ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor in New South Wales; YouGov Galaxy: 52-48

An encouraging first poll for Labor’s new leader, as the burden of federal politics weighs upon the Berejiklian government four months out from the election.

The first New South Wales state poll in a surprisingly long time (considering the imminence of the election in March) is a uComms/ReachTEL poll for the Sydney Morning Herald, which credits Labor with a lead of 51-49. After excluding the 3.1% undecided (there may have been orced-response follow-up results for these, but the Herald report doesn’t relate them), the primary votes are Coalition 37.7%, Labor 35.2%, Greens 9.9% and One Nation 7.7%.

The poll also has new Labor leader Michael Daley leading Gladys Berejiklian 54.2-45.8 on preferred premier, which is not bad for a newcomer non-incumbent, even allowing for the peculiarities that ReachTEL’s forced response preferred leader questions tend to produce. After a week of election-decided-on-state-issues malarkey from politicians with an interest in such matters, the poll finds 50.2% of respondents saying federal politics would indeed play a role in their decision, with only 36.4% saying it wouldn’t.

The poll was conducted Thursday night from a sample of 1557. Come back later today and you might find an updated state poll trend chart attached to this post.

UPDATE: And now a YouGov Galaxy poll from the Daily Telegraph, this one of 903 voters conducted Thursday and Friday, showing Labor leading 52-48. The primary votes are Coalition 37%, Labor 39%, Greens 9% and One Nation 8%, with Gladys Berejiklian holding an unconvincing 33-31 lead over Michael Daley as preferred premier. As per ReachTEL, they asked about the influence of federal factors, but specified “the Coalition’s federal performance”. This had 33% saying they had become less likely to vote for the Coalition, against 35% for no influence and 20% for more likely.

And now for that poll trend, the current reading of which is 51.3-48.7 to Labor, from primary votes of Coalition 37.2%, Labor 35.9% and Greens 10.0%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

104 comments on “ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor in New South Wales; YouGov Galaxy: 52-48”

  1. And like Sydney buses, all coming together. a second encouraging poll today…..

    NSW YouGov Galaxy poll in the Daily ToiletPaper today

    Primaries
    LNP 37
    ALP 39
    GRN 9
    PHON 8
    Other 7
    Uncommitted 5

    2PP

    ALP 52
    LNP 48

    The poll shows 33 per cent of voters say the performance of the Coalition in federal parliament makes them less likely to vote for the state government. Just 20 per cent of NSW voters say the federal performance makes them more likely to vote for the state government.

    The parties are almost neck and neck when asked who offers a more stable government — 38 per cent say Ms Berejiklian and the Coalition, 37 per cent say Mr Daley and Labor.

    http://outline.com/Er9qCv

  2. Encouraging for Daley in his first weeks as opposition leader but the reality is the cancer that is infesting the federal coalition is permeating its way through all levels. Still he seems to be cutting through far more than Foley was able to.
    That NSW goes to the polls before the federal election will not help Gladys cause at all.

  3. Nice numbers! Hancock, and especially Ward, have been very shrill lately down here on the South coast. I am expecting Gareth to ratch it up to 11 soon.

  4. Luke Foley was a drag on the ALP vote.
    I don’t know a lot about Daley but I still have my doubts about NSW ALP. I will preference them ahead of the coalition but I’m not sure who I will vote for.
    I’ve seen nothing from the NSW ALP to be confident of voting first for them. If the debacle that is the LNP in Canberra was not occuring my gut feeling is the Libs would be ahead here.

  5. Jeez, Gladys trails someone the electorate doesn’t even know. This is ba-a-a-d. I would not be surprised if the Foley fiasco hurt the libs more than labor. Most people just DID NOT want to know about it. Yet the libs dragged it out in parliament.

  6. Commuters walk out of the second busiest train station in the state (Wynyard) onto George Street and find out that the whole road has been ripped up and they are funneled for 100 metres along the pavement before they can go anywhere. Gladys doesn’t have a hope in hell.

