BludgerTrack: 54.3-45.7 to Labor

BludgerTrack ends a year to remember by showing a slight narrowing in the still-yawning two-party gap.

Ipsos and Essential Research closed their accounts for 2018 this week, and their combined effect has been to reduce Labor’s lead to 54.3-45.7 after a blowout to 54.9-45.1 last week. This is good for one Coalition gain on the seat projection, that being in Queensland. Full results through the link below.

We’re unlikely to see any more poll results until mid-January, although Newspoll should be unloading its quarterly state breakdowns in a week or so, and hopefully a few state voting intention results as well. Nonetheless, things should be pretty active around here over the silly season, as there’s a backlog preselection analysis to attend to, and I should finally get time to attend to my long-promised Morrison-era overhaul of BludgerTrack.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,141 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.3-45.7 to Labor”

  1. Too much detail for Christmas morning, but you might bookmark it…

    “A fraud on the environment” is how lawyers for the Royal Commission framed it. Cronyism, cover-ups, deception, secrecy, scientists “leaned on”. The Murray-Darling Basin Royal Commission report is to be handed down in little over a month and the outcome, for Australia’s water authorities, will not be pretty. Triskele reports – in a tragi-comedy in three acts – on the extraordinary events surrounding Australia’s most critical inland water system.

    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/murray-darling-basin-authority-a-royal-commissioned-farce/

  2. Rocket Rocket, thanks for the comments.

    Re the Singing Ship monument. They actually have toned it down a lot now. “Some” people complained about the noise when it was windy.

    True story, a lot of the older town inhabitants would use the “Ship” as a fishing barometor. If they heard the Ship singing in the early hours they would not consider putting the boats in the water for a days fishing.

  3. On this festive day I think of fellow Australians who do it tough every day, some without a roof. On the wider world I am sure we all find it difficult to think what the past year must have been like. Stay safe 🙂

  4. “Does anybody consider Trump as anti-christ?”

    I had always considered the anti-Christ to be smarter, more successful and less of a childish sook, but yeah maybe I was wrong.

  5. I haven’t followed the current US Government shutdown issue closely, so maybe I’m not understanding the nuances. Correct me if I’m wrong, but Trump is blaming the democrats for not passing legislation to fund his border wall even though until 3 January, 2019 the Republicans have controlled both houses of Congress for the entirety of Trump’s presidency?

    How does that work? I know that as a convention the senate is supposed to work on the basis of a “super majority” of 60 votes and I heard Trump yelling something to Schumer about the democrats blocking the super majority, but whenever has this convention ever stopped McConnell and the senate republicans ramming through controversial legislation whenever it suits them?

    Am I getting something wrong with my conclusion that Trump is holding the federal governemnt and all the citizens who depend upon it to ransom because his own party won’t support funding his stupid wall and trump is now deflecting blame onto the democrats who haven’t yet seized control of one house of congress?

    I’m sure I’ve gotten something wrong along the way, perhaps a helpful Bludger might point out what it is. …

  6. lizzie @ #1961 Tuesday, December 25th, 2018 – 10:00 am

    I’m trying to remember when a hot day was just a hot day.

    When the kids were small, circa late 70s, we would set up the blow up plastic pool on what we called a lawn – well, it were lawn to us – and filled it with water for the two of them to play in on the first really hot day in summer in Armidale.

    Next day would turn out cool, of course, and a week or two later we would tip out the by now green water, and put the pool away for next year.

    We used to say ‘I guess that’s it, summer came on a Tuesday this year’

    Now we get weeks and weeks of above 30 C. The AC is getting a workout again this year, luckily when you get hot weather is mostly when the skies are clear, and the PV panels on the roof easily keep our usage to zero.

  7. Rocket Rocket says:
    Tuesday, December 25, 2018 at 8:44 am
    briefly, sprocket_

    We (Australia) desperately need to get rid of this government. The quicker the better – I am really hoping Morrison goes to the GG on Jan 26 (I’m predicting this for the faux symbolism ) so we can fix this country starting March 2nd

    I could not agree more strongly RR.

  8. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1966 Tuesday, December 25th, 2018 – 6:29 am

    I haven’t followed the current US Government shutdown issue closely, so maybe I’m not understanding the nuances. Correct me if I’m wrong, but Trump is blaming the democrats for not passing legislation to fund his border wall even though until 3 January, 2019 the Republicans have controlled both houses of Congress for the entirety of Trump’s presidency?

