Newspoll quarterly aggregates: October to December 2018

Newspoll offers a more nuanced look at the electoral disaster that appears to await the Coalition.

The Australian has published Newspoll’s final quarterly aggregate for the year, with state breakdowns showing Labor leading 54-46 in New South Wales (unchanged on the previous quarter), 56-44 in Victoria (down from 57-43), 54-46 in Queensland (unchanged), 53-47 in Western Australia (down from 54-46) and 58-42 in South Australia (unchanged). As The Australian’s report notes, it also records a nine point increase in Scott Morrison’s disapproval rating outside the five mainland capitals, from 38% to 47%, while his approval is down from 42% to 39%. In the capitals, Morrison is down two on approval to 42% and up five on disapproval to 44%. However, this doesn’t feed through to voting intention, on which Labor’s lead is steady at 56-44 in the capitals, but down from 54-46 to 53-47 elsewhere.

There are no gender or age breakdowns included, so expect those to be published separately over the coming days. We should also get aggregated quarterly state breakdowns from Ipsos in what used to be the Fairfax papers at some point.

UPDATE: Newspoll’s gender and age breakdowns have indeed been published in The Australian today. As with the state breakdowns, these yield little change on voting intention, with the arguable exception of Labor’s primary vote being down two among the 18-34s to 44%, and up two among the 35-49s to 43%. However, the decline noted yesterday in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings among regional voters is matched in the 50-plus cohort, among whom he is down six on approval to 42% and up nine on disapproval to 45%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,003 comments on “Newspoll quarterly aggregates: October to December 2018”

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  1. @ Clem:

    “Earlwood. I don’t belong to any faction because I’m no longer a member. But this ‘Victorian shit show’ as you put it, just crushed the Tories with a real left agenda. That must make you weep tears of blood!”

    Splitter.

    The shitshow I was referring to was your “Grouper. grouper” inspired pogram against the ideolically impure (according to your lights) within the party.

    I’d assumed that you were still in one of the irrelevant left fractions that haunt the Victorian party like ghosts from the 1950s, but alas, you’re actually a quitter. Time for you to go back to yelling “Grouper. Grouper” at passing seagulls over a flagon of old port at St Kilda me thinks.

    For the record. There is nothing whatsoever that offends me about the platform and electoral success of the Andrews Government, but you are too busy yelling “Grouper, Grouper” at non socialist comrades to “get it”.

  2. Victoria says:
    Saturday, December 29, 2018 at 9:10 am
    Briefly

    I am sure you will sleep well at night knowing that dtt despairs of you!

    Slumber is my consolation, Victoria. 🙂

  3. Where women are afforded less rights than foetuses.

    You might be surprised to learn that in the United States a woman coping with the heartbreak of losing her pregnancy might also find herself facing jail time. Say she got in a car accident in New York or gave birth to a stillborn in Indiana: In such cases, women have been charged with manslaughter.

    In fact, a fetus need not die for the state to charge a pregnant woman with a crime. Women who fell down the stairs, who ate a poppy seed bagel and failed a drug test or who took legal drugs during pregnancy — drugs prescribed by their doctors — all have been accused of endangering their children.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/12/28/opinion/pregnancy-women-pro-life-abortion.html

  4. The question is. Does Morrison want to be the vaguely honorable footnote who took an impossible job to save some furniture from the likes of Dutton, or the idiot who totally stuffed it?

  5. I suppose at least I can update the list of people Bludger’s think I am:

    1. A liberal staffer
    2. A greens staffer
    3. Wayne
    3. Menzies Center intern
    4. William Bowe, or a ‘part of William’
    5. Michael Kroger
    6. Marcus Baastian
    7. Chris Kenny

  6. Peter van Onselen
    ‏@vanOnselenP
    17h17 hours ago

    How to stop trusting a political office. When this story broke the PMO rang me to SPECIFICALLY say Morrison only found out that day. They neglected to mention they knew two weeks ago and didn’t tell their boss. Now that is media management that creates total distrust… #auspol

    Paul Bongiorno
    ‏@PaulBongiorno
    12h12 hours ago

    If you believe “didn’t tell their boss” you are more naive than I thought. In fact I know you are much more cluey than that.
    This mob have no political nous, let alone smarts and integrity.