  7. Just back in Sydney for work…..Eastern Suburbs ripped apart for the tram (end no where in sight), streets around where I am staying ripped apart for major sewer works (mainly done between 1-5AM to minimise traffic disruption), city ripped apart for tram and Metro works (for years), new apartment/office construction sites everywhere, Westconnex scars through the inner west and on and on.
    Maybe it will all be great in the end, but this World City has turned into a dump for the whole LNP term.

  8. All we need now for some symmetry is for the SCG Trust to decide they will go ahead with the demolition/rebuild of Allianz Stadium no matter what, and Berejiklian to guarantee that the NSW taxpayers will pay for it (and Treasurer Dominic Perrottet to sign a secret side letter to say that if Labor are elected all their friends in the construction industry who are handed the contracts will be entitled to hundreds of millions in compensation).

  9. The Coalition would be mad not to go to a federal election in Feb. It would be the only chance they have of holding on to NSW. Are they really going to throw away 2 governments on the chance that delaying the inevitable at a federal level will lead to a recovery?

    I say this as a Labor supporter who hopes the Coalition lose both.

  10. “Luke Foley was a drag on the ALP vote.
    I don’t know a lot about Daley but I still have my doubts about NSW ALP. I will preference them ahead of the coalition but I’m not sure who I will vote for.
    I’ve seen nothing from the NSW ALP to be confident of voting first for them. If the debacle that is the LNP in Canberra was not occuring my gut feeling is the Libs would be ahead here.”

    Come on Sonar. Daley promises to leave SFS a pile of rubble and hence SFC without a home ground. What’s not to love about that outcome for a true Wanderers fan.

    Added bonuses – both the Rooters and Tahs will be without a home ground as well and Tony Shepherd and Alan Jones will both infarct live on 2GB!

    Unless you are a Rooters, Tahs or SFC fan, one should be joining with the rest of Sydney cheering with the schadenfreude of it all!

  11. Daley looks like a bank branch manager (from the days when you could trust a bank branch manager). I think he will do well.
    Jim, according to La Tingle Turnbull was planning to pull the trigger just after Australia day and feast on the festive good-will. I agree that waiting to May is nuts (Unless you want to stretch out your time as PM, which is probably the case)

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-17/scott-morrison-prime-minister-for-fairdinkumness/10505460

  12. Scomo will hold out till May because he thinks his brand of god botherin’, snake oil salesman spiv (with an added dash of bogan Shire ad man slickness), will be too much for Shorten.
    He’s delusional of course but I reckon he does believe that.

  13. @Andrew Earlwood……….I opposed the SFS build from the get go and if Daley wins and follows through good.
    My main point was about Foley and the lack of policy from NSW Labor. I’m not a member of a political party and there is no way the MSM in Sydney will give Labor any decent air time so it’s up to the ALP to get out and spread the word about what they will do.
    I’ve seen nothing. If there any NSW ALP members here who want to drop some links to the NSW ALP policies I am more than happy to read them…….not Federal ALP policy….but those for NSW.

  14. Dr Joe looks safe here in sunny Wagga Wagga.
    If fact I’d go so far as to suggest that Dr Joe looks safe for a few terms.
    Wagga needed a doctor after Dollar Daz was exposed as a phoney.
    The prognosis is good for the humble folk of Wagga Wagga.

  15. sprocket_ it takes a lot of skill by us drivers to get 3 buses to turn up together.
    I ran a 389 from Ocean St Wollahra to Town Hall one day and didn’t pick up a single passenger.
    I came around the bend at Burton St near St Vincent’s and counted 4 389s in front of me!

