Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

No Christmas cheer for the Coalition from the final Newspoll for 2018.

The Australian reports Newspoll has closed its 2018 account with another crushing 55-45 lead for Labor, from primary votes of Coalition 35% (up one), Labor 41% (up one), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 7% (down one). Scott Morrison edges to net negative territory on his personal ratings, being down one on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 45%. Bill Shorten is respectively down one to 36% and up one to 51%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 44-36, narrowing from 46-34. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1731.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,921 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

  1. Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s decision to take a proposal for a religious discrimination act to the next election is quietly dividing his colleagues, with some fearing it could further alienate small “l” liberal voters who are fatigued by this debate.

    There is despair from some MPs who say with the federal election so close and the Government so on the nose with voters, the last thing they need is a polarising and divisive debate about religious freedom.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-13/playing-political-football-with-religion/10616086

  2. I wonder whether ScoMo’s “Religious Freedom” will extend to religions that do not recognize Christ as the Messiah being able to object to the forced participation of their kids in Christmas religious activities at their school.

    Ha! Reminds me of Jon Stewarts digs at Fox’s War on Christmas efforts year on year.

    Oh! And lets not forget some Christians do not celebrate Christmas.

  3. I think the idea is to raid the conservative Muslim voters of the band of Western Sydney Labor electorates that voted No in the SSM survey. A sort of behind the lines attack.

    The trick will be to avoid letting Morrison (and a drama-obsessed media) frame the election in religious terms.

    Wouldn’t have thought that would be too hard given Australia’s notoriously secular electorate and the antipathy between Liberals and Muslims on just about any other subject, but chiefly on religion.

  4. Good judgement Tony:
    Tony Abbott has revealed controversial plans to offer a knighthood to embattled Cardinal George Pell should he win power again over Malcolm Turnbull.

  5. The attempt to weaponise the religious freedom report as some electoral advantage by ScoFauxMo demonstrates his disconnect with Australian voters.

    Nobody cares.

  6. Given that by now anyone in Australia who knows anyone who has access to the internet knows the identity of the prominent Australian who was convicted in Victoria on charges relating to child sexual abuse, can we now say this suppression order on reporting is not aimed at somehow magically preserving 12 Victorian citizens who don’t know who he is, but instead is aimed at stifling adverse comment upon that guilty individual and the institution which not only shielded him for so long but elevated him?

  7. “The attempt to weaponise the religious freedom report as some electoral advantage by ScoFauxMo demonstrates his disconnect with Australian voters.

    Nobody cares.”

    Yup, wont shift one vote that they were not already going to get in their direction. But, could shift a few the other way.

    On actual issues…this seems to be ScoMo’s true superpower. 🙂

  8. After the Victorian election wringer that Scott Morrison just put the Islamic community through in order to scam a few votes, I don’t think they will be entirely predisposed to voting for him because of his Religious Freedom BIll. They know whose ‘Religious Freedom’ it seeks to protect. And it’s not theirs.

  9. Michael A

    Apparently this is at the request of the prosecution. Given there is another trial, it is best to avoid risking the media frenzy being such that it opens up claims of being unable to get a fair trial.

  10. Tony Abbott was most solicitous for his friend Cardinal George Pell only last year:

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/tony-abbott-praises-fine-man-cardinal-george-pell-20170629-gx17uk.html

    Though he hedges his praise most cleverly, only offering it to “the Cardinal Pell I have known”.

    I know of a certain mid-20th century Central European dictator who loved his mistress and his pet dog, who I am sure would have vouched for his character in terms similar to Abbott’s for Pell. Didn’t stop said dictator from trying out his suicide capsules on said dog first, just to make sure they worked. Don’t know what made me think of that.

  11. ‘poroti says:
    Thursday, December 13, 2018 at 6:11 pm

    Michael A

    Apparently this is at the request of the prosecution.’

    My understanding is that both prosecution and defence requested it.

  12. who don’t know who he is, but instead is aimed at stifling adverse comment

    There are other issues beyond simply the identity of the accused. Having the specific conviction details, and salacious headlines covering evidence provided during the completed trial could ‘contaminate’ subsequent deliberations.

    They’re being careful about how these trials are held given the stakes/prominence of the figures/institutions involved, and that caution is a good thing; why we need to know all the details this very instant rather than letting it all play out … everyone is so impatient these days.

  13. Peter van Onselen
    @vanOnselenP
    4m4 minutes ago

    Government keen to ensure their federal corruption watchdog doesn’t perform show trials when investigating politicians….but they are happy for show trials for unions, bankers, aged care providers. Basically anyone but themselves. My story for Ten News here: #auspol

  14. Michael
    Quite a few dictators were very good to work with as long as you toed the party line.
    On the other hand, some great people were total arseholes on a personal level, such as Gandhi.