  7. I have some suggested New Year’s resolutions for my fellow Bludgers:

    1. I’m not going to feed the trolls, and;
    2. I’m going to ignore poster’s I don’t like.

    Guaranteed to make everybody’s experience better.

  8. Hi Ray

    Doesn’t make sense to me. If another referendum were held, they could merely vote the same way they did initially.

    (Ray (UK) says:
    Saturday, December 29, 2018 at 6:10 am
    Hello all, hope everyone had a pleasant Christmas

    Purely anecdotal/not a scientific sample/etc./etc. but during my travels over Christmas to visit family I had several interesting Brexit discussions

    Four members of my immediate family who were ardent Remainers – and voted as such – would all now vote to Leave in any second referendum. Not because they now think Brexit is a good idea – they don’t – but because the original vote must be respected or words to that effect)

  9. Should ScoMo try on the November Reps election option, what will the cross benchers who guaranteed “confidence” do?

    Would enough of them adopt the “all bets are off” option and consider that ScoMo had betrayed their trust?

    Considering that he would have flagged his intentions by holding a half senate only election in May, the outrage in the cross bench would be sufficient to support a no confidence motion.

  10. poroti @ #1388 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 9:04 am

    Andrew_Earlwood says:

    ………..The psychology of the man is that he actually believes he talks directly to The Christ, who talks back to him. ….

    William Burroughs had some advice when dealing with Morrisons……………..

    If you’re doing business with a religious son of a bitch, get it in writing; his word isn’t worth shit, not with the good Lord telling him how to fuck you on the deal.

    Just a pretty picture of my lilies – which lead you to more quotes from William S. Burroughs

    Confusion has set in for me today – wondered just what the author of the Tarzan stories would be doing in the immortal pages of Poll Bludger. Then realization Edgar Rice Burroughs for whom there are some quotes of interest.

    Edgar Rice Burroughs > Quotes

    •“Am I alive and a reality, or am I but a dream?” …
    •“No fiction is worth reading except for entertainment. …
    •“In one respect at least the Martians are a happy people, they have no lawyers.” …
    •“If I had followed my better judgment always, my life would have been a very dull one.”
    “It is a characteristic of the weak and criminal to attribute to others the misfortunes that are the result of their own wickedness.”

    Anyone for tennis ❓ 🎾

  11. DaretoTread @ #1357 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 2:09 am

    3 seconds google
    https://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/17/world/asia/17iht-letter17.html
    Barney
    Most courts, universities, advertising signs, government jobs etc require English. It is the way forward out of poverty. The attached article diverges into some rather off way forward for Dalits but the basic point is there.

    Hindi is the language of the North, not the South where English is the unifier

    Just face it, India is a much more diverse place than your simplified version.

    It’s a land of many languages, religions and cultures.

    While English is widely used, raising the literacy rate in the first language is the primary focus of educators, where strong gender and caste bias are seen.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Literacy_in_India

  12. The curious case of Michael Cohen in Prague grows even more bizarre

    Did Michael Cohen travel to Prague during the 2016 campaign as part of a covert conspiracy with Russians to interfere in the 2016 election? The simple question has become increasingly vexed as Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation ramps up.

    The allegation of Cohen going to Prague first emerged nearly two years ago when BuzzFeed published the famous and infamous Steele Dossier, which contained a slew of nebulous and tantalizing claims of a complex relationship between Donald Trump and the Kremlin. Steele cited sources claiming that Cohen had met with three Kremlin officials in Prague at the end of August 2016 or the beginning of September.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/12/curious-case-michael-cohen-prague-grows-even-bizarre/

  13. Rob Kerin in SA delayed the election due in 2001 all the way into 2002, after the previous election in 1997. He lost Government. The similarities don’t end there either – John Olsen who had previously led the Liberals overthrew Dean Brown who had won a record majority 37-10 in 1993. Olsen then proceeded to nearly lose one election later (a la Turnbull 2016), forcing the Liberals into minority government. And then eventually Olsen was dumped and Kerin (had to look him up as he was so memorable like the current PM) did lose.