  16. It’s quite amazing that only 57% of NSW voters can name the opposition leader, but he is the preferred premier. Given the lingering stench of the Obeid days, and the rate that new infrastructure is being built in Sydney, it just has to be the federal shambles that is hurting the NSW version of the LNP. Gladys has had her fair share of cockups but seems fairly harmless relative to nasties like Abbot and Dutton. My guess is that she’ll get home narrowly, or we might end up with a hung parliament. There are very few LNP seats needing a small swing to fall. I’m not sure a NSW Labor win would be in Federal Labor’s best interests anyway-better maybe for voters to feel the LNP has not yet been punished enough when the federal election comes around.

  17. Daley is doing very well for name recognition if 57% can name him already. There was a similar stat for ability to name the Premier after Barry O’Farrell had been Premier for 18 months.

    I think the Coalition would have to be petrified about the damage that the federal government can do to them, especially with the federal election apparently after the state one. Their best hope might be that by then it is completely obvious to everyone that the federal government will lose.

  18. Catprog it was probably one of those days where Bondi Rd and Old South Head Rd were carparks.
    What people don’t realise is that the bus that turns up hasn’t just come out of the depot.
    My shift back then was a 360 North Clovelly to Bondi Jctn which was usually on time or close to on time most days.
    Followed by a 381 from Bondi Beach to Bondi Jctn. Again most days I started on time. BUT getting to BJI relied on the traffic on Bondi Rd. 14 minutes scheduled running time. Realistically 20 to 25 minutes. And there were days it took me 30 to 45.
    Then down to 7 Ways to do a 389 to the Jctn.
    Then around to Ocean St to do the short runner 389 to Town Hall.
    The 7 ways 389 again had a 15 minutes running time. Closer to 20 without delays.
    And there is bugger all time to run special to start trips because if they gave us more we weren’t being productive.
    Bus drivers are grossly underpaid for the shit they have to put up with to provide an essential service.

  19. Light rail and other delayed/mismanaged projects , Sydney Trains issues, weak authority of premier, tolls and more tolls , money for stadiums and general discontent in regions will hurt LNP.

    I tgink Labor will form government after next NSW election.

    Reachtel underestimates ALP in state polls, particularly when other small parties like One Nation is included.

    Galaxy poll is terrible for government.

  20. Antonbruckner11, initially the private operators had people with clipboards and hi vis vests at selected points checking on the drivers. Haven’t seen them around so much now. They offered $5,000 dollars for best on time running. Not sure if that was for a single driver but I thought I saw something about it being shared.
    Have a think about that. To run on time requires a lot of luck or speeding and either not stopping or leaving passengers behind.
    As an example. I was doing 343s. Kingsford to Chatswood and return. Pacific Hway Mater Hospital stop. M20 stopped there. Passengers come to me. Do you go to St Leonards railway station?
    No but the M20 does.
    Passenger: the driver told me he doesn’t.
    Return trip same thing at Union Hotel.
    Do you go to Town Hall or Wynyard?
    No but the M20 that just pulled out does.
    He told me he doesn’t. Or they just don’t stop for flagging passengers. That happened multiple times.
    Constance is full of shit.
    And he should be a sitting duck for Labor.

  21. Aqualung. Many thanks. I would expect that the private operator’s performance will deteriorate over time. After all, they make more money by offering a shoddy service. We shall see.

  22. I believe on time running has not improved.
    It is being masked by running more buses on selected routes.
    The claim was $144m saved over 10 years.
    If they cut driver wages and conditions they are going to have an awful lot of empty buses sitting in depots.
    There is a lot of driver churn now. It’s poor pay for the conditions you are expected to tolerate.

  23. sonar@11:56am
    You mentioned that you will preference NSW ALP above LNP. But you are not sure whom to vote 1. Now that means you want to vote for Greens. If you want to vote that way then you will be voting for a Greens branch which is even more riven than its Victorian counter part.

  24. @Ven…..no, it means I may vote independent first. I’m not a fan of the Greens, If people wish to vote for them that’s their choice and their right. Not for me though. I would preference the Greens after ALP but before Libs.

