Victorian election: photo finishes

A closer look at the yet-to-be-decided seats for the Victorian election.

A full display of the election results, with complete booth figures, swings and probability estimates, can be found here. This will be updated with the latest figures at irregular intervals.

Tuesday afternoon

4pm. Ali Cupper has reportedly emerged the winner in Mildura after distribution of preferences by 254 votes.

2pm. No official figures available, but the preference count in Prahran has established that Greens incumbent Sam Hibbins has prevailed over Labor’s Neil Pharaoh, apparently by around 200 votes, with the latter conceding defeat on social media. So the Greens have maintained their lower house status quo of three seats, losing Northcote but gaining Brunswick, although they stand to be gutted in the upper house, where they went in with five and will come out with one or two.

Tuesday morning

Preference distributions will apparently start being conducted today, and it doesn’t seem there are more than tiny handfuls of votes remaining to be cleared up in the primary and two-party counts. So unless the preference distribution process turns up a misplaced bundle, it would seem Labor has won Bayswater and Hawthorn, the Liberals have held on in Caulfield and Ripon, and independent Ali Cupper has scraped home in Mildura. The only significant action in the close seat counts yesterday was in Caulfield, where postals continued to save the day for David Southwick, the latest batch favouring him 145-61 and extending his lead from 338 to 410.

Monday morning

The most interesting development over the weekend from my perch was that 525 postals were added in Mildura, which cut Ali Cupper’s lead from 252 to 189. With the dealine for postals to arrive being tomorrow at 5pm, there will presumably be only one more, smaller batch to go, and very little chance that it will overturn Cupper’s lead. Tiny additions to the vote in Hawthorn and Ripon made no appreciable difference to the situation there, as related in the previous entry. Kevin Bonham has been doing good work following the count in Prahran, where only scrutineers’ reports offer any guidance as to the flow of preferences between the Greens and Labor, which stands to decide the result. Suffice to say that it’s going to be very close. The other potential wild cards when preferences are distributed are Melton and Benambra, which Labor and Liberal respectively have at least some chance of losing to independents. Then there’s the upper house …

Friday evening

Just as my interest in the count was winding down, along comes Caulfield — Liberal member David Southwick led by 1101 yesterday, and trails by 118 today. Southwick is one of three Liberals on very narrow deficits, hoping they might be overturned on the final batch of postals. The damage to Southwick was done on absents — not so much due to the swing, which was actually modest (3.6% to Labor, compared with 7.0% of ordinary votes), but the surprisingly high number cast (5692 as compared with 3130 in 2014). Labor scored over 60%, for a split of 3439-2253. Postal votes have been overwhelmingly favouring Southwick — 2682 to 1030, or 72.3-27.7 — so it will only take a small number of late arrivals behaving according to form to get his nose back in front. But there will very little in it either way.

Provisionals and a handful of pre-polls have made next to no difference in Hawthorn, where the Labor lead goes from 156 to 163. A big day of counting in Ripon (or maybe two — I don’t think I looked closely at the numbers yesterday) has failed to settle the matter — Labor has moved to a razor-thin 73 vote lead due to the latest pre-polls, which they won 2211-2059. There was nothing in it on absents (1296 to Labor and 1289 to Liberal), and Labor made their usual small gain on provisionals (147 to 124).

In Mildura, independent Ali Cupper got a handy 195-144 break on provisionals, cancelling out a 41-22 loss on pre-polls and 20-10 on absents in a race where every vote counts. She now leads by 303 votes, which will presumably be enough.

Friday morning

As the count dries up, the in doubt seats are increasingly looking less so. Labor’s lead in Hawthorn grew from 47 to 156 yesterday, as they gained the edge on absents (281-207), postals (109-86) and pre-polls (27-15). They should gain a bit more when provisionals are added, leaving John Pesutto needing something pretty extraordinary on late postals. Labor’s lead nudged from 236 to 266 in Bayswater, after provisionals broke 120-88 their way and postals went 69-67 to the Liberals. The Greens’ lead in Brunswick grew from 353 to 414 with small additions of absents, postals and pre-polls, at which point you would be pretty much calling it. It no longer seems necessary to continue following Nepean, where Labor leads by 794, or Sandringham, where the Liberals lead by 451. No progress today in Mildura, where independent Ali Cupper leads the Nationals by 281.

