Newspoll quarterly aggregates: October to December 2018

Newspoll offers a more nuanced look at the electoral disaster that appears to await the Coalition.

The Australian has published Newspoll’s final quarterly aggregate for the year, with state breakdowns showing Labor leading 54-46 in New South Wales (unchanged on the previous quarter), 56-44 in Victoria (down from 57-43), 54-46 in Queensland (unchanged), 53-47 in Western Australia (down from 54-46) and 58-42 in South Australia (unchanged). As The Australian’s report notes, it also records a nine point increase in Scott Morrison’s disapproval rating outside the five mainland capitals, from 38% to 47%, while his approval is down from 42% to 39%. In the capitals, Morrison is down two on approval to 42% and up five on disapproval to 44%. However, this doesn’t feed through to voting intention, on which Labor’s lead is steady at 56-44 in the capitals, but down from 54-46 to 53-47 elsewhere.

There are no gender or age breakdowns included, so expect those to be published separately over the coming days. We should also get aggregated quarterly state breakdowns from Ipsos in what used to be the Fairfax papers at some point.

UPDATE: Newspoll’s gender and age breakdowns have indeed been published in The Australian today. As with the state breakdowns, these yield little change on voting intention, with the arguable exception of Labor’s primary vote being down two among the 18-34s to 44%, and up two among the 35-49s to 43%. However, the decline noted yesterday in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings among regional voters is matched in the 50-plus cohort, among whom he is down six on approval to 42% and up nine on disapproval to 45%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,003 comments on “Newspoll quarterly aggregates: October to December 2018”

  1. “The photographs of the wall damage in the Opal Tower are compelling and terrifying.”

    Maybe a PB engineer could comment, however the SMH photo is just a pile of plasterboard. Which is more than likely a result of faulty dry wall installation ( failure at deflection head, the bit connecting light steel studs to concrete slab at the top )
    However the photo shows crushing like damage of the wall on outside of adjacent window.

    Is this a case of differential settlement in the foundation material from one part of the building to another. Given Opal has a large footprint that would seem possible , in reality it’s propbably 3 buildings connected to each other.

  2. billie @ #88 Wednesday, December 26th, 2018 – 8:27 am

    Clearly Opal Tower has poured concrete walls with an air bubble that has collapsed

    Shoddy construction
    Slipshod building certification

    My neighbour the builder says the best concrete walls are tilt slab
    ie the slab is poured and left to cure for 3 days, moved onto site, tilted into position to finish curing.

    A cheaper method is to build the formwork then pour the concrete between the 2 temporary plywood walls. Use a large concrete sticker mixture to move the concrete around evenly to avoid trapping air holes. If you are too vigorous with the stick mixer then forms will blow leaving you with a concrete spill. Safe for buildings less than 3 storeys

    Billie,

    Setting vertical formwork for vertical concrete elements is not necessarily cheaper – often it is dearer which is why alternative forms of construction for vertical concrete elements in the multi-storey commercial/ apartment/ industrial building has been developed such as (on-site) tilt slab and (off-site) pre-cast.
    Cast insitu concrete (in properly designed and constructed formwork) does not blow under the impact of proper compaction using immersion vibrators or formwork vibration which are used to exclude air from the placed concrete. I have seen (and supervised) many concrete pours in forms 6 or more metres high for water retaining structures. Properly designed, higher strength concrete mixes do not suffer the same degree of aggregate segregation as low strength concrete mixes that are used in domestic construction or driveways. Australia has a standard for formwork and I, for one on my projects, expect that formwork is designed and assembled in accordance with the design requirements.
    By the way, tilt slab construction is no recipe for perfect concrete work – it depends on the level of supervision and is typically ‘horses for courses’.

  3. Sceptic
    The time lapse build shows a common central core.
    I agree with TallebudgeraLurker, someone has ripped the plaster off to see what in the hell is going on.
    You can’t comment on the concrete unless you know what MPA was specified.
    Whoever assessed it must have a fair idea as to the failure mode otherwise they would not have allowed anyone to return.

  4. Others have commented on Murphy’s use of “popularism”, whatever that is, as a hook for her article. But these two quotes are also worth a mention.

    But Shorten, a former trade union official and a long-time party powerbroker, is not beloved of Australian voters.

    Both of the major parties have changed their rules to make it more difficult to topple serving leaders.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/26/how-the-coalitions-panic-over-polls-set-the-stage-for-a-radical-reshaping-of-australian-politics

    Is there a word limit at The Guardian that prevents Murphy from going into a bit of depth on the Coalition’s leadership rules, or its factions? It is superficial attempt to look at the Coalition, but then drags in the obligatory kill-Bill and obligatory same-same with the quotes above. And apart from next year will be different (no kidding), that’s it. This is a lazy article.

