Newspoll quarterly aggregates: October to December 2018

Newspoll offers a more nuanced look at the electoral disaster that appears to await the Coalition.

The Australian has published Newspoll’s final quarterly aggregate for the year, with state breakdowns showing Labor leading 54-46 in New South Wales (unchanged on the previous quarter), 56-44 in Victoria (down from 57-43), 54-46 in Queensland (unchanged), 53-47 in Western Australia (down from 54-46) and 58-42 in South Australia (unchanged). As The Australian’s report notes, it also records a nine point increase in Scott Morrison’s disapproval rating outside the five mainland capitals, from 38% to 47%, while his approval is down from 42% to 39%. In the capitals, Morrison is down two on approval to 42% and up five on disapproval to 44%. However, this doesn’t feed through to voting intention, on which Labor’s lead is steady at 56-44 in the capitals, but down from 54-46 to 53-47 elsewhere.

There are no gender or age breakdowns included, so expect those to be published separately over the coming days. We should also get aggregated quarterly state breakdowns from Ipsos in what used to be the Fairfax papers at some point.

UPDATE: Newspoll’s gender and age breakdowns have indeed been published in The Australian today. As with the state breakdowns, these yield little change on voting intention, with the arguable exception of Labor’s primary vote being down two among the 18-34s to 44%, and up two among the 35-49s to 43%. However, the decline noted yesterday in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings among regional voters is matched in the 50-plus cohort, among whom he is down six on approval to 42% and up nine on disapproval to 45%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,003 comments on “Newspoll quarterly aggregates: October to December 2018”

  1. ItzaDream @ #1643 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 12:02 pm

    Apparently when daddy Krakatoa blew and collapsed in 1883, Northern Hemisphere summer temps dropped av 1.2C.

    They apparently only finally realised what had happened to daddy when a ship sailed into Batavia a few days later commented with WTTE, isn’t there meant to be a volcano in the middle of the Sunda Strait.

  2. Labor keeping a sensible pressure on Gladys. Not a good look, Gladys. That would be not good under pressure Gladys, that one.

    The opposition leader, Michael Daley, who visited the building on Friday, criticised the premier, Gladys Berejiklian, for failing to inspect the site.

    “I am here again today to ask the premier to show some leadership and look after these people,” Daley told reporters.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/dec/28/sydney-opal-tower-residents-refuse-to-leave-olympic-park-high-rise

  3. Burns for Finch. Patterson for M Marsh. Head to bowl a bit in Sydney. That’s about as good as we can do right now.

    In the mid term the return of Warner and Smith will stiffen up the batting, but what is really needed is a return of Sheffield Shield to a position of primacy in domestic cricket. I have a few radical (probably stupid) ideas for that:

    I notice the initiative of having the second half of the shield comp played with Dukes balls, apparently in order to get first class players used to playing with them and hence assist our ashes touring parties. Bollocks to that. What’s the point of playing first class cricket in Australia with a ball that will never be used at test level in Australia? How is that going to help players adjust to English conditions. Peak stupid right there. What I’d humbly suggest as an alternative is to ship the whole shield competition over to England for an early start – say in September and the first two weeks of October for the first 4 matches. Then resume back in Australia for another 4-6 weeks before the first test with the whole competition being run before xmas. That way there is a focus on the long form of the game for four straight months, providing ample opportunity for our domestic elite to hone their long form skills uninterrupted by the shorter form circuses. Further – those first four games per year in England will give our bats the chance to develop into something. more than front foot bullies.

    Secondly, I’d only start the BBL just before xmas – once the shield season has finished. Once the Boxing Day and New Year tests are over there would be a 6-8 week focus on the shorter forms of the game to see out the end of summer and allow our international teams in those formats to hit their stride.

    Thirdly, in autumn every year there should be a long full strength Australia A tour of the places that have caused our test team grief Tovar event years. In other words – every second year a tour of England and every other year a tour of the subcontinent. The remaining domestic players can either strive for club glory or go off and play T20 cricket somewhere.

  4. The idea that the players involved in cheating and serving their time should have just stayed silent seems pretty stupid. This desired code of silence is the kind of behaviour you see in a culture that breeds bad behaviour, it also acts discourages honesty, openness and growth. The kind of things you want to see if you want a team you can be proud of win lose or draw.

    Of course if you love cheats and cheating and only winning matters then clearly you’d have loved the old Australian / NSW team culture and hope for it to stay as strong as it can as it batters the storms of honesty and good sporting behaviours.

  5. Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, December 29, 2018 at 3:54 pm
    Completely over-the-top nonsense. Get a grip.

    I agree Rex. Over the top nonsense is your thing and others should not intrude.

  6. I notice on Twitter mavis that Geoff Boycott’s brother, Fred, is whinging that Geoffrey never got a knighthood whilst averaging 47.
    Meanwhile Cook averaged 45 in test cricket.
    He has a point.

