Victorian election: photo finishes

A closer look at the yet-to-be-decided seats for the Victorian election.

A full display of the election results, with complete booth figures, swings and probability estimates, can be found here. This will be updated with the latest figures at irregular intervals.

Tuesday afternoon

4pm. Ali Cupper has reportedly emerged the winner in Mildura after distribution of preferences by 254 votes.

2pm. No official figures available, but the preference count in Prahran has established that Greens incumbent Sam Hibbins has prevailed over Labor’s Neil Pharaoh, apparently by around 200 votes, with the latter conceding defeat on social media. So the Greens have maintained their lower house status quo of three seats, losing Northcote but gaining Brunswick, although they stand to be gutted in the upper house, where they went in with five and will come out with one or two.

Tuesday morning

Preference distributions will apparently start being conducted today, and it doesn’t seem there are more than tiny handfuls of votes remaining to be cleared up in the primary and two-party counts. So unless the preference distribution process turns up a misplaced bundle, it would seem Labor has won Bayswater and Hawthorn, the Liberals have held on in Caulfield and Ripon, and independent Ali Cupper has scraped home in Mildura. The only significant action in the close seat counts yesterday was in Caulfield, where postals continued to save the day for David Southwick, the latest batch favouring him 145-61 and extending his lead from 338 to 410.

Monday morning

The most interesting development over the weekend from my perch was that 525 postals were added in Mildura, which cut Ali Cupper’s lead from 252 to 189. With the dealine for postals to arrive being tomorrow at 5pm, there will presumably be only one more, smaller batch to go, and very little chance that it will overturn Cupper’s lead. Tiny additions to the vote in Hawthorn and Ripon made no appreciable difference to the situation there, as related in the previous entry. Kevin Bonham has been doing good work following the count in Prahran, where only scrutineers’ reports offer any guidance as to the flow of preferences between the Greens and Labor, which stands to decide the result. Suffice to say that it’s going to be very close. The other potential wild cards when preferences are distributed are Melton and Benambra, which Labor and Liberal respectively have at least some chance of losing to independents. Then there’s the upper house …

Friday evening

Just as my interest in the count was winding down, along comes Caulfield — Liberal member David Southwick led by 1101 yesterday, and trails by 118 today. Southwick is one of three Liberals on very narrow deficits, hoping they might be overturned on the final batch of postals. The damage to Southwick was done on absents — not so much due to the swing, which was actually modest (3.6% to Labor, compared with 7.0% of ordinary votes), but the surprisingly high number cast (5692 as compared with 3130 in 2014). Labor scored over 60%, for a split of 3439-2253. Postal votes have been overwhelmingly favouring Southwick — 2682 to 1030, or 72.3-27.7 — so it will only take a small number of late arrivals behaving according to form to get his nose back in front. But there will very little in it either way.

Provisionals and a handful of pre-polls have made next to no difference in Hawthorn, where the Labor lead goes from 156 to 163. A big day of counting in Ripon (or maybe two — I don’t think I looked closely at the numbers yesterday) has failed to settle the matter — Labor has moved to a razor-thin 73 vote lead due to the latest pre-polls, which they won 2211-2059. There was nothing in it on absents (1296 to Labor and 1289 to Liberal), and Labor made their usual small gain on provisionals (147 to 124).

In Mildura, independent Ali Cupper got a handy 195-144 break on provisionals, cancelling out a 41-22 loss on pre-polls and 20-10 on absents in a race where every vote counts. She now leads by 303 votes, which will presumably be enough.

Friday morning

As the count dries up, the in doubt seats are increasingly looking less so. Labor’s lead in Hawthorn grew from 47 to 156 yesterday, as they gained the edge on absents (281-207), postals (109-86) and pre-polls (27-15). They should gain a bit more when provisionals are added, leaving John Pesutto needing something pretty extraordinary on late postals. Labor’s lead nudged from 236 to 266 in Bayswater, after provisionals broke 120-88 their way and postals went 69-67 to the Liberals. The Greens’ lead in Brunswick grew from 353 to 414 with small additions of absents, postals and pre-polls, at which point you would be pretty much calling it. It no longer seems necessary to continue following Nepean, where Labor leads by 794, or Sandringham, where the Liberals lead by 451. No progress today in Mildura, where independent Ali Cupper leads the Nationals by 281.

