BludgerTrack: 54.3-45.7 to Labor

BludgerTrack ends a year to remember by showing a slight narrowing in the still-yawning two-party gap.

Ipsos and Essential Research closed their accounts for 2018 this week, and their combined effect has been to reduce Labor’s lead to 54.3-45.7 after a blowout to 54.9-45.1 last week. This is good for one Coalition gain on the seat projection, that being in Queensland. Full results through the link below.

We’re unlikely to see any more poll results until mid-January, although Newspoll should be unloading its quarterly state breakdowns in a week or so, and hopefully a few state voting intention results as well. Nonetheless, things should be pretty active around here over the silly season, as there’s a backlog preselection analysis to attend to, and I should finally get time to attend to my long-promised Morrison-era overhaul of BludgerTrack.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,141 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.3-45.7 to Labor”

  1. Sceptic @ #1815 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 8:16 pm

    Opal Tower

    Design by Bates Smart, looking at the onl9ne floor plans, it is a deep floor plate ,triangular shaped building , column free, so,from drawings it’s a safe bet the walls are load bearing concrete. 9 can’t find columns on any drawings )
    So it’s a full concrete construction & would be very stiff structurally.
    Total stable, even flying a plane into it wouldn’t result in a collapse.

    Media beat up is my prediction

    The doors are jammed closed, and there was a loud bang, heard by everyone in the building. Probably on the 13th floor.

    The media are very clever. They have arranged for the the evacuation of over 3,000 mythical people.

  2. poroti @ #1847 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 8:20 pm

    Late Riser

    Read an article recently that suggested there is a push back starting against the “if we have an equation it must be true” element of Quantum stuff.

    It took me too long to get past the idea that somehow an equation, or indeed mathematics, is truth. That the equations “work” is a tribute to our imagination and our stubborn logic. In itself though it doesn’t make them “true”. They are supremely valuable tools we should be prepared to improve, replace or add to. If there is push back, great. As long as we remember about babies and bathwater.

  3. Greensborough Growler says:
    Monday, December 24, 2018 at 9:18 pm
    My kids tell me there is no such time as sunrise.

    They must be teenagers. Nocturnal creatures we do not understand.

  4. Player One @ #1856 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 9:49 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1855 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 9:45 pm

    imacca @ #1854 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 9:41 pm

    https://asiapacificdefencereporter.com/successful-nz-space-launch-by-rocket-lab-nuship-aotearoa/

    we have a space agency, and still the Kiwi’s beat us to it. 🙁

    It’s OK. We’ll just Russell Crowe them and own it!

    If we give them back Russel Crowe, can we have Jacinda Ardern???

    Unfortunately, our Kiwi brethren are not as dim as they sim.

  5. The first thought that went through my head when I saw the Opal Tower was that the whole area sits on mush. That’s the proper geotechnical term. You’d assume though that the people who built the foundations would have been pretty conservative. Well you’d think so.

  6. Late Riser

    Part of the ‘rebel’ push is against the notion of “beauty’ in equations being an indication of their truth. As in who the f’cuk said anything in nature had to be beautiful to us apes to be true ?

  7. Peter Stanton @ #1804 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 6:28 pm

    Engineering is an attempt to use science to predict the future. Works better than faith. Fractals prove there is no hope. Fractals are depressing.

    Fractals are awesome. They show that even (seemingly) random things aren’t.

    My understanding is that there are a whole bunch of infinities, some bigger than others.

    No, there are only two infinities, the ‘big’ one and the ‘small’ one. The big one is infinitely more infinite than the small one.

  8. a r @ #1864 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 10:09 pm

    Peter Stanton @ #1804 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 6:28 pm

    Engineering is an attempt to use science to predict the future. Works better than faith. Fractals prove there is no hope. Fractals are depressing.

    Fractals are awesome. They show that even (seemingly) random things aren’t.

    My understanding is that there are a whole bunch of infinities, some bigger than others.

    No, there are only two infinities, the ‘big’ one and the ‘small’ one. The big one is infinitely more infinite than the small one.

    Which one provides the better sex?

