Newspoll quarterly aggregates: October to December 2018

Newspoll offers a more nuanced look at the electoral disaster that appears to await the Coalition.

The Australian has published Newspoll’s final quarterly aggregate for the year, with state breakdowns showing Labor leading 54-46 in New South Wales (unchanged on the previous quarter), 56-44 in Victoria (down from 57-43), 54-46 in Queensland (unchanged), 53-47 in Western Australia (down from 54-46) and 58-42 in South Australia (unchanged). As The Australian’s report notes, it also records a nine point increase in Scott Morrison’s disapproval rating outside the five mainland capitals, from 38% to 47%, while his approval is down from 42% to 39%. In the capitals, Morrison is down two on approval to 42% and up five on disapproval to 44%. However, this doesn’t feed through to voting intention, on which Labor’s lead is steady at 56-44 in the capitals, but down from 54-46 to 53-47 elsewhere.

There are no gender or age breakdowns included, so expect those to be published separately over the coming days. We should also get aggregated quarterly state breakdowns from Ipsos in what used to be the Fairfax papers at some point.

UPDATE: Newspoll’s gender and age breakdowns have indeed been published in The Australian today. As with the state breakdowns, these yield little change on voting intention, with the arguable exception of Labor’s primary vote being down two among the 18-34s to 44%, and up two among the 35-49s to 43%. However, the decline noted yesterday in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings among regional voters is matched in the 50-plus cohort, among whom he is down six on approval to 42% and up nine on disapproval to 45%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,003 comments on “Newspoll quarterly aggregates: October to December 2018”

  1. Hyperinflation is a very rare event.

    When it happens it is usually because of big falls in the productive capacity of the economy. National output falls dramatically but the government does not make a commensurate cut to the number of currency units that it spends into existence (to a large degree because the automatic stabilisers kick in and spending is immediate whereas collection of tax receipts involved a lag time of months). And the government does not address the output shortages.

    Venezuela’s national output fell by a third from 2012 to 2017. That is an immense drop.

    Venezuela’s economy was overly reliant on one commodity – oil and gas – and that industry was not well-managed. Cronyism and corruption undermined the productivity of the oil and gas sector.

    Sanctions from the United States have hampered Venezuela’s capacity to produce goods and services.

    Venezuela’s government and private sectors have large amounts of debts that are denominated in foreign currencies.

    Large foreign currency debts are a big problem because they can only be serviced if the country is exporting enough goods to earn the foreign currency that it needs.

    If the government isn’t earning enough foreign exchange from its exports (because its capacity to produce exports has fallen sharply) it will struggle to service its foreign debt. If it enters the foreign exchange markets to use its own currency buy the foreign currency that it needs to service foreign currency debt. This amplifies the inflation problem.

    The way forward for Venzuela includes:

    Defaulting on its foreign currency debt

    Not incurring any more unhedged foreign currency debt (including a ban on the private sector doing unhedged borrowing of foreign currencies)

    Launching a new currency and making it the only currency that the government will accept in payment of taxes, fees, and fines

    Banning non-essential imports (to avoid depreciating the new currency)

    Carrying out productivity enhancing investments in its natural resource industries

    Diversifying its economy to build economic resilience

  2. BW and Briefly are the biggest trolls on here. My own anti-Shorten proclivities, which have often been lamented by others, are just a picnic compared to the never ending repetitive feast delivered by these two trolls.

  3. Clem
    I have no issues with the good things Attlee did.
    Those are not at question.
    You avoid the facts about Attlee’s role in India with a cultist devotion.
    The core issue is this: ‘Could Attlee have made different decisions with the resources he had to hand which would have saved the lives of hundreds of thousands of Indians?’

  4. N
    Isn’t Venezuela already in implicit default of its foreign debt?
    BTW, I thought that Maduro’s MMT thing of forcing a 3000% increase in wages would have done the trick.

