Newspoll quarterly aggregates: October to December 2018

Newspoll offers a more nuanced look at the electoral disaster that appears to await the Coalition.

The Australian has published Newspoll’s final quarterly aggregate for the year, with state breakdowns showing Labor leading 54-46 in New South Wales (unchanged on the previous quarter), 56-44 in Victoria (down from 57-43), 54-46 in Queensland (unchanged), 53-47 in Western Australia (down from 54-46) and 58-42 in South Australia (unchanged). As The Australian’s report notes, it also records a nine point increase in Scott Morrison’s disapproval rating outside the five mainland capitals, from 38% to 47%, while his approval is down from 42% to 39%. In the capitals, Morrison is down two on approval to 42% and up five on disapproval to 44%. However, this doesn’t feed through to voting intention, on which Labor’s lead is steady at 56-44 in the capitals, but down from 54-46 to 53-47 elsewhere.

There are no gender or age breakdowns included, so expect those to be published separately over the coming days. We should also get aggregated quarterly state breakdowns from Ipsos in what used to be the Fairfax papers at some point.

UPDATE: Newspoll’s gender and age breakdowns have indeed been published in The Australian today. As with the state breakdowns, these yield little change on voting intention, with the arguable exception of Labor’s primary vote being down two among the 18-34s to 44%, and up two among the 35-49s to 43%. However, the decline noted yesterday in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings among regional voters is matched in the 50-plus cohort, among whom he is down six on approval to 42% and up nine on disapproval to 45%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,003 comments on “Newspoll quarterly aggregates: October to December 2018”

  1. I was in Madrid, and there were three bull kills an hour, one every twenty minutes, and the adds slotted in perfectly.

    I couldn’t watch, and returned the bull fight tickets to the hotel desk, and told lies about why I wasn’t able to go.

  2. I have heard of Rod Marsh being called ‘stumpy’. But it wasnt ever his nickname. Maybe it was given to him from people outside the circle.

    David Boon was occasionally called ‘stumpy’. After one particular flight to Londan he was briefly called ‘stubby’.

    I think Bruce Laird was also called ‘stumpy’.

  3. ItzaDream @ #1754 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 5:34 pm

    I was in Madrid, and there were three bull kills an hour, one every twenty minutes, and the adds slotted in perfectly.

    I couldn’t watch, and returned the bull fight tickets to the hotel desk, and told lies about why I wasn’t able to go.

    Yeah, it is barbaric stuff. Not just for the bulls, those poor horses were hurt too. I think the fight should be fairer. The bullfighter should wear a blindfold on his/her eyes. And eating the bull’s balls afterwards is just impolite.

  4. ‘PuffyTMD says:
    Saturday, December 29, 2018 at 6:04 pm

    Boerwar,
    I think that is fair. They could call the kid Dennis the Tennis Menace.’

    haha

  5. People still watch the Cricket? I thought all that ended when Warne and McGrath retired. I haven’t watched a match since. It would be like listening to your aunt play the piano after watching Beethoven live for a decade.

  6. Looks like the NSW state election is going to include terror. Goulburn super max prison to be doubled.
    All those 16 yo terrorists have got to go somewhere.

  7. Anyone seen this new Netflix show Black Mirror: Bandersnatch? Apparently it is the first ‘choose your own adventure’ with millions of possible paths based on what you choose for the character.

  8. Actually scratch what I said about there not being a replacement captain for Paine. Give it to Cummo. If leading by example is worth a jot he’s got it in spades.

    Hopefully Lyon and he can stick it out tomorrow morning to get him a well deserved ton.

    and then Melbourne’s weather can piss it down in buckets for a completely undeserved draw.

  9. Nah. It didn’t Puffy. Might have to crack the red staring at me…
    Cooling now. Only 36 after being 40ish he re in Chifley. The seat.

    #weatheronPB

  10. Sigh. WordPress fun and games.

    I got to see an image starting with “Old Kapunda DISTILLERY” by pasting the following into a new tab, without the spaces.

    h t t p s : / / imgur.com/ gallery/ nvTFdZf / #image.jpg

  11. Swamp

    @sirswampthing
    6m6 minutes ago
    More
    Pat Cummins about to join this list
    AUS players being both highest run scorer and wicket taker in a Test
    John Lyons
    Hugh Trumble
    Warwick Armstrong
    Roy Minnett
    Ray Lindwall
    Keith Miller
    Richie Benaud (x2)
    Bob Simpson
    Greg Matthews
    Mitchell Johnson
    @cricketcomau #AUSvIND

  12. There was a young man from The Coalition
    Whose puny breast burned with ambition
    So he bought a blue tie
    And learned how to lie
    And morphed into a perfect Lib politician.

  13. “Anyone know if Barnaby has actually achieved anything as “drought envoy”? (Stupid title. )

    Sweet Fanny Adams.”

    thats not fair. 🙁 He would have had a pay rise or at least access to more travel allowance. theres and achievement!! 🙂

  14. It’s also important to know that federal taxation deletes currency. Federal taxation does not gather, collect, or hoard currency for the government to spend later. The government creates currency by spending it into the non-government sector thousands of times every day by writing up numbers in Exchange Settlement Accounts accounts at the RBA. The government destroys currency by deleting it from the non-government sector by writing down numbers in ESA accounts at the RBA.

    This is in relation to currency issuing governments that don’t promise to convert their currencies into something they could run out of.

    If you are the issuer of something, whether it’s currency or discount vouchers, you have to issue it first to get it out there BEFORE you can collect and redeem it. You can’t collect it first and then issue it. Nobody would have it if you haven’t created it first.

    State and local governments are mere currency users, like households and firms. They do indeed need to gather currency so that they can spend currency.

  15. “All within a 70 year period before the planet resets. Be careful what you wish for.”

    Considering that a Yellowstone event would leave most or all of the USA uninhabitable for some years…yup, be careful what you wish for. 🙁

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