Newspoll quarterly aggregates: October to December 2018

Newspoll offers a more nuanced look at the electoral disaster that appears to await the Coalition.

The Australian has published Newspoll’s final quarterly aggregate for the year, with state breakdowns showing Labor leading 54-46 in New South Wales (unchanged on the previous quarter), 56-44 in Victoria (down from 57-43), 54-46 in Queensland (unchanged), 53-47 in Western Australia (down from 54-46) and 58-42 in South Australia (unchanged). As The Australian’s report notes, it also records a nine point increase in Scott Morrison’s disapproval rating outside the five mainland capitals, from 38% to 47%, while his approval is down from 42% to 39%. In the capitals, Morrison is down two on approval to 42% and up five on disapproval to 44%. However, this doesn’t feed through to voting intention, on which Labor’s lead is steady at 56-44 in the capitals, but down from 54-46 to 53-47 elsewhere.

There are no gender or age breakdowns included, so expect those to be published separately over the coming days. We should also get aggregated quarterly state breakdowns from Ipsos in what used to be the Fairfax papers at some point.

UPDATE: Newspoll’s gender and age breakdowns have indeed been published in The Australian today. As with the state breakdowns, these yield little change on voting intention, with the arguable exception of Labor’s primary vote being down two among the 18-34s to 44%, and up two among the 35-49s to 43%. However, the decline noted yesterday in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings among regional voters is matched in the 50-plus cohort, among whom he is down six on approval to 42% and up nine on disapproval to 45%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,003 comments on “Newspoll quarterly aggregates: October to December 2018”

  1. “Ian Chappell calls for Finch and Mitch Marsh to be axed:

    “You can’t keep sticking with guys who aren’t good enough,” Chappell says on Macquarie Sports Radio. “When you’re droping a bloke who is averaging 35 and pick a guy who is averaging the same in first-class cricket you’re in deep trouble. You’re in quicksand and going down fast.

    “Finch and Mitch Marsh have to be replaced but you can’t bring Handscomb back.””

    _____________________________

    I swore that I’d never tilt at this particular windmill eve again, but desperate times call for desperate measures: is there any chance that Shane Watson be a late shock call up for M Marsh? He’s playing well in the BBL and could probably send down a dozen overs of tight medium pace and would frankly be a better chance of getting a 50 with the bat than any of the other No.6 alternatives going around.

    Speaking of Quixotic remedies … does anyone thing that the Board could have done worse than take up Michael Clark’s offer to come back as Captain alla Bobby Simpson earlier this year?

  2. “CA should have released their findings as to what happened, so the whole picture was exposed minus personal self interest.”

    Agree 100% Barney, should definitely have all be laid open, the evidence, the claims and the conclusions drawn, that is open and transparent. Having failed at almost every hurdle Cricket Australia is a disgrace, and it is more responsible even than the most guilty of the trio of cheaters.

    “The continued re-cycling of Mitch Marsh is illogical and unfair. Making the same selection mistake again and again is insane.”

    Even if he doesn’t make your standards, coming from the wrong State and all, it is entirely possible, no wait, entirely evident there is no one better to take the place or they would. Only thing I’ve heard on the channel 7 commentary since they bought the cricket with Rupert (another massive idiotic failure by Cricket Australia) that I agreed with is that you don’t just put every NSW young player into the test team, let them earn their stripes in shield cricket first.

  3. caf @ #1698 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 4:57 pm

    Krakatoa created a sound so loud it was heard on the other side of the Indian Ocean.

    http://nautil.us/blog/the-sound-so-loud-that-it-circled-the-earth-four-times

    The Krakatoa explosion registered 172 decibels at 100 miles from the source. This is so astonishingly loud, that it’s inching up against the limits of what we mean by “sound.”

    172 decibels at 100 miles

    cf

    Noise Source —— Jet take-off (at 25 meters)
    Decibel level ——-150
    Comment ———Eardrum rupture

    So, at 100 miles, Krakatoa was louder than a jet taking off at 25 metres.

    #BOOOOM.

  4. “Watto’s given up bowling even in the BBL.

    We can’t fix the problem he was a massive symptom of by going back to that.”

    So, it’s definitely going to happen, then.

  5. I disagree with Observer that Cummins will ever be a top 6 bat, but I can easily see him developing into a guy who will score a couple of tons and good for a 30+ average. Could even force his way to 7 if we’re struggling to find a keeper that can bat as well. Has a lovely simple technique, plays straight, puts value on his wicket. The top six should be watching closely.

  6. “If Yellowstone went up, people would forget about Trump very quickly!”

    If Yellowstone goes up there won’t be people to forget about Trump. At least in the lower 48

  7. Cummins is a strike bowler who is handy with the willow. Like Johnson and Warne. That’s not an all rounder. However, by current Australian standards he’s probably rated as a top order bat.

  8. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Saturday, December 29, 2018 at 5:15 pm

    “If Yellowstone went up, people would forget about Trump very quickly!”

    If Yellowstone goes up there won’t be people to forget about Trump. At least in the lower 48
    _________________________
    It would put a stop to global warming. I think there would be people, but they would be covered in ash and nothing will grow for a while, so maybe they not build that wall, might enable the Trump family to flee to Mexico seeing that planes will be out of action.

  9. “It would put a stop to global warming. I think there would be people, but they would be covered in ash and nothing will grow for a while, so maybe they not build that wall, might enable the Trump family to flee to Mexico seeing that planes will be out of action.”

