BludgerTrack: 54.3-45.7 to Labor

BludgerTrack ends a year to remember by showing a slight narrowing in the still-yawning two-party gap.

Ipsos and Essential Research closed their accounts for 2018 this week, and their combined effect has been to reduce Labor’s lead to 54.3-45.7 after a blowout to 54.9-45.1 last week. This is good for one Coalition gain on the seat projection, that being in Queensland. Full results through the link below.

We’re unlikely to see any more poll results until mid-January, although Newspoll should be unloading its quarterly state breakdowns in a week or so, and hopefully a few state voting intention results as well. Nonetheless, things should be pretty active around here over the silly season, as there’s a backlog preselection analysis to attend to, and I should finally get time to attend to my long-promised Morrison-era overhaul of BludgerTrack.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,141 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.3-45.7 to Labor”

  1. Regarding Senators from ACT and NT , all 4 have to front up at every election, no short term or long term involved. They will therefore go 1 Labor in each and 1 Lib/CLP in each.
    They always balance each other out. Only time they need to be taken into account is if an additional Senator is added to ACT which has been done for some years in the past.
    Sorr I didnt include them in the total, you are correct with 76 Senators

  2. Good Christmas morning all.
    May you all have a very happy festive time and thanks to one and all for making this one hell of a good blog. Labor in 2019

  3. On infinities:

    So how many infinities are there?
    Infinitely many more than any infinity; infinitely many more than you or anybody can possibly imagine; lots and lots and lots.

    Have a look at
    https://qntm.org/infinities
    if you want to have your head spin.

    Although some liquid christmas cheer may give a more enjoyable result!

  4. Good morning and Merry Christmas Dawn Patrollers!

    This is a good effort. And I doubt it was the fault of union thugs.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/olympic-park-residents-make-new-sleeping-arrangements-after-christmas-eve-evacuation-20181224-p50o5h.html
    All Trump has left now is his rabid base.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/as-critics-see-the-president-spiralling-down-trump-sees-a-winning-hand-20181225-p50o5n.html
    Stephen Bartholomeusz wonders what would happen if Trump DID fire the head of the Fed.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/what-if-donald-trump-did-fire-the-federal-reserve-chairman-20181224-p50o24.html
    Robert Reich is of the opinion that the US is on the edge of the economic precipice and Trump may push it over.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/23/us-economic-precipice-donald-trump-government-shutdown
    Bloomberg tells us that the world will pay for not dealing with debt.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/the-world-will-pay-for-not-dealing-with-debt-20181224-p50o2m.html
    More from Bloomberg as it advises that Ii the economic pessimism persists in 2019, we should expect oil prices to continue drifting lower as demand forecasts get cut. But if some of those concerns start to ease, the rebound could be swift.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/what-s-got-oil-so-spooked-it-s-the-economy-stupid-20181224-p50o2f.html
    Here’s the first independent candidate who will make life difficult for Abbott in Warringah.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/susan-moylan-coombs-to-run-as-an-independent-against-tony-abbott-in-warringah-20181224-p50o1w.html
    As long as the economy is doing well and people have jobs, the RBA is not too concerned about falling property prices increasing negative equity.
    https://www.outline.com/GMyeMe
    Patrick Hatch writes that Hungry Jack’s and the federal government have come under fire from unions over the fast-food chain’s involvement in a taxpayer-funded job placement program.
    https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/whopper-rip-off-hungry-jacks-grilled-over-6-an-hour-internships-20181224-p50o20.html
    Apple received 2,357 “device requests” from the Australian government and law enforcement in the first half of 2018, the third-highest rate of requests in the world.
    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/dec/25/australia-made-third-highest-number-of-requests-for-apple-data-in-the-world
    The Auditor-General has released legal advice that says he can’t discuss redacted sections of his own report even if the committee he answers to already has the information.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/auditor-general-releases-legal-advice-that-continues-hawkei-gag-20181221-p50nt9.html
    Eryk Bagshaw explains how the number of domestic violence related calls are expected to surge by 20 per cent during the Christmas-New Year’s break, due to alcohol, stress and a higher frequency of family gatherings.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/domestic-violence-to-surge-over-christmas-20181224-p50o25.html

    Cartoon Corner

    An excellent poem from Mark David.

    Some Christmas cheer from Glen Le Lievre.

  5. Akubra
    We are facing five total fire bans on the trot here in the Hills. so on alternate days our CFS brigade will be on active standby – that is kitted up at the station and ready to roll.