  15. frednk,

    For me the beauty of English (the language) is its absurdity. I’ve heard it described as the cancer of languages, voraciously absorbing and mutating. We can enjoy the ride even as the dust gets in our eyes. The subtle difference between “to affect” and “to effect” is one thing, but we also have affection and affectation. Wonderful. Diversity is strength. Complexity rules. But effect is not affect. 🙂

  16. poroti says:
    Thursday, December 13, 2018 at 6:11 pm
    Michael A

    Apparently this is at the request of the prosecution. Given there is another trial, it is best to avoid risking the media frenzy being such that it opens up claims of being unable to get a fair trial.
    ————————————-

    Yes, that’s what I’ve heard, too. Though not officially, of course. This is just unsubstantiated scuttlebutt, to be piously ignored by all right-thinking, God-fearing Australians. 😉

    My serious question, though, goes to the thinking behind the tactic. Is it in the hope of finding 12 jurors who actually don’t know of this person’s conviction for child sexual abuse offences? Or is it in the hope of simply minimising the adverse associations in the 12 jurors’ minds which would have resulted from blanket hostile media coverage of this individual and the institution which nurtured and elevated him for so long, both during and after his abusive crimes?

  17. Rex & BW, I get your point, which is why I am playing nice and not using names which might incriminate the already convicted. But I have strong beliefs about the egregiousness of the teachings and practices of certain longstanding institutions, and find myself chafing at the bit to let fly with them. Still, you are of course both right, for the sake of future prosecutions, so I’ll try to get a tighter grip on my horses.

  18. Michael A
    Good on you.
    I have just about bitten my tongue off… as in biting my tongue…
    I have some personal skin in this game.
    Waiting… waiting… waiting…

  19. Late Riser
    Twenty years ago I would have said your full of it. I can now see what you mean; one of it’s wonders however is the large errors that can be made and communication still occurs. And yes affect is not effect. A before e, affect before effect works most times; well it works more times than i before e except after c.

  20. If the person whose name was suppressed was found not guilty, would there still have been a suppression order? The publicity of a not guilty verdict would have made it harder for the prosecution in the next trial.

  21. “Deferred gratification”…now BW that DOES remind me of my days in Catholicism. Pity the collar wearing clerics didn’t practice it.

  22. Dio
    The issue may be that the charges may be being heard separately and that they are not all the way through all the charges.
    I am guessing.
    I assume that if they finalize the last one there might be a lifting of the order but I really don’t know if the suppression order would stay pending any appeals, by either side.

  23. BW, actually, I do think “justice delayed is justice denied”, and the thought this person gets another Christmas with his name shielded from full public condemnation galls me. He has had so many fat, jolly, comfortable Christmasses being deferred to by lackeys already.

    But I do agree it is vastly more important nothing jeopardise his trial on the next matter. So, I wait patiently for our system to achieve justice for his victims. As long as he and his institution are aware that revenge delayed is revenge multiplied.

  24. Damn it, I’ll be the one to break the curfew of tyranny surrounding this information that cannot be spoken about! keith richards has given up the grog.

  25. BW
    The trials are definitely consecutive. This one is over and there’s another evidently in March. Neither side wanted a single trial on both sets of charges.

  26. #weatheronPB: About half of NSW, including Sydney, is under warning for “destructive winds, giant hailstones and heavy rainfall”.

    Predictive weather radar shows storm sliding south of Sydney.. showers at the most Newcastle nothing.

  27. frednk @ #2736 Thursday, December 13th, 2018 – 6:27 pm

    Late Riser
    Twenty years ago I would have said your full of it. I can now see what you mean; one of it’s wonders however is the large errors that can be made and communication still occurs. And yes affect is not effect. A before e, affect before effect works most times; well it works more times than i before e except after c.

    Only three errors in that particular effort.

  28. ‘Archbishop Francis Fiddleburger (ret’d) says:
    Thursday, December 13, 2018 at 6:30 pm

    “Deferred gratification”…now BW that DOES remind me of my days in Catholicism. Pity the collar wearing clerics didn’t practice it.’

    haha. Thought that would flush a quail!

    I assume you are referring to tantric sex which is founded upon the practical physical effects of deferral?
    But perhaps not.
    Perhaps you are thinking of what happened to economies when we used to have middle classes in the West?

  29. ‘Diogenes says:
    Thursday, December 13, 2018 at 6:35 pm

    BW
    The trials are definitely consecutive. This one is over and there’s another evidently in March. Neither side wanted a single trial on both sets of charges.’

    In that case, IMO, the suppression will not be lifted for quite a long time to come – perhaps towards the middle of next year.

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