Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

No Christmas cheer for the Coalition from the final Newspoll for 2018.

The Australian reports Newspoll has closed its 2018 account with another crushing 55-45 lead for Labor, from primary votes of Coalition 35% (up one), Labor 41% (up one), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 7% (down one). Scott Morrison edges to net negative territory on his personal ratings, being down one on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 45%. Bill Shorten is respectively down one to 36% and up one to 51%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 44-36, narrowing from 46-34. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1731.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,921 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

  1. lizzie:

    I don’t think this is “new news”, but I want to draw attention to the incorrect use of the verb “affect” in the first para. Usually “effect” is scattered everywhere, but this time, inappropriately, affect got a guernsey.

    Back in the early 2000s, I tried to convince an educational psychologist that she had used ‘effect’ incorrectly in a student’s assessment report… but she wouldn’t listen to me. Even highly ‘educated’ people, who should know better, struggle with this.

  2. Greensborough Growler @ #2742 Thursday, December 13th, 2018 – 6:33 pm

    Damn it, I’ll be the one to break the curfew of tyranny surrounding this information that cannot be spoken about! keith richards has given up the grog.

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    Can’t trust your icons these days:


    Neil McCormick

    March 3 2018 7:00 AM

    Keith Richards hasn’t had a drink since Christmas. The legendary hard-living rock ‘n’ roll icon sounds almost reluctant to admit to sobriety. “I’m not saying I’m definitely off all of this stuff,” he protests. “In six months’ time, I might be on it again. But at the moment, for a couple of months, I haven’t touched it.” When I ask how he is finding abstinence, he chuckles ruefully. “It’s novel.”

    The 74-year-old Rolling Stone still smokes incessantly and speaks as if his vocal cords are coated in thick layers of fur, but he insists that cigarettes and coffee are the only real vices he has left. He is impressively disdainful of the prescription drugs rife among a younger generation, such as Xanax and Percocet. “Drugs are not interesting these days. They are very institutionalised and bland. And anyway, I’ve done ’em all.”

    Just remember that for every cigarette you smoke God takes an hour away form your life and gives it to Keith Richards.

    We need to control global warming. Think of the world you are leaving for your grandchildren and Keith Richards.

  3. Sceptic @ #2773 Thursday, December 13th, 2018 – 6:04 pm

    Late Riser
    Maybe Morrison can ensure trials resulting from his Integrity Commission are held in Victoria.

    I will assume sarcasm. But if disagreeable law is flouted at the cost of overturning a conviction one should be prepared for any resulting opprobrium.

    The problem should be confined to jury selection & impanelment.

    That sounds reasonable.

  4. Steve777 @ #2769 Thursday, December 13th, 2018 – 7:10 pm

    “Damn it, I’ll be the one to break the curfew of tyranny surrounding this information that cannot be spoken about! keith richards has given up the grog.”

    Not doing badly for 74. I wonder if he’s got a portrait locked away in an attic somewhere.

    Nah, he’s just ultra wealthy. He can access the best medical treatment to prolong his life. In order to banish heroin from his system he had a complete blood transfusion. Has he had a Liver Transplant? We don’t know but it’s not beyond the realms of possibility.

  5. The i before e except after c rule:

    https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Category:English_words_not_following_the_I_before_E_except_after_C_rule
    Wikipedia lists 6,102 altogether.

    A relative of mine is called Keith, there’s another.

    Here are some from those words beginning with a.

