BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate gets new state data from Newspoll and a recalibration for the post-Turnbull era.

I’m most of the way through a thorough overhaul of BludgerTrack, which I’m commemorating here with a new post despite there having been no new national polls – although the latest state breakdowns from Newspoll are newly added to the mix. What’s different is that the Scott Morrison era trends are now being determined separately from the Malcolm Turnbull era. I haven’t yet brought the display on the sidebar up to speed, but follow the link below and you will observe separate, disconnected trend measures for the two periods (you may need to do a hard refresh to get it working properly). Where previously BludgerTrack was recording the post-coup period as an amorphous surge to Labor, now there is nuance within the Morrison-era polling – namely, a brief period of improvement for the Coalition after the post-coup landslip, followed by a shift back to Labor.

Other than that, the back end of BludgerTrack is now a lot more efficient, which means I will no longer have any excuse for not updating it immediately when a new poll is published. My next task is to get the leadership ratings back in action, as these have been pretty much in limbo since the leadership change, for a want of sufficient data on Scott Morrison to get a trend measure out of. There should also be further state-level data along soon-ish from Ipsos, which will be thrown in the mix whenever the company we must now call Nine Newspapers publishes it.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,212 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor”

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  1. Holden Hillbilly

    I am amazed that NASA already had data suggesting this bilobed appearance (or perhaps even two separate objects). The flyby has shown this to be the case.

    Though scrolling down to this though bleary eyes when I woke up I first thought you had uploaded a picture of a strawberry with a needle through it!

  2. Good morning and
    thanks BK for a good start for the day with the Dawn Patrol.

    The following from BK’s selected items.

    Ross Gittins says we need many more trees.
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/conservation/what-the-economy-really-needs-more-of-trees-20181231-p50p06.html

    We know instinctively that “grass time” – running on it, rolling in it, throwing and catching a ball across it – is vital for the health and wellbeing of children. Particularly if they’ve been cooped up indoors, glued to a screen. But adults are no different, the wise man says.

    I have long been an admirer of Dame Judi Dench and searching for something interesting to view on my oft times silent and reproachful intelligent television – I came upon this item –

    This film follows Judi’s experience through the seasons and her mission to understand the role of trees in history and the future. Judi joins tree scientists and historians to unlock the remarkable secret lives of trees and the stories that they cannot tell. With scientific techniques and equipment at her disposal, she is able to truly understand how trees work and gain an insight into their secrets. She meets a designer with a microphone to hear the trees around her, and a scientist with 3D scanning technology reveals her favourite oak in a new light.

    Judi’s oak tree branches are a couple of kilometres long and the tree has about 260,000 leaves.

    An extremely interesting article and I loved Judi’s gentle conversation with the various others who people the item.

    Starting tomorrow I will resume my mowing and edging program – safe in the knowledge that Mr.
    Ross Gittins, no less, assures me that I have instinctively been performing my almost ritualistic tasks which

    as Hugh Mackay observes in his latest book, Australia Reimagined, being connected to nature is a traditional source of relief from anxiety: gardening, bushwalking, strolling in a park, walking the dog, climbing a tree, swimming in the sea or sailing on it, picnicking in a tranquil and beautiful setting, playing games that take you outdoors and into a natural environment.

    A funeral to attend this morning – a wonderful friend of my wife. A sad day. Ƹ̴Ӂ̴Ʒ ☮ Ƹ̴Ӂ̴Ʒ

  3. zoomster @ #1747 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 8:04 am

    ‘The Liberal Party is not a party of formal quotas; we have never been and I believe never will be.’

    Cough.

    ‘It was Menzies, when the modern Liberal Party was being formed, who insisted on quotas so women were guaranteed equal representation on the party’s governing bodies.’

    https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/john-howard-trashed-mentor-robert-menzies-legacy-on-gender-equality-20160915-grh4vc.html

    The Nats get a quotad number of Ministers.
    The States get a quotad number of Ministers.
    The Senate gets a quotad number of Ministers.

  5. ..Reynolds clearly does not understand how quotas work in the Labor party. They do exactly what she says they don’t.

    As quotas are applied at every level of the ALP, women have the opportunity to acquire practical political experience. The factions know, too, that if they want to have power within the organisation, they need to have women to fill the positions available – concentrate only on men and you can only compete for 50% of the positions. So women are being selected and nurtured from an early stage in their careers.

    And, of course, having a minimum of 50% of women involved in all aspects of the party’s organisation drives change in itself.

    Take away quotas tomorrow in the ALP and women would still be there, because by now there is at least some degree of cultural change and a body of women who can compete on the grounds of ‘merit’.