Thursday morning

Another good day for Labor overall, who seem to be doing better from votes cast out-of-district, whether as absent votes or pre-polls, than the in-district pre-poll votes that were counted on election night. However, I’m not clear if absent votes are all being added in one hit per electorate, or if further additions can yet be anticipated where results have already appeared. I’m tending to think the latter — since absents are usually the best part of late counting for Labor, a fair bit hinges on this.

In Hawthorn, absent votes turned yesterday’s 235-vote Liberal lead into a Labor lead of 47. Labor got 56.8% out of 2498 absents, above the 53.0% I was projecting. I was also projecting there would be 3792 in total, so I am guessing there are another 1000 or so still out there. These will be decisive if so, but it can’t be said how they might behave — batches of absent votes can behave very differently depending where they were sourced from. The Liberals also got only 50.7% out of 4242 new pre-polls (2150 to 2092) added yesterday, compared with their 56.3% of the first 7148 counted.

Things continue to go Labor’s way in Bayswater, where their lead grew yesterday from 165 to 236. Labor got 55.2% of the absents added yesterday — exactly as I had anticipated, but they were 2705 in total rather than my projected 2054. It was also a good day for Labor in Nepean, where they won a batch of 3673 new pre-polls 1903-1770 — 51.8% compared with their 46.4% from the first 14,903. Labor now leads by 492, and most of the outstanding votes are likely to be absents, none of which have been added, so the balance would seem to be tipping their Labor. My lineball projection as of yesterday is now for a Labor winning margin of 0.5%.

One late counting bright spot for the Liberals is Sandringham, where 4464 new pre-polls behaved very much like the first 9424 in breaking 2489-1975 their way. Furthermore, absent votes were added and while they went 1139-884 to Labor, there were less of them than I was anticipating (2023 rather than a projected 2566). However, I’m not sure if this is all of them or not. In any case, the Liberal lead is now 497, and with only a few scraps still outstanding, this will be hard for Labor to rein in.

The Greens’ lead in Brunswick grew from 218 to 353, but they underperformed my projection out of 2653 absent votes counted in Brunswick, scoring 1475 to Labor’s 1178 — 55.6% compared with my projected 61.8%. However, that’s also about 1000 less than I was projecting, so there are presumably more of these to come. There would seem to be another 2000 of these as well. Labor will need about 56% of what’s to come.

The Nationals have come storming home in Mildura, being overwhelmingly dominant on the small number of absent votes (575 to independent Ali Cupper’s 227), and reversing earlier form to win a batch of pre-polls 870 to 640. This slashed Cupper’s lead from 859 to 281. My earlier judgement was that the number of votes outstanding here was too small for the Nationals to close the gap, and that probably still holds, as I believe there are only a few hundred postals still to come.

Nothing today from Ripon.

Wednesday morning

Labor solidly outperformed my projections yesterday in Bayswater, scoring almost exactly half of 4559 pre-polls added, where they only got 46.1% of the first 8383. They also won 52.1% of 674 postals, after scoring only 39.6% of the 2217 counted on election night, did about as well on absents as anticipated, winning 1132-922. That gives Labor a lead of 165, or 0.2% – with not much of the vote outstanding, my projection has it coming down to 0.1%, but Labor will more likely than not continue outperforming its assumptions.

Better news for the Liberals from Ripon, where 889 postals broke 535-354 to Liberal (60.2% compared with 58.0% in the first 3735) and pre-polls went 393-304 (56.4% compared with 51.0% of the first 3302). My Liberal projection has gone from 49.9% to 50.2%, but here too the number of postals received has exceeded my projection, so if anything it might be understating their chances. That said, the margin is narrow enough that a good pre-poll batch or better than expected show on absents for Labor could up-end it. Swings and roundabouts in Nepean, where the Liberals went below par on yesterday’s postals (360-297 in their favour, or 54.8% compared with 59.2% in the election night batch of 2341), but above par on pre-polls (587-357, 62.2% compared with 53.0% of the first 13,959). Before I was projecting a 134 vote win for Labor, now it’s 26 votes for Liberal.