  9. Sceptic, Seriously, I am an engineer myself, at least originally.

    This google view shows the pillars supporting the Opal Tower. It does not look like a full concrete structure to me. Maybe you know better.

    https://www.google.com.au/maps/@-33.8495881,151.0737792,3a,75y,40.37h,108.16t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1s-mmmSFp7A3jNX7flcz2_kA!2e0!7i13312!8i6656?hl=en-GB&authuser=0

    This satellite view shows the site before building began.

    https://www.google.com.au/maps/place/Australia+Towers/@-33.8489535,151.0741735,436m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x6b12a4c90a948e6b:0xea4a85668aa30068!8m2!3d-33.8481122!4d151.0734198?hl=en-GB&authuser=0

    The building occupies the space between the word ‘Bikes’ in the bike parking notice, and the curved path you can see south of it. You can see a pond. I played here when I was a teenager, and know the whole area, from well pre-Olympic Park, when the site was the government abattoirs, and the State Brickworks. The pond was there until earlier this year (see image date), in a depression about 30 metres deep,( to the water surface), which depression was an early brick pit. They have filled this large depression to build the Opal tower. The pond was very deep. I have dived down in the middle, and could not reach the bottom.


  10. Late Riser says:
    ..
    My philosophy now might be summed as “We haven’t a clue. We never will. So who cares?

    Utube allows you to view lectures from people who do; the universe is just mind bending. It sure beats believing in a vindictive god.

  11. Apologies if JK Rowling’s epic xmas twitter rant – in 16 parts – has already been posted. If not, I’m sure that Boerwar and Briefly amongst other Bludgers will appreciate it. Maybe Clem will infarct. …

    Merry xmas, ya’ll.

    ________________________________

    And lo, unto her did appear a host of Corbyn defenders, who did descend upon her mentions, and she was not sore afraid, because she was used to it. And the host did sing with one voice, ‘ungodly woman, thou foolest us not. We know the true reason thou despisest Saint Jeremy.’ 1
    And she did say unto them ‘share thy hot take.’ And with righteous wrath they did declare, ‘thou fearest Saint Jeremy, friend of the poor, because he shall take from thee in taxation much more even than Herod, and so thou attackest the meek and honest saviour of this land.’ 2
    And she did reply, ‘I shall not call ye dimwits, for it is the season of goodwill, but tis not Saint Jeremy who shall tax me, nay, not even if he enters the house of Number Ten, for my tax rates are set by Queen Nicola, in whose kingdom I do abide, and unto her I do pay
    3
    my full portion, seeking neither to flee to Monaco nor to hide my gold in far flung lands, like St Jacob, Patron Saint of Filthy Hypocrites.’ ‘Speak not of hypocrites!’ cried the host, ‘for thou dost claim to care about the poor yet doth rail against their champion, St Jeremy!’ 4
    And she did answer, ‘How shall the poor fare under Brexit, which thy Saint hath always in his secret heart desired, yet he hath not admitted what was in his heart, lest fewer attend his next Sermon on the Glastonbury B Stage.’ And they did answer, ‘Saint Jeremy will achieve
    5
    a miracle, and he shall bring forth a Jobs First Brexit and all the land shall rejoice.’ And she did answer, ‘bollocks.’ But she bethought her of the season of goodwill, and repenting of her ire she did speak further. ‘I have, for all my life, voted Labour, yet now I cannot.’ 6
    ‘But his goodness doth shine out of his every orifice!’ cried the host, swarming anew into her mentions. ‘Behold his beard! Look upon this picture of him being led off by police when he was protesting racism in all its forms!’ And she did say, ‘I have looked upon his beard 7
    …and also upon this picture. It is a good picture and I do like a beard, as I have oft declared. Yet must I protest, thou it breaketh my heart so to do, that this party of Labour, which I have so long loved, has become, under St Jeremy -‘
    8
    ‘Speak not of the Jews!’ cried the host. ‘Why must thou speak so oft of the Jews?’ ‘Yea, I must speak,’ said she, ‘for when Jews no longer feel safe in Labour then I too must leave.’ And one of the host did shout something about the Rothschilds
    9
    and he was hastily hushed by his brethren, who did declare, ‘he is not one of ours, thou he sports a #JC4PM halo.’ And another did speak and he said, ‘it is not antisemitic to criticise Israel,’ and she did put her face in her hands and want to weep. 10
    But she did then look up and see many stars shining brightly in the sky and lo, they did arrange themselves before her eyes into a ‘who would make the best Prime Minister poll’ and she did cry, ‘Will ye not raise up your eyes to the Heavens? See there the People’s mind!’ 11
    And they did look up at the stars and read there that St Jeremy was, as for ages past, in third place after Pontus May and Don’t Know. And she spake further, ‘do ye not see that St Jeremy is hurting your party, yea, that his inability even to organise a vote of no confidence
    12
    doth embolden and strengthen this calamitous government, of which all despair?’ But they did close their eyes to the stars and some did answer, ‘you are a fool who doth not understand St Jeremy’s master plan’
    13
    and others still did beseech the woman to descend from the ivory tower in which, for the purposes of this story, they would wish her to dwell. And they besought her to descend into Bethlehem, and go to a certain allotment,
    14
    where she would find the Messiah busy with his marrows and she would be filled with the spirit of Momentum. But she did shake her head and declare that she was and would remain an unbeliever, yet full sorrowful she was, for Labour had been her home. 15
    And the host did despise and condemn her, and many did tell her to fuck off and join the Tories, and before they did depart one of their number cried unto her, ‘it’s because he’ll tax you more, isn’t it,’ and she did sigh and wished him a Merry Christmas. 16X