  6. briefly
    says:
    Wednesday, January 2, 2019 at 8:05 am
    lizzie says:
    Wednesday, January 2, 2019 at 7:18 am
    Thank you, Lizzie. I have had a few days off and been able to relax and find the words are coming easily. It’s a great pleasure for me and I’m very pleased that bludgers might enjoy it too.
    ____________________________________
    I certainly enjoy your reflective work far more than your libling stuff. sorry to hear about your mom’s fall and your insomnia. My brother suffered from the same issue. Ultimately things improved a bit when he taped his windows up in his bedroom so that no light could penetrate. Neighbourhood sound woke him too, so earplugs were employed. I believe he was then getting a good bloc of 5 hours uninterrupted sleep which is not bad.

  7. briefly @ #1748 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 8:05 am

    lizzie says:
    Wednesday, January 2, 2019 at 7:18 am

    Thank you, Lizzie. I have had a few days off and been able to relax and find the words are coming easily. It’s a great pleasure for me and I’m very pleased that bludgers might enjoy it too.

    Keep it up. Might I suggest a paragraph break or two for the aged (me) to enable easier reading.

    Best wishes to your mum.😇 Skin tears are nasty and so easily contracted by we of the papery skin. 😍

  8. Craig Emerson
    ‏@DrCraigEmerson
    3m3 minutes ago

    Hello Liberal Party. Labor does not “exploit” gender issues. Women comprise a majority of Australia’s population. They face workplace discrimination through a pay gap, income gap and superannuation gap. Many women suffer horrendous domestic violence. Women are not a fringe issue!

  9. BK

    That photo of Rishabh Pant with Tim Paine’s wife and children was a welcome change from a lot of the onfield cricket stuff.

    But Paine will never be able to recruit Pant for the Hobart Hurricanes – the only T20 tournament Indian players are allowed to play in is the IPL.

    Even made ‘The Times of India’

    https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/m.timesofindia.com/sports/cricket/india-in-australia/rishabh-pant-turns-baby-sitter-for-tim-paines-kids/amp_articleshow/67334701.cms

  11. Nice touch that the byline on the Paine/Pant SMH article is Tom Decent. 🙂

    Maybe everyone is on their best behaviour for a kinder gentler 2019…

  14. Wire rope barriers may be a great initiative for car safety, but they are waiting death traps for us motorcyclists and bicyclists. Especially rope barriers on the side verge.

  15. lizzie

    The Liberal and National Parties’ attitude to female candidates is one of the things that will keep them in the wildernesses politically.

    I think that eventually they may realise that and start recruiting more women to stand, even if deep down their leaders are philosophically opposed to this.

    Of course their current supposed ‘meritocracy’ has given Australia some brilliant performers such as Craig Kelly!

  16. The nights are meant to be dark. Just the glimmer of a fading fire at the cave entrance on drooping eyelids.

    Computers are anathema to sound sleep patterns. Are you banging away on computers because you can’t sleep, or can’t sleep because you’re banging away on computers.

    #melatonin

  17. Meanwhile it continues to be an interesting shit show in the US. So many twists and turns……
    ____________________________

    Claude Taylor
    Claude Taylor
    @TrueFactsStated
    ·
    38m
    Donald Trump is providing sanctuary to a wanted man. Who happens to be a billionaire, Mar a Lago member and the “Trump” of China.
    Quote Tweet
    Ana Navarro
    @ananavarro
    A lot going-on here. Guy w/dog in front of boat w/inflatable “Trump-Rat” is a Chinese fugitive accused of serious crimes, who belongs to Mar-a-Lago. Also, in Chinese Calendar, 2019 is The Year of the Pig, which I swore had been 2016. Lastly, I hope 2019 is The Year of Mueller. (link: https://twitter.com/truefactsstated/status/1080075866300993539) twitter.com/truefactsstate…
    NotSusan
    NotSusan
    @SoundsLikeSusan
    Replying to
    @TrueFactsStated
    The photo of a Chinese fugitive was taken and provided by the girlfriend of said fugitive, with the #RatBoat in the background, at the US president’s private residence. Seems like a big “FU”. I’m just having a hard time figuring out to whom: Chinese gov, US gov or Trump himself?
    8:45 AM · Jan 2, 2019 · Twitter for iPhone

  18. Good Morning

    Desperate stuff from the LNP. Trying to recover from Dutton attacking Turnbull no doubt.

    As has been posted by bludgers its a load of BS.

    Cat

    I agree with you about the release of papers earlier. They show exactly what scumbags the LNP really are. Their DNA. Thanks to Labor heroes in and out of unions Howard’s attempt to do a Thatcher fell on its butt.

    Today the LNP are reaping the rewards and I for one am glad its looking terminal for the party. We shall see when they are in opposition.

  19. I was recently talking to some people high up in the Victorian Amateur Football Association, where there has been an explosion of women playing Australian Football in the last few years (massively spurred on by the AFLW starting). They said that now nearly every club in their association has a girls/women’s program. Aside from the benefits of making the clubs bigger and more solid financially, many people are reporting back to them that it is helping tremendously in changing attitudes to women among the guys at their clubs, far more effectively than any advertising campaign ever did.

