Newspoll quarterly aggregates: October to December 2018

Newspoll offers a more nuanced look at the electoral disaster that appears to await the Coalition.

The Australian has published Newspoll’s final quarterly aggregate for the year, with state breakdowns showing Labor leading 54-46 in New South Wales (unchanged on the previous quarter), 56-44 in Victoria (down from 57-43), 54-46 in Queensland (unchanged), 53-47 in Western Australia (down from 54-46) and 58-42 in South Australia (unchanged). As The Australian’s report notes, it also records a nine point increase in Scott Morrison’s disapproval rating outside the five mainland capitals, from 38% to 47%, while his approval is down from 42% to 39%. In the capitals, Morrison is down two on approval to 42% and up five on disapproval to 44%. However, this doesn’t feed through to voting intention, on which Labor’s lead is steady at 56-44 in the capitals, but down from 54-46 to 53-47 elsewhere.

There are no gender or age breakdowns included, so expect those to be published separately over the coming days. We should also get aggregated quarterly state breakdowns from Ipsos in what used to be the Fairfax papers at some point.

UPDATE: Newspoll’s gender and age breakdowns have indeed been published in The Australian today. As with the state breakdowns, these yield little change on voting intention, with the arguable exception of Labor’s primary vote being down two among the 18-34s to 44%, and up two among the 35-49s to 43%. However, the decline noted yesterday in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings among regional voters is matched in the 50-plus cohort, among whom he is down six on approval to 42% and up nine on disapproval to 45%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,003 comments on “Newspoll quarterly aggregates: October to December 2018”

  1. Rex D…

    Labor can’t be trusted with a majority in both houses. That gives the super unions that control them too much parliamentary power.

    Yet another anti-Labor trope from the Cliched Hater.

    Labor made modern Australia possible in spite of The Haters, who have always opposed Labor. The Haters continue to find excuses to defame Labor and the unions, the organs that give effect to the hopes of the wide majority of the people.

    I’ve said it before. I’ll say it again. There are those who are anti-Labor in the same ways that others are anti-Semitic. They will always blame Labor. They will always sow hate.

  2. Catmomma making stuff up again! I have not abused Briefly once, yet he has used foul language towards me. Have never whinged about it, just pointed out his double standard. In fact, he always resorts to abuse when he is losing an argument, so I am quite pleased to read it. Just showing what a hypocrite he is.

  3. Rocket Rocket
    says:
    Saturday, December 29, 2018 at 1:13 pm Question – Warner is smart enough to say nothing, and has just accepted his punishment.

    I will give you that. He doesn’t suffer from Dunning-Kruger.

  4. Tom –

    Are you referring to the Special High Intensity Training manager?

    I think he gave himself whatever title he wanted. It might have ended up as General Manager High Performance Paper Shuffling. But I now realise he has already been turfed (I must have been busy that week).

    Question. Steve Smiths decision to do the vodaphone ad says a lot. It smacks of manager and PR holding sway over any internal reflection and decision making ability. Not captain material IMHO.

  5. briefly @ #1546 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 1:19 pm

    Rex D…

    Labor can’t be trusted with a majority in both houses. That gives the super unions that control them too much parliamentary power.

    Yet another anti-Labor trope from the Cliched Hater.

    Labor made modern Australia possible in spite of The Haters, who have always opposed Labor. The Haters continue to find excuses to defame Labor and the unions, the organs that give effect to the hopes of the wide majority of the people.

    I’ve said it before. I’ll say it again. There are those who are anti-Labor in the same ways that others are anti-Semitic. They will always blame Labor. They will always sow hate.

    You do ok at hating …and abuse …and vitriol…

  6. Warner is smart enough to say nothing, and has just accepted his punishment.

    Yep. Even said no thanks when a bit of a push to reduce the sentences was on.

    He might be dumb as, easily baited (and the SA crowds going after his missus was putting him under severe distress), and not someone that probably should ever have been put in a leadership role. But Warner has conducted himself as well as you can expect of someone in his situation. He’s copped his punishment on the chin and shut his mouth. Something Smith and Bancroft have failed to do.

    I have no more problem with him coming straight back into the side after he does his time than I had with Warney coming back after serving his penalty. That’s why the penalties have a time limit. If he’s good enough (and even an out of form Warner is the best opener in Australia by miles) then he should play.

  7. clem attlee @ #1547 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 1:19 pm

    Catmomma making stuff up again! I have not abused Briefly once, yet he has used foul language towards me. Have never whinged about it, just pointed out his double standard. In fact, he always resorts to abuse when he is losing an argument, so I am quite pleased to read it. Just showing what a hypocrite he is.

    Bullying and vile abuse only reflects back onto the abuser/bully.

