The Australian has published Newspoll’s final quarterly aggregate for the year, with state breakdowns showing Labor leading 54-46 in New South Wales (unchanged on the previous quarter), 56-44 in Victoria (down from 57-43), 54-46 in Queensland (unchanged), 53-47 in Western Australia (down from 54-46) and 58-42 in South Australia (unchanged). As The Australian’s report notes, it also records a nine point increase in Scott Morrison’s disapproval rating outside the five mainland capitals, from 38% to 47%, while his approval is down from 42% to 39%. In the capitals, Morrison is down two on approval to 42% and up five on disapproval to 44%. However, this doesn’t feed through to voting intention, on which Labor’s lead is steady at 56-44 in the capitals, but down from 54-46 to 53-47 elsewhere.
There are no gender or age breakdowns included, so expect those to be published separately over the coming days. We should also get aggregated quarterly state breakdowns from Ipsos in what used to be the Fairfax papers at some point.
UPDATE: Newspoll’s gender and age breakdowns have indeed been published in The Australian today. As with the state breakdowns, these yield little change on voting intention, with the arguable exception of Labor’s primary vote being down two among the 18-34s to 44%, and up two among the 35-49s to 43%. However, the decline noted yesterday in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings among regional voters is matched in the 50-plus cohort, among whom he is down six on approval to 42% and up nine on disapproval to 45%.
Cud Chewer
You may know the answer to this. Is there much hope for the current railway track around the Southern Highlands and Goulburn? Ive heard the track and alignment are absolute dogs breakfasts and need complete redoing. It certainly felt like it when I last rode it.
Further, is there much hope for V/Line style servicing to the Southern Highlands/Goulburn? Or does this also rely on massive track upgrades/realignment?
Cud Chewer
Basically the same article he and much of the Murdoch menagerie write week in week out, the first three for their entire career. All part of their job description.
Simon² Katich® @ #1500 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 12:07 pm
Are you referring to the Special High Intensity Training manager?
Bob Carr in 1995 had a 1 seat majority from memory not minority.
Confirmed by a search.
The Wagga Wagga result suggests there is substantial disaffection with the NSW Government. There’s certainly a loss of confidence in the Liberal Party itself, as expressed in Wentworth. On the face of it, there is scope for voter rebellion on a large scale.
Because the Federal election will dominate the news, it will be very hard for any party to campaign in NSW on State matters until the Federal election has been held, so it may be more difficult than usual to get a reading of State voting intentions.
That said, the Federal election will be a referendum on the Liberal Party among their traditionally-strongest supporters. The Liberals are seen by these voters to have badly failed. This was the case in WA last year and recently in Victoria. We know such sentiments were strongly felt in Wentworth.
If these impulses are reflected in the NSW election, the Liberals could see a collapse in their vote in their safest seats. That could easily change the Government. These are perilous times for the Liberals, who now stand for numerous positions that isolate them from the community at large.
DaretoTread @ #1488 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 7:45 am
If they have a low literacy rate in their first language they are hardly likely to have a high literacy rate in a second or third language.
But India doesn’t have “a” common language.
Are you serious. 😆
Those funny symbols next to or on the same signs were not pretty decorations, but the same sign written in their first language. That is what the majority were reading.
As for the legal system and government that’s where those clever translators, that you pooh-poohed, come into play.
Cud Chewer
I do think about those writers. Like the Liberals, what will they do when it is clear that the Australian people have moved on with regard to issues such as climate change?
I hope Labor win, and obviously hope for two terms.. I don’t want to get ahead of myself, and many things could change even in a year or two but if that were the case and a Labor government was facing re-election in 2025 would the Coalition and their Murdoch allies still be campaigning against the concept of climate change?
Looking back, the Coalition dismantled Medibank between 1975 and 1983, then after Labor successfully introduced Medicare the Coalition promised to also dismantle that at every election until 1996 when they finally realized Australians were never going back.
Aqualung
Ta on the Bob Carr correction.
The question of whether the Aussies cheated prior to Capetown is speculation.
No damning video evidence has emerged.
So, I’ll wait for the proof, thank you,rather than indulge in conspiracy theories.
