BludgerTrack: 54.5-45.5 to Labor

A devastating Newspoll strips the Coalition of almost all of its poll trend gains from two improved results last week.

In the week that brought them the Victorian election result, Newspoll has taken from the Coalition what Ipsos and Essential Research gave the week before in BludgerTrack, with Labor up 0.6% on two-party preferred and making seat projection gains in Victoria and South Australia. I’m afraid I’ve been too preoccupied/lazy to update the leadership trends, but Newspoll is unlikely to have changed them much. Other than that, full results from the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,307 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.5-45.5 to Labor”

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  1. A sad story lot’s of mums and dads badly burnt.

    At its peak in August last year, RCR Tomlinson was valued at almost $1 billion.

    Since McGrath Nicol was appointed, the company’s workforce has reduced to 1400, with most of the job losses coming from the infrastructure arm, which includes its solar contracts.

    Employee entitlements excluding redundancy total $32 million. Under the Corporations Act, employees are paid first, followed by secured creditors, unsecured creditors and shareholders.
    RCR creditors — who is owed what

    Trade creditors (subcontractors and suppliers) — $100-250 million
    Secured creditors — $235 million
    Unsecured bond issuers — $113 million
    2,800 employee entitlements totalling $32 million, excluding redundancy

    McGrath Nicol partner Jason Preston told creditors initial investigations revealed the company’s collapse was largely caused by problems with its solar farm developments, which left the business exposed to a number of risks particularly if there were project delays.

    Burned by move into solar

    The company, which had been a successful engineering firm for 120 years — predominantly in the mining and resources industry — got into financial trouble after making an aggressive move into the solar industry.

    RCR ran at the solar power movement hard and has been involved in building farms across the country, but it was a $57 million write-down on the value of two of its Queensland projects that burned it.

  2. Upnorth,
    If only RCRTomlinson had been able to hang on until a higher Renewables target came into play. Hopefully. Next year.

  3. Upnorth @ #2877 Monday, December 3rd, 2018 – 3:22 pm

    Taiwan too – phasing out dangerous Nuclear Power stations and investing in coal generation. Taipower is actively seeking stable coal supplies from Queensland and NSW Black coal producers.

    Oh good. By all means close down the safest and least GHG emitting form of electricity generation in favor of the most dangerous and most GHG emitting 🙁

    Coal electricity generation kills 60 people per TWh per year. Nuclear kills 0.04 **

    **Source – https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2011/03/deaths-per-twh-by-energy-source.html – now a few years old, but probably still a reasonable guide.

  5. @Upnorth

    Sounds like bad management.

    Alot of the old style companies that been around for ages, are suddenly not able to do the new stuff.

    My dad worked for CompAir, now owned by US company – Gardner Denver.

    Many jobs were lost.

  6. So is the NSW Government being held to ransom to the tune of $1.5 billion (or so) of taxpayers money by the sport that seems to be characterised by domestic violence, public brawling, public drunkenness and nudity, homophobia, urination in your own mouth and simulated sex with a dogs (for starters)?
    Just wanted to know I was on the right page…

  7. Diogenes @ #2898 Monday, December 3rd, 2018 – 2:22 pm

    Based on the investigation into Hussar, she should be managed out of being a MP as she doesn’t have the skills or temperament to do it. You can’t ignore all the findings against her.

    Maybe. But based on that same investigation and the deliberate leaking of it to the media, the cadre of people who fabricated sensational sexual harassment claims against her should also be expelled. They did a lot worse than simply being bad at management skills. And they did it intentionally, too.

  9. Peg and Rex are dangerous to democratic country:

    Rob Oakeshott
    ‏ @RobOakeshott1
    33s34 seconds ago

    Genuine question: anyone who knows a member of NSW LNP – can you ask them why they renew their membership if they are now treated as excess baggage on decision-making? What’s the point?
    0 replies 1 retweet 1 like

  11. Pete EVANS‏ @911CORLEBRA777

    China has now effectively taken control of the South China Sea. They’ve set up a anti ship missile & SAM grid with interlocking arcs of fire to threaten Allied civil & military air & surface assets should they choose to do so in a crisis

    AMTI‏Verified account @AsiaMTI

    AMTI charts the extent of China’s radar, SAM, anti-ship missile, and fighter jet coverage in the South China Sea

    MORE DETAIL/MAP : http://cs.is/2yIMZ7U

  14. Just catching up – but back on pages 52 & 53 of this thread a light rail ‘debate’ broke out between CC, P1 and Guytaur.

    I just want to throw a couple of points in:

    1. The Eastern Suburbs light rail threatens to be a disaster, even (if) when the contract and teething issues are properly ironed out and the thing is up and running. Throwing in a veritable train – nearly twice the length of the inner west metro and quadruple the length of a Melbourne double carriage tram – onto public, narrow and shared roads will both grind traffic (including the light rail) to a vertual holt in peak hours but also pose an incredible safety threat to all other transport modes. I was in Addis Adiba this time last year with my transport planning mate (who was actually involved in the feasibility planning for the eastern suburbs light rail project). He was keen to point out the train sets on the light rail that the Chinese Governemnt has built that runs from one side of Addis to the other as being basically the same in size as what Gladys wants to run down Anzac Parade and the back streets of Surry Hills. It. Is. Batshit. Crazy. Thankfully, the Chinese were sensible enough to have their light rail project running largely off road.