The Liberal lead in Hawthorn increased yesterday from 53 to 235, but only postals were added, and these were slightly less favourable to the Liberals than those counted on election night, bringing my projected final Liberal margin down from 1.1% to 0.8%. The election night postals went Liberal 1104 (60.4%) and Labor 725 (39.6%), but yesterday’s batch went Labor 1115 (54.3%) and Liberal 937 (45.7%). No further pre-polls have been added, and the outstanding ones may yet surprise in either direction. Then there are absents, which I am projecting Labor to do well on, though evidently not well enough.

The Greens are firming in Brunswick: they won a second batch of postals 442-426, after losing the election night count 950-699, and they won a batch of absents 811-537, exactly the proportion anticipated when I projected them to win by 1.0%.

Tuesday afternoon

Labor leads on the raw count with about a third done in Morwell, but my projection is that this will flip when the outstanding votes are in — Northe is on track to receive about 70% of preferences, in which case he wins 52-48 (I conducted a regression analysis to test whether the existing preference count was representative of the whole, and found that it was). Better news for Labor in Geelong, where Christine Couzens leads Darryn Lyons, and Pascoe Vale, where Lizzie Blandthorn leads Oscar Yildiz 59.0-41.0. In Shepparton, Suzanna Sheed looks seat to emerge with 54% to 55% against the Liberal candidate.

Tuesday morning

With very little counting done yesterday, the chief news is that the Victorian Electoral Commission announced it is conducting new preference throws to indicate the likely winners Morwell (independent versus Labor), Geelong (Labor versus independent), Pascoe Vale (Labor versus independent) and Shepparton (independent versus Liberal), and will publish the results later today. The removal of the two-party numbers from the media feed caused my results reporting facility to conk out, so the figures it show remain those from Sunday.

The only thing I know so far about the new preference throws is that the Pascoe Vale pre-poll count has broken 6059-6008 for Labor’s Lizzie Bladthorn over independent Oscar Yildiz, as related by Richard Willingham of The Age. This suggests the advantage to Yildiz on preferences is only 53-47, in which case Blandthorn would win handily with between 54% and 55%. Independents Russell Northe and Darryn Lyons will respectively need around 72% and 66% of preferences in Morwell and Geelong. The deal in Shepparton is that it’s the Liberals rather than the Nationals who finished second, but unless I’m missing something, it would seem to me that Suzanna Sheed is home and hosed in either case.

The only change in the seven seats where I felt the existing notional counts were following was in Ripon, where a batch of pre-polls broke 587-357 to the Liberals – 63% compared with their earlier 53%. This means my projection has gone from 0.1% in favour of Labor to 0.1% in favour of Liberal. The votes counted totals for the upper house have edged up from the forties to the fifties, but I’m still holding off looking into them in detail.

Sunday night

If you want real detail on the likely course of the late count, Kevin Bonham is your man. For starters, I will content myself with the following projections of how the undecided seats where the correct two candidates have been picked for the notional preference count stand to play out. As explained below, there are methodogical details that one might well think imperfect, but if nothing else, consider it a conversation starter.

This assumes that a) outstanding pre-polls will break the same way as those already counted, and the number outstanding is as indicated by the relevant figures from the Victorian Electoral Commission; b) postals will break the same way as those already counted, with the total number to be counted equal to the total in 2014 adjusted in proportion to the growth in enrolment since that time; c) absent votes will differ from non-absent votes in the same way they did in 2014, with the total number determined the same way as for postals. No account is made for provisionals, which should throw a handful of extra votes Labor’s way.

This makes it clear enough that the Liberals should get home in Hawthorn, Sandringham and probably Bayswater, but Nepean and Ripon will go right down to the wire. The Greens’ traditionally strong showing on absent votes should see them home in Brunswick, and it seems likely independent Ali Cupper will gain Mildura from the Nationals. I was circumspect about this in my post last night, as I expected the Nationals would do well on postals – but it turns out that, for whatever reason, very few postals are cast in Mildura. Indeed, it ranks last in the state for number of postal votes received, according to the VEC’s figures.