  8. briefly @ #1373 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 12:02 pm

    dtt…you’re trying to argue that because English is in use in India as one-of-many languages, the EU is misconceived and must certainly fail. We know you want the dissolution of the EU for ideological reasons. But that aside, your argument is hopeless. In the EU, there are also official languages in use alongside local tongues. It is an amazing fact, but people are able to master more than one language and to find their economic, political, cultural and social identity in things other than the languages they speak.

    Actually, seeing how we exist in a largely post-literary culture, I would argue the visual is far more important to us than the verbal. We’re all so incredibly visually fluent we don’t even notice it at all. We’re never trained in it, but we are all naturally adept in the visual, have excellent visual memories and can read visual messages with great precision and subtlety. The aural, musical, visual, tactile, culinary and dress cultures condition us much more than we realise.

    Jesus you post ignorant crap and argue for the sake of having an argument. English is one of TWO national languages and ALL the courts are supposed to operate in English with few approved exceptions. All universities operate in English. In other words English is the language of the educated. Each person will ALSO be literate in their own native language but if someone from Delhi wishes to communicate with someone in Kochin or Chennai, they will use English not Hindi or Tamil or any other language.

    What is so bloody hard to grasp.

    yes of bloody course (obvious to any person even possibly you) that there are shared values other than language but it makes it a helluva lot harder, especially for the less well educated. Religion is of course often a big unifier, but in India this too is very fragmented, and unity would not be regarded as a major plus. The cast system is a unifier but even here it is probable that many a within caste marriage will involve the couple communication in English if they cross regions.

    Other common unifiers involve wars or revolutions of mass movements (eg Indian independence) but it is 70 years since those factors operated in India.

    Now I am no expert but i am pretty sure that your comment about dress etc destroys your point because i think that most in India dress according to their religion/caste such that differences are very obvious. I am NOT an expert but certainly Muslims, various Hindu sects, Jains, sikhs are identifiable by their dress. In some towns the drivers of the motor bike taxis display their religious affiliations on their vehicles.

  9. Lord Downer gives an opinion.

    FatherBob
    ‏@FatherBob
    Dec 24

    The tweets with haunting photos of Auschwitz camp remind me of tweeted photos of refugees detained Manus.

    ***

    Alexander Downer
    @AlexanderDowner

    Replying to @FatherBob
    You’re a priest or is that a false name? The latter I assume.

    5:37 PM – 28 Dec 2018

  10. And you do very well in the provoking, inciting and aggravating stakes, as well as excelling as a troll and agent provocateur.

    Oh, and at adopting a who me, why are you blaming me, all I said was … defence.

    You are as transparent as a pane of glass, best ignored.

  11. Nicholas is correct that a government’s ability to raise revenue through taxation is what gives a currency its value.
    This might be part of the problem with the euro, as different countries apply taxation and collect it differently.

    Also the right who hate taxation are by implication weakening the currency.

    Kenny’s point, for what it worth is that Labor will risk the return to surplus, through unstated spending increases, but also as we all know any taxaction increase stifles the economy, costs jobs and decreases tax receipts, this is the other side of the laffer curve.

  12. A_E – I think Finch will be dropped, maybe Burns in.

    ratsak – once penalty expires, eligible to play – like Warne as you say

    On that incident on St.Kilda beach, I stand to be corrected by anyone who knows the law better but my understanding of photos/filming in a public place is –

    You can photo/film other people without their permission incidentally. So a photo of the crowds on Bondi beach where there are many people in the frame is ok.

    But you cannot deliberately photo/film someone – say taking a close up shot of an attractive person in their swimming attire.

    And if the person/people being photographed/filmed ask you to stop, you must stop or you are breaking the law.

  13. lizzie @ #1559 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 9:28 am

    Lord Downer gives an opinion.

    FatherBob
    ‏@FatherBob
    Dec 24

    The tweets with haunting photos of Auschwitz camp remind me of tweeted photos of refugees detained Manus.

    ***

    Alexander Downer
    @AlexanderDowner

    Replying to @FatherBob
    You’re a priest or is that a false name? The latter I assume.

    5:37 PM – 28 Dec 2018

    Ignorance is bliss!

    https://twitter.com/FatherBob?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

  14. ‘Ray (UK) says:
    Saturday, December 29, 2018 at 11:39 am

    Boerwar @11.02 am

    Stop being so disingenuous

    Of course a referendum doesn’t lock in opinion for all time or even preclude another referendum at a later date .. but the general principle is that whatever was voted for comes to pass first Duh!!!

    And by the way your list of categories of “ne’er do wells for Brexit” doesn’t cover any of those members of my family I mentioned .. three are lifelong Labour voters* and one a swinging Labour/Lib Dem *

    * until Corbyn became leader, they all now vote Conservative – they actually give Corbyn credit for honouring the referendum result.

