Newspoll quarterly aggregates: October to December 2018

Newspoll offers a more nuanced look at the electoral disaster that appears to await the Coalition.

The Australian has published Newspoll’s final quarterly aggregate for the year, with state breakdowns showing Labor leading 54-46 in New South Wales (unchanged on the previous quarter), 56-44 in Victoria (down from 57-43), 54-46 in Queensland (unchanged), 53-47 in Western Australia (down from 54-46) and 58-42 in South Australia (unchanged). As The Australian’s report notes, it also records a nine point increase in Scott Morrison’s disapproval rating outside the five mainland capitals, from 38% to 47%, while his approval is down from 42% to 39%. In the capitals, Morrison is down two on approval to 42% and up five on disapproval to 44%. However, this doesn’t feed through to voting intention, on which Labor’s lead is steady at 56-44 in the capitals, but down from 54-46 to 53-47 elsewhere.

There are no gender or age breakdowns included, so expect those to be published separately over the coming days. We should also get aggregated quarterly state breakdowns from Ipsos in what used to be the Fairfax papers at some point.

UPDATE: Newspoll’s gender and age breakdowns have indeed been published in The Australian today. As with the state breakdowns, these yield little change on voting intention, with the arguable exception of Labor’s primary vote being down two among the 18-34s to 44%, and up two among the 35-49s to 43%. However, the decline noted yesterday in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings among regional voters is matched in the 50-plus cohort, among whom he is down six on approval to 42% and up nine on disapproval to 45%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,003 comments on “Newspoll quarterly aggregates: October to December 2018”

  1. clem attlee:

    You’re no doubt a stirrer; but in addition, I can appreciate where you’re coming from apropos of certain contributors, “briefly” in particular, whom countenances no dissent, and whom often descends into the gutter when his musings are legitimately challenged.

  2. Boerwar, sorry slipped away for a bit. Iceland in September will avoid midges and Northern Lights are usually about. We went with https://www.nordicvisitor.com and did 12 day drive/accommodation package. Excellent but a few more days would be better. We flew to Denmark and made our way to Hirtchals where Smiril line takes three days to Iceland via Faoroe Is.

  3. Boerwar, your racist anti British petticoat is showing. Lol. BTW, that last link was really bizarre. Yep 45 ‘trillion’ it must be true, cause, cause Boerwar saw it on Wikipedia. Ha, ha, ha. You and that clam Hunt have something in common now mate!

  4. Well said BB,
    And,
    I really miss Ctar1. And Trog. I suppose it is the time of year to be remembering PBers who have most likely passed away. Vale good and dear friends/protagonists. We are better for sharing a bit of the Universe’s time with you.
    Vera
    Schnappi
    Anyone whom I cannot recall at this moment.

  5. Thanks Mavis, yes I do not take kindly to those with delusions of grandeur. I have a tendency to peg them back a mark or two. We have a few delusional, self important, pontificating wind bags on here, who need to be reigned in from time to time.

  6. Meanwhile buried during the festive holiday season, the committee investigating supposed bias in the DoJ and FBI releases its report after almost a year’s worth of inquiry.

    But after dozens of mostly closed-door interviews and months of high-profile partisan clashes, the seven-page letter comes as a remarkably quiet ending — with lawmakers offering no discernibly new insights or recommendations for how the federal law enforcement agencies erred or might improve their work.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/house-gop-releases-findings-from-probe-of-fbi-justice-department/2018/12/28/6121d162-0af9-11e9-a3f0-71c95106d96a_story.html?utm_term=.7b0e2359bc43

  7. Hard times for the poor blighters living in the Opal tower.

    Resident finds dip in tower floor

    …………..“Each time I come here, I’m ­noticing more damage.”

    Ms Daryaei said a 2cm drop had become apparent in the floor near her bedroom. She told The Weekend Australian the slant was so bad she could “roll a wine bottle down the surface of the floor”……..Ms Daryaei’s concerns are shared by many residents of the troubled Opal Tower reporting fresh cracks and damage to their apartments. ……While residents have been told they may be barred from their homes for up to 10 days, Icon’s NSW director, Julian Doyle, would not guarantee that they would be able to return within that timeframe.
    https://outline.com/Nen4YX

  8. clem attlee
    You could always try to argue the facts.
    Hint: do not go near the Mau Mau rebellion.
    20,000 plus killed. For wanting freedom!
    OR India between WW2 and Partition.
    Hundreds of thousands killed.
    Attlee had a lot of blood on his hands. Great gouts of it. Trainloads of it. Villages and towns of it.
    The weird thing is that latter day socialists still go to the trouble of extolling Attlee.
    Plus the hypocritical sod gave Stalin the Rolls Royce Jet Engine.

