BludgerTrack: 54.5-45.5 to Labor

A devastating Newspoll strips the Coalition of almost all of its poll trend gains from two improved results last week.

In the week that brought them the Victorian election result, Newspoll has taken from the Coalition what Ipsos and Essential Research gave the week before in BludgerTrack, with Labor up 0.6% on two-party preferred and making seat projection gains in Victoria and South Australia. I’m afraid I’ve been too preoccupied/lazy to update the leadership trends, but Newspoll is unlikely to have changed them much. Other than that, full results from the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,307 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.5-45.5 to Labor”

  1. davidwh

    Saw an article in the SMH a couple of weeks back. % of tax payers it effects ? 8%. 50% of those have super balances above $2,000,000. Methinks the changes will not affect the ‘battlers’.

  2. Upnorth the situation for the Libs is diabolical in my opinion and will get worse before it gets better. They need to catch up with the majority of Australians in critical areas like climate change, integrity in organizations and politics.

  3. Upnorth

    I can hear David Attenborough’s commentary. (whispering quality to not disturb the bird)

    “This is the extremely rare and now endangered ‘Shouting Goose’, Scottus Morrisoni, wading here in the shallows of Botany Bay. It has been relocated from Canberra after unsuccessful attempts to find suitable habitats in both New Zealand and Australia.

    The goose shouts and shouts – but nobody listens. Most of its genus, the Liberali, have died out, despite a long period dominated by them mainly centred around Sydney Harbour and the nearby beaches. This mournful shouting across Botany Bay – perhaps the goose is searching in vain for the apocryphal canoes being paddled out to Cook’s ship The Endeavour nearly two and a half centuries ago?

    A sad sight. And the incessant shouting has distressed the locals so much that have mobilised to once again move this goose on – they thought they had got rid of it a decade ago when it was relocated to Canberra. But hope lives on, with the local council last night endorsing a rule specifically designed for this poor Shouting Goose. They have proclaimed that a two-thirds majority of local inhabitants in favour of removal must be obtained before the Shouting Goose can be again removed from this local habitat.

    So these shouts across Botany Bay may signal a return of this endangered species. And the Shouting Goose may live to shout another day.”

  4. DW

    Question I think Shorten’s proposed changes to dividend imputation are a bad move unless they are means tested in some way.

    ____________________________________

    Found this on a super site:

    To ensure that the measure does not impact upon those receiving a government pension or allowance (including those receiving a full or part age pension, disability support pension, carer payment, parenting payment, Newstart or sickness allowance), Labor has announced a Pensioner Guarantee, meaning recipients will still receive any excess dividend imputation credits as a cash refund.

  5. The Kouk nails it again:


    Under the current negative gearing and capital gains tax rules, this is what has happened to house prices in the following cities since their recent peak:
    Sydney -9.5%
    Melbourne -5.8%
    Perth -14.8%
    Darwin -23.1%

    Suggests house prices also influenced by a range of other issues

  6. Poroti I understand the need to make the truely well off make a fair contribution but there are people with much less wealth who will be affected. Admittedly I am one of those people so have a bias on the subject.

  7. Nicholas is at his worst when he trash talks a UBI. Its pathetic because he can actually talk sense sometimes but over the JG/UBI issue he’s just plain rusted on.

    Unconvincing, totally.

  8. Those rule changes tonight seem to describe the situation for the Liberal leader who wins the Liberals an election, but not otherwise. So (1) Morrison is vulnerable still, but also (2) once a leader has been rolled by that 2/3 majority that next leader becomes vulnerable to a simple majority. Did I get that right? That would make the new rule a double disincentive to challenge, and suggests that any ambitious Liberal should rather white-ant their own government and aim to become leader in opposition, preferably in the 12 months before the next election. The dynamics will be interesting.

    And is Labor’s rule similar or does the 75% rule continue for the next PM too?

  9. C@tmomma @ #3257 Monday, December 3rd, 2018 – 9:44 pm

    The Kouk nails it again:


    Under the current negative gearing and capital gains tax rules, this is what has happened to house prices in the following cities since their recent peak:
    Sydney -9.5%
    Melbourne -5.8%
    Perth -14.8%
    Darwin -23.1%

    Suggests house prices also influenced by a range of other issues

    Outstanding. Double the Darwin figure and apply it everywhere, and we’ll be close to having a workable solution to housing affordability.