    Joan Kirner in Vic delayed the election in 1992 for as long as possible and Labor were annihilated. The delay just built up more anti-Labor angst.

    If Morrison had a workable majority in the House he might have considered this idea of a separate half-Senate election, but the biggest barrier now would be the chaos in the House for nearly a year. And who knows if more Coalition members might leave, sensing they had more chance running as an Independent rather than staying on the (coal-fired) Titanic with Morrison. As for ‘hoping for something to turn up’ to change the game, that can of course go either way. A worsening economic outlook may not be the happiest news to try and scare people into voting for the Coalition. And any more Joyce-Broad type situations where the great morals of Coalition MPs get displayed in the tabloids likewise probably won’t play all that well to the desperately courted ‘base’.

    Lastly in a half-Senate election, even with the bigger quotas required, I think there would be so much anger toward the Government over this ‘mean and tricky’ ploy that they could well lose a few Senate seats that they would hold at a normal election – those Senators would be very grateful to Morrison I’m sure, and they may possibly then share their views on what they thought of a PM who was willing to sacrifice them on the altar of his desire to remain PM while not actually facing the people himself.

    All in all, I expect a March election, and the country would be much better off to get rid of this incompetent Prime Minister and his useless government.

    A May election would be post-budget, and I would so look forward to pictures of ‘Sugar Daddy’ Morrison on the front pages of newspapers handing out goodies like a desperate John Howard in 2007.

    If they did against all odds hold off till November I think the upside would be a few less Coalition Senators than may otherwise have been the case (losing some to minor parties), and a much bigger loss in the House as the people of Australia become desperate to end the chaos.

    So – January 26th, lots of flags, lots of ‘fair dinkum Aussie values’, lots of ‘leading us into future prosperity for all Australians’, and calling election for March to get the country back on track in a ‘fair dinkum’ way.

    With or without ( fairly ‘non-Aussie’) baseball cap.

  14. National security expert reveals how much of the infamous Cohen-in-Prague scenario holds water

    A national security expert on Friday outlined which parts of Michael Cohen’s alleged trip to Prague to help swing Donald Trump’s election hold water — and which parts are more likely to be fiction.

    John R. Schindler noted in the Observer that the infamous Steele dossier alleged that Cohen went to Prague in the summer of 2016 to meet with Russian hackers in what would be “unambiguous collusion between the Trump campaign and the Kremlin.”

    Full John Schindler column :

    https://observer.com/2018/12/michael-cohen-prague-robert-mueller-kremlin/

  15. ‘“didn’t tell their boss” ”

    Whether or not PvO believed this, it is the kind of lie the LNP have been very effective at using, and the media, like PvO has consistently been complicit, in helping them use by writing the story in the ‘government spokesperson said the Minister was not advised’ frame for the whole term of this Government. The media has been very poor at this, and don’t make the mistake of giving PvO any credit for belling any cats now. All credit to Bongiorno though he has consistently raised issues like this.

  16. CNN’s Keith Boykin unloads on pointless shutdown: ‘Trump failed’ — and now ‘800,000 people are suffering’

    Former Clinton White House aide Keith Boykin has clearly had it up to here with President Donald Trump’s blame game — and let loose with a righteous rant on CNN Friday morning.

    Host Kate Bolduan noted that unpaid government workers were growing more nervous as to how long Trump’s shutdown would last into the new Congress, and asked Boykin if there were any funding options House Democrats would accept.

    Trump was putting people’s livelihoods at risk. “800,000 people are still suffering, who are federal government employees who are on furlough, who are on leave, who are working without pay, because Donald Trump decided to have a meltdown to appease his base.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/12/cnns-keith-boykin-unloads-on-pointless-shutdown-trump-failed-and-now-800000-people-are-suffering/

  17. Conservative pundit explains why ‘ridiculous’ Trump may actually shut down Mexican border

    Conservative pundit Bill Kristol said he’d normally dismiss the President’s threat “as just Twitter talk.”