    No doubt you think I’m lying and making the whole thing up but I assure you it happened

    Here are some other things I also heard over Christmas, in the pub on Christmas Eve

    1. The 3,000 troops on standby is a load of rubbish – it’s a ruse to get people in favour of a second vote

    2. There are no contingency plans to park ooo’s of heavy trucks all over the southern motorways because of delays at the Channel Ports .. those plans have always been there for when severe weather closes the ports

    3. There will not be a supply chain crisis – Medicines, Food and Petrol supplies will not be affected

    4. Whatever the Northern Irish say, we WILL install checkpoints on the border with the Republic

    Contrary to you rather quaint view that every UK voter is in possession of perfect political knowledge I have to tell you that we, like Australia, have a large cohort of voters who are in thrall to the Murdoch/RW media machine – you have vast numbers of Climate Change deniers we have vast numbers of Brexit deniers. We also have vast numbers of voters who still believe in trickle down and still think the mega-rich are doing it tough and need more tax cuts. The causes are very much the same.

    1. I appreciate your posts very much. One reason is that you are on the ground in England and have insights that we lack totally in the Land of the Global Warming Heat Waves. I have no notion at all that you make stuff up.
    2. I admit to the sort of (very) occasional slipshodism that might, in the eye of a disinterested beholder, be regarded as somewhat disingenuous.
    3. The choices for genuine dyed-in-the-wool lifelong Labor voters are not good, IMO. The responses are, therefore, likely to be all over the place.
    4. I expect that there will be a hard Irish border because the Jungle will move from Calais to Ireland. Walking across is going to be a whole lot easier than getting in the back of a truck and hoping that you won’t asphyxiate.
    5. As far as other contingency plans, I had cottoned onto the 3,000 troops ruse as being bullshit. In terms of Hard Brexit, at least some the immediate consequences will not be in the hands of the British Government. It will be in the hands of the EU. I assume that some states will want maxium disruption and that others will want to minimize the immediate impacts to the extent possible. It seems that that is why the Netherlands is busy training an additional 1,000 customs inspectors…
    6. I still think Brexit is a huge tragedy in historical terms for both the UK and the EU. The enemies of both will chalk it up as a significant win.

  15. Channel 7 news break showed one of their “reporters” stalking Warner after coming out of a shop at Maroubra beach. Good retort from him. Hope he can keep quiet into the future.

  16. There was a discussion yesterday about the reporting by the Hun of an alleged African gang attack on some people – I think at a beach. The question was whether it was right to report if factual.

    At this point in time, unless the aggressive racial provocation against ordinary young black men taking part in totally legal activities is not reported with the same vigour (and headlines) I have no doubt that the Hun is racist and vile – as are the Liberals who get off on it’s unbalanced reporting.

  17. ‘Labor can’t be trusted with a majority in both houses. That gives the super unions that control them too much parliamentary power.’

    Rex, why are you parroting a Liberal-Murdoch meme?

    Whatever. Give me ‘super unions’ any day over Gina, Rupert, the miners, Big Coal, Big Banks, the IPA, private health insurers…

  18. TPOF

    I couldn’t read the Hun report, but

    Andrea Hamblin
    ‏@AndieHamblin
    49m49 minutes ago

    Men playing soccer at St Kilda. Far-right group turns up with camera. Police ask Neil Erikson to leave. They fear he’ll fuel tensions. He stays. African man OC sprayed. Erikson then posts ‘nationalist uprising’ video & caption “Apex attacking police”.

  19. Steve777 @ #1563 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 1:40 pm

    ‘Labor can’t be trusted with a majority in both houses. That gives the super unions that control them too much parliamentary power.’

    Rex, why are you parroting a Liberal-Murdoch meme?

    Whatever. Give me ‘super unions’ any day over Gina, Rupert, the miners, Big Coal, Big Banks, the IPA, private health insurers…

    I don’t want any of those dominating policy and I don’t want the AWU/CFMMEU/SDA doing the same.

  20. briefly
    says:
    Saturday, December 29, 2018 at 1:11 pm
    grimace….every time the Senate obstruct Labor, a DD trigger should be created, I agree. And then when the time comes, there can be a DD election. The quotas are low in DD contests, but the weight of numbers in a Joint Sitting should favour the House.
    The pity is, it’s entirely predictable that the Gs, ON and the LNP will conspire to obstruct Labor.

    DD is always an option, but I don’t think the ALP should go looking for them. They have a large and wide agenda, and more than enough work to do, even if they don’t get everything through their first parliament.

    I would prefer them to concentrate on fixing things like the NBN. Some actual progress on things like the Republic would be better than the constant never-never as well.

  21. Simon² Katich® @ #1555 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 1:23 pm

    Tom –

    Are you referring to the Special High Intensity Training manager?