Part of the problem is the lack of genuine criticism amongst Australian cricket commentators and writers.
Alan Border was such a grumpy player but he’s a teddy bear as a commentator.
You would’ve thought he would go nuts over Finch being picked in the first place and then having such a weak technique that he just dangles an angled batboutside the stumps.
Harris with a strange whipping defensive stroke played well away from the pad.
instead they talk about the bad luck of the ball going straight to the fiekders.
Oh dear. How long until 210 in Madras comes up…
I hope Labor win the election and that the Liberals
1. Elect Tony Abbott as new leader (if he wins his seat) when as their rules require the leadership positions are spilled after the election.
2. Keep up with their “opposition” to climate change (King Canute style)
3. Continue their likely decline of female representation in their party, and make no moves towards changing this situation.
4. Persist with their obsession over various social issues where they are at odds with a significant majority of Australians, and persist with their conviction that these issues are of prime importance when people go to the ballot box.
5. Keep being pressured by the Nationals to support their very narrow views.
Because if they do all these things they will keep the Coalition out of office for many years and thus help Australia progress in the modern world, benefiting all Australians.
Barney in Go Dau @ #1505 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 11:23 am
Rubbish Barney
India has many languages and also they travel a LOT. So when Sajit from Tamil Nadu travels to Delhi, he follows the ENGLISH signs not the Hindi signs in Delhi because he does not read or understand Hindi.
The courts (with some exceptions) are conducted in ENGLISH.
The whole POINT is that with many diverse languages English serves as the common communication language. Yes for sure the Dalit from Kolkata may not understand it but even he/she will know enough for advertising signs and railways.
Why are you so bloody obdurate. I know we are NOT mates but to argue over this is just bloody silly.
In Europe Latin was once the unifier and was one reason for the stability and dominance of the catholic church.
The whole point of this discussion was language in the EU. I do not think that either English or French are sufficiently acceptable to say Poles to serve as a common tongue. Possibly once UK LEAVES the EU, English (USA) could be sufficiently independent an non member specific to be a unifier.
Expat Follower @ #1488 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 11:52 am
Greyhound racing should be banned. Baird was weak to cave into the industry.
NSW Coalition is terrible – NSW Labor isn’t much better – NSW Greens are confused.
No wonder they’re all moving south.
Rocket Rocket….
The Liberals really have a top-down view of politics and democracy. They do not seek to connect with and reflect the aspirations and experiences of the wide majority. They “talk at” rather than “listen to” voters. Even worse, what they say to voters is conditioned by the rhetoric of the microscopically-small sliver of the population that belong to or are close supporters of their Party. These people are ideologues. They’re not democrats. They’re an unrepresentative crust.
Back in the day, in the 1940s and 50s, the Liberal Party had a very large membership, as did Labor and the Country Party. This has completely changed. Voters no longer “join” in the way their grandparents and parents joined political parties. This is a behavioural fact.
Labor premise their political action and their campaigning on the need to go and reach voters, to meet them and listen to them. This is a real process. It has also resulted in new member and supporter recruitment on an ongoing basis. It is intrinsically voter-focused. As far as we know, the Liberals do not do this. The result is they are not in touch with voters. Instead, they are self-admiring, self-talking and self-serving. Where they were once democratically constituted, the Liberals have made themselves into a cult.
It’s also becoming obvious that their “base” itself is also disintegrating. It’s really quite difficult to identify just who the Liberals now think they best represent, or to identify the echelons of voters who would affiliate emotionally with the Liberals ahead of other voices. Those groups that were once solidly Liberal are breaking up. It’s tempting to think this is simply a passing electoral phenomenon. But it’s likely to be more than that. It’s visible in rural and regional areas. It’s visible in the very wealthy urban areas. It’s visible in the comfortable suburbs and across the age spectrum. Australia is changing. The Liberals are not.
“Looking back, the Coalition dismantled Medibank between 1975 and 1983, then after Labor successfully introduced Medicare the Coalition promised to also dismantle that at every election until 1996 when they finally realized Australians were never going back.”
The Government tried to make a start in 2014 with the Copayment. It would have effectively ended bulk billing. It would have been racheted up in future years. Private rent seekers allowe in to insure the widening hap. Medicare gone in 2 terms.