Then there are the in doubt seats for which the two-party count doesn’t offer an insight. Prahran will be won by whoever out of Greens incumbent Sam Hibbins and Labor’s Neil Pharoah survives the second last exclusion on preferences, which will be absolutely touch and go. Then there is my watch list of five seats (not counting Mildura) that could potentially be won by independents, as discussed in my previous post. Morwell could stay with Nationals-turned-independent member Russell Northe, and will go to Labor if it doesn’t; the Liberals might lose Benambra; Labor might lose Geelong, Melton and Pascoe Vale.

That leaves Labor with 49 seats nailed down, on top of which they might keep Geelong, Melton and Pascoe Vale, and gain Prahran, Nepean, Ripon and Morwell. The Coalition have 27 seats in the bag, including Hawthorn, Sandringham and (perhaps generously) Bayswater, on top of which they might keep Nepean, Ripon and Benambra. I’m pretty sure the Greens will have Brunswick in addition to Melbourne, and are lineball to keep Prahran. I’m giving Mildura as well as Shepparton to independents, to which it’s at least possible to add another five.

As for the upper house, we’re still at too early a stage in the count for me to be bothered putting my oar in – only election day votes have thus far been counted, and an increasing number of voters have finally got the message about the advisability of voting below the line (requiring the numbering of only five boxes in the case of Victorian state elections). However, it looks fairly clear that there will indeed be a spectacular array of micro-parties on the cross bench, and that the principal casualty of this phenomenon is the Greens.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

457 comments on “Victorian election: photo finishes”

  1. ABC website reports that the LegCo counting now has Jeff Bourman (Shooters) retaining his seat, at the expense of Vern Hughes from the Battlers.

    Whilst I’m not wild about the Shooters, I’m happy to not have Hughes in the mix.

    The Coalition seem to be on track to have 11 seats – it was 9 Lib and 2 Nat earlier, but now has gone to 10 & 1, with the Nats only seat being in Eastern Vic.

  2. I grew up in Shepparton – I’m amazed that the Libs, and not the Nats, finished second to Sheed. They spent big coin and Peter Schwarz was flogged.

    Overall it seems to me the Nats have had a shocker. And it has flown under the radar.

  3. Trent, I don’t understand this about preferences being excluded “Exactly as you mention, Labor’s lead is slightly smaller but the preferences are likely to favour Labor more this time. You’d expect that most Sustainable, DLP & Battler preferences will go Lib and be excluded from the ALP v Green contest altogether”

  4. Of all the 88 seats three that I am very surprised at are

    Morwell – where I though Russell Northe would go the way of so many others before him who quit their party and then lose badly to their party’s new endorsed candidate, or at best play the role of ‘spoiler’ and contribute to that person losing it to their side of politics.

    Melton – I saw someone in the lead-up (here?) talk about Melton and just skimmed through it with my response being “Tell ’em they’re dreamin'”.

    Werribee – again, a local independent has won more than 20% and will almost certainly end up 2nd to Labor. I wonder here if there had just been four candidates (Labor, Liberal, Ind, Green) whether Joe Garra may actually have won. Certainly Rachel Carling-Jenkins running here and getting 6% and preferencing Labor ahead of him isn’t helping. I think in some ways a ‘cleaner’ contest with fewer candidates can help an independent (like in Mildura – 5 better than 9) – maybe they get noticed more or something.

  5. My modelling has Northe winning Morwell about 51.5-48.5, perhaps a bit more, on the condition he is second after preferences (which I would consider just about inevitable).

    Re Shooters vs Hughes, the calculator is only a model; Hughes was probably losing even before the calculator flipped. I have detailed comments about the upper house counts here: http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2018/11/victorian-upper-house-live.html
    … but they are terribly complex and it is easy to overlook things that could happen in them. Most of the micros currently shown as winning will win or at least be beaten by another micro if they don’t.