  12. yabba

    Here is a link to residential floor plan , sorry don’t know how to post the image

    Yes photos show usual foyer level columns & I assume transfer slab / beam above .
    Sure the site is a nightmare of pits, ponds etc. one would assume no risks taken with foundation piers or piles .

    An engineer I use ( old school) keeps saying cement isn’t what it used to be.. a lot lot more shrinkage, especially if additives used in the mix. This is exacerbated if going for high strength concrete.

  13. frednk @ #1867 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 9:27 pm


    Late Riser says:
    ..
    My philosophy now might be summed as “We haven’t a clue. We never will. So who cares?

    Utube allows you to view lectures from people who do; the universe is just mind bending. It sure beats believing in a vindictive god.

    Sorry. Language is awkward. To clarify, maybe. By “who cares that we never will?” I mean that a final understanding is not the ultimate goal. There is always one more step. The journey is the thing. The universe is mind bending, if we allow it.

  14. Skimming the last dozen pages of this thread I see that young Nicholas was waxing metaphysical this afternoon about the meaning of it all.

    I’m surprised that no one pointed out that the answer is 42.

    It might have helped Nich sleep tonight whilst his name sake fills his Christmas stocking.

    Merry xmas Propellor Cap Boy. I’ve come to appreciate your enthusiasm, mostly.

  15. Yabba /Sceptic
    If you use google to go around the building you can see the columns to at least the 10th floor around the back. On the ground floor you can see a very large beam I assume to cross the lake. Structurally it looks interesting.

  16. Poroti

    Read an article recently that suggested there is a push back starting against the “if we have an equation it must be true” element of Quantum stuff.

    I am not sure what you are talking about “if we have an equation it must be true” as an element of quantum “stuff”.

    The standard approach in physics would be to perform experiments and compare observational data with with the values predicted by an equation. If there is good agreement then the equation, and the underlying theory, are given greater credence.

    It is fair to say that quantum mechanics is such a succesful theory that the equations are often used without reference to the theoretical underpinnings (which are more tha a little counter intuitive). The reason for this is that the equations are highly succesful at predicting the results of experiment.

  17. A happy and safe holiday season to the good ship Pollbludger and all who sail upon her.

    Thank you William for your efforts in keeping her afloat and steering her in the correct direction.

    I was going to say “right direction” but in reality I hope William never goes there!

  18. yabba @ #1866 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 9:14 pm

    Sceptic, Seriously, I am an engineer myself, at least originally.

    This google view shows the pillars supporting the Opal Tower. It does not look like a full concrete structure to me. Maybe you know better.

    https://www.google.com.au/maps/@-33.8495881,151.0737792,3a,75y,40.37h,108.16t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1s-mmmSFp7A3jNX7flcz2_kA!2e0!7i13312!8i6656?hl=en-GB&authuser=0

    This satellite view shows the site before building began.

    https://www.google.com.au/maps/place/Australia+Towers/@-33.8489535,151.0741735,436m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x6b12a4c90a948e6b:0xea4a85668aa30068!8m2!3d-33.8481122!4d151.0734198?hl=en-GB&authuser=0

    The building occupies the space between the word ‘Bikes’ in the bike parking notice, and the curved path you can see south of it. You can see a pond. I played here when I was a teenager, and know the whole area, from well pre-Olympic Park, when the site was the government abattoirs, and the State Brickworks. The pond was there until earlier this year (see image date), in a depression about 30 metres deep,( to the water surface), which depression was an early brick pit. They have filled this large depression to build the Opal tower. The pond was very deep. I have dived down in the middle, and could not reach the bottom.

    Yabba and others,
    As a practicing consulting engineer who has seen the work of Bonacci first hand, I would expect that a very thorough geotechnical investigation was undertaken which would have established the depth of the likely large diameter bored piers (my assumption) that support the building. I would be surprised if that wasn’t the case.
    I don’t doubt that there was a deep hole there that was reclaimed as some stage before the building was constructed.
    Further, I would expect that the circular column structure apparent in the Google street image extends from the ground floor to the top floor perhaps with a reducing column diameter towards the top of the structure as the vertical loads reduce.
    All buildings designed in Australian now need to take into account the ‘Earthquake Loading Code’ AS1170.4 Structural design actions, Part 4: Earthquake actions in Australia, so there must be a significant structural issue if doors could not be / cannot be opened.
    In my experience, under the ultimate state design method used in the Concrete Structures Code, no building is designed with a factor of safety of 3.
    I, for one, would wait until the appropriate structural engineers including representatives from Bonacci inspect the building and determine the cause of the structural distress before jumping to conclusions on, for example, the shrinkage of concrete in 2018 compared to 1970, or any other suspected contributing factor.

  19. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Monday, December 24, 2018 at 10:34 pm
    Apologies if JK Rowling’s epic xmas twitter rant – in 16 parts – has already been posted. If not, I’m sure that Boerwar and Briefly amongst other Bludgers will appreciate it.

    Great, thanks A-E.

  20. Chances are everyone I wa sin discussion with this afternoon are no longer here but I need to refute a few things.

    I was bagged out for calling myself a historian – well historians have different views. But one of the very first things I was taught that a historian goes to primary evidence. Not secondary sources.

    Tacitus, Pliny, Suetonius and Josephus (I have read the first 3 as part of my studies … and Josephus — if you count the bible — though the Bible itself was not a text used at uni in ancient history) the first 3 lived well after the supposed christ’s death, so not primary sources … though I must say I do not recall any of the first 3 mentioning Jesus, but I might be wrong. They may have mentioned christians because the first mention of them historically comes about 70 CE in Rome.

    Josephus died in 100, so was born around the death date of the supposed Christ.

    And as Boerwar said – I said “no archaeological evidence” of Jesus. And no textual evidence is contemporary but well later.

    If someone can point me to primary evidence of his existence, I’m happy to be convinced.

    One issue I see often is that most biblical historians start with the premise that he did exist that arises from faith. I start from the sceptical position that he did not. Therefore I need evidence to be convinced.

  21. jenauthor, if Jesus of Nazareth did not exist, the faithful would have had to invent him. This is the only plausible explanation made for the claims about him. The believers have some inter-related problems. One is the existence of the Hebrew divinity, Yah-Weh, in the first place. The second is the corporeal existence of J-o-N, and the third is the contestible matter of his paternity, and by extension, his divinity. To subscribe to the tales is to subscribe to miracles. This is an absolutely formidable obstacle. Only the clappiest of the happiest are willing to accept that miracles actually occur.

  22. I will have to trawl back to enjoy todays commentary on the existence of Jesus.

    I am in the “The bible is a work of fiction” camp. I’ll let you know if my mind is changed. 🙂

  23. I don’t think that’s the sceptical position, jenauthor, unless by “sceptical” you mean you assume every proposition is false, including this one, until proven otherwise. But I don’t think you’d be able to progress past Decartes with that view — and even that I have reason to doubt. If you want to be neutral, you could start from the position that you have no idea whether or not he existed. Surely this is a more reasonably sceptical position.

    But if you believe he’s not a messiah, I don’t see what advantage it brings to you to doubt his existence. Everything that’s been written about him in early sources is quite compatible with him existing and being an ordinary human being. There were certainly enough people like him around in those days.

  24. Greensborough Growler @ #1866 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 9:13 pm

    a r @ #1864 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 10:09 pm

    Peter Stanton @ #1804 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 6:28 pm

    Engineering is an attempt to use science to predict the future. Works better than faith. Fractals prove there is no hope. Fractals are depressing.

    Fractals are awesome. They show that even (seemingly) random things aren’t.

    My understanding is that there are a whole bunch of infinities, some bigger than others.

    No, there are only two infinities, the ‘big’ one and the ‘small’ one. The big one is infinitely more infinite than the small one.

    Which one provides the better sex?

    Always the big one.

  25. Going back to Carnegie Clean Energy earlier in the thread, they have satisfied all requirements to date with the WA State Government for the development of the wave energy project in Albany WA and some payments have been made.

    They have been adversely affected by (proposed?) changes to the Federal Governments R&D concessions and are required to provide an update to the WA State Government about how this will affect their viability going forward

    Further, their investment in Energy Made Clean (EMC) and the 10MW Northam Solar Farm (WA) turned out to be poor decisions and they have been trying to sell both.

    I can’t see the WA Government walking away from the Albany Wave Farm. It’s politically popular and in a marginal seat. If nothing else, the sunk costs fallacy will kick in and it will take a change of government to kill the project off.

  26. The Jesus debate was not as illuminating as I hoped. The idea that that there was some guy called Jesus wandering around at some time means not much.

    There was probably once a guy called Clark Kent.

  27. Tristo 8.14 : continuing Senators LIB/NAT (14+2) 16; LAB 13; Greens 3; Other 4 – SA CA 2 ( Griff & Patrick ) Cons Bernardi, PHON Hansen.
    Cross bench short term Senators :- QLD Anning (PHON, IND, KAP,IND) : NSW UAP Burston LDP Leyonhelm : SA Storer Ind
    VIC DHJP Hinch : WA PHON Georgio.
    Greens trying to win 1 seat in each state.
    Leaves L/NP and Labor hoping for 12, 2 in each state. Outgoing Senators LNP 13 Labor 11.
    Even if Labor form Govt, unless there is a solid swing to Labor Aust wide away from the crossbench, Labor will not be a chance to get through legislation without prior negotiation. Given the outcome of the House, several on the crossbench – may – support measures campaigned on.

  28. Mr. Ed,

    Take a guess at the composition of the next senate. I mean that seriously as I haven’t given it as much thought as you.

    EDIT: Or Tristo

  29. Infinities – I was never really into pure maths and number theory but it took me a while to get my head around the two infinities –

    Aleph zero – countable (integers, rational numbers etc)

    c – uncountable (real numbers including irrationals)

    I think from memory they called it aleph zero because they thought there may be other ‘infinities’ bigger than it but smaller than c and they were going to be called aleph 1,2,3 etc

  30. Further to previous post, new Senate could be Labor 25, Greens 9 total 34 out ot 72. Allow 1 for speaker. Three short.
    Anning wont be back but will PHON replace him, probably.
    Hinch will battle but seems slightly favoured in Vic.
    SA seem to like other than big 3. If not Storer maybe CA.
    WA last seat up for grabs – maybe Labor.
    NSW the key. At least one will go. Lets give it to Labor but no certainty.
    Best result Labor/ greens extg 13 + 3 new +12 + 6 pickups WA and NSW gives total 36 at best.
    Best result the rest – L/NP 28, CA 2 Bernardi 1, PHON 2, Hinch, Storer or CA, one from NSW total 36.

    Would Hinch like to be Speaker?

  31. briefly as I understand it, unless the Liberals do really badly in the ACT its one each and the same goes for NT.

    So it doesn’t really change the outcome.

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