BludgerTrack: 54.5-45.5 to Labor

A devastating Newspoll strips the Coalition of almost all of its poll trend gains from two improved results last week.

In the week that brought them the Victorian election result, Newspoll has taken from the Coalition what Ipsos and Essential Research gave the week before in BludgerTrack, with Labor up 0.6% on two-party preferred and making seat projection gains in Victoria and South Australia. I’m afraid I’ve been too preoccupied/lazy to update the leadership trends, but Newspoll is unlikely to have changed them much. Other than that, full results from the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,307 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.5-45.5 to Labor”

  1. @CC:

    “Buses are absolutely not faster than well implemented light rail. P1 as usual is wrong.”

    Buses – being not tied to rails – have far more flexibility. Buses are quicker and move more people than original trams which were one carriage, which is why the tram networks were disconnected in many cities in the first place.

    ‘Light rail’ covers a wide range of rail services. ‘Well designed’ light rail depends on a number of variables. ‘Light rail’ can work well when it is largely seperated from other modes of rapid transport, OR runs down purpose built boulevards, OR in wide back streets, OR where other forms of road transport use is severely restricted.

    However, it gets to the point where you start saying WTF! Go onto the NSW Government website and have a look at the light rail test video and the size of the thing they want to ruin down public streets: It is even longer than what I initially posted. Then ask yourself whether it would have been better to run things that size through an underground metro (probably only twice the cost, but with twice the capacity). It’s a no brainer.

  2. Cud Chewer says:
    Monday, December 3, 2018 at 4:52 pm
    Isn’t that like “Genitalia” is Italy’s national airline?

    “Cardinal Sin” used to be the top Cleric in the Phillipines

  3. Cud Chewer @ #2930 Monday, December 3rd, 2018 – 4:35 pm

    Buses are absolutely not faster than well implemented light rail. P1 as usual is wrong.

    Have you ever used the Western Sydney light rail?

    From NSW Trip Planner, Dulwich Hill to Chinatown (both Light Rail stops!) – travelling right now (peak hour!)

    Bus – 40 minutes.
    Light Rail – 47 minutes.
    Heavy Rail – 41 minutes.

  4. Andrew I’d have preferred a metro. But..

    The southeast portion of the light rail has probably cost about a billion. (The CBD portion being far more expensive per Km).

    A Central to Maroubra metro would have set you back about $5 billion.

    You’d have to wait another decade.

    The southeast extension of Metro West will complement the light rail and take dome load off it.

    As for speed. Well designed light rail – dedicated corridor, few crossings – IS faster than your typical bus in shared traffic. Light rail is also more comfortable. It makes sense on high volume routes.

    Also we are soon going to see “trackless trams”. They will add some flexibility

  5. Yes I have used the IWLR and I’m the first to say it is slow.

    P1 uses this as ‘proof’ that ALL light rail is slower than buses. This is the kind of idiotic schoolboy logic one expects from P1. Its not just wrong, its insultingly wrong.

  6. 😆 From Amy’s blog
    .
    Michelle Landry has updated her interests’ register.

    The Queensland MP has been gifted a “framed portrait of Sir Joh Bjelke-Petersen”

    Value: Unknown

  7. “A Central to Maroubra metro would have set you back about $5 billion.

    You’d have to wait another decade.”

    As a strong labor man and a personal friend of Nathan Rees it is my melancholy conclusion that the delay for a central to (La Parouse) metro is entirely due to his panic. It would be opening just about now if he didn’t lose his head. Stage 1 of the metro (rouse hill to Epping train station) would have opened 5 years ago, stage 2 (Epping to St James) would have opened in 2016 (allowing for the 2 year delay while consideration paused during the GFC before Rees or KK grew a pair and said ‘fuck it’ we can boorow the money at 2% interest rates and get it done – with binding contracts enetered in mid 2010 with construction underway before the 2011 election wipe out).

    Gladys’s pet project just compounds the original sin.

  8. Cud Chewer @ #2962 Monday, December 3rd, 2018 – 5:04 pm

    Yes I have used the IWLR and I’m the first to say it is slow.

    P1 uses this as ‘proof’ that ALL light rail is slower than buses. This is the kind of idiotic schoolboy logic one expects from P1. Its not just wrong, its insultingly wrong.

    Now you are just making stuff up, as usual. We were not talking “all light rail”. The subject under discussion was “Sydney Light Rail”, as you well know. Here is what you said about it:

    However it still pisses me off to see people making claims that you could continue to run buses instead. People who say this are idiots.