    He pointed out that the President often doesn’t follow through on his more extreme threats. But he also noted that as the President has shed senior advisors, his behavior has gotten more erratic. “He’s gone from speaking rashly to acting rashly,” Kristol pointed out.

    “Who knows what stunt he’ll pull next week to try to seize the political initiative on the border or something ridiculous like that?”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/12/conservative-pundit-explains-ridiculous-trump-may-actually-shut-mexican-border/

  18. Thanks for your excellent work, BK, in bringing us a summary of today’s news.
    The one about Michelle Guthrie seeking re-appontment is especially intriguing.

    “A director who did not wish to be named said the board had made a collective decision to sack Ms Guthrie, and the criticism she has faced since leaving made it difficult to imagine her return: “I don’t know why she’d want to”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/completely-unworkable-guthrie-s-push-to-return-to-the-abc-slammed-20181228-p50ojw.html
    Indeed. Why would she?
    Perhaps she is being encouraged by a Gov’t which wants her hand back on the tiller. The temporary MD, David Anderson, is a 30year ABC veteran employee who has already allowed ABC reporting, and satire, to revert to the relatively unbiased model. The change is obvious already.
    Definitely not what RWNJs want so close to elections.

  19. Victoria says: Saturday, December 29, 2018 at 9:50 am

    Phoenix Red

    Just saw your post with Schindlers latest. The tweet is mentioned in his report

    ****************************************************

    Dem reporter Scott Dworkin had an interesting comment yesterday regarding Michael Cohens phone in Prague – if he was not there maybe he loaned it to someone else who was in Prague ????? …….. Like Don Jr ???

    Scott Dworkin‏Verified account @funder

    Here’s video I found of Donald Trump, Jr. speaking fluent Czech & saying he speaks it fluently. He then explains how he & his family went to Czech Rep every summer for 2 months every year growing up. With all this Prague talk, this video is interesting…

    ( Hope this links to his report :

    https://twitter.com/funder/status/1078483567183908865 )

    Tea Pain‏ @TeaPainUSA

    “Cohen’s cell phone” was briefly activated near Prague. That don’t necessarily mean Cohen himself was there. Remember, Cohen was known for havin’ a number of burner phones in his possession. One possible conclusion is that he loaned a burner to someone close. Get it? ;->

  20. Mavis Smith

    I think it’s unfortunate that Hawke has admitted to ‘terrible health’ (although anyone can see he’s gradually failing) because he’s given permission for the tabloid media to do a ‘death watch’ on him.

  21. This really is a quite pathetic abdication our problems. 🙁

    Neil Prakash, the Melbourne man who became a recruiter for Islamic State, has been stripped of his Australian citizenship.

    The 27-year-old was told of the Australian government’s decision on 21 December, becoming the 12th dual national to have their citizenship annulled over associations with offshore terror groups.

    It is understood Prakash holds Fijian citizenship through his father.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/dec/29/neil-prakash-stripped-of-australian-citizenship

  22. So – January 26th, lots of flags

    Dumb flags.
    Nothing pisses me off more than the mindless importance given to them during peace time. I can see the utility of them during war time and on the battle field – it seems to me that the essential cultural characteristics of wartime have been hijacked to give meaning to some peoples lives, especially when their tightly held and out dated values get challenged.

    This hijacking is ignorant of what war has taught us. War is terrible and to be avoided. To be overproud of a country and its imagined culture is partly what gets us into wars in the first place.

  23. For Western Australia, there was a gap of 4 years and 6 months (normal term 4 years) between the 2008 State election on 6/9/2008 and the next election held 9/3/2013. The 2008 election resulted in the replacement of a Labor Government by a minority Liberal Government. The 2013 election resulted in a convincing Liberal win.

  24. Barney,

    “Fine, but that’s completely different to saying that India dictated the schedule.”

    Yeah, India are certainly not very well known for throwing their financial and political weight around in the cricket world, to achieve their desired outcome.

