BludgerTrack: 54.5-45.5 to Labor

A devastating Newspoll strips the Coalition of almost all of its poll trend gains from two improved results last week.

In the week that brought them the Victorian election result, Newspoll has taken from the Coalition what Ipsos and Essential Research gave the week before in BludgerTrack, with Labor up 0.6% on two-party preferred and making seat projection gains in Victoria and South Australia. I’m afraid I’ve been too preoccupied/lazy to update the leadership trends, but Newspoll is unlikely to have changed them much. Other than that, full results from the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,307 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.5-45.5 to Labor”

  1. Should be fun!

    Tomorrow brings with it the party room meetings, where I am sure we will be told the Liberal party came together and sang Kumbaya and then spoke of a strong economy and job growth and infrastructure and getting on with the job outside the Canberra bubble.

    Nothing to see here, everything is fine.

  2. Late Riser @ #3003 Monday, December 3rd, 2018 – 6:23 pm

    Vogon Poet @ #2975 Monday, December 3rd, 2018 – 5:01 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #3080 Monday, December 3rd, 2018 – 4:15 pm

    Apparently, gentalia is the only word that rhymes with Australia.

    you’ll find plenty of genitalia
    at a bacchanalia
    in australia

    you’ll find plenty of genitalia
    on the mammalia
    near the dahlia
    at a bacchanalia
    in australia

    I believe that collective poetry is our future……………

  3. without failure
    you’ll find plenty of genitalia
    on the mammalia
    near the dahlia
    behind the paraphernalia
    at a bacchanalia
    in australia

  4. C@tmomma @ #3007 Monday, December 3rd, 2018 – 3:28 pm

    Zoidlord @ #2997 Monday, December 3rd, 2018 – 6:18 pm

    @C@tmomma

    bahahahaha…

    I lived in Sydney for over a year, one time there was a an hour and half delay.

    You’ve arrived in Sydney when you’ve had to wait over an hour for a delayed train. 🙂

    Pfffttt!!! You’ve arrived in Sydney when you have to wait an hour for a train because the 4 that were supposed to arrive during that time have all been cancelled, or just sailed straight past your station despite it being a designated stop.

  5. Abdul Aziz Adam
    ‏@Abdulaziz_Ada

    From yesterday till now we have three people attempted suicide & one collapsed bcz of his heart, he was in Brisbane & they brought him back to Manus. Two other refugees kicked out of the Lorengau hospital bcz the doctors said we don’t treat ppl with mental illness only physical.

  6. The Turnbull’s have been busy …

    Alex Turnbull has publicly donated to an online activist group which has been targeting mainstream media organisations by threatening their advertisers with consumer boycotts on the same day his father called for Scott Morrison to bear the brunt of the Liberal Party’s “brand damage” with an early election.

    The Singapore-based hedge fund manager tweeted this afternoon that he had donated $500 to Sleeping Giants Oz, a group which aims “to make racism, bigotry, and misogyny less profitable” by calling on its supporters to publicly boycott companies who advertise with offending programs, to ultimately get those businesses to stop advertising spending during those timeslots.

  7. Cud Chewer says:
    Monday, December 3, 2018 at 6:43 pm
    I don’t min a new thread…

    So long as we can have a (compulsory) separate thread for all the fecking boring cricket

    I say
    I don’t like cricket oh no
    I love it
    I don’t like cricket no no
    I love it
    Don’t you walk thru my words
    You got to show some respect
    Don’t you walk thru my words
    ‘Cause you ain’t heard me out yet

  8. GG

    You missed a classic limerick:

    There was an old man from Australia
    Who painted his arse like a dahlia.
    The colours were fine,
    Likewise the design,
    The aroma, alas, was a failure.

  9. I predict Fraser Anning will be re-elected to the Senate, I am sorry to break the news however I estimate that about 10% of the Australians share his White Nationalist views, that would be higher in Queensland.

    When I read his maiden speech this stuff which was respectable in 1950’s and 1960’s Australia.

  10. @Tristo: There are two problems with your take on the matter of Senator Anning:

    1) He’s competing for the white-supremacist vote with One Nation, with Bernardi’s band of lunatics and with Katter’s slightly less-crazy band of lunatics(1); and
    2) He’s operating on a shoestring electoral budget, without the backing of any party’s infrastructure (volunteer lists, professional staff to check that all the boxes are ticked, etc.).

    He won’t win a term in his own right.

    (1) I know that only PHON is (mostly) open about being white supremacist; Bernardi and Katter have blown enough dog-whistles to get the message across however.