    aatheist
    Abbe-Zeiss apparatus
    Abbileigh
    abeigh
    Abeita
    abetalipoproteinaemia
    abetalipoproteinemia
    ableism
    ableist
    abortifacient
    abreid
    abseil
    abseiler
    abseiling
    absence seizure
    absenteeism
    absenteeist
    absolute weight
    absorbefacient
    absorbifacient
    absorption coefficient
    Academy of Sciences
    acclimatisation society
    acephalocheiria
    acetylcysteine
    acetyldihydrocodeine
    acheilia
    acheilous
    acheiria
    acheiropody
    acheiropoieton
    acheirous
    achilleic acid
    acidoglycoprotein
    acierage
    acierate
    acieration
    acies
    acleistocardia
    acleithral
    acmaeid
    Acmeism
    acmeist
    Acmeist
    acneiform
    acquired immune deficiency syndrome
    acquired immunodeficiency syndrome
    acroleic
    acrolein
    acroleinated
    actuarial science
    aculeiform
    Adaleigh
    adenosylhomocysteinase
    adenosylhomocysteine
    Adjei
    Admiral’s eighth
    Adygei
    Adygeic
    Aeneid
    Æneid
    affreight
    affreighter
    affreightment
    agamospecies
    agapeic
    agapeism
    agapeist
    agapeistic
    ageing
    ageism
    ageist
    ageistic
    ageistically
    ageistly
    ageneiosid
    aggregate species
    agnoprotein
    Agnus Dei
    agreeing
    agreeingly
    agreeingness
    agriscience

  6. don @ #2811 Thursday, December 13th, 2018 – 8:20 pm

    The i before e except after c rule:

    https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Category:English_words_not_following_the_I_before_E_except_after_C_rule
    Wikipedia lists 6,102 altogether.

    A relative of mine is called Keith, there’s another.

    Here are some from those words beginning with a.

    aatheist
    Abbe-Zeiss apparatus
    Abbileigh
    abeigh
    Abeita
    abetalipoproteinaemia
    abetalipoproteinemia
    ableism
    ableist
    abortifacient
    abreid
    abseil
    abseiler
    abseiling
    absence seizure
    absenteeism
    absenteeist
    absolute weight
    absorbefacient
    absorbifacient
    absorption coefficient
    Academy of Sciences
    acclimatisation society
    acephalocheiria
    acetylcysteine
    acetyldihydrocodeine
    acheilia
    acheilous
    acheiria
    acheiropody
    acheiropoieton
    acheirous
    achilleic acid
    acidoglycoprotein
    acierage
    acierate
    acieration
    acies
    acleistocardia
    acleithral
    acmaeid
    Acmeism
    acmeist
    Acmeist
    acneiform
    acquired immune deficiency syndrome
    acquired immunodeficiency syndrome
    acroleic
    acrolein
    acroleinated
    actuarial science
    aculeiform
    Adaleigh
    adenosylhomocysteinase
    adenosylhomocysteine
    Adjei
    Admiral’s eighth
    Adygei
    Adygeic
    Aeneid
    Æneid
    affreight
    affreighter
    affreightment
    agamospecies
    agapeic
    agapeism
    agapeist
    agapeistic
    ageing
    ageism
    ageist
    ageistic
    ageistically
    ageistly
    ageneiosid
    aggregate species
    agnoprotein
    Agnus Dei
    agreeing
    agreeingly
    agreeingness
    agriscience

    Received and receipted!

  7. Reluctant as I am to post anything from mysoginist Michael Smith’s web site, this time it is worth it.

    Here is the transcript of today’s Victorian court hearing before Chief Judge Kidd, with the Public Prosecutor and counsel for the accused. In the course of the discussion, the Chief Judge says he expects this transcript to be made public.

    So what does it say? Well contempt of court by The Herald Sun and other Murdoch organs is the main point – but other germane matters are canvassed, including a pending appeal.

    If I was a gung ho Murdoch editor, I’d be worried, very worried.

    https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2018/12/chief-judge-of-vic-county-court-releases-transcript-of-todays-hearing-on-media-reporting.html

  8. Actually, one 74 year old who has had a liver transplant is Derryn Hinch, in earlier years not necessarily a role model for sobriety. Maybe he’s got a portrait in a locked attic.

    But I have a lot of time for Derryn Hinch. He says some stuff I agree with, some stuff I don’t but he’s his win man and judges issues before him on their merits.

  9. Barney in Go Dau @ #2798 Thursday, December 13th, 2018 – 7:03 pm

    Apologies to who ever posted this a few days ago.

