BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate gets new state data from Newspoll and a recalibration for the post-Turnbull era.

I’m most of the way through a thorough overhaul of BludgerTrack, which I’m commemorating here with a new post despite there having been no new national polls – although the latest state breakdowns from Newspoll are newly added to the mix. What’s different is that the Scott Morrison era trends are now being determined separately from the Malcolm Turnbull era. I haven’t yet brought the display on the sidebar up to speed, but follow the link below and you will observe separate, disconnected trend measures for the two periods (you may need to do a hard refresh to get it working properly). Where previously BludgerTrack was recording the post-coup period as an amorphous surge to Labor, now there is nuance within the Morrison-era polling – namely, a brief period of improvement for the Coalition after the post-coup landslip, followed by a shift back to Labor.

Other than that, the back end of BludgerTrack is now a lot more efficient, which means I will no longer have any excuse for not updating it immediately when a new poll is published. My next task is to get the leadership ratings back in action, as these have been pretty much in limbo since the leadership change, for a want of sufficient data on Scott Morrison to get a trend measure out of. There should also be further state-level data along soon-ish from Ipsos, which will be thrown in the mix whenever the company we must now call Nine Newspapers publishes it.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,212 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor”

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  1. Fulvio Sammut says:
    Wednesday, January 2, 2019 at 2:37 pm
    Who’s that woman between the two mongrels?

    Which two mongrels. There are four mongrels two women and one dog.

  2. zoomster @ #1755 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 5:15 am

    ..Reynolds clearly does not understand how quotas work in the Labor party. They do exactly what she says they don’t.

    As quotas are applied at every level of the ALP, women have the opportunity to acquire practical political experience. The factions know, too, that if they want to have power within the organisation, they need to have women to fill the positions available – concentrate only on men and you can only compete for 50% of the positions. So women are being selected and nurtured from an early stage in their careers.

    And, of course, having a minimum of 50% of women involved in all aspects of the party’s organisation drives change in itself.

    Take away quotas tomorrow in the ALP and women would still be there, because by now there is at least some degree of cultural change and a body of women who can compete on the grounds of ‘merit’.

    The next step is to get membership to around 50/50. Would make complying with the AA rules a lot easier*.

    * I’m in 100% support of the AA rules.

  4. What we need in this country is more political involvement by everyday, common-as-gardens, voters; involvement in the parties and the processes and the results. Every time RD posts one their many canards, they dissuade such voters from becoming involved. RD is a loco for disenchantment; wind in the sails of rejection.

    Not one – not a single one – of the many hundreds of people I know in Labor conform to his distorted stereotypes. Not a single one. They make up shit all the time.

  7. “WWP
    I saw the first AFLW game at Princes Park and it was just a brilliant atmosphere with Collingwood playing Carlton.
    We are looking forward to St.Kilda joining the league next year. This year North Melbourne and Geelong are joining, bringing games to Tasmania and Geelong.”

    I honestly thought the AFL was showing some great leadership, but their decision to have a joke short season and the absence of my glorious eagles puts AFLW somewhat down my list. I’m not sure if there is already a scheduled eagles team, but laughing at Freo in the blokes game is all I need I don’t need to laugh at women of the anchor as well.

    To my great surprise, Cricket is doing a really good job, soccer has some of the very best players in the world running around playing great games in the W-League and you’d think FFA was trying to hide it rather than promote it.

    I don’t know about Rugby League but what I did watch during the blokes final series seemed a little bit more like exhibition matches rather than real league.

    On the other hand I’ve always had a view the women’s tennis is just a fundamentally better game to watch than the blokes.

  8. Sitting on a balcony atop the Southern Highlands NSW watching a very dangerous storm ☔️ (according to the BOM) sweep across the hilltops and down the valley.

    #PBweather

  10. don @ #1869 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 8:52 am

    lizzie @ #1829 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 10:45 am

    I have just had the unfortunate experience of speaking to Telstra by phone. Unfortunate because the auto voice response does not appear to speak English. It took me many repetitions until finally the bot gave up and offered me a voice. After which I resolved my problem.
    The same happens when I try to contact Centrelink. 😡

    What I do is repeat, monotone:

    operator…..operator…..operator…..operator…..operator…..

    and the bots give up. So far for me at least, and it is worth a try for others.

    I use a couple of different words to “operator” when trying to get the automated system to transfer me to a real person, we’ll stick to “operator” though to maintain decency.