  25. Envy.

    Envy is one of the Seven deadly sins in Roman Catholicism.

    Imagine if you will.

    Hospital setting. The patient comatose on the trolley, starkers, appearing just as well as can be expected.

    Problem. Is the gentleman faking unconsciousness ❓

    Who shall conduct the time honoured test ❓ Rather severe nipple twist (clockwise).

    Riot ensues as staff club, stab, butt, elbow each other in the rush to perform the test.

    Calm is restored as the patient – the Federal Member for ………………………………… (insert your electorate) opens eyes. Junior nurse whining in background “I didn’t get a go — its not fair.” 😇

  26. Desert Qlder @ #1433 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 6:26 am

    Barney,

    “Fine, but that’s completely different to saying that India dictated the schedule.”

    Yeah, India are certainly not very well known for throwing their financial and political weight around in the cricket world, to achieve their desired outcome.

    At ICC level, yep, but Australia and England have never done that! 🙂

    It’s a problem with the ICC that those who generate the main revenue have been able to dominate policy.

    That’s very different from what was being suggested regarding scheduling.

  27. There has been numerous cases of minority state governments going on to win majorities at the next election (QLD Labor most recently, WA Libs in 2013, NSW Labor with Bob Carr). With only two minority federal governments since WWII and one of them still in office, they dont have as much history. However as we all found out, it didnt go all that well for Labor. If that tiny history continues its not good for Scomo and the Coalition.

    Maybe minority government is difficult at the federal level, maybe a lack of history and experience to rely on also plays a part.

    Note – not a critisicm of the Labor Minority govt 2010-2013.

  28. A few years ago, I used to skip all posts made between 11 pm and BK’s Dawn Patrol post. Might have to go back to that!

    Yeah. There was a time when valuable discussions on The Goodies, music, huntsmen spiders, gardening and shovels were to be had during the late sessions.
    And now, A Walk in the Black Forest…
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ki5DJz05Ol0

  29. lizzie:

    [‘I think it’s unfortunate that Hawke has admitted to ‘terrible health’ (although anyone can see he’s gradually failing) because he’s given permission for the tabloid media to do a ‘death watch’ on him.’]

    Agree. Sad to learn he’s so sick, Labor’s longest serving prime minister. I do hope he lasts to see his party return to power, whether it be March, May or November.

  30. good point re “Dumb flags” SK

    They belong on the battlefield.
    They do not belong on the roofs of cars or anywhere else on Jan26.
    Jingoism is an abomination.
    Famously used by Howard to divide our communities, all display of state and federal flags on private property should be banned, and restricted to state and federal buildings.

  31. IoM @ #1438 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 6:36 am

    There has been numerous cases of minority state governments going on to win majorities at the next election (QLD Labor most recently, WA Libs in 2013, NSW Labor with Bob Carr). With only two minority federal governments since WWII and one of them still in office, they dont have as much history. However as we all found out, it didnt go all that well for Labor. If that tiny history continues its not good for Scomo and the Coalition.

    Maybe minority government is difficult at the federal level, maybe a lack of history and experience to rely on also plays a part.

    Note – not a critisicm of the Labor Minority govt 2010-2013.

    How many of those went into minority during their Parliamentary term rather than were always a minority?

  32. Steve 777

    The long term for the WA Parliament in 2013 was because the Parliament agreed to make the four year term a fixed one with the Election to be held on the second Saturday in March so nothing to do with timing or seeming electoral advantage for the government of the day.

  33. phoenixRED @ #1425 Saturday, December 29th, 2018 – 8:59 am

    Dem reporter Scott Dworkin had an interesting comment yesterday regarding Michael Cohens phone in Prague – if he was not there maybe he loaned it to someone else who was in Prague ????? …….. Like Don Jr ???

    If these people can’t recognize how incredibly preposterous the idea that an attorney would lend their personal cell phone to anyone, unsupervised, for a couple days of international travel actually is, then they should probably just resign from their reporting jobs.

    Occam’s razor says that if Cohen’s phone went to Prague, then so did Cohen. And that if he says otherwise, he’s simply lying.

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