    This is a wonderful graphic giving an indication of the sources of our power.

    It’s not just for Australia, you can scan in and out viewing a number of countries around the globe.

    https://www.electricitymap.org/?page=country&solar=false&remote=true&wind=false&countryCode=AUS-VIC

    I guess I missed it earlier. Thanks for reposting. (And a thank you to the original poster.)

  10. sprocket_ @ #2813 Thursday, December 13th, 2018 – 8:28 pm

    Reluctant as I am to post anything from mysoginist Michael Smith’s web site, this time it is worth it.

    Here is the transcript of today’s Victorian court hearing before Chief Judge Kidd, with the Public Prosecutor and counsel for the accused. In the course of the discussion, the Chief Judge says he expects this transcript to be made public.

    So what does it say? Well contempt of court by The Herald Sun and other Murdoch organs is the main point – but other germane matters are canvassed, including a pending appeal.

    If I was a gung ho Murdoch editor, I’d be worried, very worried.

    https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2018/12/chief-judge-of-vic-county-court-releases-transcript-of-todays-hearing-on-media-reporting.html

    A few Murdoch editors shouldn’t forget their toothbrush tomorrow!

  11. Greensborough Growler:

    No, they won’t need a toothbrush. The jeannie’s out about he who can’t be named. No suppression order will turn the tide.

  12. Greensborough Growler @ #2819 Thursday, December 13th, 2018 – 8:40 pm

    sprocket_ @ #2813 Thursday, December 13th, 2018 – 8:28 pm

    Reluctant as I am to post anything from mysoginist Michael Smith’s web site, this time it is worth it.

    Here is the transcript of today’s Victorian court hearing before Chief Judge Kidd, with the Public Prosecutor and counsel for the accused. In the course of the discussion, the Chief Judge says he expects this transcript to be made public.

    So what does it say? Well contempt of court by The Herald Sun and other Murdoch organs is the main point – but other germane matters are canvassed, including a pending appeal.

    If I was a gung ho Murdoch editor, I’d be worried, very worried.

    https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2018/12/chief-judge-of-vic-county-court-releases-transcript-of-todays-hearing-on-media-reporting.html

    A few Murdoch editors shouldn’t forget their toothbrush tomorrow!

    Ouch!

    William was very astute to get onto that problem so promptly, deleting anything that was in any way contrary to the suppression order.

    Things might get difficult for some publishers of MSM very soon, looking at that transcript.

  13. Player One:

    [‘And everything you have said is an indictment of your ignorance of the judicial system.’]

    Please stop overstating your hand.

  14. There are some very steep hills for the Vic libs to climb in the next state election.
    “From The safest Liberal seat is now the West Gippsland electorate of Narracan (7.26 per cent). Labor has forty-one seats safer than that.”
    From Inside story linked earlier.

  15. Ten companies pay 45% of all corporate tax in Australia
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/dec/13/ten-companies-pay-45-per-cent-of-all-corporate-tax-in-australia

    “But the Greens have pointed out at least eight of the largest companies paid more money in donations to the Labor and Liberal and National parties in 2016-17 than they paid in corporate tax that year.

    Chevron paid $82,228 in political donations in 2016-17, Origin Energy $103,574, Woodside Petroleum $279,000, Whitehaven Coal $30,000, and Santos $102,516, but none of them paid corporate tax that year.

    “Political donors paying zero tax justifiably erodes public confidence in our democracy,” Greens senator Larissa Waters said.”

  16. don

    It is not the fact the name becomes known it is how that information is treated. Most especially by the MSM. Some people will look it up but there will be no hubbub. No Telegrapp/2GB/ACA lolapaloozas.

  17. Greensborough Growler @ #2827 Thursday, December 13th, 2018 – 8:55 pm

    Mavis Smith @ #2822 Thursday, December 13th, 2018 – 8:50 pm

    Greensborough Growler:

    No, they won’t need a toothbrush. The jeannie’s out about he who can’t be named. No suppression order will turn the tide.

