BludgerTrack: 54.5-45.5 to Labor

A devastating Newspoll strips the Coalition of almost all of its poll trend gains from two improved results last week.

In the week that brought them the Victorian election result, Newspoll has taken from the Coalition what Ipsos and Essential Research gave the week before in BludgerTrack, with Labor up 0.6% on two-party preferred and making seat projection gains in Victoria and South Australia. I’m afraid I’ve been too preoccupied/lazy to update the leadership trends, but Newspoll is unlikely to have changed them much. Other than that, full results from the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,307 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.5-45.5 to Labor”

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  1. Morrison is playing a long game here – 535 more days before he squeezes past McMahon as the shortest serving Liberal PM.

  2. Bleh. Don’t like the Liberal PM? You can convince a majority of the LP MHRs but not the whole caucus? Just split. Morrison was right when he said you can’t regulate for culture. If the party is poisonous, it’ll kill.

  3. I am not Julie Bishop fan, but she is probably the only person who would be able to form a moderate conservative party if booted from the Liberal Party after it self combusts.

  4. ScumMo is now burning the furniture that Trumble saved in 2016 – just to keep gutless bullies like Abbott, Joyce, Dutton (and their proxies – like Kelly) from the tumbrils for another 4-5 months. Why?

  5. “Ive been saying for months now that the Libs need to go to the election and then figure out what they stand for. The last week has just furthered that view.”

    They stand for Big Money. Big Money wants to become bigger Money without having to be bothered by regulation regarding fair work, the environment and so forth and they don’t want to pay tax. To further advance this objective they want to dismantle what’s left of the post-war social contract and further weaken the bargaining power of workers. A powerful subgroup – the miners and fossil fuel interests – wants to block any action on climate change.

    Everything else is just putting together a coalition of interests to make up the numbers to vote for them – the religious, the conservative, the fearful, the bigoted.

  8. nath says:
    Monday, December 3, 2018 at 10:10 pm
    I don’t know what he would like about it apart from Williams stats and analysis. The only LNP commenters here are Wayne/Bree.

    Maybe Paul likes Greenie Chicks who dig Dolphins?? Did see him eat a meat pie though. Really quick.

  9. Maybe someone already posted this, but I just need to vent.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/dec/03/milo-yiannopoulos-more-than-2m-in-debt-australian-promoters-documents-show

    “[Milo Yiannopoulos is] really seriously considering a move to Australia in the next year or two. The political environment in the US is insane. So pulling this off well really matters to me [i.e. Milo].”

    It is alleged he actually said that.

    Any kettles around? I have a message from the pot.

  10. This Hamish bloke is a complete fuckwit.

    How can he accuse Labor of doing nothing to alleviate Global Warming?

    How can he allow Vanstone to actually mock Labor over the Carbon Tax, as if this is some kind of evidence they did nothing?

    This Q&A is the worst, and the worst mediated I have ever seen.

    Trivial. Shallow. Full of ABC luvvies giggling amongst themselves.

    An effing disgrace.

  12. nath says:

    I don’t know what he would like about it

    Seeing how ‘the other half live’. Orrrrrrr for the same reason I love checking out BoltA and Pies blogs. The LOLs . Except from the other end of the political spectrum’s point of view.

  15. Unbelievable!
    The ALP introduced an ETS, it reduced emissions, and got turfed by the L-NP, and yet according to Q&A they are no different. Singh had the nail and refused to whack it?

  17. poroti
    says:
    Monday, December 3, 2018 at 10:15 pm
    nath says:
    I don’t know what he would like about it
    Seeing how ‘the other half live’. Orrrrrrr for the same reason I love checking out BoltA and Pies blogs. The LOLs . Except from the other end of the political spectrum’s point of view.
    _______________________
    I wish there were a few more LNP commenters on here. Would be good. The only people I get to argue with are ALP supporters.

  22. Simon Banks always has the historical perspective spot on:

    Simon Banks
    ‏

    @SimonBanksHB
    9m9 minutes ago

    “Just weeks ago, the PM insisted he would not change the Liberal…rules to protect against future coups.

    “We have a parliamentary democracy in Australia. It’s not a presidential system…we don’t have any plans to change our processes,” Mr Morrison said.

  23. I’d like to comment positively about the L-NP but they just don’t deserve it at present.

    Saving all my energy for when Shorten and Labor start stuffing things up 🙂

  26. I had to turn Qanda off because of Vanstone. Apparently she mentored Christopher Pyne, which in part explains why he is an obnoxious smartarse.