It is 100% clear that Bancroft did not do the ball tampering cheating behind the team leaderships back, so whether, as seems most likely and consistent with all the facts/claims we have Warner instigated it and ‘lead’ the process, or in the alternative, Bancroft learnt it playing under Langer for WA and convinced Warner and Smith it was a good idea, Warner and Smith are still the team leaders and they failed.
Surely its only relevance is whether or not Warner comes back into the Australian Test team. If he was just a weak and useless leader like Smith, maybe he does come back, but there seems to be issues with him beyond his involvement in the Australian cheating.
Seems more likely to me he never plays for Australia again, and that is a good outcome for cricket in Australia in every respect except runs.
DaretoTread @ #1511 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 8:38 am
I think you’d find he is more likely to understand Hindi than English.
Listen to the stump mic on the cricket today.
How much English do you hear from the Indians? 🙂
We pay taxes to keep the government’s currency strong.
The fact that millions of households and firms owe tax liabilities in the government’s currency is ultimately what makes the currency valuable. The currency is very much in demand because so many people need it to pay taxes.
The government’s currency is backed by the tax system and by the government’s promise to accept its currency back in payment of the taxes, fees, and fines that it imposes on us.
Taxes are also used to influence distribution of income and wealth and to influence behaviours of households and firms in ways that the government considers desirable.
WeWantPaul @ #1515 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 8:46 am
I say it was a ploy to undermine Boof and get Langer into the coaches job and hence secure the Marshes’ positions in the team. 😆
No worries IoM. A 1 seat majority can feel like a minority government and as Fizza and Scooter have discovered can morph into one.
There has been numerous cases of minority state governments going on to win majorities at the next election
Only if they go into minority from opposition.
We had this discussion a while ago and Dr KB confirmed my suspicion that the only time a government dropped from majority to minority and then went on to win a majority at the next election would have been in SA (Dunstan 77). Every other government that has fallen into minority went out the back door at the next election (if they made it that far).
WeWantPaul @ #1512 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 12:46 pm
The ongoing problem with Smith, Bancroft and Warner is the appalling advice they’re taking.
The fudging, blame-shifting we’ve seen since smacks of PR advisors trying to save their clients’ commercial profile. The Australian public see right through that rubbish.
The fastest and best way for the players to retrieve their careers was too genuinely own their sins, cop their whack, keep their mouth shut, train hard and fight their way back into the team through performance.
briefly says:
Saturday, December 29, 2018 at 11:48 am
Federal Labor have spent years developing the platform. There’s just been a National Conference, an event that taken seriously by every party member. The policies and the platform will be taken to the election and if Labor win, they will be given effect. Labor want to win in order to do things – to carry out the program. They’ll do it. The only obstacle will be the Senate, where a blocking array of LNP, Right-leaning Independents and Gs will set out to thwart Labor every day the Senate sits.
**********************
Labor need to amass DD triggers and leave themselves the option of pulling the trigger at the last minute leading up to the otherwise due 2022 federal election.
Warner strikes me as easily baited and more than just a bit thick. Smith strikes me as a schoolboy (immature).
I wouldn’t debate letting them play, but neither have leadership qualities that are readily apparent.
Guess who’s deliberately causing the strife?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-29/st-kilda-clash-far-right-activists-african-youth-playing-soccer/10673088
Weather will close in this afternoon and Aussies will secure a draw.
They will win the Sydney toss and go on to a glorious victory and Series win.
This Test side will become legendary and revered forever.
March 23rd is the NSW election, Morrison would be crazy for March election.
GG
Whatever you are on, I hope you brought enough for the entire class to share.
Taught you well, have I.
dtt…you’re trying to argue that because English is in use in India as one-of-many languages, the EU is misconceived and must certainly fail. We know you want the dissolution of the EU for ideological reasons. But that aside, your argument is hopeless. In the EU, there are also official languages in use alongside local tongues. It is an amazing fact, but people are able to master more than one language and to find their economic, political, cultural and social identity in things other than the languages they speak.