  10. I agree Davidwh, I cant see why dividends aren’t going to be treated like every other income at the top marginal rate. Keating knew it was the right thing to do.

  11. a r
    says:
    Double the Darwin figure and apply it everywhere, and we’ll be close to having a workable solution to housing affordability
    __________________________________
    We sure will be. Imagine the millions walking off their properties after borrowing a fortune for them. This could be the solution to the poverty gap. This way, everyone will be in poverty. No more gap!

  12. Keating introduced the stupid credit system. If you think company taxes on top of personal taxes is double dipping then don’t collect company taxes on dividends paid to Australians in the first place.

  13. Unless changed, the Liberals have a automatic spill of leadership positions after a loss. This wasn’t an issue in 2007 🙂
    Not sure about 2010. Possibly Abbott claimed it wasn’t a loss.

    If I recall correctly, Labor’s 2/3 rule applies to any sitting PM not just if elected.

  14. A New Zealand woman has unsuccessfully argued that she was a victim of racial discrimination after being labelled a “Kiwi” by her colleagues in Australia.

    She would have grounds if they called her a Tory.

  15. The problem I see with retirees benefits, is the planning is based around living off the dividends, and maintaining the capital.

    If forced due by tax changes to start spending the capital they claim they are being robbed.

  16. John Reidy, thanks. That helps. I’m not finding any detail on the interwebs and I missed the live on-air reporting. It sounds that this new rule was done in haste.

  17. Personally if I had sufficient super to live off the income only I’d be very happy. Hopefully, God willing and baring a major bear run, my super will last another 8/10 years and then the taxpayers will have to keep me.

    Issue is there are a lot of folks caught between the pensioners and those with super accounts $1 million and above.

  18. Troy BramstonVerified account@TroyBramston
    2h2 hours ago
    Of course, Liberal MPs and scores of conservative commentators ridiculed Labor’s rule changes to allow members to vote for leader and protections against party room challenges – now watch them back this #auspol

    Anyone checked in to see how the tortured souls at Sky After Dark are coping?

  19. Confessions @ #3271 Monday, December 3rd, 2018 – 11:14 pm

    Troy BramstonVerified account@TroyBramston
    2h2 hours ago
    Of course, Liberal MPs and scores of conservative commentators ridiculed Labor’s rule changes to allow members to vote for leader and protections against party room challenges – now watch them back this #auspol

    Anyone checked in to see how the tortured souls at Sky After Dark are coping?

    And become tortured souls too?

    No thank you!

  20. Upnorth

    Just caught up with your comments about Melbourne from early this afternoon – made me laugh a lot.

    We lived in Queensland (Gold Coast so NQ and FNQ people probably regard that more as NSW!) and loved it. Also in Alice Springs and Darwin.

    Regarding clothing – I loved the signs outside a few pubs in Darwin that read “No singlets or thongs”. I’m sure some people wondered whether that meant you should take them off at the door and go in topless and barefoot!

    We both did the occasional barefoot shop at Casuarina Plaza shopping centre – maybe a Darwin rite of passage ?

  21. The only way these Liberal rule changes make sense, given they only apply to the leader who was leader at the time of an election win, is that they plan to bring back Turnbull!!

  22. Swamprat I think they are just trying to create the illusion their rules provide the same leader stability as the Labor rule. People are really sick to death of revolving PM’s. We suffer enough from revolting PM’s.

  23. @ Rocket Rocket

    Yep Upnorth dressing up is putting on a pair of thongs! Things have changed though with the Southern influx. When I was a kid no one wore footwear of any variety to primary school. Now I imagine no one would go barefoot.

    We were amazed one winter when southern relations came to visit. They had to have the ceiling fan on at dinner and it was a freezing 20 degrees that cold and frosty night.

    Anyone living South of Mackay is considered a southerner.