  6. John – if the Liberals finish first, and Labor and the Greens in 2nd and 3rd spot, the system is such that the lowest primary getters below them get knocked out of the count sequentially. So voters who put say DLP first probably put Liberal 2nd so their vote goes in the Liberal pile (who are already first and likely to remain so possibly until the last ‘showdown’ v the Green v Labor winner. Likewise Battler and ‘Sus’ Australia – likely strongly eventually to the Liberals (in a three party contest)

    So the important thing is who out of Labor and Green is in that final contest. So the preferences from Animal Justice and Reason are likely to be more important in deciding which of Greens or Labor finish 2nd. Then the other one’s preferences will be distributed (Labor’s would be mostly to Greens and vice versa) – the winner of the Labor v Green race for 2nd place will then probably overtake the Liberals.

    Last time I think the Greens beat Labor by 31 votes at that ‘pinch point’ and then narrowly beat the Liberals. And yet if Labor had just pipped the Greens, the Liberals would have actually won narrowly from Greens preferences that went to them rather than Labor (in a slightly higher proportion than the Labor ones actually went to the Greens in the real count).

  7. Thank Rocket. So if Liberals finish 3rd they will be eliminated and their preferences will go to either Labor or Greens, likewise any DLP votes in the Liberal pile their next valid preferences will also go to Labor or Greens. Even if they prefenced these parties last or 2nd last. Their preferences won’t be excluded.

  8. For the Liberals to come third in Prahran, from their current 35.5%, they would need to pick up almost no preferences from the minor candidates and almost no vote from the remaining vote (mainly absents, postals and out of district prepolls) to be counted. The Liberals have picked up 7.4% in preferences in the indicative Greens versus Liberal 2 Candidate Preferred, so almost everyone of those votes would have to have the ALP better preferenced than the Liberals and that just is not going to happen.

  9. Left of Centre,

    Couldn’t agree more about the Redshirts. I’m sure Andrews couldn’t believe his luck about the Libs not making it a cornerstone issue. They could have called him a crook who stole taxpayers money and Andrews would be in no position to complain. After all, they ran ads implying that Guy is a killer re the Ambulance Crisis. Which raises the role of Vicpol in this sordid affair. Why did they arrest those on the lowest rung of responsibility but not those who were responsible for the plan? They were allowed to simply ignore requests for interviews. The Age ran an article about how there was a deliberate ‘go slow’ by the high command in the police department. Will IBAC be investigating this? This is potentially one of the worst examples of corruption in Australian history but the Libs were too dumb to realise it.

  10. John in Highgate 6003 – Re: my comment about the preferences to the Liberals being excluded, I just meant excluded from the Labor v Greens contest, not excluded altogether, but I probably worded that pretty confusingly.

    Rocket explained it well. Liberals will remain in first place on primary votes which means any preferences they receive will never get distributed to either Labor or Greens at any point, therefore being excluded from contributing to that particular contest which is really the deciding one.

    Those preferences will contribute to the Liberals’ final result in the 2PP contest, but the 2PP count meaningless at this point with the Liberals well & truly thumped likely by a margin of 8-9% after absents, and possibly more if it’s an ALP v LIB count.

  11. For what it’s worth, with probably 90% of postals out of the way, after all votes are finally counted I think the Liberal primary will drop to around the 34% range and the Labor & Greens primaries will increase by roughly a combined 2%, but how that is distributed between the two I’m not sure.

    At the 3PP count I expect the Liberals to be on around 37%, with Labor & Greens both around the 31-32% range.

    If it’s Greens v Liberals I expect it to finish up around 58-42 Greens.
    If it’s ALP v Liberals I expect it to finish up around 59-41 ALP.

  12. Jeremy C Browne

    Re red shirts, I think that Labor couldn’t believe, despite the ombudsman specifically recommending there was no basis for a criminal investigation, that VicPol chose to firstly open up an investigation and then chose to actual arrest the Labor field organisers after leaking they were going to to the media. I betcha you never hear about it again as there were clearly as many people in VicPol doing the Liberals bidding which is just as likely to come out if there is any probe into it.