  7. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1648 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 4:21 pm

    Burns for Finch. Patterson for M Marsh. Head to bowl a bit in Sydney. That’s about as good as we can do right now.

    In the mid term the return of Warner and Smith will stiffen up the batting, but what is really needed is a return of Sheffield Shield to a position of primacy in domestic cricket. I have a few radical (probably stupid) ideas for that:

    I notice the initiative of having the second half of the shield comp played with Dukes balls, apparently in order to get first class players used to playing with them and hence assist our ashes touring parties. Bollocks to that. What’s the point of playing first class cricket in Australia with a ball that will never be used at test level in Australia? How is that going to help players adjust to English conditions. Peak stupid right there. What I’d humbly suggest as an alternative is to ship the whole shield competition over to England for an early start – say in September and the first two weeks of October for the first 4 matches. Then resume back in Australia for another 4-6 weeks before the first test with the whole competition being run before xmas. That way there is a focus on the long form of the game for four straight months, providing ample opportunity for our domestic elite to hone their long form skills uninterrupted by the shorter form circuses. Further – those first four games per year in England will give our bats the chance to develop into something. more than front foot bullies.

    Secondly, I’d only start the BBL just before xmas – once the shield season has finished. Once the Boxing Day and New Year tests are over there would be a 6-8 week focus on the shorter forms of the game to see out the end of summer and allow our international teams in those formats to hit their stride.

    Thirdly, in autumn every year there should be a long full strength Australia A tour of the places that have caused our test team grief Tovar event years. In other words – every second year a tour of England and every other year a tour of the subcontinent. The remaining domestic players can either strive for club glory or go off and play T20 cricket somewhere.

    CA should just ditch the Kookaburra altogether and go with the Duke ball full time.

  8. WeWantPaul @ #1654 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 12:22 pm

    The idea that the players involved in cheating and serving their time should have just stayed silent seems pretty stupid. This desired code of silence is the kind of behaviour you see in a culture that breeds bad behaviour, it also acts discourages honesty, openness and growth. The kind of things you want to see if you want a team you can be proud of win lose or draw.

    Of course if you love cheats and cheating and only winning matters then clearly you’d have loved the old Australian / NSW team culture and hope for it to stay as strong as it can as it batters the storms of honesty and good sporting behaviours.

    It serves little purpose for each participant to give their version.

    CA should have released their findings as to what happened, so the whole picture was exposed minus personal self interest.

    🙂

  9. “CA should just ditch the Kookaburra altogether and go with the Duke ball full time.”

    Why do you hate local product So?

    Further, most international cricket is played with the Kooka. From Wikipedia:

    “The nature of the cricket ball slightly varies with its manufacturer. White Kookaburra balls are used in one-day and Twenty20 international matches, while red Kookaburras are used in test matches played in most of the ten test-playing nations,[4] except for the West Indies and England, who use Dukes, and India, who use SG balls.”

  10. Starc and Hazelwood look pretty spent.

    If the SCG is turning they should give Agar a go.

    Of course he has been mismanaged by those fucksticks at WA cricket so he should be compulsorily acquired somewhere to the East.

  11. Carey? As a batsman? Pass around whatever you’re smoking.

    Alex is probably next in line to replace Paine, but he’s not putting any real pressure on him in terms of batting numbers and Paine (despite the fact I totally don’t rate his footwork with the gloves) isn’t Wade like awful as a keeper to be under pressure. It could be a couple of years away seeing as there isn’t really an alternative captain to Paine unless they decide to forgive Smith (which they probably will eventually but not in a hurry).

    So barring an injury to Paine, Carey will probably be at least 30 before he gets a look in. It’s quite possible another younger player comes through and pips him out. Jake Doran for instance (although Wade’s keeping for Tasmania with Paine in the test side this season) or Sam Harper would both be around 25 at that time and if they’re keeping well and making runs will be well in the frame.

  12. imacca @ #1660 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 4:28 pm

    My understanding is that the 1883 Krakatoa explosion was major, but not a super volcano event. The one to watch is Yellowstone. If and when that blows it will be more in line with a Lake Toba style event.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Toba

    your talkin serious vulcanism here.

    It has been accepted that the eruption of Toba led to a volcanic winter with a worldwide decrease in temperature between 3 to 5 °C (5.4 to 9.0 °F), and up to 15 °C (27 °F) in higher latitudes

  13. Yes. Boycott one of the few players in cricket to be deliberately run out by his own teammate (Botham).

    Shellbell, that would have been the Boycott instruction manual with dozens of pictures of the forward defensive block.

  14. Phillip Adams
    ‏@PhillipAdams_1
    1h1 hour ago

    This year’s rainfall at the farm same as last year’ …300 mm..That’s less than half our average (In
    meteorological terminology that’s “as dry as a dead dingo’s donger”.). Cannot begin to describe how appalling it’s been Thank God for Barnaby, our valiant drought envoy

    Anyone know if Barnaby has actually achieved anything as “drought envoy”? (Stupid title. )

  15. “Are you sure the booers weren’t just visiting WAers ?”