  21. vic,

    While you take the victories you can when they are on offer, it’s not going to be bad for Labor to have some of those dinosaurs roaming the corridors of Parliament House.

  23. Frednk and others

    The wire rope barrier installation still needs to be designed to fit each context with issues like overtaking, acceess and roadside obstacles allowed for in each case. But overall the median and edge barriers reduce fatalities a lot. Breakdown is actually fairly rare these days and you only need to allow for a breakdown-bay each kilometre or so. Hitting roadside trees and poles is still the biggest single cause of road deaths. Their policy is comprehensive and includes peds and cyclists. See:
    https://www.government.se/4a800b/contentassets/b38a99b2571e4116b81d6a5eb2aea71e/trafiksakerhet_160927_webny.pdf

  24. Cat

    I am so looking forward to January 1st 2021 when the last ‘double year’ catch-up on the archives finally brings the gap from 30 to 20 years.

    Because we will then find out all about 2000 and 2001, with SIEV X, ‘children overboard’ and the like.

  25. 2019 is the penultimate year before the year of perfect vision (2020 boom tish) when we will be the timely beneficiaries of the focus and clarity an up and running Labor Govt will be bringing to the urgent task of restoring equality and fairness as the modus operandi of all things Australian.

  26. News bulletins on ABC News Radio this morning led with “A further 6 detention centres have been closed down due to government’s tough border policies” and “Government demonstrates that Labor’s female quotas are a bandaid fix”.

    Quote. Unquote.

    Yes, it was THAT blatant. Pretty shameless actually. Quite obvious there’s a Big Push on, not only at the ABC, but nearly everywhere else.

  28. Rocket Rocket @ #1774 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 9:17 am

    Cat

    I am so looking forward to January 1st 2021 when the last ‘double year’ catch-up on the archives finally brings the gap from 30 to 20 years.

    Because we will then find out all about 2000 and 2001, with SIEV X, ‘children overboard’ and the like.

    SEIV X is one I most want to see the truth of brought to light.

  30. This is a complete cock-up.

    How unsurprising!!!

    It seems no one checked Fijian law or spoke to Fijian authorities.

    Neil Prakash ‘not a Fiji citizen’: Dutton move to strip Australian citizenship in doubt

    Australian authorities revoked the 27-year-old Isis fighter’s citizenship on the understanding he also held citizenship in Fiji

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/02/neil-prakash-not-a-fiji-citizen-dutton-move-to-strip-australian-citizenship-in-doubt

  31. I don’t know if the excellent BK has a link to the article in the Guardian today but the news about the Coalition Government shutdown on FOI access is yet another example of how far this right-wing reactionary government will go to hide its decision making.
    Frightening, absolutely undemocratic and , given the emphasis on policing power by the Government and Dutton especially, not surprising. It was one of the founders of the American Republic who wrote ” the freedom of the Press cannot be limited without being lost. “.
    We live in dangerous times.

  33. Rocket

    I have some sympathy with Assange’s view that all cabinet decisions should be open to the public. We should have access to submissions in exactly the same way we have seen with the Ruddock report.

    I would like to see Cabinet decisions like Estimates. Where the public is aware when the secrecy veil is pulled down for good reasons of confidentiality. That even applies to national security issues so I don’t see why we can’t do that. It would mean accountability in our executive branch of government at all levels.

    Realistically I know its not going to happen any time soon but I would like to see that. At the moment I just see politicians avoiding accountability with the excuse of not getting fearless and frank advice. With that transparency it would be very hard for the Tories to use taxpayers dollars to sack workers.

    So in the meantime I would like to see those discussions reduced to a waiting period of two or three years but maybe 10 years is more realistic. I really think the voting public should be able to see the motives of why something is happening and hold politicians accountable for that.

    Edit: To be clear I don’t think frank and fearless advice is prevented. Just the secrecy we have now lets politicians dodge the responsibility of the decision based on that advice.

  34. Greensborough Growler says:
    Wednesday, January 2, 2019 at 8:09 am
    It was 23 years ago today!

    Thank you for refreshing that great memory.

  36. Barney

    Looks like Prakesh’s citizennship was checked about as carefully as some Liberal MPs. Why is the Reichspotato still a minister?


  38. Socrates says:
    Wednesday, January 2, 2019 at 9:14 am

    Frednk and others

    The wire rope barrier installation still needs to be designed to fit each context with issues like overtaking, acceess and roadside obstacles allowed for in each case. But overall the median and edge barriers reduce fatalities a lot. Breakdown is actually fairly rare these days and you only need to allow for a breakdown-bay each kilometre or so. Hitting roadside trees and poles is still the biggest single cause of road deaths. Their policy is comprehensive and includes peds and cyclists. See:
    https://www.government.se/4a800b/contentassets/b38a99b2571e4116b81d6a5eb2aea71e/trafiksakerhet_160927_webny.pdf

    Thanks; I thought it would be a statistical thing.