    To call it the “one of the worst examples of corruption in Australian history” is completely absurd. Effectively they systemised what all parties do – use electoral office resources for campaigning. They copped a scolding from the ombudsmen and had to pay back a few hundred thousand dollars. Matthew Guy, when planning minister, made overnight rezoning decisions (most notably fishermans bend) that added tens of millions to the net-worth of several Liberal party donors. This is realm of true corruption, rather than political parties sailing a bit too close to the wind.

    The herald sun and the libs went very hard on the red shirts. Most people just didn’t care.

  13. You’re right Roger. Most people just accept that there are a bunch of self centered crooks on both sides of politics, who are only worried about their seats, salaries and pensions. Actually the majority.

  14. @Roger
    I’d tend to agree with your view that the VicPol opening an investigation (against the advice of the ombudsman), arresting Labor field organisers and leaking that to media looked like it had been instigated by agents friendly to the Libs.
    Forces friendly to the ALP then stymied the process, or perhaps clearer heads realised it was a stupid high-risk thing for the police to be injecting themselves into the policial process.
    Unlikely we’ll ever find out for sure.

  15. Further to Vpol acting on the complaint by Guy and the Liberal Party as they did, I can go back to Don Dunstan sacking a Police Commissioner (Salisbury from memory – an appointment from the UK) and the outrage by Murdoch and his Liberals.

    Again, IIRC, it was over dossiers the SA Police Force had compiled on Dunstan and other Labor identities.

    The fact SA Police had such dossiers saw Don act.

  16. https://twitter.com/timpallas/status/1067649047391961095
    Tim Pallas @timpallas
    Delighted to announce that I have declared victory in the seat of Werribee. I’ve spoken to my opponents – acknowledging their hard work and wishing them well. I’m so proud of all the Andrews Labor Government has achieved and look forward to continuing to deliver for Werribee.
    4:19 PM – 28 Nov 2018

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-28/victorian-opposition-matthew-guy-resigns-after-election-defeat/10558774
    Matthew Guy resigns as Victorian Opposition Leader after Liberals’ election battering

  17. Richard Willingham

    Verified account

    @rwillingham
    3m3 minutes ago
    More
    Labor AHEAD in Hawthorn by less than 50 votes on latest data #springst @abcmelbourne

  18. Pallas is either using ALP scrutineers` counts of the 2CP between Pallas and Garra or he is making assumptions (which will probably be correct, but there is an outside chance they won`t (such as if Carly-Jennings voters disobeyed the how to vote card in large enough numbers)).

  19. Richard Willingham

    Verified account

    @rwillingham
    1m1 minute ago
    More
    Even lesser in doubt!

    Labor ahead by 5 (five) votes in Morwell!!! #springst @abcmelbourne

    1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
    Reply 1 Retweet 1 Like 2 Direct message

  20. Just saw that too! I knew the ALP would overtake the Liberals on absents in Hawthorn, been predicting that the whole time. The only question now really is how many postals might trickle in on the last two days before counting ends on Friday, and will they be enough for the Liberals to get 48 more votes? My hunch says no and Hawthorn is the shock ALP gain of the election.

    Sandringham has certainly firmed up for the Liberals, only a small swing back to Labor so they are still over 400 votes behind.

    I also believe after this afternoon’s update that Sam Hibbins has lost Prahran. After absents and a big batch of out of district pre-polls being counted today, with absents being where Hibbins was likely to close the gap, Labor have extended their lead over the Greens to 430 votes.

    Surely there’s very little left to count, and with only around 1650 total minor party votes to distribute in the 3PP count, the Greens getting 431 more of them than Labor seems extremely unlikely.

    ALP also slightly extended their lead in Bayswater to 236 votes.

    So in light of today’s updates, the following results are looking increasingly likely:
    Hawthorn – ALP Gain
    Sandringham – LIB Retain (there wasn’t much doubt anyway, it was a long shot)
    Prahran – ALP Gain
    Bayswater – ALP Gain

  21. Will (or Kevin if you have any info), I know there were a lot of early votes which were counted after the polling-day votes, and I know there’s a reasonable number of postals and absents – but I’m puzzled that at 5pm Wednesday the VEC is still saying votes representing just under 60% of the enrolment have been counted. (See https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/Results/State2018/Summary.html ) Seems much lower than you’d expect for the Wednesday after the election. Are a lot of votes still filtering in, or are we going to find out that a lot of voters just didn’t bother this time???