Actually, seeing how we exist in a largely post-literary culture, I would argue the visual is far more important to us than the verbal. We’re all so incredibly visually fluent we don’t even notice it at all. We’re never trained in it, but we are all naturally adept in the visual, have excellent visual memories and can read visual messages with great precision and subtlety. The aural, musical, visual, tactile, culinary and dress cultures condition us much more than we realise.
grimace @ #1519 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 12:57 pm
Labor can’t be trusted with a majority in both houses. That gives the super unions that control them too much parliamentary power.
The Greens and Indys like Tim Storer need to have the balance of power to ensure a healthy parliament.
What was Attlee meant to pay those troops with Boer? The country was bankrupt from defeating the Nazis. I guess they should have just spent more of other people’s money to do so. Oh no… you don’t approve of those ‘socialist’ measures do you? Christ you do post some crap on here.
Far right clashes with Africans playing Soccer:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-29/st-kilda-clash-far-right-activists-african-youth-playing-soccer/10673088
Low piece of scum.
Question – harsh and then fair.
From the IPA wish list:
20 Means-test Medicare
This effectively means abolish.
Make no mistake, the Coalition, its mates and bankrollers, want Medicare gone, replaced by private insurance and third rate, underfunded safety net for the very poor.
Rex continues to be dumb, playing the Liberal lines of “Labor can’t be trusted”.
You can’t think up anything original, Rex?
You have no moral or anything?
Shellbell @ #1510 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 12:35 pm
I used to love how Keith Miller spoke – outright and forceful!
Question @ #1520 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 12:57 pm
Neither should’ve been in leadership positions. Terrible appointments from CA.
I’d have them straight back in the side when their suspensions are complete, but have them just focus on their individual performances and nowhere near leadership and tactical positions.
Barney in Go Dau @ #1360 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 11:47 am
Well you obviously have not traveled in India. Why would he understand or read Hindi. Schools (public ones are in the state/local languages but the rich kids go to private English tuition schools and the poor christians go to English speaking missionary schools.
In 2001 12.1% of the total Indian population spoke English. No data but it may be assumed that a much higher % of those in Tamil Nadu and other southern states will speak English, than in the Hindi speaking zones.
Nothing if not fair SK 🙂
clem attlee
says:
Saturday, December 29, 2018 at 1:03 pm
What was Attlee meant to pay those troops with Boer? The country was bankrupt from defeating the Nazis. I guess they should have just spent more of other people’s money to do so. oh no… you don’t approve of those ‘socialist’ measures do you? Christ you do post some crap on here.
______________________________
PLus it would have taken enormous amounts of troops to make any difference to the violence in India at that time. Most of the British Army troops in India were actually Indian and had long been so. There were also large areas of India that were not under the direct control of Britain and had never been so. There were around 500 princely states that had never been under British Raj.
grimace….every time the Senate obstruct Labor, a DD trigger should be created, I agree. And then when the time comes, there can be a DD election. The quotas are low in DD contests, but the weight of numbers in a Joint Sitting should favour the House.
The pity is, it’s entirely predictable that the Gs, ON and the LNP will conspire to obstruct Labor.
I share my wisened insights and research based perceptions.
However, I am not responsible for the learning talents of other PBers.
Any chance that Joe Burns gets a last minute call up and picked in place of Finch for Sydney? Or will the stupid persist?
GG – are you channeling Wayne? (in cricket predictions!)
Question – Warner is smart enough to say nothing, and has just accepted his punishment.
briefly – I think the NSW Coalition government may get back in minority, but I think it is more likely they will lose whether it is before a May Federal election (people getting out their anger early), or after a March one (like a second tsunami wave). The Liberals are then going to have real problems – I predict they will elect Abbott if he is still around, and follow the Murdoch writers to the right. Which of course will make them unelectable, maybe leading to some sort of split within a few years.
DaretoTread @ #1538 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 9:09 am
Ever heard of Bollywood?
Stupid is the most persistent thing in the world.
@Rexy:
“Neither should’ve been in leadership positions. Terrible appointments from CA.
I’d have them straight back in the side when their suspensions are complete, but have them just focus on their individual performances and nowhere near leadership and tactical positions.”
Frack. A Rexism I actually agree with.
Agreed.