BludgerTrack: 54.5-45.5 to Labor

A devastating Newspoll strips the Coalition of almost all of its poll trend gains from two improved results last week.

In the week that brought them the Victorian election result, Newspoll has taken from the Coalition what Ipsos and Essential Research gave the week before in BludgerTrack, with Labor up 0.6% on two-party preferred and making seat projection gains in Victoria and South Australia. I’m afraid I’ve been too preoccupied/lazy to update the leadership trends, but Newspoll is unlikely to have changed them much. Other than that, full results from the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,307 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.5-45.5 to Labor”

  1. @C@tmomma: “Immigrants usually become patriots”, as the saying goes – and it goes double for refugees. The Darfuri who came to Australia likely consider it Paradise, especially compared to the nightmares Khartoum inflicted upon their homeland, and I guarantee they’re determined that it should stay that way!

  2. Had an interesting convo with the Lib candidate for the seat at the polling booth on the weekend of the election. One thing he said was that he’d rather our Labor party candidate got up than any of the other supposedly independent candidates. I suppose he would say that. However, when I put to him that
    victoria simply would not buy the ‘lock ’em all up’ line being pushed by Guy and the Libs., he said he knew.
    I wonder whether he’s one of the so-called moderates who are being drowned out. Could be, I suppose, but then what power will they have in the Libs post Kroger?

  3. A couple of South Sudanese folk who are members of another branch in our electorate came to the celebratory bbq last weekend. Didn’t get a chance to talk to them though. Gotta say, they are really tall dudes. I mean really tall and thin.

  4. Harry “Snapper” Organs @ #3050 Monday, December 3rd, 2018 – 6:32 pm

    Had an interesting convo with the Lib candidate for the seat at the polling booth on the weekend of the election. One thing he said was that he’d rather our Labor party candidate got up than any of the other supposedly independent candidates. I suppose he would say that. However, when I put to him that
    victoria simply would not buy the ‘lock ’em all up’ line being pushed by Guy and the Libs., he said he knew.
    I wonder whether he’s one of the so-called moderates who are being drowned out. Could be, I suppose, but then what power will they have in the Libs post Kroger?

    That resonates with something I’m mulling over. I wonder how long it will take for the Liberals to rebuild the trust they’ve lost. Will it take one or two electoral cycles, or longer? A period ‘in the wilderness’ leaves the field open for permanently detaching existing voters from the liberal tribe and shepherding voters reaching voting age to non-liberal tribes.

    How to do that? Stable secure government that gives Australians pride in themselves again would be one way.

  5. What’s going on?

    Katharine MurphyVerified account@murpharoo
    17m17 minutes ago
    Second source confirms tonight’s meeting of the Liberal party is to change the rules to protect leaders from coups #auspol

  6. BREAKING (genui ely) According to Laura Tingle on 7.30: an extraordinary Liberal party room meeting on NOW to change leadership rules to shore up Morrison’s position.

  7. “What’s going on?

    Katharine MurphyVerified account@murpharoo
    17m17 minutes ago
    Second source confirms tonight’s meeting of the Liberal party is to change the rules to protect leaders from coups #auspol”

    The opening moves of libspill 2.0 – the quickening.

    There can be only one, Highlander!

    https://youtu.be/4AoOa-Fz2kw

  8. James O’DohertyVerified account@jmodoh
    8m8 minutes ago
    The liberal partyroom is holding an unscheduled meeting. I’m told it is about rules to protect the leader from coups. @SkyNewsAust

    If so, then does this mean there can’t be a snap change to JBishop before the election to save the furniture?

  9. The caption in The Guardian accompanying this photo was, ‘What could possibly go wrong?’

    I think we know the answer now. He may not even be the PM by tomorrow! 😆

  10. James O’DohertyVerified account@jmodoh
    2m2 minutes ago
    I’m told liberal partyroom is meeting to debate a proposal around thresholds required on votes about the party leader. @SkyNewsAust

  11. Doesn’t the party room meet tomorrow morning as per schedule? Why call this snap meeting tonight? Are the monkeypodistas out on manourvres?

