BludgerTrack: 54.5-45.5 to Labor

A devastating Newspoll strips the Coalition of almost all of its poll trend gains from two improved results last week.

In the week that brought them the Victorian election result, Newspoll has taken from the Coalition what Ipsos and Essential Research gave the week before in BludgerTrack, with Labor up 0.6% on two-party preferred and making seat projection gains in Victoria and South Australia. I’m afraid I’ve been too preoccupied/lazy to update the leadership trends, but Newspoll is unlikely to have changed them much. Other than that, full results from the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,307 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.5-45.5 to Labor”

  1. A Liberal source has told the ABC the meeting tonight is designed to make it harder to dislodge Scott Morrison as Liberal leader after the election #auspol

    Which is why they want to get rid of him before the election πŸ™‚

  2. James Scullin
    ‏@JamesScullin

    Meanwhile as the Prime Muppet tries to change the rules to protect himself from leadership challenges… #auspol #StableGovernment

  3. Did Dutton damage his arm practising the ventriloquist trick while Abbott was sitting on his knee?
    Is Dutton booked to fly into Canberra on Tuesday morning.

    I guess we find out tonight with Libspill motion

  4. Parliament is scheduled to return next February. If this is all about leadership after the next election why not hold the meeting next year and vote then ?

    All it shows is,despite the “unite and fight “rhetoric, a huge lack of any confidence that the coalition has any chance of being re elected. Not really uplifting for back benchers if your leader is shitting himself five months out from a election.

    I think there is a lot more to this than concern about post election. Complete bullshit actually.

    The internals within the liberals must be very very dark.

  5. Katharine Murphy
    ‏
    Verified account

    @murpharoo
    1m1 minute ago

    I’m told the proposal being discussed in the party room is no leadership challenges are allowed in government. That rule can only be changed by a 2/3 vote #auspol

    Just keeping you up to date with the latest guys. πŸ™‚

  6. Michelle Grattan made an astute observation:

    Michelle Grattan
    ‏
    Verified account

    @michellegrattan
    13m13 minutes ago

    that they are putting leadership rules in now might make Malcolm even angrier

  7. C@t:

    If Murph’s scoop is on the money then that’s actually a sensible change.

    But you gotta wonder why the party can’t act so swiftly to put measures in place to increase the number of women among their ranks.

  8. C@tmomma @ #3109 Monday, December 3rd, 2018 – 7:35 pm

    Katharine Murphy

    Verified account

    @murpharoo
    1m1 minute ago

    I’m told the proposal being discussed in the party room is no leadership challenges are allowed in government. That rule can only be changed by a 2/3 vote #auspol

    And it will be applied retrospectively, making…Tony Abbott the rightful PM of Australia. πŸ™‚

  9. Confessions,

    If Morrison was confident he was safe this would not be happening now in the last week of the year and especially as the election is just five months away and there are very few sitting days ( courtesy of Morrison ) between now and that day.

    This is a huge admission that he is shitting himself.

    Cheers and a great night to you.

  10. Whatever the rules might be changed to say, a PM not wanted by a majority of the party room, even if that majority is less than 2/3, is ultimately in an untenable position, as John Gorton understood when he failed to secure the confidence of his colleagues in 1971. The aim might be to deter people from even lobbying for change, but if a leader is really on the nose with colleagues, they will get him one way or another anyway, through time-honoured measures such as Cabinet Minister resignations and threats to cross the floor.

    A better approach would be one which required a substantial notice to be provided for a spill motion or a leadership vote, weeks rather than minutes. That would ensure that voting wasn’t done in panic, and was informed by public opinion.

    A broader problem is that all of the parties at various times in the last 20 years have, when choosing a leader, shown little interest in considering what skills are actually needed to do the job of Prime Minister. To often, inadequacy is only fully appreciated by colleagues once a dud is in the job (eg Mr Abbott). This makes it risky to lock duds in place.

    ALP supporters might wish to contemplate how a rule like this might have worked had Mr Latham been elected in 2004 and then proceeded to go off his rocker.

  11. I dont like these leadership rule changes on either side. It’s a diminishing of the parliamentary system and a strengthening of the presidential style.

  12. This move does make sense. They want to tell the electorate that, if they vote for Scummo they will get him for the next three years … no, wait, maybe that’s not such a great idea.

  13. They most probably are doing this as a stunt to say to voters…..look….we’ve changed….vote for us….and to stop Labor attack ads saying along the lines …” When you vote for the LNP can you be sure it won’t be Abbott as PM”……

  14. Katharine Murphy
    ‏Verified account @murpharoo
    15m15 minutes ago

    Hey @TurnbullMalcolm .. does this mean you get your old job back? #auspol

  15. James O’DohertyVerified account@jmodoh
    13m13 minutes ago
    BREAKING: Liberal partyroom passes new rules saying a leader elected at a general election can only be rolled with a two-thirds majority @SkyNewsAust

    That makes sense. I still think a leader who fails to get the party either elected or re-elected to govt would have a difficult case to prosecute for staying in the job. Esp if the loss is significant. Maybe not so much for close elections, ie Shorten after 2016.

  16. If motion passed with a slim majority it means Scott came up with it to head off imenent challange & couldn’t risk Conman getting his calculator out again.

  17. James O’DohertyVerified account@jmodoh
    2m2 minutes ago
    Scott Morrison says he will remain PM if he wins the next election – after the liberal party passed new rules to stop leadership coups against a sitting PM @SkyNewsAust

    If the swing against the coalition next election is significant he will be gone.

  18. These new rule changes seems to suggest that Morriscum thinks he actually has a chance at the next election.

    Further thought: This mean that it would be FAR easier to just call a motion of no confidence on the floor of the lower house, than it would be to actually get the PM kicked out via the party room.

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