  24. The Company paid tax at the designated flat rate – the dividend paid from the after tax profit

    Shareholders paid tax on the dividend received – at the upper marginal tax rate which was 60 cents in the $1- until reduced by Hawke and Keating

    Back in the day a part of my salary package included an interest free Share Purchase Loan for Scrip in the Company – which was fine until you paid the tax on the dividend

    So my employer was taxed then I was taxed – so double taxation

    Costello, of course, changed the legislation to what it is today giving benefit to the select demographic it gives benefit to (such as WAM Shareholders. Hands up those who know who WAM are, noting they have scaled their heavily advertised 200,000 petition back to 100,000 and still obviously struggling)

    And, as a first, I agree Nath’s assessment of the presentation of ar

    And if house prices got too high and unaffordable, there were still borrowers

    Further, banks function on arbitrage so need to lend including because significant of their lending is on a principal plus interest repayment basis so there is a replacement factor before they grow the book

    People will always qualify to borrow

    The references to a change of government and changes to NG and CGT gives the game away in regard those peddling their misleading statistics, misleading because they are headline figures only so meaningless

    How many “For Sale” signs are going up in your Street because house prices are easing from historical highs?

  25. On Monday, Bush will return to Washington, where he will lie in state at the Capitol until Wednesday when, as tradition demands, Trump will attend the former president’s funeral at Washington National Cathedral. It’s unclear whether Trump will deliver a eulogy.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/honorable-gracious-and-decent-in-death-bush-becomes-a-yardstick-for-president-trump/2018/12/02/a38c3f36-f656-11e8-8d64-4e79db33382f_story.html?utm_term=.35d10cfa4876

    Please don’t.

  26. nath @ #3265 Monday, December 3rd, 2018 – 9:52 pm

    Imagine the millions walking off their properties after borrowing a fortune for them.

    Nobody will walk off their property unless they own some other property to walk right back into.

    This could be the solution to the poverty gap. This way, everyone will be in poverty. No more gap!

    Well yes, if property speculators walk away from their speculative activities at prices that are accessible to people who aren’t already wealthy, that could make a huge dent in the poverty gap. You’ll have fewer people who own lots of houses for poor reasons (like extracting personal profit), and more people who own one house for a good reason (like living in it).

  27. Kicking Mr Turnbull out of the Liberal Party would be yet another example of action taken without any attempt to think through the consequences. One might query, first, whether he has actually broken any party rules? If not, he would be cashed up enough to start by challenging the decision in court, just for a bit of fun. And he’d then be off the leash to campaign quite explicitly against the dinosaurs at the coming election. (Some might think he wasn’t much of a campaigner as PM, but the sort of focussed efforts we could anticipate next year wouldn’t need much skill, and in any case, the mere fact of his campaigning would be a story in itself, which the media would amplify mightily.)

  28. davidwh

    As a fully self funded retiree, those I have sympathy for are those partly self funded retirees who were also part pensioners and lost their part pensions

    They are far, far more deserving that those who have so arranged their circumstances to receive imputation Credits when remitting no tax in the first instance

    Your comment that your superannuation accruals will only provide you with an income stream for 8 years and you will then become an Aged Pensioner is a comment I am unable to reconcile

  29. The rumour floated here earlier of a March election seems plausible to me. I was struck by the high risks associated with planning to call an election in early April, possibly in the immediate aftermath of the defeat of the State government in NSW. Such a defeat would add an air of total panic to any coalition campaign; the atmospherics would be like those in the weeks leading to the collapse of South Vietnam and the fall of Saigon.

  30. Observer @ #3280 Monday, December 3rd, 2018 – 10:26 pm

    So my employer was taxed then I was taxed – so double taxation

    That’s kind of exactly like saying ‘My wages are taxed as I earn them, and then when I use my remaining after-tax income to hire someone to look after my garden there’s income tax on the amount I pay them, so double taxation’. Which is a thing that might be said, but also incorrect as an example of double taxation.

    And, as a first, I agree Nath’s assessment of the presentation of ar

    I can see why you might, if you thought what you provided above was a legitimate example of double taxation. 😛

  31. What I find amusing is that people talk about imputation credits as if the people using them are ‘fiddling’. The credits themselves are the ‘fiddle’. Just get rid of them, and then decide what the tax rates should be.

  32. Observer

    As a fully self funded retiree, those I have sympathy for are those partly self funded retirees who were also part pensioners and lost their part pensions

    ___________________________________

    I’m in the same position and totally agree. The reason why they got screwed is that there were no rich bastards who could use them as cover for their scams.