    2. The Innner West light rail is no white elephant. Ever since KK gave the green light to extend it to Dulwich Hill (and Gladys built it, regrettably with out the parralel green way) it has been running a near capacity. My family regularly use it to acccess many of the points of interest on the way into town. It is our preferred mode of transport when going into the extended Darling Harbour entertainment precinct. It works because 99% of it is seperated from road and the last 500M has a decimated light rail only transit past the capitol theatre and onto central station. There are ion,y two draw-backs. Firstly, the rolling stock (5 small segmented carriages) couple be replaced with the expanded train set types – similar to the one Gladys wasn’t to run down the middle of public road in the eastern suburbs (because it is either off road or seperate from other road transport users). Secondly, the last 500M between Dulwich Grove and Dulwich Hill stops is only a single carriage way. This means that the minimum train separation times is no lower than 8 minutes, whereas there is now demand for 3-4 minute services at peak times: these could be acheived if that stretch of track was made a dual carriage way.

    3. The Eastern Sububs light rail should have been a metro. Indeed it was Morris Iemma’s idea to make the north west metro continue on from its initial planned terminus at St James Station (ultising the disused train tunnels) underground to Whitlam Square, Taylor Square, Moore Park etc all the way to La Parouse. If Nathan Rees didn’t panic and cancel that project (remember when he alloacated $5billion out of the $12 billion in a five minute ‘butchers paper’ brain storming effort way back when to build the wrong part of the metro first?) but committed to build Rouse Hill to Epping first, then after the dust of the GFC settled he could have borrowed the rest of the money to built it all the way to La Parouse in about 2010. The thing would be opening just about now. Alas.

  15. No comment needed..Trump on climate report…

    DAWSEY: You said yesterday when you were leaving that you were skeptical of a climate change report that the government had done. Can you just explain why you’re skeptical of that report?

    TRUMP: One of the problems that a lot of people like myself — we have very high levels of intelligence, but we’re not necessarily such believers. You look at our air and our water, and it’s right now at a record clean. But when you look at China and you look at parts of Asia and when you look at South America, and when you look at many other places in this world, including Russia, including — just many other places — the air is incredibly dirty. And when you’re talking about an atmosphere, oceans are very small. And it blows over and it sails over. I mean, we take thousands of tons of garbage off our beaches all the time that comes over from Asia. It just flows right down the Pacific, it flows, and we say where does this come from. And it takes many people to start off with.

  19. Unpopular opinion:

    Any legislation that cannot get 25% of the HoR or Senate to sign onto, should not be debated or considered in either house. Full Stop.

    Any legislation that can get 40% of either chamber to sign onto should be properly debated, min 4 hours each house, within a month.

  20. Andrew_Earlwood @ #2914 Monday, December 3rd, 2018 – 4:10 pm

    My family regularly use it to acccess many of the points of interest on the way into town. It is our preferred mode of transport when going into the extended Darling Harbour entertainment precinct.

    I can agree with this. As I said earlier, I mostly used the light rail when showing people around Sydney. It’s very slow, but very scenic.

    I no longer live in Sydney, of course – but my kids do, and they do not use the light rail for commuting to and from work, despite both of them living near one station on the light rail, and working near another.

    Buses and heavy rail are faster.

  21. As Ratsak mentioned, surely an independent is going to knock off Kelly. If the disappointed pre-selection front-runner stands as a Lib Independent, surely he will win by the length of the straight. Anyone else who might knock him off?

  22. @MsRebeccaRobins
    2h2 hours ago

    #qt #auspol woah hearing a Vol Firefighter in QLD has had their Centrelink payments cut by Sarina Russo because they were saving their community and forgot their appt so russo cut him off get that @ScottMorrisonMP , @billshortenmp ?

  23. Rob Oakeshott makes a very good point. Why would you be a member of the liberal party (or any party for that matter) if the prime reason you join is to have a say in electing representatives, is denied you?

  24. antonbruckner11 @ #2914 Monday, December 3rd, 2018 – 12:22 pm

    As Ratsak mentioned, surely an independent is going to knock off Kelly. If the disappointed pre-selection front-runner stands as a Lib Independent, surely he will win by the length of the straight. Anyone else who might knock him off?

    I think you’ll find Ratsak was saying he thought Labor would knock off Kelly and an independent wasn’t in the race as he considered it a Red on Blue contest. 🙂

  25. Henry @ #2923 Monday, December 3rd, 2018 – 4:28 pm

    Rob Oakeshott makes a very good point. Why would you be a member of the liberal party (or any party for that matter) if the prime reason you join is to have a say in electing representatives, is denied you?

    Perhaps the Liberals should put up a sign up on their office – “F#ck off we’re full!”