  9. Well as a Pom, Im quite enjoying the handwringing about the Oz test team. Having endured 30 yrs of sledging about the England team, nice to see Aussies sledging their own.

    Nice too to see the implosion of the LNP. The cherry on the top of the cake would be a new 2019 Parliament without Abbott, Dutton, Porter, Hunt and the rest of the spivs.

    It’s time.

  10. Having lived in Warringah, I remember only too well those few tentative Liberal souls who supported the Independent Peter MacDonald against Abbott but were intimidated by being photographed as they delivered pamphlets. There were others who worked behind the scenes but were also nervous about being ostracised by their business associates. So tribal…it was you were either for or against.

  11. Clem Attlee, he was someone at some time I assume, just another one amongst many who caused the deaths of shedloads of people. What people will do for ‘their country/empire/kingdom/people’etc is not nice to contemplate.

  12. Part of the first post ever on this site by William on the 12th January 2004.(so long ago)

    Greetings from the Poll Bludger

    Welcome to the first ever posting from The Poll Bludger. I am a Melbourne-based amateur psephologist hoping to use the magic of the internet to impart the accumulated wisdom of a life spent obsessing over the Australian electoral process. As anyone who is truly in touch with the aspirations of mainstream Australia can tell you, millions of people out there are crying out for a one-stop point of access for the very latest information on preselection contests, preference deals, electoral redistributions and all the other things that make Australian democracy such a uniquely pulse-quickening affair. The Poll Bludger offers all this and more.

  13. frednk @ #1845 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 7:29 pm

    Late riser
    I didn’t mean to do that. I went for (f) something else. I don’t think it will happen, but I don’t think it will be by path (e). If you add an option (h) “won’t happen; poms can no longer organize a pissup in a brewery”, I will vote that.

    No worries. 🙂 I’ll keep your (f) and put your note about breweries in the margins.

  14. clem attlee:

    Beware of the nonsence you often get when you challenge the staus quo. But judging by your posts, I guess you’re comfortable with that.

  15. Bushfire Bill – I see that the season of good will has not engendered in you a spirit of forgiveness.

    Well, perhaps I was a little harsh…

  16. Funny thing about cricket. It’s just like politics. You can never be sure that you have it in the bag.

    This much-maligned MCG pitch may yet produce the greatest boilover of the modern era. Or it could be all over in the first two balls tomorrow.

    Labor should follow Penny Wong’s advice not to count its chickens.

  17. clem attlee:

    [‘We have a few delusional, self important, pontificating wind bags on here…’]

    I have no idea whatsoever t0 whom you are referring to. That said, please keep stirring.

  18. Victoria’s Police Minister has warned the community against inciting violence after far-right activists filmed a group of men playing soccer at St Kilda Beach, refusing multiple police requests to stop recording.

    A video of the incident posted on social media by far-right activist Neil Erikson — who last year approached former Labor senator Sam Dastyari in a pub and called him a “terrorist” and a “monkey” — shows footage of young men playing soccer on the St Kilda foreshore around 5:30pm on Friday.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-29/st-kilda-clash-far-right-activists-target-young-men/10673088

    ‘Far right activist’? More like far right racist asshole.

  19. Boerwar:

    I thought this tweet was appropriate.

    Former Legend@Former_legend
    Dec 25

    This pitch is the Sco-Mo of pitches: dropped in and doing nothing.

    #AUSvIND

  20. @Toorak

    Actually I disagree, we have an election every few years, a cricket match, takes a few days.

    Plus we have vested interest in the media and big corporate.

  21. Clem Attlee is no more to blame for that than you or I. The only problem you have with him is that he was British and they can doing nothing right in your eyes and he was also a socialist. Kenya is far bit smaller than India… the last time I checked. Keep banging on, you clearly believe your own crap, as you keep spouting it over and over maybe a few other gullible fools will too.

  22. ‘clem attlee says:
    Saturday, December 29, 2018 at 9:16 pm

    Clem Attlee is no more to blame for that than you or I. ‘

    Um. He was the socialist prime minister of Great Britain. He made deliberately made decisions that he knew would end in mass death. In my book that makes him 100% responsible.

  23. The interesting thing about the Mau Mau rebellion was that it was put about by the Brits at the time, and subsequently, that the Mau Mau were terrorists and behaved badly. There was certainly some bad behaviour by the Mau Mau!
    But! As the facts come out over time, it turns out that the UK troops behaved rather badly as well, with the odd village massacre coming to light.

  24. It’s always sad to see people who were full of life and energy throughout their lives deteriorating near the end. Hawke is a character and was a bloody good PM.

  25. BW
    Mountbatten was more to blame than Atlee. Jinnah, Gandhi, Nehru and Singh were just as much to blame. An impoverished England and Churchill set the tone.

  26. One might have expected the Australian ‘Christian’ Lobby to editorialise on the moral evils of sugar daddies and sugar babies. Not to mention the apparent cover up at the highest levels of government. So far nothing.

    On the other hand, if Broad had been a Labor MP…

  27. steve davis:

    Thanks for that post.

    To the best of my recall I started posting on this site 12 years ago. I remember that the much maligned “bemused” advised me to be provocative. To my detriment I failed to heed his advice(?).

  28. citizen, you caused some unintended mirth just now. There was so much cricket on PB today my brain read “Cricket” where you wrote “Christian”. Sadly, a second look fixed it.

  29. One might have expected the Australian ‘Christian’ Lobby to editorialise on the moral evils of sugar daddies and sugar babies. Not to mention the apparent cover up at the highest levels of government. So far nothing.

    From memory they were also silent about Barnaby’s cheating on his wife and getting a woman other than his wife pregnant.

  30. These people are simply scum of the lowest order.

    Their only intent was to provoke a reaction from people harmlessly enjoying themselves.

    I can’t believe the filmers haven’t committed some offence with which they could have been or will be charged.

    Far-right activist refuses police requests to stop filming group playing soccer at St Kilda Beach

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-29/st-kilda-clash-far-right-activists-target-young-men/10673088

  31. “The weird thing is that latter day socialists still go to the trouble of extolling Attlee”

    whats weird is you apparently expecting socialists to judge Attlee harshly on his anti-imperialism stance (as if socialists live to stand up for imperialism), and presumably disregard any of his actual, considerable socialist achievements domestically.

    Though possibly not as weird as you invoking the mau mau rebellion to decry British imperialism, while simultaneously slamming the anti-imperialist policies of a British PM. BW logic innit, go figure :-p.

  32. ‘Diogenes says:
    Saturday, December 29, 2018 at 9:22 pm

    BW
    Mountbatten was more to blame than Atlee. Jinnah, Gandhi, Nehru and Singh were just as much to blame. An impoverished England and Churchill set the tone.’

    They all had blood on their hands. The main point remains: Attlee was Prime Minister. Nor was he hands off. He had an extremely high level of personal knowledge about India. He knew what the go was.
    My point is quite specific. In the absence of democracy, Colonial powers are responsible for, and accountable for, what happens in their colonies.
    At the same time as Attlee’s UK was too ‘bankrupt’ to LEAVE all the British troops stationed in India during WW2, and before Partition, the Attlee Government was spending trainloads of money nationalizing expensive stuff in the UK. In other words there were deliberate choices being made with the available resources. Those choices systematically favoured the English at the expense of the Indians.
    Despite Britain being ‘bankrupt’, Attlee was somehow able to send British troops to the Korean War. Britain ran an aircraft carrier on station for the duration of that war. On the far side of the world. Not cheap. Similarly, Attlee built a major military base in Kenya. This was subsequently used in the killing of 20,000 Kenyans using around 10,000 UK regulars and around 30,000 mercenaries. The Mau Mau rebellion cost 55 million quid to quell.
    The notion that Britain could not have done much, much more to reduce the death rate in British India before Independence is a lie – and a nasty one at that.

  33. Most people remember Attlee as a great humanitarian who introduced the welfare state and the NHS, a man who was determined to liberate India. But not good ole Boer he wants to smear the man with un warranted accusations that he was responsible for an Indian civil war. I think the Indians themselves might be to blame for that, just a little bit.

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