Thursday morning

Another good day for Labor overall, who seem to be doing better from votes cast out-of-district, whether as absent votes or pre-polls, than the in-district pre-poll votes that were counted on election night. However, I’m not clear if absent votes are all being added in one hit per electorate, or if further additions can yet be anticipated where results have already appeared. I’m tending to think the latter — since absents are usually the best part of late counting for Labor, a fair bit hinges on this.

In Hawthorn, absent votes turned yesterday’s 235-vote Liberal lead into a Labor lead of 47. Labor got 56.8% out of 2498 absents, above the 53.0% I was projecting. I was also projecting there would be 3792 in total, so I am guessing there are another 1000 or so still out there. These will be decisive if so, but it can’t be said how they might behave — batches of absent votes can behave very differently depending where they were sourced from. The Liberals also got only 50.7% out of 4242 new pre-polls (2150 to 2092) added yesterday, compared with their 56.3% of the first 7148 counted.

Things continue to go Labor’s way in Bayswater, where their lead grew yesterday from 165 to 236. Labor got 55.2% of the absents added yesterday — exactly as I had anticipated, but they were 2705 in total rather than my projected 2054. It was also a good day for Labor in Nepean, where they won a batch of 3673 new pre-polls 1903-1770 — 51.8% compared with their 46.4% from the first 14,903. Labor now leads by 492, and most of the outstanding votes are likely to be absents, none of which have been added, so the balance would seem to be tipping their Labor. My lineball projection as of yesterday is now for a Labor winning margin of 0.5%.

One late counting bright spot for the Liberals is Sandringham, where 4464 new pre-polls behaved very much like the first 9424 in breaking 2489-1975 their way. Furthermore, absent votes were added and while they went 1139-884 to Labor, there were less of them than I was anticipating (2023 rather than a projected 2566). However, I’m not sure if this is all of them or not. In any case, the Liberal lead is now 497, and with only a few scraps still outstanding, this will be hard for Labor to rein in.

The Greens’ lead in Brunswick grew from 218 to 353, but they underperformed my projection out of 2653 absent votes counted in Brunswick, scoring 1475 to Labor’s 1178 — 55.6% compared with my projected 61.8%. However, that’s also about 1000 less than I was projecting, so there are presumably more of these to come. There would seem to be another 2000 of these as well. Labor will need about 56% of what’s to come.

The Nationals have come storming home in Mildura, being overwhelmingly dominant on the small number of absent votes (575 to independent Ali Cupper’s 227), and reversing earlier form to win a batch of pre-polls 870 to 640. This slashed Cupper’s lead from 859 to 281. My earlier judgement was that the number of votes outstanding here was too small for the Nationals to close the gap, and that probably still holds, as I believe there are only a few hundred postals still to come.

Nothing today from Ripon.

Wednesday morning

Labor solidly outperformed my projections yesterday in Bayswater, scoring almost exactly half of 4559 pre-polls added, where they only got 46.1% of the first 8383. They also won 52.1% of 674 postals, after scoring only 39.6% of the 2217 counted on election night, did about as well on absents as anticipated, winning 1132-922. That gives Labor a lead of 165, or 0.2% – with not much of the vote outstanding, my projection has it coming down to 0.1%, but Labor will more likely than not continue outperforming its assumptions.

Better news for the Liberals from Ripon, where 889 postals broke 535-354 to Liberal (60.2% compared with 58.0% in the first 3735) and pre-polls went 393-304 (56.4% compared with 51.0% of the first 3302). My Liberal projection has gone from 49.9% to 50.2%, but here too the number of postals received has exceeded my projection, so if anything it might be understating their chances. That said, the margin is narrow enough that a good pre-poll batch or better than expected show on absents for Labor could up-end it. Swings and roundabouts in Nepean, where the Liberals went below par on yesterday’s postals (360-297 in their favour, or 54.8% compared with 59.2% in the election night batch of 2341), but above par on pre-polls (587-357, 62.2% compared with 53.0% of the first 13,959). Before I was projecting a 134 vote win for Labor, now it’s 26 votes for Liberal.

The Liberal lead in Hawthorn increased yesterday from 53 to 235, but only postals were added, and these were slightly less favourable to the Liberals than those counted on election night, bringing my projected final Liberal margin down from 1.1% to 0.8%. The election night postals went Liberal 1104 (60.4%) and Labor 725 (39.6%), but yesterday’s batch went Labor 1115 (54.3%) and Liberal 937 (45.7%). No further pre-polls have been added, and the outstanding ones may yet surprise in either direction. Then there are absents, which I am projecting Labor to do well on, though evidently not well enough.