  5. Does anybody really think BW cares about Clement Attlee? It’s just a peg to troll our own clem and get him continually on the defensive, where he wants him. BW has him with a flat hook to enable continual catch and release.

  6. I’m in the common “divide and conquer” camp as the main cause. India hadn’t been a fiercely divided country until the British pitted the Hindu, Muslim and Sikh populations against each other. The partition civil war was a religious one which the fairly secular Nehru and moderate Jinnah didn’t foresee or plan for. The British certainly cut and run.

  7. “The anti-Imperialist Attlee spent a truck load of money building a major military base in Kenya.
    Please explain!”

    tell me BW, what do you think would be a larger burden on the British taxpayer, building a base in Kenya, or providing the required funding to sustain the occupation of a huge country like India, and all the resources required to keep a lid on unrest errupting in all corners of the country?

    My “explanation” is that Atlee deemed India too greater burden on an already crippled British economy – whereas Kenya was not. There“s also the crude point that you yourself acknowledged that there was still a bob or two to be made in Kenya.

    I also quietly chuckle at your apparent outrage at Attlee for the high crime of prioritising spending on the British people over the Indians.

  8. Dio
    Your cut and run bit is 100% correct.
    The divide and rule bit was as well but it was nuanced because the situation was so dynamic and the pent up forces so huge.
    During WW2 Attlee was Deputy Prime Minister in the War Cabinet and had specific responsibility for Indian Affairs. (One of his initiatives was the Cripps Commission.)
    The Muslims and the Sikhs were prepared to back the UK for the duration of the War. Congress was not. So Attlee had over ten thousand Congress members jailed. (Another thing that modern day Attlee cultists tend to overlook!)
    One upshot of the different responses to WW2, and to the way in which some Brits thereafter viewed the relative merits of muslim, Sikh and Congress leaders, was that Sikhs and the Muslims started thinking that they ought to be getting more than just a bit part role in Congress.
    Addressing in a systematic way the violent and murderous behaviour of Sikh nationalists before Independence was just one of Attlee’s missed opportunities as post war prime minister.

  9. ‘clem attlee says:
    Saturday, December 29, 2018 at 9:50 pm

    Stupid Britain spending all those billions defending world democracy against the fascists.’

    Attlee was, of course, an ardent pacifist who campaigned strongly against defence spending. (A bit like today’s Greens, actually.)

    It took Hitler to make Attlee see sense in those little matters.

  10. yabba @ #1902 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 5:48 pm

    John Reidy @ #1811 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 7:45 pm

    One of my father’s ambitions was to be the only person in Australia to not see the sound of music.
    MMT, not so much.

    The Sound of Music is the only film I have walked out of in my life. Utterly appalling. Battered tripe with caramel sauce and treacle.

    Having never attempted to watch it I’ve had no need to walk out of it.

    The only movie I’ve done that for was the final Hobbit movie.

    After 5.5 movies, Jackson’s abuse had finally become too much!!! 🙂

  11. Big A Adrian

    ‘I also quietly chuckle at your apparent outrage at Attlee for the high crime of prioritising spending on the British people over the Indians.’

    Well of course imperialists, racists and colonialists would have a quiet chuckle about that! That was what it was all about old chap, what?

  12. At one time Atlee was a pacifist, but he backed Churchill staunchly during WWII and put that former believe away. That transformation cost him friends in the labour movement, so sorry Boer, wrong again.

  13. Diogenes
    India hadn’t been a fiercely divided country

    India was never really one country before the British took over the various states of the sub-continent, and unwittingly unified the various peoples together against them.

    The only two periods that came closest to a “unified India” were under the Mughal Empire and the Mauryan Empire, and this was largely due to the fact that they practiced toleration of different cultures and religions. While both dynasties existed for many hundreds of years, they only had control of the bulk of the sub-continent for roughly 150 years each all up.