    When you say something as stupid as that, you should expect to be picked up on it. I pointed out that buses were faster. Which they are, as I have shown, and as anyone who has actually used the Sydney light rail system would have known. Buses also have numerous other advantages over light rail, which you conveniently ignore.

    The Sydney light rail system cannot replace the bus system. It can barely even compete with it.

    As is so often the case, you have been shown to be wrong, and – again as is so often the case – your response is to resort to insult rather than admit it and move on.

  9. RatesAnalyst:

    “Hope to have time to write a full answer later. But look up “sterilised” vs “unsterilised” interventions…”

    Indeed – also I think the passage of time has got something to do with it – the bonds are in the (open) market for quite some time, and that fact (information) indicates various things about the Jap Govt

  10. Dear Mr William Bowe

    One day sir could we please have a stand alone dedicated thread for all things rail? Heavy rail, light rail trams hell maybe even buses. Please sir can that be my Christmas wish?

    Yours sincerely

    Mr Upnorth

  11. I enjoy the light rail discussions. I enjoy it because it makes me feel superior. As a Melbournian I can laugh at all cities without them. Fools. HAHAHAH. F#ck Sydney.

  12. 7 News Sydney promo. “Could we be heading for an early federal election? Hear the latest in the Liberal civil war.”

    Ideal media narrative for Labor’s sound and sane alternative government in waiting.

  13. As Ratsak mentioned, surely an independent is going to knock off Kelly. If the disappointed pre-selection front-runner stands as a Lib Independent, surely he will win by the length of the straight. Anyone else who might knock him off?

    I’m well into my second bottle of wine but I’m pretty sure I’m not drunk enough to get my argument 180 degrees arse about like this yet. 😉

    Kelly will lose Hughes

    Labor will win Hughes.

  14. Ratsak

    I might have a few sherbet’s tonight. 10 hour flight back to Oz. Can’t sleep on those things. Best to enjoy a drop and imagine the week ahead for the Tories. Wonder if they have popcorn?

  15. I don’t buy the story that Dutton injured his arm helping his mother.
    There are far too many holes in that yarn.
    (a) Dutton helping anyone but himself? Really?
    (b) Dutton lifting a finger, let alone an arm?
    (c) Dutton has a MOTHER? Really?
    (d) The timing is bodgie. Just when he faces S44 scrutiny and Vic election wreck blowback, he scarpers.

  16. Malcolm Turnbull signed a letter endorsing Craig Kelly as “one of the government’s most committed contributors on the floor of the parliament”, declaring he “looked forward to” the backbencher being “re-elected as part of our strong coalition team”.

    It’s understood the letter, which has been seen by The Daily Telegraph and is signed off with Mr Turnbull’s signature, was given to the NSW State Executive in May as part of Mr Kelly’s preselection pack.

    MMMM it’s getting even more exciting.

  17. Annastacia Palaszczuk
    ‏Verified account @AnnastaciaMP
    4m4 minutes ago

    Just had the latest meeting of the Qld Disaster Management Committee.
    Things are improving, but it’s not over yet.
    A huge effort. Eg 11,000,000 litres of water and fire suppressant used so far.

  18. Jim Molan fighting old battles – tweets this…

    Just saw Fiona Scott claim on @SkyNewsAust that the preselection rules in NSW are the ones I fought for. This is untrue and I have told her so personally and publicly. I fought to change the system from the undemocratic, factionalised system that is in place. #auspol

    And

    This is not democratic reform. The current constitution – the Bennelong motion – was introduced by factional interests and maintained the existing power structures in NSW Libs. #auspol

  19. Upnorth @ #2982 Monday, December 3rd, 2018 – 6:04 pm

    Malcolm Turnbull signed a letter endorsing Craig Kelly as “one of the government’s most committed contributors on the floor of the parliament”, declaring he “looked forward to” the backbencher being “re-elected as part of our strong coalition team”.

    It’s understood the letter, which has been seen by The Daily Telegraph and is signed off with Mr Turnbull’s signature, was given to the NSW State Executive in May as part of Mr Kelly’s preselection pack.

    MMMM it’s getting even more exciting.

    1. Things changed after May.
    2. Turnbull was supporting democracy in the Liberal Party not an individual candidate yesterday.

  20. @Sohar: Surely you jest! I wish Dr Phelps a long and fruitful career in Parliament – better her than a Liberal in that (formerly) blue-ribbon seat!

