BludgerTrack: 54.5-45.5 to Labor

A devastating Newspoll strips the Coalition of almost all of its poll trend gains from two improved results last week.

In the week that brought them the Victorian election result, Newspoll has taken from the Coalition what Ipsos and Essential Research gave the week before in BludgerTrack, with Labor up 0.6% on two-party preferred and making seat projection gains in Victoria and South Australia. I’m afraid I’ve been too preoccupied/lazy to update the leadership trends, but Newspoll is unlikely to have changed them much. Other than that, full results from the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,307 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.5-45.5 to Labor”

  1. Media pack asking why is ‘Malcolm Turnbull not PM if these are the rules?

    Why did he consult with ex PM JWH and not ex-PM Malcolm Turnbull?

  2. Hilarious that Scotty started comparing with Labor’s threshold of 50% to cause a spill motion, saying there’s more chance of a Lib PM staying in the job.

    Whatever. Roll on the next election so we can boot these clowns out.

  3. The Labor rules are that 75% of the party room are required for a spill, not 50%.

    And similar to Scotty’s two-thirds (does he realise this is 66.6%), you could argue that any future Labor or Liberal Party room could change the rules again.

  4. The Labor rules are that 75% of the party room are required for a spill, not 50%.

    So ScoMo can’t even get that right.

    I thought I caught the last question put to him being about JBishop and whether she knew about the meeting (apparently she arrived over 30mins late). He replied ‘Yes, she knew.’ If there’s more to that story perhaps we might hear about it tomorrow.

  5. The other thing, which I think is actually more significant, is the ALP process of balloting members when electing a new leader. If that process doesn’t get nuked on the way through the next ALP leadership crisis, it means that nothing can happen in a hurry, and anyone obviously involved in getting a spill motion up has to make the case to the ALP membership that it was in some way justifiable.

    That, much more than the 60%/75% threshold IMO, is what will make the ALP leadership less prone to snap brain fades/panic moves in future.

  6. sprocket_ @ #3157 Monday, December 3rd, 2018 – 5:18 pm

    The Labor rules are that 75% of the party room are required for a spill, not 50%.

    And similar to Scotty’s two-thirds (does he realise this is 66.6%), you could argue that any future Labor or Liberal Party room could change the rules again.

    Both thresholds are dumb.

    Labor’s election process makes any leadership spill unlikely to happen, whilst the Liberals require 2/3 to have a spill but only 51% to elect a leader.

  7. Bigus Stickus didn’t last long..

    More breaking news tonight. The government is in the process of revising its much vaunted “big stick” after objections from about 20 MPs, who think real Liberals don’t break up private companies theguardian.com/australia-news… #auspol

  8. Still scratching my head over that scomo presser.
    What did it actually achieve? I have no idea what he was crapping on about. So you cant be dumped before an election but after thats ok.

    It’s a deflection right?

  9. Xasrai 906pm

    Further thought: This mean that it would be FAR easier to just call a motion of no confidence on the floor of the lower house, than it would be to actually get the PM kicked out via the party room.

    In February 2015, a week before Abbott’s ’empty chair’ triumph, the Northern Territory’s ruling CLP Government thought they had overthrown Adam Giles as Chief Minister. But the Territory Administrator felt that the CLP supporters of Giles together with the ALP would themselves do a vote of no confidence in the House against the newly self-proclaimed CLP leader Willem Westra von Holthe, and refused to sack Giles.

    WWH had to back down and instead became Deputy the next day. All these shenanigans were rewarded at the 2016 election : the CLP had won 16/25 seats in 2016, and were nearly totally wiped off the map, winning just 2/25. Giles and WWH both lost their seats.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Country_Liberal_Party_leadership_spill,_2015

  10. Anyway,

    Turnbull gives his clean energy speech tomorrow. Very interesting it will be.

    I am sure he will be also be very keen to answer questions about the new rules and how, after the party shafted Turnbull, Morrison is now covering his arse so the same thing does not happen to him.

    Cheers.

  11. My sources advise
    Morrison has asserted his authority and the moderates have rolled over
    Bishop has been told tonight in no uncertain terms to shut up or she is gone.
    The Right IS now seeking to expel Turnbull, they expect to succeed.
    And, funnily, March not May is being openly touted as an election month in the PMO.
    At last more info is beginning to flow.