  14. BW: “I have no issues with the good things Attlee did.”

    Of course you do. You just howled your outrage that he had the gall to spend “truckloads of money” on his own people – rather than prop up a destructive and cripplingly expensive imperialist occupation

  15. Clem
    Ahem. For half a century I have been an ardent student of the history of European colonialism and a reasonable proportion of my library consists of books thereon.
    My ignorance, such as it is, has something of a bottom.
    Your ignorance has no anchor, no compass, no bearings and no map.
    The truth is that as soon as the Brits realized that they could not screw any more money out of India they cut and ran.
    And they did it in such a feckless way that many Indians died needlessly.
    And Attlee was at the very heart of all that.

  16. Nath, I couldn’t care less what Boer’s motives are. I will not allow smears to go unanswered. I think you have shown yourself to be very much on Boer’s side. Certainly not mine.

  17. zoidlord
    It is good that a Labor Government is committed to getting rid a lot of the rich people’s welfare. It will be difficult because they will have to be dragged to it kicking and screaming.

  18. I’m getting bored with this pardon the pun. Hey Boer, can’t you make some sort of crack pot Cold War type conspiracy foreign relations type comment just to freshen things up a bit?

  19. Dio, Jimmy D
    The states within the boundaries of today’s Afghanistan/Pakistan/India/Bangla Desh/Burma, and empires abutting India, were in a state of almost anticipation of, preparation for and participation in, perpetual warfare.
    In terms of trends, it is arguable that the intervention of the Europeans in India, inter alia, interrupted the rise of a pan-Indian islamic state which would probably have included modern Pakistan, Bangla Desh and India.
    India now has nearly 200 million muslims.

  20. “From memory they were also silent about Barnaby’s cheating on his wife and getting a woman other than his wife pregnant.”

    Blessed are the hypocrites. In my experience “christian” activists and politicians are usually quite selective on which parts of the bible they like to quote from or moralise about. For example, they rarely exhort us all to pay our taxes, even though the bible is explicit about that (“give to Caesar what is Caesars”). They usually aren’t to flash on obeying commandment 8 (don’t bear false witness) and 9 and 10 (don’t covet/envy your neighbour’s wife, house and possessions). They are fairly greedy buggers, as a rule.

  21. Zoidlord

    Ya reckon the Outrageometer would be hitting 11 on the dial if Shorten had said that ? 😆

    “Scott Morrison tells retirees they must spend their superannuation”

  22. BW, Im not the one making a heroic case for prolonging one of the most “nasty, racist, murderous” instances of colonialism – you are. And Im certainly not the one condemning a British PM for pursuing policies to end that most “nasty, racist, murderous” colonialism – you are.

    That you actually think its the other way around certainly is worth a chuckle. Old chap. Wot

  23. I saw this article earlier today on the Guardian, whereby Labor would rebuff requests for state funding for Elon Musks proposals for hyper loops.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/29/labor-rebuffs-elon-musks-hypothetical-hyperloop-to-solve-australias-transport-woes

    Correct! Musks hyper loop proposal is very fanciful. Even if it works in trials, any successful full scale mplementation is decades away. Sydney and Melbourne need solutions now. That means conventional electric light and heavy rail. The former accessible, the latter as fast as possible.

  24. Boer, it is equally possible that without British invasion the sub-continent would have become a collection of culturally and religiously similar nation-states, somewhat like Europe in the present day.

  25. Big A Adrian you have to understand that Boer is the master of expressing two mutually exclusive ideas at he same time. Double Think rules with him. NQR!

  26. As a self professed expert on colonialism (read avid devotee of Wikipedia) it is interesting that Boer’s attention always seems to fall on Britain’s imperialism and never that of the Dutch.

  27. Hey, clem! Wanna come over to my place? I can play you my collection of Billy Bragg records and show you my Doc Martens and we could dance under the Red Wedge posters and reminisce about the good old days when people stood for something, eh? ~_~

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