    How does that work? I know that as a convention the senate is supposed to work on the basis of a “super majority” of 60 votes and I heard Trump yelling something to Schumer about the democrats blocking the super majority, but whenever has this convention ever stopped McConnell and the senate republicans ramming through controversial legislation whenever it suits them?

    Am I getting something wrong with my conclusion that Trump is holding the federal governemnt and all the citizens who depend upon it to ransom because his own party won’t support funding his stupid wall and trump is now deflecting blame onto the democrats who haven’t yet seized control of one house of congress?

    I’m sure I’ve gotten something wrong along the way, perhaps a helpful Bludger might point out what it is. …

    I think it’s similar to Labor policies, yet to be implemented, are responsible for falling housing prices, increasing rents, collapsing share prices, rising power prices, etc 🙂

  9. “I have always considered the anti-Christ to be a figment of religions imagination, just like doG.”

    What a lovely sweet sentiment. Really? You needed to play that card? And I thought Morrison / LNP Christmas greeting was going to win the ‘no taste – no idea’ award for the day. Dog bless you.

  10. WeWantPaul @ #1975 Tuesday, December 25th, 2018 – 6:58 am

    “I have always considered the anti-Christ to be a figment of religions imagination, just like doG.”

    What a lovely sweet sentiment. Really? You needed to play that card? And I thought Morrison / LNP Christmas greeting was going to win the ‘no taste – no idea’ award for the day. Dog bless you.

    What you mean the anti-Christ is real!!! 😆

    But anyway it was more a comment on why does everything somehow need a label and how these mostly descends into a binary good-evil divide.

    Almost as lazy as your outrage! 🙂

  11. A_E –
    The Democrats are using the filibuster (or threat thereof) to keep the wall from being funded.

    The Republicans do not yet seem prepared to nuke the filibuster (although I have vague recollections from discussions about this in the past that there are some timing issues – like there’s a loophole that allows the Senate to rewrite its procedures with a simple majority, but only at the very beginning of a session or something, but then there’s a bunch of stuff about what type of bill it is and procedural weirdness, which I don’t even pretend to understand, or really care about, so who knows?), because the Republicans know that it serves them much better than it serves the Democrats.

    Regardless, clearly Congress is not in the way of funding the government (sans Wall), it is just Donald Trump stamping his feet and holding his breath over his Wall because Fox and Friends goaded him into it. Hopefully someone other than Trump can win the politics of this.

  12. Trump is desperate for a win. He mistakenly thinks he can extort a win over the wall by holding the country to ransom. But rather than notching a plus, he is going to carry the blame for a futile, destructive shutdown and the ignominy of another political defeat. His Presidency is imploding. These are troubling times for America. I wonder how the pop-left feel about him these days. They have been very quiet for some time.

  13. Well I just got off the phone to my mum who is absolutely heartbroken. Her favourite dog became gravely ill over the weekend and probably won’t survive. It seems like his kidneys are shutting down and he has an enlarged heart. Some Xmas present!

    (︺︹︺)

  14. So Jackol – why didn’t Trump insist on the senate republicans testing the democrat filibuster or going with a nuclear option at any time over the past 22 months? Perhaps tying such a move to the things that the republicans have always cared about – conservative Supreme Court nominations and tax cuts? It just amazing that Trump is still solid with “the base” given his failure to get his own party in congress to fund the wall.

  15. Morning all. I hope everyone is having a great christmas day – it is a beautiful morning here in Adelaide, though about to get hot.

    Regarding this story, I see I am not the only civil engineer here to express concern. This should not happen in a building certified as “habitable”.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-25/sydney-opal-tower-some-residents-unable-to-return-home/10667636

    There are a few christmas goodies I’d like only a Labor government can give, and the above only adds to the list. So here goes with an engineers wish list.
    1. National building standards to ensure no Grenfell tower fires here
    2. Government building inspectors to end the neo-Liberal farce of private certification.
    3. National design standards for urban streets and adopting the Swedish “vision zero” safety policy, and using it to allocate funds.
    4. National construction, design, and rolling stock standards for rail and light rail, so there are no more Sydney SE LRT fiascos. (And to support local manufacturing)
    5. Industry skills training in rail technology (via Labor Tafe policy)
    6. A national energy market with renewables target (Labor policy)
    7. All infrastructure funding decisions via IA and a consistent rolling program in rail and LRT projects, rather than freeways, to build a stable industry that can build up a workforce, instead of the current destructive boom bust cycles (Greens and Labor policy)
    8. National laws on liability for construction workplace safety that get resourced and enforced (SA demonstrates the folly of law without skilled enforcement).
    9. An inquiry into tendering practices on large road projects in Australia.
    10. A shift away from toll roads to a more consistent and equitable road pricing strategy (Stockholm has a good example.)