  22. Another factor in where the Prahran count currently sits, is the large preference allocation the Liberals currently have in the 2PP count.

    34.8% primary vote, 42.6% 2PP vote – that’s almost an 8% boost from preferences where they generally only average in 5% in Prahran and surrounding (or overlapping federal) seats.

    Now, some of that could be an higher proportion of ALP preferences in the current count which I’ve mentioned, but it’s also likely that they have a pretty big share of the minor party prefereces; and the less of those 1650 minor party votes being split between Labor & Green, the harder it will be for the Greens to overtake Labor.

    eg. If 650 of those votes preferenced the Liberals, then the other 1000 will need to break 716-284 to the Greens for them to overtake Labor. Pretty much impossible.

  23. Roger et al,
    The Ombudsman has no investigative or police powers. Only the police can investigate crime. So what are they investigating? Nothing? No one responds to my query as to why Andrews wasn’t arrested? Why is it good enough for those on the lowest rung to be arrested but not the plotters? Andrews and his associates refused to co operate with this criminal probe at all. Can I do that if the police want to interview me?
    Andrews knew what he was doing was illegal, hence the $1000000 bill to cover it up. You find it acceptable for our supposedly apolitical police to deliberately ‘go slow’ for Andrews benefit? Labor campaigner Jake Finnegan demanded that Andrews and the ministers resign and former police commissioner Kel Glare wanted Andrews and co arrested.
    Victorians must know the truth.

  24. Looks the VEC is dribbling out the recheck data: Morwell still doesn’t include the Traralgon booth TPP but Northe now leads by 1000+. Suggest you wait until they issue their end of day update.

  25. @ Jeremy C Browne
    Who cares what Jake Finnegan thinks? Or Kel Glare for that matter? On what basis could Daniel Andrews have been arrested? There was never any suggestion whatsoever that he was in the frame.
    And yes, if you don’t want to co-operate with a police investigation, you’re well within your rights to tell them to piss off – and see whether they have enough to arrest you.

  26. @Jack – I haven’t checked to verify for sure, but I did read this morning that the VEC announced they would be prioritising the counting of absents, postals & out of district pre-polls in the marginal seats of Hawthorn, Bayswater, Ripon, Prahran, Morwell, etc today so it’s possible that a majority of the safe seats haven’t been updated with absents & out of district pre-polls yet (which could be 7000-8000 votes missing per seat).

  27. Interesting (but inconsequential) observation from today!

    The Liberal lead in blue-ribbon Brighton got slashed from 53% to 51% today after absent votes went 59-41 in favour of the 19 year old Labor candidate whose campaign had a budget of $1750!

  28. Northe leads Morwell by nearly 1400 votes. Traralgon has not been counted but Northe got 2000 vote gain out of pre-polls. Absent are still to come but the ALP have got virtually no swing. Shutting down Hazelwood so quick has not helped here. Ripon looks good for Labor with just a few votes behind and Absent to come but there has been stuff all swing here as well.

  29. Just to elaborate re Glare, I was a guest speaker at a Conference where he was also a guest speaker, delivering his address immediately prior to me

    In conversation with him he is blue blooded Liberal thru and thru

    One of the many problems Victoria Police have had and continue to have

  30. Anybody got a subscription to the HeraldScum?

    Liberals face losing Kelly O’Dwyer’s blue-riband Melbourne seat of Higgins at the next federal election, under new polling obtained by the Herald Sun: trib.al/6z66OAW #exclusive #auspol #springst

  31. Sprocket

    Very interesting re O’Dwyer

    Mind you, this only confirms what I put on this site recently courtesy of information from Liberal Party sources

    I did note that a serial contributor to these pages ridiculed me and my sources

    Well, guess what?