  26. Andrew Earlwood.

    The southeast light rail is on dedicated corridor except where it crosses traffic and this is done in a controlled fashion with traffic lights. It won’t bring traffic to a halt. The key intersection at Anzac and Alison is being changed to continuous flow design so that the light rail shares the same phase as the through car traffic without crossing turning traffic.

    https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/projects/sydney-inner/alexandria-moore-park-connectivity-upgrade/alexandria-moore-park-update-1706.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwixvpXW9oLfAhVWVH0KHevfBBAQFjAAegQIARAB&usg=AOvVaw0VgVag4Iys-kAALAKGYHJh

    There is space to double the frequency of the light rail if needed.

  28. 193. Turnbull Reckons he is not a Miserable Ghost (Who Walks?) Cockup.
    194. Frydenberg Looking for Kroger’s successor Instead of Going to G20 Cockup.
    195. Morrison Reckons There are Real Liberals Which Means There Must be Fake Liberals Cockup.
    196. Nauru in Grip of Mental Health Crisis. Libs/Nauru Same Same Cockup?
    197. Queensland Global Warming Half Dead Reef Cocku.
    198. Queensland Global Warming Million Acres of BushFires Cockup.
    199. Queensland Global Warming Record Hot Temperatures Cockup.
    200. Queensland Global Warming Drought Cockup.
    201. Joyce’s Gwabegar Property Purchase Investigation Cockup.
    202. Biggest Property Price Slide in 35 years Cockup.
    203. Extends Mental Torture of Gay School Kids Cockup.
    204. Fifield Defends Gay Discrimination Legislation Delay as the Will of the Senate Cockup
    205. Liberals Chris Rath, Sally Betts, Wayne Brown and Harry Stutchbury Fail to Vote on Top Down Pre-selection Decision Cockup.
    206. Four Independents Sistas Again Abstain from SSO vote Cockup.
    207. Whacka Williams Reckons Turnbull is not Helping Cockup.
    208. Porter Waits for Someone to Tell Him That it is Unreasonable to Torture Gay Kids Cockup.
    209. Karvelas Kicked out of QT ‘for Showing Too Much Skin’ Cockup.
    210. Kelly NOT Kicked out of QT for Promoting Global Warming Cockup.
    211. Morrison Holds Up Gay Kids Protection Bill; Blames Labor Cockup.
    212. McDonald Wants to Wear a Hi-Vis Coal Vest into the Senate Cockup.

  32. The Green regulars on here sink to a new pathetic low. They were the first to pile in on Emma Husar day after day, cut and paste Alice Workman and others. But now, when it suits them, it’s all poor Emma, how terrible. The facts are, whatever the rights and wrongs of the alegations made, Emma made a very public decision not to seek preselection, and made that call prior to the outcome of the investigation being made public. Having made that decision, what exactly did she expect the party to do? Not seek another candidate for a highly contested marginal seat, just in case she might change her mind? That is completely naïve and unrealistic. She needs to live with the decision she made at the time. I certainly do have some empathy for the situation she found herself in during the pile on; but it is absolutely pathetic that some of the same people cheering on the pile on at the time now want to pretend they’ve been on the side of Emma Husar all the time. They might do better to focus on the significant culture problems of their own party, not to mention its growing irrelevance.

  36. As for Dutton, surely he can sling his arse onto the govt benches. He’s got a muscle injury to his arm ffs.
    Labor play too nice, they should have denied him a pair.

  39. Buckingham (a) aped cunnilingus and then (b) stated that he did not know that he was aping cunnilingus.

    Uh huh.

    No doubt Di Natale will fix this bey deploying the usual Greens response: ‘Labor is smearing the Greens again’.

  41. So much for the Warringah motion… or was that designed to ensure conservatives get control of the selection of Lib party candidates? I’m so confused.

  43. Not much that people say in parliament make me laugh, adults and all that, but this did:

    Mikearoo
    ‏Verified account @mpbowers

    The opposition are calling Angus Taylor “Biggus Stickus” and calling out lines from Monty Pythons Life of Brian during #weleaseWoger #QT @AmyRemeikis @GuardianAus #PoliticsLive

    https://twitter.com/mpbowers/status/1069440044463603713?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1069440044463603713&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Faustralia-news%2Flive%2F2018%2Fdec%2F03%2Fliberals-coalition-turnbull-craig-kelly-preselection-question-time-labor-politics-live

  46. RatesAnalyst, Observer re govt bonds

    What is your explanation for the process (perhaps still ongoing, I haven’t checked) whereby Bank of Japan buys up Japanese Govt debt, to the extent of owning rather a large fraction of it?

    I am not implying that “this demonstrates govt debt in its own currency is a myth” but rather that there are things that need further explanation…

  48. Well we could train more people and set up a popcorn factory and have a Federal department of popcorn.

    I’m not actually disagreeing with Nicholas either. Its just that popcorn would be more socially usefull thsn some of the ‘jobs’ created under a JG.

  49. (CNN)Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari has denied claims that he died and was replaced by a clone, calling the speculation “ignorant rumors.”

    Buhari tweeted on Sunday that he addressed the reports while at a meeting in Poland.
    “One of the questions that came up today in my meeting with Nigerians in Poland was on the issue of whether I’ve been cloned or not,” Buhari said.

    Errr do you think this has happened to the entire Liberal Team??

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