candidates in safe seats, wouldn’t the government be better off going to an early election in March, to minimise the indies’ preparation and fund-raising time?

    Surely the longer they hold off, the more funds they’ll have to commit to retaining safe seats as well as campaigning in marginal ones. Is the “wait for a miracle” factor strong enough to counteract that?

  23. And has anyone made the obvious point yet that, with Neil Prakash coming back to Australia, the Morrison /Dutton government can’t even keep us safe from terrorists any more.

  24. C@tmomma @ #2084 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 7:58 pm

    And has anyone made the obvious point yet that, with Neil Prakash coming back to Australia, the Morrison /Dutton government can’t even keep us safe from terrorists any more.

    I remember Harold Larwood moved to Sydney some years after terrorising Australian batsmen in 1930 and lived happily in Sydney for a long time.

  25. A single isolated trial tells you nothing about the long term effects of a policy. Pill testing at festivals will no doubt save lives at festivals. But if someone starts taking drugs at festivals because they are relatively safe there and becomes addicted as a result, and then later dies when they take drugs somewhere without pill testing, well what then?

    My personal belief is that supplying a person with a substance that is both addictive and poisonous in regularly consumable quantities is attempted murder or GBH at best. So I want to see dealers gone after hard. But I can also see that actions need to be considered to minimise the potential hard to individual users. So, I support Labor’s position to have a summit on the issue. And I’m keen to see pill testing examined properly as a policy in that process. I’d also want to focus on why the rate of drug taking in Australia is so high compared to other developed countries.

    It’s true the Greens have been pushing pill testing for a while. I think a lot of the time they keep policy ideas in the public when the major parties have dismissed them. That’s a useful service. However, I also think the criticism that they don’t negotiate to consensus positions in parliament often enough is justified.

  26. Xoanon,
    I’m not sure if the Coalition have even pre-selected all their federal candidates yet!

    I mean, who would want to put their hand up to run in a safe Labor seat for a start? Especially considering the costs of a campaign. Let alone the candidates for Labor marginal seats, which might be a losing battle this time around.

    Better to run as an Independent Liberal anyway. Which they might be trying to organise as well.

  27. Well said, DVC.

    Can I just say that, as the mother of kids in the target audience for pills, that, no matter how hard you try and crack down the little buggers will find a way around your crackdown. As will the manufacturers and dealers. There’s money to be made and good times to be had, two highly motivating factors.

    Luckily my kids avoid it all like the plague but a couple of their mates like going to festivals and the rest. Now having known them since they were in kindergarten, I would like to think that, if they are going to take this stuff anyway, that it can be tested on site and they get to come back home again, only minus a few million more brain cells.

  28. Ven says:
    Wednesday, January 2, 2019 at 7:22 pm
    ‘Go-Mukh-Vyaghra’

    Thank you Ven, I love it. I may have been married to one once. having known many politicians from both sides of the game I get annoyed when people make uninformed attacks on them as people. With a few distinct exceptions they are hard working strongly committed people. Attack their ideas as much as you like, that is what the game is all about. But do not presume that because you do not agree with them they must be bad people.

  29. All this talk of “independents” running in Liberal seats makes me wonder if we’re not seeing true independents, open to examining the merit of ideas whatever the source, but liberals-at-heart abandoning the Liberals brand. We may be seeing the seeds of a post-LNP party.

  30. DVC @ #2086 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 8:02 pm

    My personal belief is that supplying a person with a substance that is both addictive and poisonous in regularly consumable quantities is attempted murder or GBH at best. So I want to see dealers gone after hard.

    That would see the end of alcohol – addictive and poisonous in regularly consumable quantities. Good luck with that one. Alcohol is the most dangerous drug in our society, with the highest mortality and morbidity, and the greatest cost to the community.

  31. ItzaDream @ #2091 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 8:20 pm

    DVC @ #2086 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 8:02 pm

    My personal belief is that supplying a person with a substance that is both addictive and poisonous in regularly consumable quantities is attempted murder or GBH at best. So I want to see dealers gone after hard.

    That would see the end of alcohol – addictive and poisonous in regularly consumable quantities. Good luck with that one. Alcohol is the most dangerous drug in our society, with the highest mortality and morbidity, and the greatest cost to the community.

    And sex!

  32. Surprising that one T 20 game can correct a dodgy technique.

    Whatever the ostensible grounds for dropping Handscomb in the first place and picking Mitch Marsh have changed.

    Rather than a boring Mexican wave the Sydney crowd should sing “You don’t know what you’re doing” to the Australian cricket selectors

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