    Her argument seems to be that independents are popular because the majors are not. (That’s where kill-Bill comes in. Never mind the ALP is popular in TPP and primary polling.) But ploughing on, the majors are not popular because of their instability (same-same), and that’s why the majors did the rule change thing. But it then fails to identify the differences in those rules (reinforcing same-same) and ends with vague ideas that something will change inside the Coalition if they lose the federal election 2019. What a surprise. Why stop there just as you get to the interesting bit?

    This is a lazy article.

  5. billie @ #103 Wednesday, December 26th, 2018 – 8:49 am

    Frednk – I thought tilt slab would be too heavy to hoist into place when you are above 10 storeys

    Pre-cast concrete components (not tilt slab components but they are similar) are often used on multi-story buildings – often they are fancy finished facade components. They are delivered by semi-trailers from the distant pre-casting yard and are typically lifted into place by the tower crane. They are either fastened into place using bolts into cast-in ferrules in the components or using stitch panels/sections to join concrete sections together.

  6. Rossmcg @ #102 Wednesday, December 26th, 2018 – 8:46 am

    Tallebudgera etc

    Wait for the answer to come out? That’s not how things work around here comrade.

    Rossmcg,
    Now that is being too cynical, the lawyers are circling, I would expect a full investigation.
    By the way:
    (i) designers do sometimes make mistakes in their calculations, and
    (ii) drafters do sometimes make mistakes in their drawings, and
    (iii) contractor do sometimes make mistakes (or take short cuts) in constructing structures.
    I agree with others that a high level of supervision is warranted for high rise buildings as it is for many other structures.

  7. Tallebudgera thanks for providing detail.

    I am familiar with watching buildings being built and I simplified what my neighbour said because I have a simple understanding of what was said.

    Has this builder been in trouble before?

  8. TallebudgeraLurker

    Unrelated to this building;
    What do you believe is the solution for the certification of imported material?
    What do you believe is the solution to there being no requirement for engineer certification?

  9. Talkebudgera

    You might have missed it but almost within minutes of the story breaking someone here described it as a media beat up
    Not sure how media was responsible for police and emergency services ordering evacuations. But After Bill shorten they are a convenient scapegoat.
    I may be different but if a firey comes to the door and suggests I leave I won’t be asking if it is a real problem or something he read about on smh online.
    I commented earlier that it will be a lawyers feast. We can make jokes about that but there will be many many everyday people who will be affected.
    Call me a cynic but I would guess some will be waiting a long time for redress.
    Wouldn’t want to be trying to sell an apartment in this building today.

  10. Steve, they may be over egging the pudding. Blaming Labor for everything that goes wrong in the country must eventually wear a bit thin. When discussing when something goes wrong, I often blame Labor, no matter how stupid the comment is. What I am doing is making people aware of this meme and hopefully make them aware of how the media is trying to manipulate them.

  11. Steve777

    Some talking dickhead on ABC News blaming Labor for the Olympic Tower problems.

    Which talking dickhead was that please? We meed to hunt them down!

  12. Great chat on here about the nonsense term ”populism”- PB at its best.
    Populism is just basically a meaningless snide term of abuse these days like PC or virtue signalling, and should not be used by a professional journalist. Even we political obsessives can’t work out its meaning.
    KM should know better.

  13. Rossmcg @ #108 Wednesday, December 26th, 2018 – 9:01 am

    One problem with tilt slab construction is that it has at times proved very dangerous for workers.

    One of many cases in WA over the years

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-17/company-sentenced-over-deaths-of-two-construction-workers-crush/9772342

    Rossmcg,
    I agree that tilt slab can be a dangerous construction method if the contractor is a ‘cowboy’.
    The ABC news article references ’tilt panels’ but they were more likely precast components which may have been cast flat or in vertical steel forms at a distant pre-casting yard – who knows but those directly involved. This WA matter looks like a case of workers being too close to an unloading area and an inadequately secured load on the delivery vehicle – a very poor crane lifting plan would be the staring point of this tragic outcome. Hence why different parties are often charged after an investigation by the authorities.
    As Catmomma said, tilt slab construction (often cast on the site as stacked horizontally cast slabs in forms) is typically used for low rise industrial/commercial construction but I have also seen the method used to construct water reservoirs and circular process tanks where stitch panels are used to join the tilt slab chord segments together.
    Permanently holding the panels in place in a building fire has been a significant issue for this construction technique. Temporarily holding the panels in place during construction is also an issue that requires design thought and care.
    The press often conflate engineering/construction terminology and create the wrong impression in the readers minds.