    Grew up as a son of a country doctor; it was locals drunk and city slickers running off the road.

    Dads comment; why don’t they teach people that hitting the gravel is not the end of the world if you don’t panic.

    It was the reason I thought being a doctor was a fools idea; I was woken up at three in the morning, went back to sleep; he had to go and deal with it. It was usually the tree that got them.

  39. Meanwhile housing prices have taken a fair hit over past 12 months which has been good.
    And I am all for changes to negative gearing as proposed by team Labor.
    I am not so sure if the majority are going to buy it. Especially with the type of scare campaigns the vested interests will conduct.
    This may be the difference of a good win for Labor or just getting over line at next election.

  41. Geez, I read that article in The Australian covering “How Labor has failed women” (by instituting quotas) and “How can Labor women let themselves be used so cynically?” (by participating in a process that finally achieves equality of representation) and “Bulliec? I was never bullied,” (because I was always going to vote for Dutton anyway).

    What a crock de merde!

  42. Rocket

    Of course I forgot to add. This is the issue FOI is supposed to address. Thats why I think like Senate Estimates broadcast the meetings and just go secret when necessary. The FOI process has failed us as politicians use any old excuse to avoid accountability.

  43. Peter Stanton @ #1701 Tuesday, January 1st, 2019 – 10:36 pm

    The Waterside Workers Federation was a very well organised union with a strong and loyal membership. This came from the early days when working conditions on the warves were every bad.

    Yep – Very few people would remember ‘The Hungry Mile” these days, what it meant or even where it was.

    Sad – same lessons having to be learnt over and over.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hungry_Mile

  44. Victoria @ #1789 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 5:42 am

    Meanwhile housing prices have taken a fair hit over past 12 months which has been good.
    And I am all for changes to negative gearing as proposed by team Labor.
    I am not so sure if the majority are going to buy it. Especially with the type of scare campaigns the vested interests will conduct.
    This may be the difference of a good win for Labor or just getting over line at next election.

    Hasn’t that just made them more affordable to investors who are still able to negatively gear?

  45. This parody account has captured the seriousness with which Trumps tweets should be met.

    @realDonaldTrFan tweets

    Just found out Australia ALREADY celabrated New Years Eve!! HOURS before the United States!! Its 2019 in Australia and 2018 in the USA! Gives them a huge UNFAIR advantage! How did we let them get ahead of us? Now there laughing at us! #NewYearsEve #HappyNewYear2019 #HappyNewYear

  46. BB
    “Geez, I read that article in The Australian covering “How Labor has failed women”

    Surreal. Next they will congratulate Howard for his defence of worker rights. Despotic regimes also need to hide their own actions. Here are two more examples.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/02/how-a-flawed-freedom-of-information-regime-keeps-australians-in-the-dark
    And
    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/jan/01/outrage-after-netflix-pulls-comedy-show-criticising-saudi-arabia

    Have a good day all.

  47. I really want to read about how the Howard government decided to exploit the Tampa for their own electoral benefit. They were on a path towards losing the 2001 election until it hove into view. I will be especially interested in the legal advice they said supported their legal right to send the SAS onto the Tampa to take away the asylum seekers and the legal opinion that precluded the Tampa from simply bringing them to shore.

    Plus I would love to read the thinking which led to excision of various parts of Australia from the Migration zone.

    Also, I’m not sure but was the East Timor Independence fight and Australia’s considerations wrt Indonesia a thing back then?

  48. guytaur @ #1795 Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 – 5:46 am

    This parody account has captured the seriousness with which Trumps tweets should be met.

    @realDonaldTrFan tweets

    Just found out Australia ALREADY celabrated New Years Eve!! HOURS before the United States!! Its 2019 in Australia and 2018 in the USA! Gives them a huge UNFAIR advantage! How did we let them get ahead of us? Now there laughing at us! #NewYearsEve #HappyNewYear2019 #HappyNewYear

    I think it’s a disgrace that all those pissant Pacific islands start the New Year ahead of us!
    👿 👿 👿

  49. The Australian government is refusing access to documents at record rates, aided by a flawed freedom of information regime beset by delays, understaffing and unnecessary obfuscation.

    A month-long investigation into the operation of freedom of information (FOI) laws has identified systemic problems causing vast volumes of government information to be kept secret. Guardian Australia has found:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/02/how-a-flawed-freedom-of-information-regime-keeps-australians-in-the-dark

  50. Vic,
    Michael Pascoe’s article today in the Dawn Patrol is very good reading about the Negative Gearing policy of Labor and house price falls generally.

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