  11. Mr UpNorth
    As much as I love locomotion-especially a beast called a Beyer-Garratt, it appears you have a one-track mind. Please don’t try to railroad WB into changing anything on this blog. By all means, pursue that particular train-of-thought somewhere else, or branch out on your own, preferably under your own steam. I don’t mean to sound that I’m all steamed up over your proposal, but due to the current Government running like a driverless locomotive along a branch line that’s due to be shut down because it doesn’t go anywhere, I expect that WB will gently shunt your idea to a holding area , as there’s going to be one hell of a train wreck happening soon.
    The PB site is not a platform for us to endulge in our childhood fantasies. (I suspect you wanted to be a traindriver when you grew up ).
    You may feel a little tender, but please understand , your fellow passengers on this blog do care,
    ‘cos we all go off the rails occasionally. Cheer up, there’s always another way to express yourself.

  12. @Matt

    These voters are happy to change their vote and Fraser Anning has a lot of publicity now. Also Pauline Hanson is not on the Senate ballot in Queensland at this election coming up.

    I know White supremacists and they love Fraser Anning a lot.

  13. “there was a young girl from Australia
    “who went to a fancy-dress ball as a dahlia
    “the petals unfurled
    “and revealed to the world
    “that the dress, as a dress, was a failure”

    I applaud the limerick writer’s determination not to use ‘genitalia’ inter alia

  14. If Fraser Anning pays Glenn Druery $50000 will GD be able to finagle a successful Senate bid for Fraser Anning? Or is it harder with a full Senate election?

  15. Malcolm Roberts will out crazy Anning for the 6th senate slot in Queensland. Labor will out progress Waters for the 5th spot. Result – 2LNP, 3 Labor, 1 ON.

  16. C@tmomma @ #3026 Monday, December 3rd, 2018 – 3:07 pm

    If Fraser Anning pays Glenn Druery $50000 will GD be able to finagle a successful Senate bid for Fraser Anning? Or is it harder with a full Senate election?

    Druery is not a player federally as Parties don’t dictate where their preferences go anymore.

    Also don’t forget that mental giant, Malcolm Roberts! 🙂

  17. It isn’t direct white supremacy in the direct sense of ‘we are superior’ but the whole LNP, including the moderates have prosecuted a false, misleading and deeply racists ‘African gangs’ scam on the Australian public. It is well beyond dog whistles, it is the Government, including moderate, centralist Turnbull, actually using the same tools as white supremacists. The only omitted the very last ‘we are better’ step but it is implied.

    To argue anything else is ridiculous. IMHO what Hanson has done for racism and white supremacy (largely because she is so very stupid) is much less successful, and much less damaging to Australia than the fake African gangs racism of Turnbull and the other moderate, centrist LNP types.

  18. Sydney’s rail system has improved over the decades.

    Going back a few decades, the trains basically arrived and departed at random intervals at about 70% of the timetable frequency and the system would collapse when it rained – a not infrequent occurrence in Sydney though we don’t tell the tourists. No one knew when the next train would arrive, least of all station staff.

    However, improvements over the years under governments of both colours, mainly Labor, meant that by the 2010s, you’d be surprised if your train was late, even in wet weather. Indicators provided real time information.

    Things seem to be falling apart recently. Yesterday in Sydney it was windy – not a cyclone, just the sort of wind you expect from time to time – and the network fell apart.

  19. Thanks, guys! Ruin my day, my week, the rest of the year by bringing up the spectre of Malcolm Roberts returning to federal parliament! 😆

  20. Onebobsworth says:
    Monday, December 3, 2018 at 6:58 pm

    I actually have been a train driver (sugar cane locomotive)- not a childhood dream though!!

  21. WWP @7:14PM. You are 100% right. The Victorian Opposition, with the support of the Federal Government, especially Dutton, knew exactly what they were doing. The maths is simple – about 10% of the Australian electorate is racist and they were signalling (nudge nudge wink wink) to this minority.

  22. Can I say, that I met a few South Sudanese Australians in NSW Parliament House when I went there once for a function. They were so polite! It also scared me how quickly they had adapted to their new home, as so many of them had moved into the professions and they are already eyeing politics, I can assure you of that!

    You may not have noticed but I did see that, in Dan Andrews victory media speech to the faithful in Melbourne, there were more than 1 or 2 of them in the audience. It’s a smart move to get them onside too, I reckon. They will make fierce campaigners.

  23. C@tmomma @ #3045 Monday, December 3rd, 2018 – 7:24 pm

    Can I say, that I met a few South Sudanese Australians in NSW Parliament House when I went there once for a function. They were so polite! It also scared me how quickly they had adapted to their new home, as so many of them had moved into the professions and they are already eyeing politics, I can assure you of that!

    You may not have noticed but I did see that, in Dan Andrews victory media speech to the faithful in Melbourne, there were more than 1 or 2 of them in the audience. It’s a smart move to get them onside too, I reckon. They will make fierce campaigners.

    I am, you are, we are Australians!

  24. @Steve777 7:20PM: Sadly for the Libs, they forgot that most States (esp. Victoria!) have about a ~15%-20% actively anti-racist vote, and they heard those signals too!

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