  6. Happy Christmas holiday, everyone.

    How delightful it was to go to a PB dinner party last night and listen to the intelligent conversation. This is what makes PB so interesting, even when some of the discussions are far above my pay grade. Thank you all.

  7. Tim Beshara
    ‏@Tim_Beshara

    Christmas Eve dump by @envirogov & @Melissa4Durack opening public comment period for the EPBC approval for a major @WoodsideEnergy Burrup Peninsula project. Excavating 2,781,700 cubic metres of the sea floor in an area surrounded by nature reserves.

    http://epbcnotices.environment.gov.au/publicnoticesreferrals/

    Tim Beshara

    I am sure everyone can spend their Christmas contemplating the environmental risks of excavating 32.7 kilometres long trench 30 metres wide and 4.3 metres deep through the Dampier Archipelago

  8. Based on Steve Martin’s rationale – all senators should spend at least 500,000 moving or changing their offices because it is good for the local economy.

  9. Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol

    I just wrote a piece about

    Your Daily Horoscope for Tuesday, December 25
    and pushed key ❓ whereupon the screen turned the dashboard and I lost my little piece of trashy imitation jewellry. Woe is me.

    🎄🎅🎅

  10. I would also like to thank William for this blog. Mostly entertaining, sometimes informative, always worthwhile.
    Here’s to a non-boring 2019!!! May the polls continue to rise in much the same way as they did in 2018.

  11. ‘Hannity is only a phone call away’: Twitter mocks Trump after he tweeted ‘poor me’ for being home alone

    On Monday, President Donald Trump tweeted that he was “all alone” in the White House because of the government shutdown. The partial government shutdown is due to Trump refusing to sign off on funding until he gets his border wall.

    “I am all alone (poor me) in the White House waiting for the Democrats to come back and make a deal on desperately needed Border Security. At some point the Democrats not wanting to make a deal will cost our Country more money than the Border Wall we are all talking about. Crazy!” he tweeted.

    Brian Krassenstein @krassenstein

    You are alone in the White House because your ego outweighs your desire to do what’s right for America.

    While you are alone in a Mansion, there are 800,000 Americans not being paid this Christmas, you out of touch baby.

    Terry”best at tech” Kinney

    all alone? so I guess you’re blasting Fox News over all the speakers. President Nixon took solace in the paintings of past presidents. they talked into the wee hours. and remember, Hannity is just a burner phone call away.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/12/hannity-phone-call-away-twitter-mocks-trump-tweeted-poor-home-alone/

  12. Merry xmas Bludgers! It feels strange to see shops and cafes open today, and (shock of shocks!) the street sweeper just went down the street!

    #citylife

  13. phoenixRed:

    😀

    Alex Seitz-WaldVerified account@aseitzwald
    3h3 hours ago

    T’was the night before Christmas, when in the White House.
    A creature was tweeting, with keyboard and mouse.
    The shutdown continued, but he felt no one cared.
    As he hoped that the Wall Money, soon would be there.

  14. Seasons greetings to all and thanks especially to William for hosting the blog, BK for the morning roundup and those who make for interesting, if sometimes heated, exchange of ideas.

    Hopefully some kind soul will give Donald ‘Poor Me’ Trump a turkey leg and piece of fruit cake to chew on today.

  15. Has Melania and his son even bailed on him?

    Donald J. TrumpVerified account@realDonaldTrump
    3h3 hours ago
    I am all alone (poor me) in the White House waiting for the Democrats to come back and make a deal on desperately needed Border Security. At some point the Democrats not wanting to make a deal will cost our Country more money than the Border Wall we are all talking about. Crazy!

  16. God
    @TheTweetOfGod

    This year for his birthday I got Jesus a new race of sentient creatures whose sins don’t need to be died for quite so often.

  17. jeffemu

    Loved the painting you posted here a while ago.

    Had to tell you that years ago we had an Australian road atlas – and near Emu Park it had “Captain Cook Sinking Ship Monument”. Eventually when we got there we found it was ‘Singing Ship’ with the wind supplying the sound (and one time we went there post cyclone it was very loud!)

    Though of course he nearly did sink on the reef near whee Cooktown is today – probably saved by a piece of coral that broke off the reef and stayed plugged into the hull.

  18. Merry Christmas Bludgers, one and all. We may be just a few weeks away from the election campaign – from the election of a strong majority Labor Government and the demolition of a corrupt, decadent and wilfully negligent LNP.

    I’m particularly looking forward to the ejection from the Parliament of Tony Abbott, the most destructive politician ever to hold a seat in Canberra.