    But there are plenty of liquid asset rich people who have protected super funds where they can get thousands of dollars of free cash from the Treasury by way of imputation credits and they need the cover of the old age pensioner who gets a $100 windfall from their handful of Telstra shares.

  33. If the Liberals were to dump Bishop – by far the most well-recognised and popular Liberal in WA – they should expect to lose every seat they hold with the possible exception of O’Connor.

    The issues are climate change, race baiting, sexism, homophobia and the incoherence of the Liberal Party. Bishop is one of the very few voices in the Liberals Party that is reasonably in line with community opinion. If the RW try to disenfranchise her they will pay an enormous price.

    …on another note….the leadership-security motion passed by the Liberals tonight means they are renewing their subscription to insanity and stupidity. Disaffected Lib-leaning and swinging voters will not reward them for this. They will feel they have no choice other than to vote Labor.

    The Liberals have condemned themselves to recurring blame for the climate-change driven woes that will continue to unfold. These changes are driven by the laws of physics..laws the Liberals cannot abolish. They will be blamed for years to come for their intransigence and their duplicity. I doubt they will ever recover from it.

  34. When it comes to Turnbull, the Liberals should understand they have humiliated Vanity. Vanity will not forgive them but will seek self-vindication and the pleasures of revenge. He also signifies something that by his lights they can never be – and that is intelligence. He will be remorseless in relation to those whom he thinks are worthless idiots.

  35. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/dec/03/david-attenborough-collapse-civilisation-on-horizon-un-climate-summit

    These messages have registered very deeply with voters. They have also registered inside the Liberal Party. However, the Liberals have imposed an embargo on discussion of these matters, even among themselves. The result is that the Liberals are silent on the meta-issue that most insistently works on the minds of voters.

    They have betrayed themselves, their supporters and the rest of us all at the same time. They will not be forgiven for this. They have proven they are not to be trusted. This is terminal for the Liberal Party.

  36. If NSW Libs have to take the first election hit, they will blame Federal Libs as Victoria is now doing.

    The Lib election day workers will be humiliated and then have to front up again for another belting. Why would you bother?

    Labor on the other hand will be so happy and have even more supporters come out of the woodwork to finish off the Fed Libs.

    MT is correct to say Scummo should go first to give his NSW counterparts a chance to save the party and have a base from which to rebuild.

    Will he do as MT suggests or smash his party to where they may never recover? Is it about him or his supporters and believers.

  37. Mr Ed, I think the voters of NSW and elsewhere are going to punish the Liberals until they recant. Each defeat will licence another one. The Liberals have totally debased themselves. They will not recover until they apologise, purge the Crazies and rescind their idiotic policies. They will be beaten without mercy by their own past supporters until they atone. Wagga Wagga, Wentworth, Victoria, NSW…and onwards, including the forthcoming national election. Until they listen to voters they will be smashed at every opportunity.

  38. TPOF
    says:
    Monday, December 3, 2018 at 11:46 pm
    Observer
    As a fully self funded retiree, those I have sympathy for are those partly self funded retirees who were also part pensioners and lost their part pensions
    ___________________________________
    I’m in the same position and totally agree. The reason why they got screwed is that there were no rich bastards who could use them as cover for their scams.
    But there are plenty of liquid asset rich people who have protected super funds where they can get thousands of dollars of free cash from the Treasury by way of imputation credits and they need the cover of the old age pensioner who gets a $100 windfall from their handful of Telstra shares.

    I am a Labour partisan but I will happily admit this silly buggers by the ALP. I fully expect they will win the argument, but by sheer force of “who gives a fuck” rather than by the better argument. It really makes no difference to affected capital. That will just shift to non-Australian assets.

    Costello made the change to credit all tax collected, but it was also an ALP election platform at the time. Imputation credits are a complete fraud that Keating implemented. They create a situation where ALP partisans now honestly believe that people on lower incomes should pay more tax on their dividends than people with serious amounts of money. It is a taxation contrivance, a fiddle designed to deceive. Get rid of it altogether.

  39. Good Morning Bludgers 🙂

    Essential, phew! I honestly thought people were beginning to reward baseless negative campaigning by the Fiberals!

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