  12. So we have “A sandwich a week” Vanstone being called upon to tell us how good this dysfunctional government is

    A dysfunction government afraid of Parliament sitting because it does not have the numbers in the Chamber which determines the Party of government

  13. Bishop has been told tonight in no uncertain terms to shut up or she is gone.

    How can they make Bishop go?

    Interesting observations otherwise. 🙂

  14. Ive been saying for months now that the Libs need to go to the election and then figure out what they stand for. The last week has just furthered that view.

  15. Peter van OnselenVerified account@vanOnselenP
    45m45 minutes ago
    New rules or not, obviously a PMs job is entirely untenable the moment more than half of his or her party room vote against them… #auspol #windowdressing

  16. Observer says:
    Monday, December 3, 2018 at 9:45 pm
    We cannot see if Albrechsen has red shoes on to go with her Father Xmas outfit and handbag

    Is that Kroger in the handbag?

    Freddie Kroger

  17. Peter van Onselen

    Verified account

    @vanOnselenP
    38m38 minutes ago

    Huge congrats to the Liberal party room on passing a rule change that would have prevented you doing what you did a few months ago….just hilarious

  18. The wording of this change apparently does not protect Morrison, as he was not elected PM at the election. Step up Tony Abbott – this may be your last chance, especially if the election is called for March 2nd with no Parliamentary sitting days before it in 2019.

  19. PVO is absolutely right. These figures are used to fool the public and the media. If half the party room refuses to back the leaders policies, then the leader is not in control.
    In truth, it would only take 7 MPs to cross the floor of the house in this government to veto ScoMo. This is fog and mirrors for the masses.

  20. Confessions
    Morrison is sick and tired of her trailing her coat in front of the Backbenchers, speaking out against him and not being a team player.
    She was noticed hanging around and in deep discussion with Banks the day before she jumped.
    See has been noticed hanging around with the Crossbenchers as a group quite a bit.
    The Right want her gone to push Christian Porter into her seat.
    Morrison is feeling empowered by his cowering of the Moderates. Hunting season may open.
    With Kelly being saved, Molan and the Right are pushing Morrison to save Molan and put him back into number one place and push the Moderates.
    Let’s see what happens there.

  21. And, in other news:

    Tom Connell

    Verified account

    @tomwconnell
    1h1 hour ago

    #Breaking There is an imminent deal on encryption legislation, according to sources in both major parties. It will involve some compromise on when warrants can be issued and on judicial oversight. It comes despite an apparent divide in recent days

  22. Peter Van O. was happy tony Abbott was knifed – very joyful -but not Mr Turnbull.

    Illogical. You either agree with knifings of PMs, or you don’t.

    To agree with knifing of one PM, but hate it happening to your preferred one, is illogical. Because other voters will feel the opposite. Are they wrong and only you right? For a person to believe they are always right and others who have opposite opinions are always wrong – leads to a mental strangeness, because it gives no validation other people, a complete misunderstanding of human nature.

  23. Actually PVO was going on about the ‘transaction costs’ of getting rid of Abbot. While personally he no doubt like the move, he did think that politically it was a big risk and not one he would take.

  24. Red13:

    The Right want her gone to push Christian Porter into her seat.

    Yep, this has been on the cards for a while now hence JBishop staying in parliament and insisting she will contest her seat at the next election.

    But what can the Libs do to make her gone? They could disendorse her, in which case she could run as an independent and with the Libs on the nose and with all the women stuff happening for them, would likely guarantee she’d garner a hefty portion of the vote and be re-elected.

  25. nath says:
    Monday, December 3, 2018 at 9:59 pm
    Poll Bludger was just mentioned by Paul Murray. He says he likes to come on and have a look.

    He will learn a lot about light and heavy rail and Melbourne Trams!

  26. Lol.

    Stephen Koukoulas

    Verified account

    @TheKouk
    2h2 hours ago

    Meanwhile 675,000 people are unemployed; 1.1 million are underemployed; wages growth remains near record lows; govt debt at record highs; household wealth has slumped $500 billion; business investment in recession: So let’s have an urgent meeting to change the rules on leadership

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