  27. nath

    There is davidwh and he’s a Quincelander to boot and yet still a popular denizen of this menagerie. A Coalition voter but one from the opposite end of the swamp that Bree and Wayne come from. More Davids less Waynes would see the Coalition in WAY better condition politically.

  28. I would like to argue with Libs here, but they don’t do policy these days. The best they’ve got are idiot posters who are probably faux Libs having a giggle saying Morrison will rule forever.

  29. Ophuph Hucksake 1008pm

    Forget McMahon – Morrison just got to 100 days, but is still 13 short of Chris Watson’s 1904 stint at 113 days.

    Abbott and a mysterious “One-Armed Man” will knife him later this week and he’ll miss out.

  31. I disliked Pyne for years. Then he kinda grew on me. It Probably started with the ‘I’m a fixer’ stuff. Pretty amusing. At least you can see that he has a laugh with it all and doesn’t take it as seriously as some of his morose colleagues.

  33. A UBI reduces people to consumption machines. I think we need to be much more ambitious in the goals that we set for public policy.

    A UBI does not address the social and cultural aspects of exclusion that involuntarily unemployed people endure.

    A UBI has no countercyclical mechanism and no inflation control built into it. It would generate a lot of inflationary pressure that the federal government would constantly have to play whack a mole against by raising taxes.

    We need a generous social security payment (it could be called a Basic Income) for retirees, for people with illness, and for people with disabilities.

    Everyone else should be working in a job that is relevant and meaningful for them. We need to widen the definition of what counts as a good job.

  38. Rocket Rocket says:
    Monday, December 3, 2018 at 10:25 pm
    Ophuph Hucksake 1008pm

    Forget McMahon – Morrison just got to 100 days, but is still 13 short of Chris Watson’s 1904 stint at 113 days.

    Abbott and a mysterious “One-Armed Man” will knife him later this week and he’ll miss out.

    Watson was born in Chile. Doubt he would have survived Section 44 these days.

  39. Can’t wait to crack open the piggy bank & donate to Getup the moment election is called. Nothing better than an insurgent political campaign to boot out the likes of Abbott, Dutton & Joyce

  44. Thanks red.
    As for Julie Bishop. Sadly she is too old to be next opposition leader.
    She’s cactus and she knows it. She’ll keep Porter out of her safe seat and retire just after that.

  46. Property values falling

    1) There is a reference to Labor and their NG and CGT positions stampeding the market – and no Investor or Foreign buyers

    2) The fall in Sydney has been less that 10% since the middle of 2017 which was the peak

    3) The decline in Melbourne has been less than 5%, the declines commencing 4 months after Sydney so over 12 months and, again, from a peak

    4) No doubt the rhetoric is framed to support house prices crashing and rents soaring rhetoric of our talented treasurer

    5). To put property into perspective, the ASX has dropped over 10% from 31st August, so over 4 months versus 16 months and 12 months for the easing of house prices

    6). Consistent with the ASX, the declines are not universal (some have declined more and others less) plus there is weighting So the weighting skews the average

    For the property data to be meaningful we would need to know Valuation bands to give meaning to the “average” house price

    So are high end properties coming onto the market or are they not coming onto the market?

    In fact, what number of properties are coming onto the market given the headlines – so who is selling because they are being told house prices are collapsing?

    And, therefore, why?

    Particularly if the property is where they live – or it is a rental property putting net income in your pocket (and have rents gone down so less money in your pocket – but wait, our treasurer is telling us that rents are going to soar so why sell – and where do you then put the money, on Term Deposit with a 2 in front of it or in the ASX which has never recovered to pre GFC levels and has lost over 10% in the last 3 months?

    7). The summary is that we are seeing a Buyers Market – so code to go out and buy noting that the Industry make their money when people are buying not when they are not

    The attention given to a click bait headline for media consumption is unfortunate – but typical of the unquestioning media we unfortunately have these days

    And is any absence of high end property coming onto the market impacting the average price of properties coming to market?

  47. @ davidwh

    Respect your politics mate. Tell us. As a LNP supporter are we “progressive” folk getting too cocky or do you agree that things are pretty grim for the Tory side of politics??

  49. Fair enough poroti. But he brings it out of me. I know people who have known him. His currently fake persona is as far from the real Shorten as it’s possible to be.

  50. Agree David,
    My problem is I believe in progressive taxation. If they think that Australian shareholders get too much of a benefit then they should just scale it back. Not make it that the high earners still get the full write off.

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