Newspoll quarterly aggregates: October to December 2018

Newspoll offers a more nuanced look at the electoral disaster that appears to await the Coalition.

The Australian has published Newspoll’s final quarterly aggregate for the year, with state breakdowns showing Labor leading 54-46 in New South Wales (unchanged on the previous quarter), 56-44 in Victoria (down from 57-43), 54-46 in Queensland (unchanged), 53-47 in Western Australia (down from 54-46) and 58-42 in South Australia (unchanged). As The Australian’s report notes, it also records a nine point increase in Scott Morrison’s disapproval rating outside the five mainland capitals, from 38% to 47%, while his approval is down from 42% to 39%. In the capitals, Morrison is down two on approval to 42% and up five on disapproval to 44%. However, this doesn’t feed through to voting intention, on which Labor’s lead is steady at 56-44 in the capitals, but down from 54-46 to 53-47 elsewhere.

There are no gender or age breakdowns included, so expect those to be published separately over the coming days. We should also get aggregated quarterly state breakdowns from Ipsos in what used to be the Fairfax papers at some point.

UPDATE: Newspoll’s gender and age breakdowns have indeed been published in The Australian today. As with the state breakdowns, these yield little change on voting intention, with the arguable exception of Labor’s primary vote being down two among the 18-34s to 44%, and up two among the 35-49s to 43%. However, the decline noted yesterday in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings among regional voters is matched in the 50-plus cohort, among whom he is down six on approval to 42% and up nine on disapproval to 45%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,003 comments on “Newspoll quarterly aggregates: October to December 2018”

  1. GG@7:04pm
    Were you at G?
    Cummins single handedly kept Australia in the game for last 2 days. He is having a blinder. Commentators stopped talking about Indian team and started singing praises of Cummins.

  2. Nicholas it’s too hot for an economics lesson. It’s holiday time have a drink or whatever and give it a break for a few days.
    Smell the roses. The Sound of Music is on.

  3. DareToTread and Barney have been having a discussion about language in India, triggered by something I said.

    My position is and remains that Europe is perfectly capable of uniting, just like India has. DtT takes the view that English as a common second language in India gives it a unifying structure that means that it is capable of uniting, whereas Europe lacks that.

    I think in his argumentation, DtT has shot himself in the foot. He keeps claiming that language is the consequence of union, but turns around and argues that it is a necessary precondition. How can the courts of a unified country using largely English cause the unified country to exist? It seems clear that English is so successful in India precisely because it is a union.

    I think Nicholas’s argument, that India was unified by the British, has some weight, but perhaps not enough. After all, the Indians unified India, not the British, using military force in many cases. But the fact that one country was brought about by military force does not mean that every country needs to be brought about by military force.

    And in any case, anyone claiming that Europe is more culturally and linguistically diverse than India has rocks in their head. In Europe cultural diversity means how you play a particular code of football, which branch of Latin Christianity your parents stopped practising, and allegedly whether your country votes for policies with a high or low degree of redistribution. European traditions are something you pull out of a museum once a year. And almost all the linguistic diversity in Europe can be distilled into whether you speak a dialect of Latin, a dialect of Germanic, or a dialect of Slavic. Seriously: what Europeans insist must be treated as distinct languages are called dialects in the rest of the world. If that’s too much cultural and linguistic diversity to contain in one state, then I’m afraid there’s going to be rather a lot of secession in the next ten minutes.

  4. 2019 is a mere few days away.

    What can we expect on the political scene?

    Shorten and Labor will have a modest win

    The Trump saga will come to a shocking end.

    Meanwhile, the stock market will cop a bruising and the world economy will get the wobbles.

    Brexit won’t happen

  5. sprocket:

    From the Vote Tony Out Insta page…

    My wife and I voted for Tony in the 2013 election. We were Liberal Party supporters and for a while we were happy our local member was Prime Minister. However his destructive style of politics began to grate on us and it became obvious that his views and policies were very out of step with us, and everyone we knew in Warringah. Maybe the Liberal Party changed, Tony changed, maybe Warringah changed. It seems a mixture of all three. It’s clear now that this bloke is not representative of the people of Warringah.

    Tony thinks that “the argument behind climate change is complete crap” contrary to international concensus and the opinions of almost all scientists. He has failed to grasp the amazing economics of solar power, and has frustrated attempts by his own party to create policy which would encourage private investment in renewable energy. He’s currently running around saying the government should fund a coal-fired power station, when the private sector can see full well that this is commercial madness in an age of steadily falling renewable energy costs.
    Add to this that he abandoned his electorate who voted 75% in favour of Same Sex Marriage, and knighted Prince Philip – who Wikipedia says already has 94 other titles and honours.
    The time has come for change, if the Liberal Party won’t do it then Warringah will Vote Tony Out.

    Hugh McGuire

    I’d love to see an independent candidate with a genuine shot at taking the seat from him throw their hat in the ring next year.