  11. “What we need in this country is more political involvement by everyday, common-as-gardens, voters; involvement in the parties and the processes and the results. ”

    Agree 100%, I’ve started getting a bit evangelical about it, every time I hear a ‘I don’t talk about politics or get involved’ I ask why they don’t care about their community or country, and they look offended. Then to soften the blow I tell them the nastiest most racist member of one nation is contributing more to the country than them.

    They don’t like that a lot surprisingly.

  12. rhwombat @ #1879 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 9:06 am

    Steve777 @ #1852 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 11:28 am

    Apropos of nothing in particular, I had a Boostrix injection this morning, to boost immunity to whooping cough, diphtheria and tetanus. My niece, who will be giving birth later this month, requested that family members have it done. It’s recommended for adults who are likely to have contact with young children.

    Bordetella pertussis (the bacterium that causes whooping cough) can be lethal in infants <6 months who can contract it from shedding asymptomatic adults during window between the time maternal immunity fades (< 3m) and the (vaccine-induced) autologous response is sufficient to protect the airway (3-9m). Adult pertussis can be unpleasant ("The cough of 100 days"), but is rarely lethal. Pertussis continues to circulate asymptomatically in most adult populations – the vaccine effect is partial and temporary (~3 years), but including it in the DTaP booster of adults has been shown to reduce infant mortality in Australian populations.

    I can confirm that adult pertussis is very, very unpleasant.

  13. WeWantPaul says:
    Wednesday, January 2, 2019 at 3:17 pm
    “What we need in this country is more political involvement by everyday, common-as-gardens, voters; involvement in the parties and the processes and the results. ”

    Agree 100%, I’ve started getting a bit evangelical about it, every time I hear a ‘I don’t talk about politics or get involved’ I ask why they don’t care about their community or country, and they look offended. Then to soften the blow I tell them the nastiest most racist member of one nation is contributing more to the country than them.

    They don’t like that a lot surprisingly.

    We need to recruit among the good-hearted.

  16. Unfortunate because the auto voice response does not appear to speak English.

    Most of those systems will also allow navigation by pressing numbers, especially when they take the form of “For billing, say ‘billing’; for sales, say ‘sales’, etc.”. In which case you can almost always just press ‘1’ for billing, ‘2’ for sales, etc..

    Worse are the ones that go “say a few words describing your issue”, though usually if you don’t say anything they’ll start listing keywords (and menu options) for you.

  20. “What we need in this country is more political involvement by everyday, common-as-gardens, voters; involvement in the parties and the processes and the results. ”

    Democracy depends on an active involvement by the voters. I get very frustrated when people say that they are not interested in politics because all politicians are useless (or corrupt, or in it for themselves or any of the other standard claims). I point at that in fact the reverse is true. Politics depends on all of us being involved. It is when we do not involve ourselves in the process that the corrupt and unworthy manage to get elected.

  28. Once empanelled – even before – I’m confident that jurors won’t turn to the internet for details of the person they’re going to sit in judgment on. But even if they do, a strong judicial warning will do the trick.

  30. However, in news about real food, today I made a Spiced Blood Plum Crumble, spiced with Cardamom and Cinnamon. 🙂

    And for dinner tonight it’s Beef Stroganoff.

    #nomnomonPB

  32. Mavis Smith @ #2027 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 3:38 pm

    Once empanelled – even before – I’m confident that jurors won’t turn to to the internet for details of the person they’re going to sit in judgment on. But even if they do, a strong judicial warning will do the trick.

    I tend to disagree; though I don’t think it makes any difference if/when they do. The jurors are there to determine whether or not a specific criminal act occurred, based upon the evidence presented. The Internet can’t help them with that.

    People can know general things about a person, and still make an objective decision about whether that person did or didn’t do something.

  33. a r:

    [‘People can know general things about a person, and still make an objective decision about whether that person did or didn’t do something.’]

    Well, that’s not my experience. In fact, even in law similar fact evidence may be admissible, subject of course to established prerequisites.

  34. “People can know general things about a person, and still make an objective decision about whether that person did or didn’t do something.”

    That’s a juror’s job. If we can’t trust them to do that, we’d have to get rid of juries and leave it up to the judge.

  36. And the problem with Gladys’ backflip on pill testing is that Michael Daley, her opponent in the upcoming NSW State election, has already staked out the ground that she is belatedly climbing onto.