    I think he gave himself whatever title he wanted. It might have ended up as General Manager High Performance Paper Shuffling. But I now realise he has already been turfed (I must have been busy that week).

    Question. Steve Smiths decision to do the vodaphone ad says a lot. It smacks of manager and PR holding sway over any internal reflection and decision making ability. Not captain material IMHO.

    Simon, it’s all in the acronym – S.H.I.T. manager…

  22. “Whatever. Give me ‘super unions’ any day over Gina, Rupert, the miners, Big Coal, Big Banks, the IPA, private health insurers…”

    Yup. 🙂 Rent seekers all. I’m actually looking forward to Gina’s reaction to her bought people losing the next election big time. 🙂

    There will be much hysterics and cry the beloved country stuff go on. And the ALP will gte on with getting as much of its already declared agenda through.

    I suspect there will be probs with the Senate of some sort, but the ALP has a demonstrated ability to negotiate things through and the “mindset” to do so. If there are things that cant be negotiated through then they get saved as DD triggers for use as levers to apply pressure, or to reset the Senate if things get too obstructionist.

  23. So the Marsh brothers have scored half of the test centuries by Australian test batsmen in 2018, you might think that would put them towards the end of the ‘get rid of now’ list.

  24. Rex?
    “Who are you accusing of being ‘suckers’ ?

    That’s an unfair attack on bludgers who can engage in conversation without abuse.”

    Prise yourself out of that chair Rex and find and find something useful to do!.

  25. One never sees Rex complaining about the IPA and BCA and Gina and Mudoch and an army of vested interests controlling policy.

    Instead he spouts tired and discredited rubbish about unions. Groan.

    Says everything about Rex.

  26. Oh dear, the Socialist Snowflakes, Rex Douglas and clem attlee, have turned up again and are hypocritically calling any valid criticism of them, ‘abuse’, while they continue to go about spreading their manure concerning anyone who dares disagree with their ultra minority viewpoints.

  27. Cud,
    Yes, Rex Douglas does think he’s the smartest little deviant going.

    Even has a ready-made line to throw back at those who note his lack of criticism of the Right, viz, ‘I don’t criticise them because they are just beyond hope’.

    Yeah right.

  28. Nice little hot potato for pre-election Gladys

    NSW Labor today called for the investigation into Opal Tower — currently being carried out by two experienced independent engineers — to include the planning approvals process.

    It came as Alex Greenwich, the independent Member for Sydney, called for a special commission of inquiry into apartment building defects.

    ***

    Current approvals suggest the number of apartments at Sydney Olympic Park — the site where Opal Tower sits — will increase from 6000 to 10,700, with the number of residents in the area jumping from 14,000 to 23,500.

    A spokesman for NSW Minister for Planning Anthony Roberts said they would address the issue later today.

    Sitting on “state significant” land, Opal Tower was given the green light by former NSW planning minister Rob Stokes.

    Concerns have been raised by independent bodies over the ability for developers to employ private certifiers, meaning developers could potentially get their own certifiers to give the green light to multi-million dollar developments.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-29/opal-tower-crack-sparks-calss-for-broad-inquiry/10673134

  29. ItzaDream @ #1588 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 10:30 am

    To broaden my horizons, I studied up on field positions.

    Cow Corner !!

    #whyisitso

    Because it’s not reached with any conventional cricket shot and mainly comes into play with an agricultural cross bat swipe. 🙂

    My favourite is Long stop, one of the first position set in the early years of school cricket. Helped to keep sundries below the rest of the team’s total. 😆

  30. Barney in Go Dau @ #1594 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 2:40 pm

    ItzaDream @ #1588 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 10:30 am

    To broaden my horizons, I studied up on field positions.

    Cow Corner !!

    #whyisitso

    Because it’s not reached with any conventional cricket shot and mainly comes into play with an agricultural cross bat swipe. 🙂

    My favourite is Long stop, one of the first position set in the early years of school cricket. Helped to keep sundries below the rest of the team’s total. 😆

    Nice. Greetings of the Seasons Barney.

  31. The rest of cricket sucks dead dogs’ dicks though…

    Cricket is only a topic during summer.

    Trains and railways are a year long dead dog dick suck.

  32. #UNFIT: Malignant Narcissism comes to Washington D.C.

    Definitive analysis of Trump by top US mental health experts. Science. Truth. Duty to Warn. We ALL have an interest in this discussion.

    #UNFIT is a feature-length documentary film in which medical doctors and mental health professionals go on the record, for the record. (Finally!)

    It’s an eye-opening discussion, analysis, and science-based examination of the behavior, psyche, condition, and stability of President Donald Trump, which addresses the question many people are now asking:

    “Is Donald Trump psychologically fit to be President?”

    https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1156678616/unfit-malignant-narcissism-comes-to-wash-dc-very-b

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