The Greens are firming in Brunswick: they won a second batch of postals 442-426, after losing the election night count 950-699, and they won a batch of absents 811-537, exactly the proportion anticipated when I projected them to win by 1.0%.

Tuesday afternoon

Labor leads on the raw count with about a third done in Morwell, but my projection is that this will flip when the outstanding votes are in — Northe is on track to receive about 70% of preferences, in which case he wins 52-48 (I conducted a regression analysis to test whether the existing preference count was representative of the whole, and found that it was). Better news for Labor in Geelong, where Christine Couzens leads Darryn Lyons, and Pascoe Vale, where Lizzie Blandthorn leads Oscar Yildiz 59.0-41.0. In Shepparton, Suzanna Sheed looks seat to emerge with 54% to 55% against the Liberal candidate.

Tuesday morning

With very little counting done yesterday, the chief news is that the Victorian Electoral Commission announced it is conducting new preference throws to indicate the likely winners Morwell (independent versus Labor), Geelong (Labor versus independent), Pascoe Vale (Labor versus independent) and Shepparton (independent versus Liberal), and will publish the results later today. The removal of the two-party numbers from the media feed caused my results reporting facility to conk out, so the figures it show remain those from Sunday.

The only thing I know so far about the new preference throws is that the Pascoe Vale pre-poll count has broken 6059-6008 for Labor’s Lizzie Bladthorn over independent Oscar Yildiz, as related by Richard Willingham of The Age. This suggests the advantage to Yildiz on preferences is only 53-47, in which case Blandthorn would win handily with between 54% and 55%. Independents Russell Northe and Darryn Lyons will respectively need around 72% and 66% of preferences in Morwell and Geelong. The deal in Shepparton is that it’s the Liberals rather than the Nationals who finished second, but unless I’m missing something, it would seem to me that Suzanna Sheed is home and hosed in either case.

The only change in the seven seats where I felt the existing notional counts were following was in Ripon, where a batch of pre-polls broke 587-357 to the Liberals – 63% compared with their earlier 53%. This means my projection has gone from 0.1% in favour of Labor to 0.1% in favour of Liberal. The votes counted totals for the upper house have edged up from the forties to the fifties, but I’m still holding off looking into them in detail.

Sunday night

If you want real detail on the likely course of the late count, Kevin Bonham is your man. For starters, I will content myself with the following projections of how the undecided seats where the correct two candidates have been picked for the notional preference count stand to play out. As explained below, there are methodogical details that one might well think imperfect, but if nothing else, consider it a conversation starter.

This assumes that a) outstanding pre-polls will break the same way as those already counted, and the number outstanding is as indicated by the relevant figures from the Victorian Electoral Commission; b) postals will break the same way as those already counted, with the total number to be counted equal to the total in 2014 adjusted in proportion to the growth in enrolment since that time; c) absent votes will differ from non-absent votes in the same way they did in 2014, with the total number determined the same way as for postals. No account is made for provisionals, which should throw a handful of extra votes Labor’s way.

This makes it clear enough that the Liberals should get home in Hawthorn, Sandringham and probably Bayswater, but Nepean and Ripon will go right down to the wire. The Greens’ traditionally strong showing on absent votes should see them home in Brunswick, and it seems likely independent Ali Cupper will gain Mildura from the Nationals. I was circumspect about this in my post last night, as I expected the Nationals would do well on postals – but it turns out that, for whatever reason, very few postals are cast in Mildura. Indeed, it ranks last in the state for number of postal votes received, according to the VEC’s figures.

Then there are the in doubt seats for which the two-party count doesn’t offer an insight. Prahran will be won by whoever out of Greens incumbent Sam Hibbins and Labor’s Neil Pharoah survives the second last exclusion on preferences, which will be absolutely touch and go. Then there is my watch list of five seats (not counting Mildura) that could potentially be won by independents, as discussed in my previous post. Morwell could stay with Nationals-turned-independent member Russell Northe, and will go to Labor if it doesn’t; the Liberals might lose Benambra; Labor might lose Geelong, Melton and Pascoe Vale.