    Yet again Gladys Berejiklian looks like she is being led to the right conclusion, rather than leading the way.

  37. Mavis Smith @ #2030 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 3:43 pm

    A probable backflip by our Gladys:

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/we-would-consider-it-premier-softens-her-stance-on-pill-testing-20190102-p50p8n.html

    You’ve got to ask who’s advising her? As if her decision to back ole Al wasn’t bad enough.

    I haven’t read the article but perhaps she is being persuaded.

    Question: Why is pill testing a good thing?
    Answer: It gives the government another opportunity to tell people to say no. Pill testing lures pill takers into a tent where a professional tells them what they are about to do is dangerous. A private personal chat with a professional telling them “this is dangerous” is better than a faceless government ad randomly repeating “don’t take pills”.

    Note the use of “them”.

  38. Later that morning, with his eggs and toast and smoked fish; with spinach and salt; he cut his toast awkwardly. He’d lost a fingertip on his right hand at work, and everything was clumsily done these days, rather numbly. He wished he had a sharper knife for the toast, which was thick and damp from the trickled poaching water of the eggs, and he peered into the deep dark shine of the wilted spinach and looked forward to it. There was a delicious oily shine in the green and it looked bitter and sweet and salty at the same time, and his tongue wet his lips.

    And he noticed that his head seemed not to be defined by skin at that moment, but rather to have no boundary and to sit at the centre of a corona; and he had to remind himself that this was just a feeling, and that he might wish it away. Instead, he could imagine his skull from the inside. Concentrating, to his surprise, he found his head was empty. The bone was the colour of a pink Ford Thunderbird and was dry, and had a perfect circular hole in the crown through which the grey light of the forenoon poured. The noises of cutlery and chainsaws and children seeking attention were imprinted on the walls near where his ears had been located.

    And even more strangely, he found he was lying down on his back and gazing up to the hole in the roof of his skull and soaking up the cold from the stone beneath his shoulder-blades and pelvis, and imagining his body was marble. To his astonishment, he started to hear himself adopting an Irish accent, playing a sweet Dublinette sing-song for his own amusement; and he felt relief that no-one could hear him, because the sound was all wrong, no doubt. He’d never been to Dublin.

    He wished for the mercury lake and the sheoaks, paperbarks and banksia, and the grey kangaroos and the narrow asphalt path that led to his apartment block and to the front gate and the stairwell and the view along the ridge to the great and tireless tuarts.

  40. “I think briefly had a magic mushroom omelette for breakfast as well today. ”

    Worse ways to get through the day. Just avoid the ones from Balingup…they are horrid. 🙂

  42. Mavis Smith says:

    A probable backflip by our Gladys:

    She needs to look over the Tasman to see how it’s done.
    .
    Police Minister Stuart Nash wants drug testing kits at all music festivals by next summer ‘

    Nash said when it comes to the issue of drugs at music festivals, he wants to see a “more compassionate and restorative approach” when it comes to the use of drugs………….confident that a drug testing would help prevent hospitalisations.

    In fact, he said at some festivals in Australia drug hospitalisations dropped by 95 per cent after drug testing was implemented.
    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12184807

  45. Like many more realistic policy turn arounds, pill testing along with a different approach to the pointless war on drugs has been Greens policy for years.
    Perhaps one of the biggest barriers to more people participating in political life has been the rigid and corrupting influence of the major parties who try and smash any view that isn’t their view at the time. Then claim everything as theirs when they finally move. No credit where credit is due for the Lab or Lib parties if it possibly comes to getting between them and government.

  46. Puff…I will try….I suppose I will have to go back to work before long, but until then I will continue the inventions:)

    I’m glad you enjoy them.

  48. Of cpurse pill testing works. But there are those out there who do not care if people taking drugs die, in fact they like it. It is ‘getting their just desserts’ attitude that prevails amongst idealogues. They usually hate the poor and see them as a layer of society to be removed, like crumbs on a white tablecloth.
    That is part of the problem, the hatred.


  49. Quoll says:
    ..
    Greens policy for years.
    ..

    And it amounted to a hill of beans because no one cared. But now it look like happening thanks for letting everyone know.

  50. Puffy, it’s Darwin trying to take out kids; we were all young and stupid, most of us survived; the question is; what would you want done it it was one of yours.

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