    Could we all be waking up to Tony Abbott, PM tomorrow morning?

  12. Shorten Suite getting the drop:

    Shorten Suite

    Verified account

    @Shorten_Suite
    4m4 minutes ago

    BREAKING: Julie Bishop has just arrived at the emergency Liberal partyroom to change the leadership rules.

    36 mins late. Wonder why she wasn’t told..

    #auspol

  13. Lol… 2/3rds?

    Whats the likelihood of that rabble agreeing to it? AND if it doesn’t, how stupid would it make the PM look?

    I would imagine, not great and very.

  14. Do the Libs really want to elect their leader by giving the caucus 50% say and the party members 50%????
    Hell, they don’t even give the members any say in pre-selections. I think the technical term is “Cognitive Dissonance”

  15. Alice Workman

    Verified account

    @workmanalice
    8m8 minutes ago

    And of course Kevin Rudd when he was here last month at his book launch said they should do this and told Julie Bishop it should be called the “Bishop rule”.

    And she replied “you’re not being helpful Kevin.”

    Remember Robert Ball told us that JBish had been trailing her petticoat?

  16. Price and Bolt as expected pouring a big bucket of manure over Turnbull. Very bitter they are. Now inviting their listeners to do the same.

  17. Andrew Probyn

    Verified account

    @andrewprobyn
    17m17 minutes ago

    Breaking: Scott Morrison asking Libs to introduce a new threshold for a leadership spill … whereby two-thirds of partyroom would be required before knocking off a sitting leader.

    I still can’t understand what the rush is to do it tonight? With a Party Room meeting tomorrow.

  18. “25% of the vote for leader will be reserved for 2GB shock jocks and Sky “after dark” panel members.”

    With another 25% reserved for Rupert.

  19. Aha!

    ABC Politics

    Verified account

    @politicsabc

    A Liberal source has told the ABC the meeting tonight is designed to make it harder to dislodge Scott Morrison as Liberal leader after the election #auspol

  20. Isn’t the meeting tomorrow the coalition meeting, ie Libs and Nats, whereas this issue is a Libs only issue, therefore only Libs attend?

  21. A Liberal source has told the ABC the meeting tonight is designed to make it harder to dislodge Scott Morrison as Liberal leader after the election #auspol

    I don’t see how. I can’t imagine how it would be hard to get 2/3 of the partyroom to agree that his performance has been abysmal and someone more competent will be needed after the election.

  22. Baja hahaha

    More popcorn than a truck can handle!

    I doubt the public would like this move while in Government, shows how pathetic, insane they are.

  23. Good evening all,

    Interesting developments tonight in Canberra.

    Why tonight ? The last week for the year and the government is already drowning in self analysis drowing everything else out.

    Why tonight with almost two months until the liberal party room sits again Canberra ?

    Morrison must be very very worried and in a very very weak position to do this. It smells of desperation.

    They just raise the bar of stupidity time after time. God bless them.

    Cheers.

  24. About 1 voter in 50 would have heard of Anning. Of these, at least half would be shocked by his views and would place him last on their ballots. Of the rest, most will not distinguish him from ON or the other loonies. He will lose his deposit if he runs.

  25. James O’DohertyVerified account@jmodoh
    7m7 minutes ago
    Liberal senators have all just left the unscheduled partyroom meeting to head to a division. All tight lipped on what’s going on inside. @SkyNewsAust

  26. This is a bad sign, you’d think they’d be considering a xmas day election at this rate. And having scomo need 2/3’s well that may only be 20 people after the next election.

    But seriously I think we all know shortens going to get the next one. But it’s just a matter of by how much. And i kind of worry that we’ll have one of the abbot peers. Mr. stop the boats being a lazy oppo leader and not doing any policy work.
    I really don’t think a repeat of abbot tactics will be good for the country.

  27. “I still can’t understand what the rush is to do it tonight? With a Party Room meeting tomorrow.”

    Perhaps there are some pretty dire rumours about Morrison’s PMship being under immediate threat?

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