That leaves Labor with 49 seats nailed down, on top of which they might keep Geelong, Melton and Pascoe Vale, and gain Prahran, Nepean, Ripon and Morwell. The Coalition have 27 seats in the bag, including Hawthorn, Sandringham and (perhaps generously) Bayswater, on top of which they might keep Nepean, Ripon and Benambra. I’m pretty sure the Greens will have Brunswick in addition to Melbourne, and are lineball to keep Prahran. I’m giving Mildura as well as Shepparton to independents, to which it’s at least possible to add another five.

As for the upper house, we’re still at too early a stage in the count for me to be bothered putting my oar in – only election day votes have thus far been counted, and an increasing number of voters have finally got the message about the advisability of voting below the line (requiring the numbering of only five boxes in the case of Victorian state elections). However, it looks fairly clear that there will indeed be a spectacular array of micro-parties on the cross bench, and that the principal casualty of this phenomenon is the Greens.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

457 comments on “Victorian election: photo finishes”

  1. Presumably the postal vote legislation changed. 6 days for the postal vote to get back is hardly outrageous, in the UK (and probably many other places) postal votes have to be received by the election authorities by the close of polls on election day.

    The postal vote criteria appear not to have been changed since before the introduction of early voting. Since various forms of electoral fraud are harder with attendance voting than postal voting (especially intimidating people`s choice because with postal voting no electoral officials are there when the ballots are marked to prevent intimidation), postal voting criteria should be tightened to exclude people who can attend early voting but not polling day voting.

  2. Libs now lead Caulfield by 410 votes. Batch of 240 votes, mainly prepolls but some others , Libs got 156 votes and Labor 84 votes. The 2PP is now 50.54% to the Libs.

  3. At the time of the 2014 Victorian election I was travelling in South America. Beforehand I had thought that voting would be a straightforward matter of turning up to the embassy in Buenos Aires and doing the deed.

    No such luck – voting was only available at selected diplomatic posts, of which there were precisely none in South America. This meant applying for a postal vote, which had to be applied for by either writing or sending a fax (yes, a fax in 2014) to the nearest such diplomatic post, Washington D.C. (They obviously weren’t too concerned that my “fax” was sent using a web-to-fax service).

    The ballot papers were then sent (this part, at least, was done electronically). I then had to find somewhere to print them, fill them out, and then find an Australian citizen to witness them. By this stage I was in the back blocks of Patagonia so finding somewhere to print them wasn’t that easy, and once that was done it wasn’t that easy to find an Australian citizen either – a couple of days later I heard an Australian accent a few tables away at dinner, and pounced.

    The final step was to find a functioning post office, which I eventually did on the Thursday before polling day. I have no idea whether the ballot papers made it back by the deadline but I suspect they didn’t.

    I think it fair to say that someone who wasn’t a politically engaged person living in a marginal seat probably wouldn’t have bothered.

    Don’t know whether any of this changed for 2018. (I did suggest fairly strongly to my local MP afterwards that the process could use some streamlining).

  4. Thank you Outsider,

    Nowhere does it say why they made this change or give any rationale for it. No one should be able to make these types of changes without a damn good reason. Regardless of which side it benefits.
    Another change that seems to have escaped scrutiny – Now that you don’t need ANY reason to vote early, maybe we should start calling Election Day, Counting Day!
    One change I think is a no brainer, voter ID. After the 2013 election, 8000 people voted more than once but if you believe the AEC, they were mostly people who were drunk, confused or elderly! They were referred to the AFP but what penalty they faced is unknown. It’s bizarre that you need ID to open a bank account, travel by plane, get welfare and start a new job but NOT to vote, the cornerstone of our democracy.

  5. Labor’s Neil Pharaoh posted last night that the primary vote count is finalised for Prahran and the preference distribution begins at 9:30 today.

    Knowing pretty much all the votes are counted and rechecks complete, as today’s blog entry indicates above it looks like the results in Bayswater, Caulfield, Hawthorn, Rip & Mildura are pretty much decided unless some sort of major counting error is uncovered, just leaving Prahran as the only real mystery left.

  6. So my pre-election prediction that the Greens would lose Prahran and gain Brunswick was half right.

    In four years time there should be some movement from Labor back to Liberal, which would make Prahran an easier hold for the Greens, unless the redistribution stuffs them up.