    There are other assessed safe seats where internal polling replicates the O’Dwyer polling

    I am told the real problem is not the polling per se, which can turn, but the continuing trend of the polling

    Momentum against the dysfunctional Federal Government continues to build at pace

    And I am told Liberal governments in SA, Tasmania and NSW is not helping the Liberal cause

    Meanwhile the Labor States have popular State governments, noting the white washes in Victoria, WA and the NT where the Liberals have been routed

  32. Even before Saturday I had a feeling Higgins would be VERY close and a possible loss for O’Dwyer, but after Saturday that hunch feels much more real. It’s a lot less “blue ribbon” overall than one would think because while it’s centred on the very blue ribbon Malvern state seat, it also contains enough of Prahran and Oakleigh to balance it out with a big enough swing in the Malvern heartland, and with a -11% swing in Malvern on Saturday it doesn’t look good for the Libs.

    @Jack – I just looked into the VEC numbers more and it looks like they just haven’t updated the % voted stats. Prahran is still showing around 29,000 total votes counted in that summary section, but when I added up the 2PP results around 38,000 votes have been counted.

  33. The reason for the low % counted would probably be that % counted is running off the % checked in the checked primary count, not the % counted in the unchecked primary count (which is higher). Some seats are showing with very low % counted in the check count.

    This is a much bigger problem with the Legislative Council count where they have regressed to 10% counted or so and as a result the ABC calculator output is garbage.

    Re Morwell at the point where Labor led by five votes in the re-alignment, only some of the pre-polls had been re-aligned. Yesterday I always had Northe on for something like the margin he has got except for one bit where a regression that was a bit dismissive of outliers wrongly said it was on the wire. He still has to be 2nd after preferences but it’s a formality.

    Something else to note is a lot of bounciness in out-of-electorate prepolls. I suspect they’re behaving like absents and moving around a lot depending on where they are from.

  34. https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/liberal-party-face-losing-higgins-mp-kelly-odwyer-poll/news-story/2ca29127e8e9348d8f8ff6e1a5ce493e

    Liberal Party face losing Higgins MP Kelly O’Dwyer: poll
    Rob Harris, Herald Sun
    November 28, 2018 8:00pm

    A blue-riband Melbourne Liberal seat, previously held by two prime ministers, would be lost at the next federal election under new polling obtained by the Herald Sun.

    Kelly O’Dwyer, one of the most senior women in the Morrison Government, would lose her seat to Labor on a two-party vote of 53-47 — reflecting the collapse of the Coalition’s vote at the Victorian state election.

    The ReachTEL poll of about 1000 voters in suburbs including Toorak, Armadale and Malvern and trendy South Yarra and Prahran on Tuesday night, showed a 14-point drop in the Liberals’ primary vote since the 2016 election.

    ……………………

    The poll, commissioned by the Construction, Forestry, Maritime, Mining and Energy Union, shows fewer than 35 per cent of voters under the age of 50 were prepared to vote for the Liberals, with the Greens also losing voters to Labor on the 2016 result.

    It used only party names and not those of the candidates, but showed the Liberal primary vote was just 38.6 per cent, ahead of Labor (32.5 per cent) and the Greens (18.8 per cent).

  35. In Higgins next year I’m predicting 2PP results against the Liberals of about 60-40 across suburbs like Glen Huntly, Carnegie & Hughesdale, probably about 55-45 against the Liberals in South Yarra, Murrumbeena & Ashburton, and up around 65-35 in Prahran.

    In most elections that would make it close but still struggle to compete with the stable 60-70% Liberal 2PPs across Toorak, Malvern, Glen Iris & Armadale and obviously the postal votes which would shift it back to the Libs. But if swings like the Victorian election reduce those Liberal 2PPs in their heartland suburbs to the 50-60% range, then it doesn’t look good for the Liberals.

  36. There are 4 seats still to be won, 6 are fairly safe on the in doubt list.
    Labor should win Baywater ( not enough postals left and they are not flowing to the Libs anyway now).
    Labor will win Nepean
    Labor will win Prahran
    Libs win Ferntree Gully
    Libs win Sandringham
    Greens win Brunswick
    Mildura not sure if enough postals left but Independent should win
    Benambra not sure as new 2pp required
    Hawthorn is toss up but favour ALP as late postals favour the left and not sure about Absents left
    Ripon has a few postals left, but no absents counted yet so labor should win

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