  25. Given the surprising fact that Labor it seems has quite a reasonable chance of forming the next NSW government, they better pull their finger out and develop something approximating a sane transport policy for a city which is already heavily congested, and which is adding about 100,000 people per year. Based on what I could find on the net, the plan is to stop building of three new tollways, and terminate the metro line at Sydenham. In return, Labor will “consider” future transport options for southern Sydney, and “accelerate” the metro west line. Hopefully there is time for Daley to pull together something better than this crap before the March election.

  26. Take it from me… there is no accelerating Sydney Metro West – it is full steam ahead behind the scenes. There is an industry briefing on 6 December, I’d expect a pretty solid announcement of details before that.

    Transport is unfortunately not an area where the ALP have much credibility in the eyes of the public, due to some poor decisions by Costa and Carr in the last government, and the revolving door after that which seemed to come with a new transport plan for each new premier and not enough time to get it done before losing office.

    I’d suggest using the recent 40 year transport master plan as a basis for ALP transport policy, perhaps selecting some projects from that plan as promises. The fact they are in the plan means the public service has already done work on them, and they should get off the ground quicker. With the long lead time on transport projects, if you are really lucky you can get them finished just before the end of your second 4 year term, so getting started quickly is essential. We can see this now with the Coalition trying desperately to get projects finished to aid their reelection.

    Oh, and they gotta ditch the Metro termination at Sydenham, or they are going to have a massive capacity crunch on the Airport line and no way to solve it as they won’t be able to add any new services. All of the current Bankstown line services that are to be removed for the Metro are services which can be allocated to other lines, and capacity is currently in short supply!

  27. “Oh, and they gotta ditch the Metro termination at Sydenham, or they are going to have a massive capacity crunch on the Airport line and no way to solve it as they won’t be able to add any new services. All of the current Bankstown line services that are to be removed for the Metro are services which can be allocated to other lines, and capacity is currently in short supply!”

    My mate was one of the planners for that metro extension. He has now moved to qld to plan the cross river rail link. He reckons extending the metro past Sydenham is mad. More bang for buck in putting in an uber cross connection platform and running the existing Bankstown line as a heavy rail shuttle from lidcombe.

    At the moment Bankstown line services only run every 15 inured or so, mainly because of the pinch point at sydneham when the other southern lines connect for the run into town. A shuttle service (even heavy commuter rail with drivers and conductors) could run down that line every five minutes & connect to the metro at sydenham . As long as the cross connection platform had suffInept capacity one could step off one service and straight onto the other: door to door commute times would be comparable. Capacity would double on the Bankstown line, capacity for the other southern Sydney heavy lines would be freed up and best of all: it could be done for under a billion dollar, thus saving the tax payer more than ten billion.

  28. “The poll also has new Labor leader Michael Daley leading Gladys Berejiklian 54.2-45.8 on preferred premier”….

    Well, there you go, good news for the NSW ALP after Foley’s exit. The loss of NSW before the Federal election would be a catastrophe for ScuMo and his Gang.

    The Neoliberal castle of cards is falling apart, isn’t it ScuMo?

  29. Jim + Andrew one of the things I’ve most disliked about state politics is the really stupid politics over rail and public transport. I’m doing my best behind the scenes to provide good advice to an incoming state Labor government but there’s been a lot of bad advice.

    There is essentially no harm in metro converting the Bankstown line and a lot of good that comes from it. Yes you could have turned the Bankstown line into a shuttle by having a cross platform interchange at Sydenham. But this would have meant a fairly expensive, time consuming and disruptive process in itself. To gain the width needed for a cross platform interchange means extending outside the existing station footprint into Railway Parade. You then either have to resume a bunch of shop fronts or else convert their frontage to a footpath.

    You also have the problem that the station buildings on platforms 1+2 are heritage and that means a new cross platform interchange would take out the Gleeson Avenue bridge. You then have to build a much larger bridge and you end up resuming people’s houses in the process.

    Its a couple of hundred million worth of work and a couple of years to execute and it means closing the line for 4-6 months.

