In the week that brought them the Victorian election result, Newspoll has taken from the Coalition what Ipsos and Essential Research gave the week before in BludgerTrack, with Labor up 0.6% on two-party preferred and making seat projection gains in Victoria and South Australia. I’m afraid I’ve been too preoccupied/lazy to update the leadership trends, but Newspoll is unlikely to have changed them much. Other than that, full results from the link below.
A Liberal PM has the support of 35% of his Party room, so no spill.
That sounds like a recipe for stability! 🙂
But I assume 2/3rds of the party room won’t be needed to change the threshold to 2/3rds?
Which is why they want to get rid of him before the election 🙂
James Scullin
@JamesScullin
Meanwhile as the Prime Muppet tries to change the rules to protect himself from leadership challenges… #auspol #StableGovernment
Did Dutton damage his arm practising the ventriloquist trick while Abbott was sitting on his knee?
Is Dutton booked to fly into Canberra on Tuesday morning.
I guess we find out tonight with Libspill motion
I wonder if Merkel’s got new briefing notes yet? 🙂
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/liberal-mps-called-in-to-discuss-proposed-new-leadership-rules-20181203-p50jz1.html
Parliament is scheduled to return next February. If this is all about leadership after the next election why not hold the meeting next year and vote then ?
All it shows is,despite the “unite and fight “rhetoric, a huge lack of any confidence that the coalition has any chance of being re elected. Not really uplifting for back benchers if your leader is shitting himself five months out from a election.
I think there is a lot more to this than concern about post election. Complete bullshit actually.
The internals within the liberals must be very very dark.
Katharine Murphy
Verified account
@murpharoo
1m1 minute ago
I’m told the proposal being discussed in the party room is no leadership challenges are allowed in government. That rule can only be changed by a 2/3 vote #auspol
Just keeping you up to date with the latest guys. 🙂
Michelle Grattan made an astute observation:
Michelle Grattan
Verified account
@michellegrattan
13m13 minutes ago
that they are putting leadership rules in now might make Malcolm even angrier
C@t:
If Murph’s scoop is on the money then that’s actually a sensible change.
But you gotta wonder why the party can’t act so swiftly to put measures in place to increase the number of women among their ranks.
Meanwhile in kitchens across Australia…
‘Fess,
Because it’s a male’s job that is being threatened? 😉
Andrew Probyn
Verified account
@andrewprobyn
2m2 minutes ago
Two thirds trigger was passed unamended by Liberal partyroom
Where is the horse?
It bolted ages ago.
Abbott won’t like the proposed changes. He’ll be no hope of a return.
C@tmomma @ #3113 Monday, December 3rd, 2018 – 5:39 pm
And potentially by a woman!
C@tmomma @ #3109 Monday, December 3rd, 2018 – 7:35 pm
And it will be applied retrospectively, making…Tony Abbott the rightful PM of Australia. 🙂
Confessions,
If Morrison was confident he was safe this would not be happening now in the last week of the year and especially as the election is just five months away and there are very few sitting days ( courtesy of Morrison ) between now and that day.
This is a huge admission that he is shitting himself.
Cheers and a great night to you.
I’m going to guess it passed the party room… say, 43-40?
Whatever the rules might be changed to say, a PM not wanted by a majority of the party room, even if that majority is less than 2/3, is ultimately in an untenable position, as John Gorton understood when he failed to secure the confidence of his colleagues in 1971. The aim might be to deter people from even lobbying for change, but if a leader is really on the nose with colleagues, they will get him one way or another anyway, through time-honoured measures such as Cabinet Minister resignations and threats to cross the floor.
A better approach would be one which required a substantial notice to be provided for a spill motion or a leadership vote, weeks rather than minutes. That would ensure that voting wasn’t done in panic, and was informed by public opinion.
A broader problem is that all of the parties at various times in the last 20 years have, when choosing a leader, shown little interest in considering what skills are actually needed to do the job of Prime Minister. To often, inadequacy is only fully appreciated by colleagues once a dud is in the job (eg Mr Abbott). This makes it risky to lock duds in place.
ALP supporters might wish to contemplate how a rule like this might have worked had Mr Latham been elected in 2004 and then proceeded to go off his rocker.
I heard that at the meeting they gave Morrison a fiddle and a fire stick.
I dont like these leadership rule changes on either side. It’s a diminishing of the parliamentary system and a strengthening of the presidential style.
Congratulations Mr President!
doyley:
Yes the timing is telling. Monday of the final parliamentary sitting week for the year.
This move does make sense. They want to tell the electorate that, if they vote for Scummo they will get him for the next three years … no, wait, maybe that’s not such a great idea.
Jolyon Wagg @ #3008 Monday, December 3rd, 2018 – 6:01 pm
Wearing gaudy regalia,
you’ll find plenty of genitalia
on the Mammalia
near the dahlia
behind the paraphernalia
at the bacchanalia
in Australia.
They most probably are doing this as a stunt to say to voters…..look….we’ve changed….vote for us….and to stop Labor attack ads saying along the lines …” When you vote for the LNP can you be sure it won’t be Abbott as PM”……
PuffyTMD
in keeping with the political nature of the blog could you work in ‘Michaelia ‘ ?
Wait…
The motion just said the leader elected at a Federal Election? WTF would you do this now in that case?
Teri Otoole
@terifaaa
13m13 minutes ago
Solidarity, change the rules, not solid leadership , #westandwithworkers #ITUC18
Katharine Murphy
Verified account @murpharoo
15m15 minutes ago
Hey @TurnbullMalcolm .. does this mean you get your old job back? #auspol
Do all the half-wits in the Liberal party room get a full vote or just half a vote?
That makes sense. I still think a leader who fails to get the party either elected or re-elected to govt would have a difficult case to prosecute for staying in the job. Esp if the loss is significant. Maybe not so much for close elections, ie Shorten after 2016.
Good old right wingers wanting to trash other people’s money:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/dec/03/milo-yiannopoulos-more-than-2m-in-debt-australian-promoters-documents-show
citizen @ #3126 Monday, December 3rd, 2018 – 4:56 pm
Would it make any difference?
Been off grid.
Anything happening?
If motion passed with a slim majority it means Scott came up with it to head off imenent challange & couldn’t risk Conman getting his calculator out again.
If the swing against the coalition next election is significant he will be gone.
And even if the swing isn’t so large, he may well still be deposed on the basis of incompetence.
There’s nothing stopping him getting rolled before an election….come on down Tony Abbott……lol
Is there a poll out tonight? Something spooked the Muppet
For those who wish to impress with “…alia” words, try this website:
https://findwords.info/ends/alia
Scotty struggling to explain what is going on
And if Scott Morrison loses the next election?
@Sceptic
That was my guess, Newspoll.
Only applies to a PM.
LOTOs can be rolled at any time
These new rule changes seems to suggest that Morriscum thinks he actually has a chance at the next election.
Further thought: This mean that it would be FAR easier to just call a motion of no confidence on the floor of the lower house, than it would be to actually get the PM kicked out via the party room.
The media pack are feral in this presser
Scotty says it’s a fair Dinkum decision