    There is a documentary called “the history of oil” (I think) showing the geological link between epic volcanic episodes, subsequent greenhouse global warming, ocean anoxia, mass extinction events leading to the biomass being deposited on the ocean floor which ultimately becomes oil. All within a 70 year period before the planet resets. Be careful what you wish for.

  10. Well yes, volcanic eruptions temporarily cause cooling but release greenhouse gases in the long run that cause long term warming. I’m not wishing for any volcanic explosions and the deaths of millions, at least at present.

  11. A very large asteroid strike might generate enough stuff to halt global warming.
    Another possibility is a massive new period of global- or continental-scale vulcanism.
    I don’t think people are going to stop global warming.
    But global warming might slow people down a fair bit.
    It reminds me of the sort of ecological/population studies popular around half a century ago.
    They basically consisted of creating optimum conditions for fruit fly in an aquarium and then adding fruit flies to see what would happen.
    There was always a boom followed by a bust.

  12. My understanding is that the 1883 Krakatoa explosion was major, but not a super volcano event. The one to watch is Yellowstone. If and when that blows it will be more in line with a Lake Toba style event.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Toba

    At this scale the sizes of volcanic eruptions are compared by orders of magnitude.
    The largest known one is Lake Taupo, in the North Island of New Zealand. Well worth a visit.

    Krakatoa was 6 on the helpful Volcanic Explosivity Index, Lake Taupo (and Yellowstone) an 8, 100x bigger.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_Explosivity_Index

  13. ratsak
    I reckon if our team were to play under Indian management for a couple of years – and in their domestic competition – they would be an entirely different outfit.

  14. On volcanoes, the Icelandic ones can be extremely toxic. Fluorine and other elements have wiped out domestic sheep flocks and (I will attempt to find the source of this) caused the deaths of 20000+ people in Europe after one particular eruption. If Yellowstone blows, a nuclear winter is highly likely.

  15. BK
    Our national cricket team is woeful. I am an occasional watcher of Test Cricket. There are not many occaisons in this Test series so far when I have sat down with Meoldema to watch a full session, let alone a game.

    I am rapidly getting sick of sport made for television instead of televised sport.

  16. One of the symmetrical beauties of our Anthropocene Extinction Event is that we are creating an endless array of newly vacant niches.
    Evolution will have its way… eventually!
    The problem may be that the new species that fill these niches are much more likely to be pest animals and weeds.

  17. I have always thought it a possibility that after or during AGW, something like a massive supervolcano eruption would occur, so we would be dealing with an ice-age as well. We are going to have to give up our competitiveness for collective effort. Or women will have to clean up the freakin mess, as usual.

  18. Boerwar, I was always intrigued by the definition of weeds that was used at university many years ago, they are “pioneers of secondary succession “ so pretty much , if you disrupt an environment and it’s balance (Agriculture , volcanic eruptions etc) then weeds rush in to take advantage.

  19. BK

    And that’s the issue.
    Australians are used to beating India in Australia. Indians were generally regarded as good players if lacking competitive instinct and not able to adapt to our conditions.
    Times have changed and the diehards don’t like it.
    They want nice batsmen who make the odd hundred and clever spinners who don’t take too many wickets and fielders who drop catches and fumble ground balls.
    Not fast bowlers with the skill and brains to bowl 114kmh Yorkers.

  20. Boerwar, yes, Iceland seems well capable of dishing up serious eruptions and not your usual cone shaped ones, more likely along fissures formed by the pushing apart of the crust and mostly they are under ice sheets that add to the intensity of the eruptions. Fascinating place to visit.

  21. BK
    That is why Gridiron bores the hell out of me. If they just played, like rugby instead of designing the game to have more ad breaks than play, I might find the time to understand it.

    What I love about football as in soccer is that the 45 minute halves do not stop except for injury. Adrenaline and/or frustration does not drop until half time and end of play. Rugby, hockey etc also are good for this. Aussie Rules on TV has some adverts shoved in, but not too badly. Basketball: It takes ten minutes to play 30 seconds of play, or so it seems.

    I do not know about Baseball. I don’t watch games where men play in their pajamas.

  22. DB
    ‘Fascinating place to visit.’
    I am seriously considering just that. I would appreciate advice on best time of the year and best things to do.

  23. I like to watch a good tennis match but I abhor this idea of men playing only three sets. I think women should play five like the men. Why they play three I do not know. Women are perfectly able to be in labor for childbirth for three days and still recover quite well. Five sets of tennis should be a cakewalk for a fit young woman.

  24. ‘Dog’s Breakfast says:
    Saturday, December 29, 2018 at 5:47 pm

    Boerwar, I was always intrigued by the definition of weeds that was used at university many years ago, they are “pioneers of secondary succession “ so pretty much , if you disrupt an environment and it’s balance (Agriculture , volcanic eruptions etc) then weeds rush in to take advantage.’

    I prefer the definition that says that if a plant gets in the way of human aspirations, it is a weed. Every single thing that people do create opportunities for weeds.

    The approach you describe is based on the notion of ecological succession.

    For example, eucalypts are usually climax species. In a fire dependent landscape they usually arrive after the weedy species – often acacias which are first to thrive after a fire.
    But when you translocate eucs to other ecological systems they can behave in an invasive weedy fashion in systems which in their native state have reached climax.
    One reason is that the pathogens and pests that normally restrain plants in their home ecologies are often missing in their translocated sites.
    So defining a weed simply by way of using succession is inadequate, IMO.

  25. I may need to switch to wine. Red or white. And I think I missed lunch. My son got me a 40-inch touchscreen monitor (second hand) for Xmas and I am loving it.

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