    Besides this was only possible before the SSJ contract (Sydenham and station junction). For Labor to pull this stunt after the fact means that you have to do all of the above, plus you have to disrupt the metro as well.

    Its a billion or so dollars to convert the Bankstown line. That’s a lot of money but its a pretty small part of the overall metro project ($12+ billion). Plus a fair bit of the money goes into upgrades of the stations and their environs (stuff like accessibility too). That’s money you would eventually have to spend regardless – hundreds of millions.

    Plus the single deck metro trains accelerate and decelerate faster than the existing fleet. On a line such as the Bankstown line that adds up to several minutes time saving. Plus when you connect the Bankstown line to the metro you give the people who use that line a faster path into the CBD. So you save overall about 7-10 minutes from Bankstown. That’s quite significant.

    Plus you get higher frequency. Yes you could provide higher frequency on a double deck shuttle version but that’s expensive. Your trains require staff and they would be hauling a lot of air.

    Is the metro a poor match to the Bankstown line? Yes its overkill. But that depends on where the metro goes next. If it takes over the rest of the line to Lidcombe and Cabramatta then its not such a problem. If it extends to Liverpool, ditto.

    The problem is that if Labor do cancel the metro conversion of the Bankstown line, they aren’t about to go and spend a couple hundred million on a proper interchange and as you note, creating a shuttle won’t be all that popular. What will actually happen if Labor do do this is that it will default to the “temporary” setup where Bankstown line trains use platforms 3+4 at Sydenham and continue to take up space in the city circle.

    The airport line is the worst line in Sydney and its growing at over 10% a year. If Labor is stupid enough to cancel the metro conversion of the Bankstown line, further crowding of the airport line will come back to bite Labor on the ass.

    There’s no other solution that is both sensible and cheap. I’m hoping that if and when Labor get into office, they are well briefed and quietly back away from this.

    And yes, Jim is right. Metro West is being pushed as hard as it will go. You aren’t going to speed it up. Its bounded by process.

  30. Andrew the constraint for Bankstown trains isn’t really platform resources at Sydenham (it does cause some timetable padding). Rather its that the Bankstown line trains run into the city circle.

    In the peak they run Bankstown trains into the city circle alternately clockwise then counter-clockwise. That way it takes 4 slots from the inner west line and 4 slots form the airport line. Those 4 extra airport line trains are badly needed now and the inner west is getting steadily more crowded as well.

  31. Parramatta moderate

    Given the surprising fact that Labor it seems has quite a reasonable chance of forming the next NSW government, they better pull their finger out and develop something approximating a sane transport policy for a city which is already heavily congested, and which is adding about 100,000 people per year. Based on what I could find on the net, the plan is to stop building of three new tollways, and terminate the metro line at Sydenham. In return, Labor will “consider” future transport options for southern Sydney, and “accelerate” the metro west line. Hopefully there is time for Daley to pull together something better than this crap before the March election.

    I’m up to my neck in this as we speak. I’m afraid there isn’t enough time to convince Daley to announce major new rail projects before the election kicks off. I’m hoping that they back away from the Bankstown metro cancellation.

    As for the western harbour tunnel. That is badly designed and could be rethought (and at a saving).
    The beaches link is dubious business case wise. You’d get more bang for buck from half the money spent on mass transit.
    The F6 is also a bad idea although its likely the first section will be locked in. A better alternative is a near motorway standard connection between the Princes Motorway and the A6/M5 junction.

    There is talk of there being consideration of better rail to Wollongong. That will probably result in another study and I have colleagues who are looking into this. (Thirroul tunnel being one such thing).

    Surprisingly the best thing you could possible do for T4 (the trains to Cronulla and south) is to continue with the plan to extend Metro West south to Kingsford Smith, Kogarah and then down to join the Cronulla line. Its a lot of money but its one of those essential things we will simply have to build at some stage.

    If I had my way, state Labor would also propose to study a fast train to western Sydney (Blacktown, St Marys etc) in parallel to Metro West (which is too slow). I guess we’ll see.