  19. Confessions says: Tuesday, December 25, 2018 at 7:46 am

    phoenixRed:

    Alex Seitz-WaldVerified account@aseitzwald
    3h3 hours ago

    T’was the night before Christmas, when in the White House.
    A creature was tweeting, with keyboard and mouse.
    The shutdown continued, but he felt no one cared.
    As he hoped that the Wall Money, soon would be there.

    *********************************************************

    Thanks Confessions – it would be funny if it was not so serious …..

    Democratic senator reveals that Republicans in Congress privately believe Trump is ‘nuts’

    Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) said that when she’s been alone with Senate Republicans, they’ve intimated that the president is unfit to serve.

    “Now they’ll tell you, if it’s just the two of you, ‘The guy is nuts, he doesn’t have a grasp of the issues, he’s making rash decisions, he’s not listening to people who know the subject matter,’” McCaskill told CNN.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/12/democratic-senator-reveals-republicans-congress-privately-believe-trump-nuts/

    Anyways – hope you have a fabulous Xmas Day with your family and friends 🙂

  20. I gave the garden a drink last night and felt the reward as I rose early to enjoy the birds and last of the insects. The heat will muster its sedative powers soon enough, so will enjoy my early moment.
    Thanks to all, Happy Christmas to all, especially WB, BK and C@t. My present will unwrap itself soon as we speed into the New Year with the imminent elections and the brilliant people changing technology at a rate giving hope for all.
    The factors of capitalism may well save us all from the capitalists preferred black rock and its assortment of cousins.
    A remark of all the rivers run(with water) would be nice!

  21. Poll Bludgers housy/bingo. Snakes alive – its number five.
    At last I know that it is its not it’s – or summat.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/queensland/bayside-family-finds-snake-in-their-toilet-roll-20181224-p50o4r.html

    Damn. Thirty years ago I had a clever plan to eliminate a bunch of co-workers (in the negative sense).
    I planned to inveigle, hypnotise, entice or otherwise lure many, many daddy long legged spiders into the space where the aforementioned workers rested during working hours.

    For reasons lost now in the mists of time and surrounded by an infinity of particles set loose by the shutting down of the Large Hadron Collider the plan was abandoned. An investigation by the Myth Busters disappointed me in that the poison from the said spiders (not the one pictured above) is very potent but extremely tiny in volume – so that my plan was doomed to failure.

    Now with the publishing of the snake in the toilet roll holder I should have focused my attention to northern climes.

    I like to read detective, police procedural, mystery stories and occasionally when settling for a night of peaceful sleep I try to think of a plan for an undetectable murder. This works really well because I almost instantly go to sleep – murder plan in obeyance until the next time.

    Why the photos at the top ❓ Dunno. Could have been Karl or Ms. Julie.

    About thirty years ago my wife received a Christmas Card from a gentleman who had been on a Guide Dog course with her. Both of them were braille beginners.

    Bill’s card when translated read Fappy New Weir. Braille is really hard and a misplace dot can change the meaning.

    Just about time for visitors.

    Fappy new weir everybody. 😵

  22. Thank you, Goll! I am not as lyrical as you so I hope you keep coming back next year and supplying your whimsical thoughts. A poetic perspective is always good to have.

    ♪☆\(^0^\) ♪(/^-^)/☆

  23. Australia follows along, or leading the way?
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/23/us-economic-precipice-donald-trump-government-shutdown
    See a pattern?

    The problem isn’t that Americans are living beyond their means. It’s that their means haven’t been keeping up with the growing economy. Most gains have gone to the top. If the majority of households had taken home a larger share of national income, they wouldn’t have needed to go so deeply into debt.

  24. And my own Xmas wish is that 2019 brings true engagement, reconciliation and treaty with Australia’s aboriginal peoples – this card from the National Congress of Australia’s First People’s hints at the richer nation we could be..

  25. briefly, sprocket_

    We (Australia) desperately need to get rid of this government. The quicker the better – I am really hoping Morrison goes to the GG on Jan 26 (I’m predicting this for the faux symbolism ) so we can fix this country starting March 2nd

  26. And my own Xmas wish is that 2019 brings true engagement, reconciliation and treaty with Australia’s aboriginal peoples

    We need to boot this govt out first. Nothing is going to happen with a treaty or Constitutional recognition while we have a govt too busy chasing ideological pursuits like where our embassy in Israel should be located, or whether people say merry christmas or whatever.

  27. A very merry Christmas to all my fellow PBs, with special mention to William and BK for all their hard work throughout the year. Have a wonderful day with your families and friends and stay safe on the roads.

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