  6. 2019 is a mere few days away.

    What can we expect on the political scene?

    Shorten and Labor will have a modest win – agree

    The Trump saga will come to a shocking end – I hope so but I think it will just rumble on

    Meanwhile, the stock market will cop a bruising and the world economy will get the wobbles. – agree

    Brexit – I think it will happen, might be postoned, but what a mess.

  7. Felix @ #1803 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 6:17 pm

    DareToTread and Barney have been having a discussion about language in India, triggered by something I said.

    My position is and remains that Europe is perfectly capable of uniting, just like India has. DtT takes the view that English as a common second language in India gives it a unifying structure that means that it is capable of uniting, whereas Europe lacks that.

    I think in his argumentation, DtT has shot himself in the foot. He keeps claiming that language is the consequence of union, but turns around and argues that it is a necessary precondition. How can the courts of a unified country using largely English cause the unified country to exist? It seems clear that English is so successful in India precisely because it is a union.

    I think Nicholas’s argument, that India was unified by the British, has some weight, but perhaps not enough. After all, the Indians unified India, not the British, using military force in many cases. But the fact that one country was brought about by military force does not mean that every country needs to be brought about by military force.

    And in any case, anyone claiming that Europe is more culturally and linguistically diverse than India has rocks in their head. In Europe cultural diversity means how you play a particular code of football, which branch of Latin Christianity your parents stopped practising, and allegedly whether your country votes for policies with a high or low degree of redistribution. European traditions are something you pull out of a museum once a year. And almost all the linguistic diversity in Europe can be distilled into whether you speak a dialect of Latin, a dialect of Germanic, or a dialect of Slavic. Seriously: what Europeans insist must be treated as distinct languages are called dialects in the rest of the world. If that’s too much cultural and linguistic diversity to contain in one state, then I’m afraid there’s going to be rather a lot of secession in the next ten minutes.

    felix

    Stop oversimplifying matters.

    I basically agree with much of what you say but not all. India did not really unify itself but rather the British. along with railways it was the brutish contribution.

    Having a common language makes it easier to unify especially when that language is not the one belonging to a particular dominant state. Imagine how resentful Victorians would be if NSW imposed a language of Rumese on the rest of the country because of its economic power.

    Also my Indian history is not strong but i do not think there is a very long history of bloody wars, at least not between the Hindu states. This means that there is less of a legacy of hostility to overcome. it was the Muslim invaders who united the Hindu in opposition hence it is Pakistan which is the common enemy.

    Now I did NOT claim language was the consequence of union, rather that it permitted a much easier union because of shared courts systems and governance and educational communication. Since some people in Tamil Nadu bunt themselves to avoid being forced to use Hindi i think i am safe in saying it was a sensitive issue.

    Now I think that the EU COULD have worked if they had not expanded so rapidly and gradually grew, only allowing countries in after say 30-50 yeas of functioning democracy. By expanding east so quickly they have allowed in too many states which are still mendicant and where democratic norms are not yet deeply entrenched. Both Poland and Hungary and even Austria are currently under censure for breaching democratic requirements of the EU and given they are still net dependent states for others of the EU I predict it will not end well. Frankly I cannot see Italy or France accepting a larger outflow of funds to Poland, once UK leaves.

  8. there is this bakery on the way to Kapunda from Adelaide. It is in a small village consisting mainly of the petrol station. The bakert products are the best anywhere, I swear. I cannot see how anyone can top it. I do not know the name of it or the stop, but I know where to pull over and spend up big! Last time I got a Beesting cake. I am drooling just thinking of it.

  9. DTT

    Something the Indian continent could unite over
    .
    .
    How Britain stole $45 trillion from India
    And lied about it.

    Prior to the colonial period, Britain bought goods like textiles and rice from Indian producers and paid for them in the normal way – mostly with silver – as they did with any other country. But something changed in 1765, shortly after the East India Company took control of the subcontinent and established a monopoly over Indian trade.

    Here’s how it worked…………………
    https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/britain-stole-45-trillion-india-181206124830851.html

  10. Funny story, at least to me.
    At the ALP conference, I met Bill Shorten and got his autograph. (by strategic placement at the end of the stage at the finish of the last day}

    Earlier I got a selfie with Nick Champion, and I asked about a Shorten autograph. He regarded it as impossible to get an autograph at the Conference but he kindly offered to take whatever I wanted signed to Canberra and he would ask Bill to sign it.

    I am working out when I can drop into Nick’s electoral office wearing the Conference pass with Bill’s moniker on it.
    lol

  11. Coles can shove its Hot Cross buns up its clacker, and the baking trays with it.
    I rarely shop in ColesWorth, being an IGA/Foodland shopper, but this is the sort of thing that drives me away from these f#ckwits.

  12. Felix says:
    Saturday, December 29, 2018 at 7:17 pm

    Felix, it’s worth knowing that dtt argues with the intention of proving the EU is doomed, particularly because it has incorporated the territories, colonies, dependencies and domininions of the former USSR. They are Russia Today’s voice at PB. Consequently, nothing they say makes much sense.