    Federal Labor could have a role if Federal Labor can be convinced to ditch the 2013 Phase 2 HSR Study and instead build an alternate fast/high speed rail network that also connects major centres within Sydney.

  32. Gorks it is unfortunate that the CBD light rail has been poorly executed. Its actually a good project.
    There are already better and more cost effective ways to implement light rail and all the cheap political point scoring is having the undesired effect of smearing the name of light rail itself.

  33. Thanks to all for the info about Sydney rail.

    Too tired to take it all in tonight – will get a map out and look at it on Monday.

    Looking at the Sydney rail map in recent years I am always happy to see a few ‘cross connecting’ lines. Melbourne, flat as it is, is almost just a radial network with very little connection except for the central rail loop – the geography actually makes it easier to do cross connections than Sydney.

    Both cities will have to invest heavily in connecting and extending their transport networks to help cope with expansion. Labor in Victoria got a lot of extra votes I think from the rail extensions, and grade separations (skyrail and other crossing removals).

  34. Cud Chewer, I strongly disagree about the CBD & South East Light Rail being a good project. In my opinion it would have been far more effective to make George St a bus only zone north of Railway Square during peak times. The route is also incredibly strange, with talk already of duplicating the south eastern section with a metro line to better service the SCG; that’s what should have been built from the start. If light rail is to be put anywhere in Sydney, it should have been connecting USyd to Redfern, given Metro West is likely to also skip there by going through the Bays Precinct instead.

    As a side note: Originally the southbound free 555 shuttle bus used to terminate around Rawson Pl, where the light rail will turn off George St. By popular demand, it was extended all the way to Railway Square before doing its u-turn to head back north. Won’t be as easy to make that change with tracks in the ground…

  35. I’m a bus driver in the depot most affected by the tram. As a project it has been botched from start to when it finishes.
    I couldn’t give a rats in terms of it affecting my job. Hopefully I’ll be retired in a few years
    This project has been poorly conceived. Poorly designed and poorly constructed. Honestly how do you explain tracks nearly 6 inches under water on Wednesday. Gladys is useless. Constance is a shonk. His cv matches scomos. Neither have had a real job in their life and I suspect Gladys spent her time in a corporate sheltered workshop.

  36. @CC

    “Its a billion or so dollars to convert the Bankstown line. ”

    If it was that cheap, I’d support it. Initial estimates were about 2.5 billion, but I understand that it could be more than double or triple that amount: the line is so ill suited to conversion every bit of infrastructure has to be ripped out until you are left with just the corridor before you start to rebuild it as a metro.

    I agree with you about the problems with our double deck fleet running shuttle services, and what is required at sydnenham is largely as you describe. However I would have thought that a bespoke fleet of a dozen single decked train sets (each operated by a driver and conductor) would work effectively with the metro to sydnenham. The rolling stock plus sydnenham station upgrade would cost around $2billion, but the overall cost savings would be enormous.

  37. They’ve preserved some red rattlers. Perhaps they can rip the seats out and press them into service.
    Can’t see destroying the Bankstown line helping the grossly overcrowded Western line and please don’t insult people by using Gladys’ meaningless alphabet soup bs.

  38. @Andrew_Earlwood

    That’s not right. The plans changed recently to be less disruptive – probably in response to Labor policy.

    The Bankstown line conversion will do a couple of things. They will install lifts, platform screen doors and mechanical gap fillers at each station. They will also give them a paint job and raise the level of the platform by a few inches but not much more.

    The track alignment and platform location stays the same. The overhead power system stays the same. They will install a few extra substations to support running more trains than now.

    There is no way the new scope of work is $2.5b, let alone 2 or 3 times that.

    All of the above, however, is an opportunity for Labor. Claim victory and move on. Say that the Coalition only changed to the less disruptive version of the conversation in response to Labor policy, and that Labor has managed to reduce the impact on commuters.

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