    Which will only lengthen the prison term for the people committing the contempt.

    That judge is mighty pissed and someone is going to pay!

    Indeed. Some of the commentators here should read the transcript of the judge’s comments today about the undermining of the suppression order – “incendiary” would be an understatement.

  18. Ben Raue on a likely split in the NSW Greens.

    Faehrmann and Field are both long-term MLCs, next up for election in 2023. If they leave, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Buckingham and Walker to follow, with Buckingham and/or Walker possibly running an independent ticket for the upper house at March’s state election.

    To run an independent group for the Legislative Council with a box above the line, you need 15 candidates, each of which needs 25 nominators – so that’s 375 total. But you would not have any kind of party name above the line in that case. It’s far too late to register a new party under NSW electoral law.

    I don’t see Buckingham being particularly successful if he were to run, but it could cause serious damage to the party’s campaign. If these four were to all leave the party, only David Shoebridge would remain as an MP in the upper house. While I don’t think any of these MPs have a particularly high profile as an individual, having four sitting MPs leaving and loudly criticising the party in an election campaign will likely hurt.

    http://www.tallyroom.com.au/36498

    Plus the members who would leave with them. In short: messy and extremely unhelpful in an election year.

  19. Hi all
    The Integrity Commission is a fine idea.

    There are the Red Shirts of Victorian Labor, illegal goings on that never were addressed.
    There are the suppression orders of trials without the pubic knowing who, why, but people being sent to jail in secrecy. Similar to Russia?
    There are the WA Labor Chinese matters where things are not disclosed regarding links to the Communist Party.

    There is LNP stuff too – spouses working in offices as assistants. Donations from Ms Reinhardt to influence policy. Branching stacking by NSW Liberals.

    all stuff that can be sorted.

  20. GG
    “That judge is mighty pissed and someone is going to pay!”
    That judge will take a Bex & have a good lie down.
    The wave has passed he just hasn’t noticed.

  21. Judges don’t like being ignored or sneered at by politicians and journalists and shock jocks and the like.

    As somebody with a passing interest in how the media has pushed the line with contempt of court and the rules of sub judice over the last few decades I will be keenly watching how this pans out.

    Blaming google, Facebook , wikipaedia, the Internet, Uncle Tom Cobley etc might not keep a few people out of jail.

    Remember the three Tory ministers who rocked up in court in Victoria all puffed up … the next day after somebody had probably had a word with them the apologies were abject.

    We might find faults in our judicial system but it’s way better than some of the alternatives.

  22. Matt:

    Faehrmann has threatened to do so if the motion against Buckingham isn’t overturned and fresh preselection ballot held. Raue isn’t just reporting on supposition; he has received an email from Justin Field to that effect.

  23. Presumably Judge Kidd will tell the media tomorrow in open court about his pre-judgement on matters of breaching of the suppression order and contempt said in a closed court today

  24. GG
    Judges like all sections of society have the right to be wrong.. as the court of appeal has found.

    This from the Age June 2018…

    Picture this. It’s the halfway point of a trial into allegations of sexual abuse against a well-known Australian identity.

    A prominent journalist with close links to the case is ordered by the judge to give up key sources so the court can test their credibility.

    The journalist refuses – as their code of ethics suggests they should – and ends up being sentenced to jail for contempt of court.

    But thanks to powerful and stifling suppression orders issued in the case, the public won’t learn about this for months – at least until the trial has run its full course.

    A well-known reporter suddenly vanishes from the spotlight, and nobody is allowed to say why.

    Welcome to the Kafkaesque world of suppression orders in Victoria, where the rules can be so prohibitive that a scenario such as this is entirely possible and could happen in a case currently before the courts.

  25. For all his incandescent rage Judgey forgot to suppress the names of the parties when he permitted the transcript of today’s judicial tantrum to be published.

    Own goal. Much?

  26. So Judge Kidd to make his suppression order stick will tell the world to shut down the internet, tell news organisations the world over they must listen to him… fat chance .
    The Police State it seems is still alive & well in Victoria.

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