  7. Prahran is certainly remarkable for a nearly even three-way split, with close margins, twice in a row.

    Sadly, the world has many people who would have been good parliamentarians who were not elected, and more than a few poor ones who never should have been.

  8. Yeah BT. I think all Australian diplomatic posts should provide voting opportunities for State as well as Federal elections.

    Despite having been in the back blocks of Chilean Patagonia, the only overseas vote I made was a WA referendum in London.

  9. So now attention will turn to the LC.
    It’s interesting to see what the Greens can salvage from BTL votes against the Druery micros.

  10. Prahran results have been updated now.

    Pharoah led by 340 votes after all minors except AJP had been excluded, but the AJP exclusion went 842-238 to Hibbins, who beat him by 264 (and obviously went on to thump the Liberal by over 6010 votes).

  11. So this election maintains the Greens’ interesting single-member-seat track record – they have never lost a seat once they won it in a general election, but they have never HELD a seat at a general election that they first won in a by-election.

    Next test: Ballina.

  12. ALP preferences went 81% to the Greens.

    I’d be interested to know if the flow would have been higher or lower if it was Greens to ALP.

    2014 the Greens to ALP flow was less than the ALP to Greens flow; but I suspect it might have been the other way around this year. Quite possibly a lot of Liberal voters who swung to Andrews but still put the Libs above the Greens.

  13. The other issue arising from the wash-up in the lower house is that the result for the Greens probably needs to be dialled back from disaster, the rating on election evening to disappointing. Final vote was 10.5% as opposed to 9.8% with three seats in hand rather than one. Greens seem to do well on prepolls in Melbourne.

    Upper House is another matter – though their haul of 5 seats last time was lucky – a small reduction in votes there would have seen their representation dropped back to 3 seats this time even without the Group Voting rort of Mr Duery.

  14. So what was looking like a disaster for the Greens on election night has not quite come to pass. If the ALP couldn’t win Prahran this year in a landslide election year, then this may stay Green for a while, potentially with a bit of a swing back towards the Libs on the 2PP next time?

    Anyway, the 3 cornered contests are heaps of fun. And the Libs losing candidate bleating on social media that we should go back to First Past The Post…

  15. Ironic, because Prahran has proven to be a perfect case of why preferential is better than first past the post.

    To win a seat with a 34% primary vote when 57% of the electorate preferred either of the other top two candidates would prove why FPTP is a bad system!!

  16. On a related note, why is that alternative actually even called “First past the post”?

    If “the post” is a majority, then in a system where the highest first-preference wins, “the post” would never even be passed in a seat that goes to preferences. Therefore it’s not “first past the post” at all, it’s “closest to the post”. Preferencial voting is actually the true “first past the post” because if you don’t get there on first preferences, then the whole point of the preference distribution is actually to get somebody past the post…

  17. Frickeg

    when the Greens win a seat at a by-election it is usually because the Liberals don’t run a candidate. This makes the by-election voting an unreliable guide to voting in a general election.

  18. The Greens should be very happy with their result in Prahran. In an election where things have generally not gone their way, the final Prahran results are very positive:

    Primary vote swing: +3.8%
    2PP swing vs Liberals: +7%

    Most importantly, the winning 3PP margin vs Labor increased from 31 votes in 2014 to 264 votes in 2018, which is a significant achievement in an election that had such enormous pro-ALP momentum.

    They not only held on but increased their vote, increased their lead over Labor, and massively increased their 2PP margin.

  19. “when the Greens win a seat at a by-election it is usually because the Liberals don’t run a candidate. This makes the by-election voting an unreliable guide to voting in a general election.”

    Although in Northcote, the Lib vote of 10% was not much more than not running a candidate…

    But it’s true, Libs staying home for the by-election may have been the difference. (This doesn’t actually require them to run a candidate in the LA.)

  20. It will be particularly interesting to see how the Greens hold up once the tide starts going out for the ALP again. At the moment the Greens core seems absolutely rock solid, with the swing against them more than explained by the AJP.

  21. Rocket Rocket says:
    Friday, November 23, 2018 at 10:36 pm

    I have not changed my prediction all week

    Labor 48, Coalition 35, Greens 3, Independents 2

    Seats changing hands –

    Northcote – Labor gain from Greens
    Brunswick – Greens gain from Labor
    Ripon – Labor gain from Liberal
    South Barwon – Labor gain from Liberal
    One more independent to win a Coalition seat – can’t nominate which

    So I got the three Greens seats right. Amazed Labor has not won Ripon (79 behind).
    Also amazed Russell Northe won in Morwell – did not think he would be an ind winner.
    And obviously my 48 for Labor was way under what was achieved.