    As for refugee bills – I see no reason why Labor shouldn’t back it, providing it’s as advertised. Dutton should never have had the power to veto medical transfers to mainland Australia, and it’s something I’d like to see removed from his, or any Minister’s, hands. If the doctors say that a detainee – of whatever kind – is seriously ill and medical necessity dictates a change of environs, let their judgment on the matter stand.

  21. VP

    you’ll find plenty of genitalia
    at a bacchanalia
    in australia

    GG

    Bit of a stretch! But, OK.

    Actually, I think it’s a failure!

  22. What? More evidence that Trumble was a piss weak pissant that did all he could to keep the loons from rolling his sorry arse?

    Surely there comes a point where the prosecution’s case is so overwhelmingly proven the judge sits them down so we don’t waste any more time.

  23. According to Greg Sheridan, Jim Molan is one of ‘the best and brightest’ in the Liberal Party – spends his time on the public payroll as a Senator arguing the minutiae of NSW Liberal Party rules

  24. @nath

    I agree, Sydney is is shit on Rail network.

    Considering it’s like the major hub, major port of Australia….. There is no Bullet Train to other capitals, expensive car parking, and if something fucks up, then shit trouble.

  25. Malcolm will be pleased…

    Move over, Waleed Aly’s scathing monologues. There’s a new man in town.

    Former Sky News host Peter van Onselen has been appointed Network Ten’s political editor, the broadcaster announced on Monday.

  26. Zoidlord @ #2991 Monday, December 3rd, 2018 – 6:14 pm

    @nath

    I agree, Sydney is is shit on Rail network.

    Considering it’s like the major hub, major port of Australia….. There is no Bullet Train to other capitals, expensive car parking, and if something fucks up, then shit trouble.

    And we like it like that! It keeps the Victorians and Queenslanders away. 🙂

  27. It is not just Japan that illustrates the point that it is operationally unnecessary and not very meaningful for a currency issuer to issue bonds in its own currency. There are many dozens of countries that have adopted this voluntary and rather silly practice.

    If the government wants people to be able to save in the form of a zero risk, interest-bearing asset, it can make term deposits available to people. There is no need for a tradeable debt instrument.

    We don’t even really need the RBA. The Authorized Deposit-Taking Institutions could each have an account with the Treasury. The Treasury could spend by crediting these accounts and tax by debiting these accounts.

    The Treasury and the RBA work together so closely to run the payments system and execute fiscal and monetary policy that they may as well be the same institution.

  28. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/03/coal-coal-coal-and-soaring-emissions-as-a-liberal-i-have-had-enough

    Liberal voters will align with independent Liberals who have real world experience, who will put the interests of their electorates first and who support:
    * tight fiscal responsibility so the country operates within its means
    * strong border controls, backed by a compassionate approach to the treatment of refugees
    * free enterprise and small business, balanced with appropriate regulation to ensure competition is fair
    * transparency, integrity and trust; and
    * real action on climate change that is consistent with what the science is demanding

    My observations:
    * Yates is a tribal voter.
    * Yates wants “independent Liberal” candidates to stand for election.
    * Yates has neatly, though maybe unconsciously, summarised the differences between the Coalition and Labor.
    * Yates wants Labor policies, but done by a Liberal government. (It’s a Mac vs PC thing.)

    Q&A:
    Q: What is an “independent Liberal”?
    A: Someone like Phelps.

    Q: What is “real world” experience?
    A: Someone like Oliver Yates, although he probably means someone who isn’t a career politician.

    Q: Does Oliver Yates echo the views of other tribal Liberals?
    A: Maybe.

    Q: Would Oliver Yates vote Labor at the next election?
    A: Yes, just this once, though he might prefer a “proper liberal” like Phelps.

    Q: Is this an opportunity to permanently win over some Liberal voters to Labor?
    A: Maybe.

    Conclusions:
    At the next election Oliver Yates and other like him want to vote for someone like Phelps, but if that isn’t an option there will be a swing from Liberal straight to Labor, especially if the Labor candidate is a fresh face who campaigns on the issues raised by Yates. It is a once in a generation election. It won’t happen again.

  29. Upnorth @ #2993 Monday, December 3rd, 2018 – 6:17 pm

    Malcolm will be pleased…

    Move over, Waleed Aly’s scathing monologues. There’s a new man in town.

    Former Sky News host Peter van Onselen has been appointed Network Ten’s political editor, the broadcaster announced on Monday.

    Aly is a Turnbull Liberal.

    His scathing monologues were always against the RWNJs and not Turnbull personally.

    They were written and endorsed by Turnbull.

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