    So if I want that I better hope the Liberals lose soon!

  16. Hello again, Jonathan the Sydney Silkie bark machine is quite old, at least 12, so he has had a good trot but to give you an idea about how attached my parents get to their fur babies, this year for Xmas I got an old original painting, of 2 kittens playing with the fish in a goldfish bowl, restored and framed for her. She loves it, of course, because she also sends me an email every day with her ‘daily funnies’ containing animals doing the cutest things.

    She also took in a 14 year old cat this year that some heartless creep had dumped because it needed vet care. She paid for the vet and gave it a home.

    So, the new year without her little mate is going to be tough.

    I don’t know about a Rescue dog either, she’s just a shade under 80.

    Such is life.

  17. Cat, Lizzie

    Here in Adelaide the Animal Shelter at Wingfield takes excellent care of rescue cats and dogs it seeks to adopt out. We have gotten several from there over the years and after a bit of TLC and reassurance that they have a new home they have made wonderful additions to the household. Some are a bit skittish at first, but once they feel safe they respond very well.

  18. Not in Australia, but when we still lived in Seattle (actually Bellevue/Redmond, but no-one’s heard of those neighbouring cities), we homed elderly German Shepherd rescue dogs and gave them 2-3 years of good life. The last ones delayed our travel to Melbourne because they were too old to travel or re-home again. I don’t know if a similar opportunities exist here, but it was very rewarding.

  19. “Almost as lazy as your outrage! ”

    It wasn’t lazy outrage it was just unsurprised disappointment. I’m mean it kinda made Morrison’s point for him and that is you know, disappointing. That you need to mock others beliefs is you know disappointing.

    As a metaphor for all that is bad, I think antichrist and Trump work well together. You know as a metaphor.

  20. Morning all. A Merry and Happy Christmas to all. With the family up in Hokkaido now. Snow overnight and this morning. A white Christmas.

    Told the kids I never saw snow till I was 17 and went on a Snowy Mountains school trip (picked mangoes to pay for that).

    Asked my parents to come along but they feel the cold when it gets below 20 degrees. A hot Christmas as usual for them and my siblings.

    How our lives have changed in the space of a generation. I think massively thanks to the Hawke and Keating Governments who have set Australia up for its future prosperity and engagement with Asia.

    The Howard and Morrison Governments have tried desperately to turn back the clock. But they won’t succeed. Australians for all our worries and concerns have felt the benefits of Australia’s engagement with Asia.

    Good tidings to all!!

  21. A_E –

    Perhaps tying such a move to the things that the republicans have always cared about – conservative Supreme Court nominations and tax cuts?

    Well, the Republicans did nuke the filibuster on Supreme Court nominations this term (the Dems had nuked the filibuster on nominations for things other than the Supreme Court last term), which is why Gorsuch and Kavanaugh got up.

    But the filibuster on bills remains for now, with loopholes.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Filibuster_in_the_United_States_Senate#Abolition_for_nominations:_2013_and_2017

    As to how this will play out with the relationship between Trump and the Senate Republicans, who knows. If Trump doesn’t get traction blaming the Dems I have no doubt that Trump will aim full fire at McConnell and friends, and that may well force them into backing Trump and his Wall giving Trump his win. I would hope that the Dems can’t really afford to back down on this so if that means that Trump gets his way by forcing the Senate Republicans to push this through overriding the filibuster threat then … well Trump and the Dems win (politically, and procedurally; I don’t imagine the Dems would be terribly happy about the Wall going ahead, but the Wall is not the end of the world as far as it goes), and the Republicans lose.

    The Senate Republicans might grow a spine and en masse turn on Trump; that would precipitate all out brawling that could lead anywhere, including impeachment, but no doubt it would be crisis and chaos for many months, and you would imagine the Republicans would be the losers regardless.

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