    LC – I predicted 10-12 micros. It seemed almost impossible for there not be one in every region, and whenever I ran Antony’s calculators I often got a micro in 4th with another a good chance for 5th. Particularly NV where I see his calculator now has LDP getting 3rd, DHJP 4th, and Labor d Liberal for 5th). I know this is not accounting below the line voting, but Kevin Bonham currently also has that order.

    https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2018/11/victorian-upper-house-live.html

  22. The Greens should be very pleased with their Lower House result. For both macro and micro reasons this was a challenging election for them. I had thought it was quite likely that they would only retain Melbourne – though winning 3 seats, the most they’ve ever won in the Vic Lower House at a general election- involved a fair degree of luck given the tight margins. The Upper House was always going to be difficult for them owing to GTV. Also interesting that the rural independents thing seems to be slowly gathering steam. Shepp last time, Mildura as well this time and Benambra going close. If the current cross bench of 5 keeps accumulating sooner or later we’re likely to have a minority government. Probably not in 2022, though given electoral volatility these days that’s by no means impossible. From 2026 on it’s a big chance.

  23. max @ #436 Tuesday, December 4th, 2018 – 7:02 pm

    The Greens should be very pleased with their Lower House result. For both macro and micro reasons this was a challenging election for them. I had thought it was quite likely that they would only retain Melbourne – though winning 3 seats, the most they’ve ever won in the Vic Lower House at a general election- involved a fair degree of luck given the tight margins. The Upper House was always going to be difficult for them owing to GTV. Also interesting that the rural independents thing seems to be slowly gathering steam. Shepp last time, Mildura as well this time and Benambra going close. If the current cross bench of 5 keeps accumulating sooner or later we’re likely to have a minority government. Probably not in 2022, though given electoral volatility these days that’s by no means impossible. From 2026 on it’s a big chance.

    Labor in Vic does not need the Greens approval for anything. Let’s just see how not having a seat at the table works out for the voters of these erstwhile Labor seats. If you vote for “Nothingburgers”, that’s what you get!

  24. So Labor kicks a goal in Ripon 10 days after the siren. Does anyone have anything official? Labor back to 19/40 in the LC prediction. Xmas is early this year.

  25. Looks like Labor’s 31 vote win in Ripon is the official result as that has come out of the final preference distribution (compared to the earlier 2PP count which was only provisional).

    However, with a margin as small as 31 votes I very much doubt the Liberal candidate will concede and will most likely request a recount.

  26. Interestingly Prahran will look like the safest state seat the Greens have ever held with a 2PP margin of 7.4%, even though the reality is that it’s actually their most marginal with only 264 votes in it at the 3PP stage.

  27. Trent @ #439 Tuesday, December 4th, 2018 – 7:26 pm

    Looks like Labor’s 31 vote win in Ripon is the official result as that has come out of the final preference distribution (compared to the earlier 2PP count which was only provisional).

    However, with a margin as small as 31 votes I very much doubt the Liberal candidate will concede and will most likely request a recount.

    Which is fair enough.

    BTW a big hat tip to you and your contribution. You analyse well!

    Cheers.

  28. In Benambra, Hawkins did run second, Tait ALP third behind Hawkins by 1668 votes after 3PP, but Tilley has won the 2PP over Hawkins by 2025 votes or 52.45% of 2PP so was not really close in the end. And thats 88 seats decided unless the LIBS decide to protest Ripon due to the 31 vote margin.

  29. So just for a bit of fun this is how my bets went

    Winning bets
    Bayswater Labor @ 4
    South Barwon Labor @ 2.1
    Mildura Independent @ 3.25
    Shepparton Independent @ 1.7
    Richmond Labor @ 1.85
    Box Hill Labor @ 8
    Bentleigh Labor @ 1.87
    Bass Labor @ 3.4
    Winning Party Labor @ 1.4

    Losing Bets
    Brunswick Labor @ 2.5
    Forest Hill Labor @ 6
    Caulfield Labor @ 6
    Number of Green seats 2 @ 7
    Number of Green seats 1 @ 11
    Number of Green seats 0 @ 15 LOL

    All small amounts with %36 return on bets.

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