    We love the Marsh brothers, particularly as they led the scorchers to massive, unexpected victories, so yeah we can rule out WA’ers booing Marsh.

    What we don’t understand is how when they have so much skill and ability and can destroy a game of cricket at any level that the culture and nature of the Australian team, and the bizarre selection roundabout and continual stress means they have not been able to show it.

  16. lizzie @ #1679 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 4:41 pm

    Phillip Adams
    ‏@PhillipAdams_1
    1h1 hour ago

    This year’s rainfall at the farm same as last year’ …300 mm..That’s less than half our average (In
    meteorological terminology that’s “as dry as a dead dingo’s donger”.). Cannot begin to describe how appalling it’s been Thank God for Barnaby, our valiant drought envoy

    Anyone know if Barnaby has actually achieved anything as “drought envoy”? (Stupid title. )

    Sweet Fanny Adams.

  17. WeWantPaul @ #1676 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 12:42 pm

    “Are you sure the booers weren’t just visiting WAers ?”

    We love the Marsh brothers, particularly as they led the scorchers to massive, unexpected victories, so yeah we can rule out WA’ers booing Marsh.

    What we don’t understand is how when they have so much skill and ability and can destroy a game of cricket at any level that the culture and nature of the Australian team, and the bizarre selection roundabout and continual stress means they have not been able to show it.

    I think they’ve had plenty of opportunity to show their wares.

    The infrequency of their quality displays is the problem.

  18. WeWantPaul @ #1672 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 4:42 pm

    “Are you sure the booers weren’t just visiting WAers ?”

    We love the Marsh brothers, particularly as they led the scorchers to massive, unexpected victories, so yeah we can rule out WA’ers booing Marsh.

    What we don’t understand is how when they have so much skill and ability and can destroy a game of cricket at any level that the culture and nature of the Australian team, and the bizarre selection roundabout and continual stress means they have not been able to show it.

    Stress ?

    Perhaps a quick nip before they go out to bat may assist with that…?

  19. ItzaDream @ #1678 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 12:45 pm

    lizzie @ #1679 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 4:41 pm

    Phillip Adams
    ‏@PhillipAdams_1
    1h1 hour ago

    This year’s rainfall at the farm same as last year’ …300 mm..That’s less than half our average (In
    meteorological terminology that’s “as dry as a dead dingo’s donger”.). Cannot begin to describe how appalling it’s been Thank God for Barnaby, our valiant drought envoy

    Anyone know if Barnaby has actually achieved anything as “drought envoy”? (Stupid title. )

    Sweet Fanny Adams.

    He’s probably put a lot of welcome funds over a few struggling country pubs. 🙂

  20. Ian Chappell calls for Finch and Mitch Marsh to be axed:

    “You can’t keep sticking with guys who aren’t good enough,” Chappell says on Macquarie Sports Radio. “When you’re droping a bloke who is averaging 35 and pick a guy who is averaging the same in first-class cricket you’re in deep trouble. You’re in quicksand and going down fast.

    “Finch and Mitch Marsh have to be replaced but you can’t bring Handscomb back.”

  21. Bumrah has player of the series nailed on for me.

    Sure Pujara has made the big scores, but India haven’t really had trouble making scores in Australia for a fair while. They just haven’t had the bowling to do the business. Yes this is an all time crap Australian batting line up, but even a good top six would have had trouble dealing with Jasprit. If they’d gone with Yadav in Adelaide instead I can easily see us having snuck a win there. He does look like he could be a real handful on low decks at home as well a weapon away. Looks a top shelf quick in the making.

  22. ‘Tom

    Didn’t Geoffrey have a domestic violence conviction?’

    I am not sure about a conviction but there was some proximate noise. Not fit for it, IMO.
    Apart from that, they may be taking the view that they should meet Mr Boycott half way and take the next half century knocking up a decision on the matter.

  23. Mitch Marsh has played 1 test since being recalled, you’d have to be a moron and trying to unsettle the team if you are going to judge players ON ONE GAME.

  24. C@t. Rod Marsh nickname was bacchus, ie Bacchus Marsh, a town in vic I believe.
    Stumpy was actually Bruce Laird, a doughty opener from WA.
    Swampy Marsh is Geoff Marsh, father of Mitch and Sean.
    Rod Marsh is not related to any of them iirc.

  25. WeWantPaul @ #1683 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 4:51 pm

    Mitch Marsh has played 1 test since being recalled, you’d have to be a moron and trying to unsettle the team if you are going to judge players ON ONE GAME.

    The continued re-cycling of Mitch Marsh is illogical and unfair. Making the same selection mistake again and again is insane.

    They have to give new players a chance.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *