BludgerTrack: 54.3-45.7 to Labor

BludgerTrack ends a year to remember by showing a slight narrowing in the still-yawning two-party gap.

Ipsos and Essential Research closed their accounts for 2018 this week, and their combined effect has been to reduce Labor’s lead to 54.3-45.7 after a blowout to 54.9-45.1 last week. This is good for one Coalition gain on the seat projection, that being in Queensland. Full results through the link below.

We’re unlikely to see any more poll results until mid-January, although Newspoll should be unloading its quarterly state breakdowns in a week or so, and hopefully a few state voting intention results as well. Nonetheless, things should be pretty active around here over the silly season, as there’s a backlog preselection analysis to attend to, and I should finally get time to attend to my long-promised Morrison-era overhaul of BludgerTrack.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,141 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.3-45.7 to Labor”

  1. From an occasional commenter and a major league lurker I’d like to wish all Poll Bludgers a very safe and merry Xmas and new year and an extra thankyou to Mr Bowe for providing the site and BK for his extraordinary effort in compiling the dawn patrol. Take care everyone and if you can’t be good be careful.

  2. The meaning of life for Nicholas is cut and paste.

    When the surgeons stapled your four stomachs, they must have erred in a way that permitted bile to leach into your brain.

  3. So nuclear:

    It is uneconomic, and needs all the risk to be underwritten by the crown, none of them would have been built otherwise.

    It is uneconomic, you have to assume zero shut down and clean up costs, (ie leave it there for ever), or none of them would ever have been built.

    It is unsafe , you’ve got to move, store and dispose of very sensitive materials.

    It is expensive to construct.

    It is unpopular in countries with that handy little thing called democracy.

    So even if you have zero cleanup costs (because you are just going to lock the gate and tie up the land for a million years), the community is going to self insure against disaster, and you’ve already spent billions building it, yeah sure it does cheap power in the middle.

  4. GG, I already do contribute on a permanent and monthly basis. I think that’s why I haven’t been kicked out of the PB jungle yet. 😉

  5. WeWantPaul @ #1746 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 6:02 pm

    “The reality is that without nuclear power, we will all fry.”

    Bullsh1t. WITH EXISTING TECHNOLOGY and leadership smarter than you, rather than our current leadership who you seem to share a lot of ‘facts’ and common beliefs with, we could do it at a canter, I think is the current expression. Idiots and fools, like you, are all that are holding us back.

    You are so wrong on this it is hard to know where to start 🙁

    So I won’t bother – Merry Christmas 🙂

  6. C@tmomma @ #1753 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 5:19 pm

    Fractals blew my mind and after that I have no clue what ‘infinity’ is or means!

    Yes. My mind too. Fractals are wonderful stuff with infinite self-similar recursive detail. (Again with the blame. I blame Escher!) Geometry is a superb abstraction of the world we see. But can a circle even exist outside a mind?

  7. Player One @ #1758 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 6:23 pm

    WeWantPaul @ #1746 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 6:02 pm

    “The reality is that without nuclear power, we will all fry.”

    Bullsh1t. WITH EXISTING TECHNOLOGY and leadership smarter than you, rather than our current leadership who you seem to share a lot of ‘facts’ and common beliefs with, we could do it at a canter, I think is the current expression. Idiots and fools, like you, are all that are holding us back.

    You are so wrong on this it is hard to know where to start 🙁

    So I won’t bother – Merry Christmas 🙂

    Well, there’s a first!

  8. Greensborough Growler @ #1761 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 6:26 pm

    Player One @ #1758 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 6:23 pm

    WeWantPaul @ #1746 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 6:02 pm

    “The reality is that without nuclear power, we will all fry.”

    Bullsh1t. WITH EXISTING TECHNOLOGY and leadership smarter than you, rather than our current leadership who you seem to share a lot of ‘facts’ and common beliefs with, we could do it at a canter, I think is the current expression. Idiots and fools, like you, are all that are holding us back.

    You are so wrong on this it is hard to know where to start 🙁

    So I won’t bother – Merry Christmas 🙂

    Well, there’s a first!

    Normal programming will resume in the new year! 🙂

  9. Enjoy a good solstice season everyone. Thanks to Mr Bowe for his tolerance and providing this site. Thanks BK for the daily news sheet, you must wade through a lot of crap to find the news worth reporting.

  10. “You are so wrong on this it is hard to know where to start
    So I won’t bother – Merry Christmas ”

    Even with your broad range of fake facts you couldn’t get past first base. I’m right, right now, with batteries, solar, wind and hydro you could power the whole world, including parts of the world currently unpowered. You just have to design and build it. Would be cheaper in some places now, in some places in the short and in other places in the longer term than any of the alternatives but it is clean as well so a small marginal increase in capital investment makes a lot more sense than idiotic things like nuclear and coal.

    There is still a shutting window for cleaner transition fuels like gas. There a still a couple of issues, with jet plane technology and jet fuel, steel and coal, where we don’t have a clean solution but if we cleaned everything else up it is a trivially small problem we can solve over time.

    But none so blind as those that don’t want to see, the fundamentalists of foolishness.

    Have a wonderful Christmas and a cheap clean renewable 2019.

  11. N, I can assure you I do not blog as Late Riser. I’m not brief enough for some, but I only need one tag at a time.

    But thanks for the lesson in etiquette. In future I will direct all inquiries on this vexed area straight to you. Maybe you could sort out the lying trolls that pop up with nauseating regularity.


  12. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, December 24, 2018 at 6:19 pm

    Fractals blew my mind and after that I have no clue what ‘infinity’ is or means!

    Engineering is an attempt to use science to predict the future. Works better than faith. Fractals prove there is no hope. Fractals are depressing.

  13. Player One @ #1762 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 6:27 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1761 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 6:26 pm

    Player One @ #1758 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 6:23 pm

    WeWantPaul @ #1746 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 6:02 pm

    “The reality is that without nuclear power, we will all fry.”

    Bullsh1t. WITH EXISTING TECHNOLOGY and leadership smarter than you, rather than our current leadership who you seem to share a lot of ‘facts’ and common beliefs with, we could do it at a canter, I think is the current expression. Idiots and fools, like you, are all that are holding us back.

    You are so wrong on this it is hard to know where to start 🙁

    So I won’t bother – Merry Christmas 🙂

    Well, there’s a first!

    Normal programming will resume in the new year! 🙂

    No doubt!

    But, as you know, I’ve always been on side with your views on reducing emissions now and using whatever options we have to do that.

    There’s a lot of fluffy thinking on PB from earnest endeavourers desperately pining for renewables to be the magic bullet. But, it’s even worse outside the PB bubble.

    I’m always reminded of the last scene from the WW1 Black Adder series.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vH3-Gt7mgyM

  14. I left wave out, it would be really lovely if wave could work, particularly with a dual desal / power functionality, but it is always going to have the highest wear and tear / cost. As we get better and better at wind and solar, we are going to be less and less tolerant of costs, and movement has cost so solar > wind > waves all other things being equal.

  15. Nicholas says:
    Monday, December 24, 2018 at 5:37 pm
    Briefly’s epistemological error is to assume away a whole lot of important dimensions of life that people know to be true but that cannot be scientifically verified and measured.

    He focuses only on the materialist field of knowledge – the properties that can be apprehended by the intellect and the senses.

    I don’t think I’ve “assumed away” anything. What I’ve said is that the cosmos (and everything in it) is knowable. The deists would have it the other way – that certain things must be unknowable.

    Theirs is an obsolete theory of knowledge. For their thesis to hold, the cosmos would be quite different from the one we have been able to describe, understand and explain.

    In fact, in a deistic cosmos, reason and unreason would be conflated. Perhaps neither category would exist.

  16. Late Riser @ #1760 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 2:26 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1753 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 5:19 pm

    Fractals blew my mind and after that I have no clue what ‘infinity’ is or means!

    Yes. My mind too. Fractals are wonderful stuff with infinite self-similar recursive detail. (Again with the blame. I blame Escher!) Geometry is a superb abstraction of the world we see. But can a circle even exist outside a mind?

    Can we truly represent a line or a point? 🙂

  17. WWP, you are correct at the tremendous cost of decommissioning nuclear reactors.

    The British National Decommissioning Authority has an ANNUAL budget of 3.5billion pounds.

    The cradle to grave cost of nuclear electricity is not cheap!

  18. Greensborough Growler @ #1769 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 6:36 pm

    There’s a lot of fluffy thinking on PB from earnest endeavourers desperately pining for renewables to be the magic bullet. But, it’s even worse outside the PB bubble.

    Yes, I know. PB is actually quite rational compared to the kind of “magical thinking” that goes on in the wider world – the kind of thinking that is going to get millions killed unnecessarily 🙁

  19. “I guess you also believe in Father Christmas? Be a good child, say your prayers and go to bed early, or he won’t come down your chimney! ”

    I prefer facts. Have a Christmas read / listen over at renew energy. enjoy

  20. “We are supposed to get wave technology in Albany, however it seems to have hit some rocky road of late.”

    Was that a Carnegie project? They kinda ran into a brick wall recently from memory.

  21. frednk, I love engineers. They know when something is fit for purpose. They understand precision is not accuracy. In their guts they know a circle is a fiction and fractals are nightmares. There’s some breathtaking engineering on our planet. I could go on, but dinner calls.

  22. PeeBee @ #1776 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 6:45 pm

    WWP, you are correct at the tremendous cost of decommissioning nuclear reactors.

    The British National Decommissioning Authority has an ANNUAL budget of 3.5billion pounds.

    The cradle to grave cost of nuclear electricity is not cheap!

    This is simply not true.

    But Merry Christmas to you as well. I hope Santa Claus brings you everything you asked for.

  23. WWP:

    Yep, Carnegie. MacTiernan still insists (last time I read in the local paper) that the project will go ahead, but she’s faced some uncomfortable questions in the parliament about it.

  24. Barney in Go Dau @ #1774 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 5:43 pm

    Late Riser @ #1760 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 2:26 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1753 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 5:19 pm

    Fractals blew my mind and after that I have no clue what ‘infinity’ is or means!

    Yes. My mind too. Fractals are wonderful stuff with infinite self-similar recursive detail. (Again with the blame. I blame Escher!) Geometry is a superb abstraction of the world we see. But can a circle even exist outside a mind?

    Can we truly represent a line or a point? 🙂

    Nope, but as the engineer said, you only need to get close.

  25. “Yep, Carnegie. MacTiernan still insists (last time I read in the local paper) that the project will go ahead, but she’s faced some uncomfortable questions in the parliament about it.”

    Good luck to the project, I wouldn’t be betting a lot on it.

  26. Been to a lot of talks on the future of energy in Australia. There is no talk about coal or Nuclear; it is renewables all they way down.

    As one speaker put it, if your into renewables and stressed out getting projects finished, sorry this is as good as it is going to get we are at the start of a curve that has gone crazy in the USA and Europe.

    Electrical cars are the worry, how quickly the load comes on is the issue. People leaving the network is also discussed but not worried about as it is assumed electric cars will more than take up the load.


  27. Player One says:
    Monday, December 24, 2018 at 6:50 pm

    PeeBee @ #1776 Monday, December 24th, 2018 – 6:45 pm

    The cradle to grave cost of nuclear electricity is not cheap!

    This is simply not true.

    Oh yes it is.

  28. Merry Christmas, Seasons Greetings, Happy Holidays to all PBers……whichever is the preferred wish of the season to each and everyone, or all three together if you so wish!

    Am currently in Germany spending some time with certain members of my family. It is snowing outside, so I will be. having a white Christmas with all the traditional northern hemisphere touches.

    Greetings, one and all!!
    ❄️⭐️

  29. https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/12/21/bludgertrack-54-3-45-7-labor-2/comment-page-32/#comment-3034420

    Personally, I am not really that interested in whether a pollyTIC is from the left or right.
    At election time I tend to look at trust and credibility/ policies, and which side is likely to do the least amount of damage in the executive and the house (and cross vote for senate). [When the Rodent HoWARd had the executive, house and senate some things seemed to just amplify the money/ pollyTICs/ media spin cycle, and not advance Australia, fair.]
    Same for state and local gov.
    The more coalitions across multiple parties, the more negotiating, and leaking …

    Though I do note some kinda pattern:
    – During the Great Recession/ GWOT (Juliar/ KRudd7x7),
    Recession we had to have/ Gulf War 1/ Asian Currency Crisis (Keating/ Hawke),
    – [and yes, I do remember there being various other Cold War ones, such as Vietnam, Korea, …],
    – WW2/ Great [Depression] (in with Curtin out with Menzies) …
    – I’ll leave the not so great war or Boer War for another time,
    [pollyTICal accountability and responsibility] seem to have been passed to the left of centre, and subsequent recovery to the right of centre of Australian politics.”

    Pretty smart risk and opportunity management by voters …

    Best wishes for the holiday and the new year!

  30. “Been to a lot of talks on the future of energy in Australia. There is no talk about coal or Nuclear; it is renewables all they way down.
    As one speaker put it, if your into renewables and stressed out getting projects finished, sorry this is as good as it is going to get we are at the start of a curve that has gone crazy in the USA and Europe.
    Electrical cars are the worry, how quickly the load comes on is the issue. People leaving the network is also discussed but not worried about as it is assumed electric cars will more than take up the load.”

    Yeah I went to an EY one, you know that rusted on leftys at EY (formerly Ernst & Young, one of the remaining big 4 global audit / tax firms, with KPMG, PwC and Detoilette).

    Renewables and eV’s are taking over it is just a question of when, and whether you would need to invest a little more to get there now.

    The only real issues they considered where the local markets and the point of time where renewables or eV crossed over the current technology on a pure cost basis, eg full cost of renewable less than full cost of current power, one was where the full cost of renewables became less than the network distribution charge and that was in the fairly short term.

    They put up median projections but then said all around the world their ‘aggressive’ projection was the one that was playing out in reality. So we are looking at a fairly short forward window.

    Even this useless LNP muppet government we have, admitted that renewables already beat everything, except coal plants that are already fully depreciated (and some of them seem fairly expensive to maintain and keep working, which I bet wasn’t modelled in).

    So yeah you might spend some additional money if you invest heavily before the cross-over, but for a chance at the world not destroying our children, I’d say go now go hard, tax me more if you need to.

  31. Also the EY forum, didn’t really get across hydrogen, which I think makes them a little behind the ball on that front, it is happening now. There is a pilot in Sydney to put up to 10% clean generated hydrogen into a domgas network, thereby displacing domgas with clean energy.

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