Newspoll quarterly aggregates: October to December 2018

Newspoll offers a more nuanced look at the electoral disaster that appears to await the Coalition.

The Australian has published Newspoll’s final quarterly aggregate for the year, with state breakdowns showing Labor leading 54-46 in New South Wales (unchanged on the previous quarter), 56-44 in Victoria (down from 57-43), 54-46 in Queensland (unchanged), 53-47 in Western Australia (down from 54-46) and 58-42 in South Australia (unchanged). As The Australian’s report notes, it also records a nine point increase in Scott Morrison’s disapproval rating outside the five mainland capitals, from 38% to 47%, while his approval is down from 42% to 39%. In the capitals, Morrison is down two on approval to 42% and up five on disapproval to 44%. However, this doesn’t feed through to voting intention, on which Labor’s lead is steady at 56-44 in the capitals, but down from 54-46 to 53-47 elsewhere.

There are no gender or age breakdowns included, so expect those to be published separately over the coming days. We should also get aggregated quarterly state breakdowns from Ipsos in what used to be the Fairfax papers at some point.

UPDATE: Newspoll’s gender and age breakdowns have indeed been published in The Australian today. As with the state breakdowns, these yield little change on voting intention, with the arguable exception of Labor’s primary vote being down two among the 18-34s to 44%, and up two among the 35-49s to 43%. However, the decline noted yesterday in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings among regional voters is matched in the 50-plus cohort, among whom he is down six on approval to 42% and up nine on disapproval to 45%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,003 comments on “Newspoll quarterly aggregates: October to December 2018”

  1. Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, December 29, 2018 at 1:24 pm

    You use anti-Labor tropes all the time. They are defamatory. I ‘m quite content to keep on calling them for what they are. You make outrageous, unsubstantiated claims almost every time you post here. They are tantamount to lies. They are defamatory. They are destructive. They are insulting. They are calculated.

    You sow the seeds of phobia for political and ideological reasons. I think you should be condemned for that.

  2. It is a depressing fact that Shaun Marsh is clearly in the top 6 batsmen in the country currently. He’ll be a fixture until at least the end of the Ashes.

    Mitch though is barely in the top 6 batsmen in Western Australia and the Sandgropers have a completely rubbish top order at the moment. He gets selected purely because he can bowl a few overs without getting absolutely caned (without troubling the batsmen too much). When our batting is already completely shit pretending we can carry a passenger like him is stupidity. If we really need some overs from a fifth bowler Head’s darts will need to be enough. Then pick the best batsman (which excludes Mitchell Marsh even from the discussion).

    The sane selections for Sydney are Finch and Mmarsh – Fuck Right Off, Burns and Patterson in.

  3. Shaun Marsh is nearly 36 years old. Mitch Marsh just doesn’t have the temperament for test cricket. Agree on Burns and Patterson. Smith to return to squad when permitted.

    Warner has a streak I do not like – though I hesitate to name it.

  4. I will say though, you could recall 89 year old Bob Hawke to the test team for the cricket and he’d put up a better show than the Marsh Brothers. 😀

  5. I wonder how much the rerunning of the ball tampering scandal with Steve Smith and Cameron Bancoft on TV in the middle of the test match affected the Australian players. Can not have helped their morale at all. Entirely selfish immature nonsense for Smith and Bancroft to be getting TV coverage on the issues. And if they are still contracted players to CA then the CA officials need to take a fair part of the blame as well.

  6. Satellite data peering thought smoke, ash, and eruption shows Anak (son of) Krakatoa has been reduced to 2/3 of its previous height and volume, and is now merely 100m high.

    Reports of mag 7.2 earthquake off Mindanao Phillipines just coming in.

  7. The streaming WBBL is a joy to watch. Cricket as an excuse for a day out with friends and family. Great batting from Lanning. Simple entertainment.

  8. jen,

    Smarsh’s age is why I hesitate to say he’ll make it beyond the Ashes. I fully expect he’ll have a horror Ashes against a swinging Duke.

    But the sad truth is we just don’t have anyone much to replace him with.

    I obviously rate Patterson, but that’s not to say he can come in and succeed first go. Lehmann also has a bit about him. Playing Wade as pure batsman isn’t the worst idea ever (and he can even bowl a little seam up! – could be a smokey for Sydney), but after those slim pickings it gets really ugly.

    Handscomb has to completely rethink his technique. He could probably get away with the way he bats if he took guard a foot in front of the crease, but whilst he bats so deep good quicks will pin him in front for fun. Labuchagne was a joke selection. Finch would be just as useless in the middle order as he is opening. It’s just a terrible Shield full of nuffies.

    Warner and Smith will walk back in, but they’ll only be papering over the chasms.

  9. The last Western Australian to play a lame drive to be caught in the covers got six years off the team

    Some never forgive.
    He was a talented batsmen. Averaging 50ish in Shield.

    I cant believe I am saying this; there is some sense in playing Wade as a batsman.

    The cupboard is bare.