  13. Confessions @ #1821 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 7:00 pm

    I also think Brexit will be postponed.

    Got it. And if anyone wants to post an opinion, I am still harvesting. So far I have 15 opinions.

    18% (a) Hard Brexit – No Deal
    0% (b) Soft Brexit – Deal
    24% (c) Postponed Brexit – Negotiations Continue
    18% (d) Postponed Brexit – New Referendum
    6% (e) Withdrawn Brexit
    18% (f) Something else
    18% (g) Don’t care

  14. Puffy:

    Yes, it’s all incredibly commercial. I refuse to buy into the easter thing, and don’t celebrate/recognise easter at all other than for having a few days off work.

  15. Catmomma really does live in her own little bubble doesn’t she… it’s oh so comfy in there alongside Briefly, GG and Boer and other sundry right wingers. She really has her own alternate reality, must truly be comforting.

  16. PB is a community in many ways. And we only kid ourselves that we are anonymous. I hazard that most posters feel protective of their PB names and personalities, just as I am Late Riser, for better or worse.

    So it’s the end of the year. The nature of this place is that departures are not obvious; with rare exceptions people fade away. And while most departures are likely benign I expect some are not. Perhaps William Bowe has insights with his deeper knowledge of the activity of accounts and email addresses?

    I recall Trog Sorrenson. He loved PV energy. In his last posts he described his life threatening illness, and in typical PB style he taught himself about his illness and shared openly. His lively scraps live in my memory. Vale Trog.

    I’m sure there are others.
    🙁

    frednk @ #1830 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 7:17 pm

    Late Riser 100/15 is not 6.

    Very true, but multiples are allowed. In fact you are one of two who have two guesses.

  17. My message to Hugh McGuire (who voted for Abbott in 2013):

    “Anyone could see that Abbott was a destructive dickhead in 2013. Same as he was in 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009 and all the way back to the miserable, benighted year this idiot was born. I saw it. And millions of others did.

    WE didn’t vote for him. WE didn’t make jokes about Julia Gillard’s fat arse or her “small breasts”. WE didn’t giggle at cheapjack TV “comedies” made about her private life (nor did we get a chance to giggle at similar shows concerning Abbott’s toxic family relations. The ABC you are always whingeing about as “political” must have run out of budget). WE didn’t suddenly decide that Labor’s action in making us one of a handful of countries worldwide to survive the GFC (and save your sorry, ungrateful fucking yuppie hides) was a socialist plot to ruin the economy.

    And when all that was said and done, when there was no excuse for ignoring his rampant fuckheadery, and that of the pathetic collection of spivs, shonks and outright crooks laughingly referred to as the “Liberal” party that he represented, WE didn’t vote for the arsehole AGAIN in 2016.

    So take your handwringing, doctors’ wives, plonking, condescending, ersatz concerns for the environment and your fellow man and shove them up your fat jacksy with that overpriced split level house in Mosman or Clontarf or French’s Forest (or wherever you carry out your self-indulgent excuse for living) as a stopper… and you just might be forgiven.”

  18. WTF? Yeah Boer, that link is so central to the debate about a bankrupt Britain not having the money to pay for a contingent of troops to serve in India…okay… rightio then…

  19. Mavis Smith

    It is a display of my being too slack arske to do blockquotes to separate/distinguish my writing from the article quoted. Oh for the good old days of just a [

  20. LR….common sense says they should revoke their withdrawal, pause, reflect, discuss and then have another referendum. But there’s no majority for anything in the Commons. The existing status quo – Brexit without a deal – will most likely hold simply because nothing else can pass the Parliament and there’s no time for any alternative to be established. There will be chaos in the UK. There will be a renewed sense of common purpose in the EU.

    There will be a lot of buyer’s remorse in the UK. The country will be divided for decades to come.

    Most likely – No Deal Brexit

  21. ‘clem attlee says:
    Saturday, December 29, 2018 at 8:24 pm

    WTF? Yeah Boer, that link is so central to the debate about a bankrupt Britain not having the money to pay for a contingent of troops to serve in India…okay… rightio then…’

    Britain had no problem at all screwing India out of $45 trillion. Attlee’s parting gift was to set up genocidal massacres BEFORE Partition.

    What a man!

  22. Bushfire:

    In March Abbott will have been 25 years in the seat. Obviously these Vote Tony Out people haven’t been paying attention if they’ve only just twigged he’s an AGW denying, anti-equality fuddy-duddy.

  23. Late riser
    I didn’t mean to do that. I went for (f) something else. I don’t think it will happen, but I don’t think it will be by path (e). If you add an option (h) “won’t happen; poms can no longer organize a pissup in a brewery”, I will vote for that.

  24. I would have thought that lots of sequential question marks means that there are lots of questions to answer – most likely by Bill Shorten.

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