  14. Rossmcg, yep some people are going to suffer. I have witnessed a development where three consecutive builders went broke building the one development. It has taken so long that the permit has run out and the building has to be demolished.

    The financial arrangement was the individual owners were making progress payments at various stages. That money is all lost, they have lost money living in other accommodation for a number of years and they are going to be hit with demolition costs.

    This setback will financially cripple some of the owners for the rest of their lives. Very sad.

  15. India just won the Boxing Day test and the series with that toss. Batting first is worth 100-150 runs and neither side in this series is strong enough to climb over the top of the other when batting second.

  16. I for one think people are being too quick to blame someone/a company with the problems in the Opal Tower. We need more information and an assessment has to be carried out first.

    That being said, most of the potential sources of problems identified on BP are valid avenues of inquiry given we know they are issues elsewhere in Aus (certification of construction + materials, engineering etc)

    Further has anyone seen any photos of the support wall that has failed and its cracking? Ive only seen pictures of some giprock that fell off which is really inconclusive and tells us very little about whats actually going on.

  17. A belated Merry Xmas to all PBers. Just settling down to the Boxing Day Test. Thank you to all the contributors to PB, you give me lots of reading matter. I do not use the “Block” button as I believe the more contributors the better for William. I do use the scroll button a lot, however, I am most times one day behind as there is much to read and information provided by you PBers. Thanks, BK for the news items and cartoons. I do wish that some people would learn to use the scroll button or just ignore some of the contributors instead of trying to push them out. A BIG THANK YOU to William for this site.
    What a bad Government we have had and still have over the last 5 years yet I think there is worse to come. Happy New Year to all.

  18. “Which talking dickhead was that please? We meed to hunt them down!”

    Sorry, just broke into the middle and didn’t catch his name. I didn’t recognise him. He was accusing Labor of “exploiting the issue” then went on to detail other Labor sins. Some non-entity trying to make his mark.

  19. Three top headlines in Murdoch’s Oz at the moment – quite a sight:

    EXCLUSIVE
    Carnage as voters turn to minors
    JARED OWENS
    The Liberal National Party’s hold on marginal seats is at risk, according to Newspoll.

    EXCLUSIVE
    ‘Libs are falling to pieces’
    REMY VARGA, JOHN FERGUSON
    After the Victorian election, once-safe Liberal seats can no longer be taken for granted.

    NEWSPOLL EXCLUSIVE
    Regions fail to embrace Morrison
    GEOFF CHAMBERS, JARED OWENS
    Scott Morrison is failing to bridge the voter gap in regional Australia less than five months before a ­likely election.

  20. billie @ #113 Wednesday, December 26th, 2018 – 9:10 am

    Tallebudgera thanks for providing detail.

    I am familiar with watching buildings being built and I simplified what my neighbour said because I have a simple understanding of what was said.

    Has this builder been in trouble before?

    Billie,
    I don’t know about Icon Construction Group’s industrial accident/incident history.
    Accidents sometime happen to even very careful contractors, I won’t cite my specific examples. I have seen some accidents/incidents in my more than 35 years since starting as a junior engineer – fortunately non fatal so far – that have occurred as a consequence of permanent works design error, temporary works design error, or poor construction technique.
    (So far) the Opal apartment building is a non fatal incident so let’s all be grateful that no one was hurt.

  21. Sceptic @ #100 Wednesday, December 26th, 2018 – 8:40 am

    the SMH photo is just a pile of plasterboard. Which is more than likely a result of faulty dry wall installation ( failure at deflection head, the bit connecting light steel studs to concrete slab at the top )

    My thought when I saw that photo was “I bet the slab of drywall was deliberately removed to provide better visibility of the crack”. I’d be kind of surprised if it just fell off like that on its own.

  22. I believe that the bloke that was blaming the building cracking on Labor was introduced as the NSW Treasurer.

    Don’t ask me his name but I can confirm he is a dickhead.

    Just did a google and yes this is ‘him’

    ?itok=i6WncwqK

  23. A hot-air balloon caught fire Wednesday morning as it was taking off in the Yarra Ranges, north-east of Melbourne.

    It is understood the balloon landed with its gas tanks ablaze in a paddock off Cahillton Road in Gruyere, near Coldstream.

    Just cemented my resolve not to ‘enjoy’ a balloon flight.

    It’s such a beautiful morning, though.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/hot-air-balloon-gas-tanks-catch-fire-passengers-race-to-safety-20181226-p50o88.html

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