  10. The last Western Australian to play a lame drive to be caught in the covers got six years off the team

    and he bowled more penetrating medium pacers…

    (as well as being an proper test quality batsman)

  11. There are 3 holes to fill right now, 2 Marshes and a Finch.

    Head could work on his bowling to be the batting all rounder. (M Marsh certainly isn’t one and he is a dromedary in the field). And Stoinis maybe in the future but not now.

    Smith fills one hole (S Marsh). Burns for Finch.

    So they need one more batsman for balanced team

  12. The public administration was not intended merely as an instrument for mindlessly carrying out the will of the government. It was supposed to be a repository of experience, independent views, not only an academy of ideas, but one which nurtures and develops alternative ways of looking at things, people willing to advance alternative approaches, and people able and willing to inject more than technical advice into policy and program discussion, but also morality, common sense and a feeling for the temper of the community.

    Good grief!! That must have been a long long time ago – I never would have guessed in a million years. How quaint.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/act/you-can-t-get-public-service-ethics-from-bankers-20181228-p50okl.html

  13. ItzaDream @ #1616 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 11:24 am

    Satellite data peering thought smoke, ash, and eruption shows Anak (son of) Krakatoa has been reduced to 2/3 of its previous height and volume, and is now merely 100m high.

    Reports of mag 7.2 earthquake off Mindanao Phillipines just coming in.

    That’s amazing if true.

    I climbed higher than that 10 years ago when I visited it.

  14. It is hard to argue with the comments here regarding the performances of the Marsh brothers. They have been very disappointing, no doubt about that.

    But let’s not forget that Australia only lost the first test by 32 runs and easily won the second test. They then had by far the worst of the conditions in this test, having to bowl on a feather bed for two days in the blazing hot sun and then batting on a wicket that had started keeping low and playing tricks. Let’s also not forget that India was all but wiped out for just over a hundred in their second innings on it and Australia has done better than that in the fourth innings of the match.

    I’ll save my criticism until I see how they go in the Sydney test. If they were to win that game, a two all result wouldn’t be too bad, all things considered.

  15. Am equivocal about Stoinis, ratsak. I guess it is like any number of players … we can see potential but will they be able to step up. You have Carey up and coming. Patterson. Hughes.

    But none crying out for selection

  16. briefly @ #1595 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 2:58 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, December 29, 2018 at 1:24 pm

    You use anti-Labor tropes all the time. They are defamatory. I ‘m quite content to keep on calling them for what they are. You make outrageous, unsubstantiated claims almost every time you post here. They are tantamount to lies. They are defamatory. They are destructive. They are insulting. They are calculated.

    You sow the seeds of phobia for political and ideological reasons. I think you should be condemned for that.

    Completely over-the-top nonsense. Get a grip.

  17. Barney in Go Dau @ #1633 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 3:43 pm

    ItzaDream @ #1616 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 11:24 am

    Satellite data peering thought smoke, ash, and eruption shows Anak (son of) Krakatoa has been reduced to 2/3 of its previous height and volume, and is now merely 100m high.

    Reports of mag 7.2 earthquake off Mindanao Phillipines just coming in.

    That’s amazing if true.

    I climbed higher than that 10 years ago when I visited it.

    BBC, so sounds pretty reliable.

    Apparently when daddy Krakatoa blew and collapsed in 1883, Northern Hemisphere summer temps dropped av 1.2C.

    In the year following the 1883 Krakatoa eruption, average Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures fell by as much as 1.2 °C (2.2 °F).[11] Weather patterns continued to be chaotic for years, and temperatures did not return to normal until 1888.[11] The record rainfall that hit Southern California during the water year from July 1883 to June 1884 – Los Angeles received 38.18 inches (969.8 mm) and San Diego 25.97 inches (659.6 mm)[12] – has been attributed to the Krakatoa eruption.[13] There was no El Niño during that period as is normal when heavy rain occurs in Southern California,[14] but many scientists doubt that there was a causal relationship.[15]

    The Krakatoa eruption injected an unusually large amount of sulfur dioxide (SO2) gas high into the stratosphere, which was subsequently transported by high-level winds all over the planet. This led to a global increase in sulfuric acid (H2SO4) concentration in high-level cirrus clouds. The resulting increase in cloud reflectivity (or albedo) reflected more incoming light from the sun than usual, and cooled the entire planet until the suspended sulfur fell to the ground as acid precipitation.[16]

    (wiki)

    and cooled the entire planet until the suspended sulfur fell to the ground as acid precipitation.

  18. The historical selection error was picking Symonds ahead of Hodge in Sri Lanka in 2004, Watson ahead of Hodge in 2004-2005 when Lehmann was punted and then Symonds again ahead of Hodge when Martyn retired suddenly in 2006-2007.

    It was not enough to win, it was who could hit a long ball.

    That approach of trying to find an all rounder has cruellest Australian cricket for too long.

  19. Yet another batsman gets a start then gives his wicket away with a loose shot.
    These guys just don’t know how to dig in for the long haul.
    White ball game has a lot to answer for.

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