Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

After a Victorian election result decided entirely on state issues, a poll shows the Coalition doing every bit as badly at federal level.

A weekend to forget for the Coalition has been compounded by Newspoll’s finding that its federal operation is down yet another point, putting Labor’s lead at 55-45. Its primary vote is down a point to 34%, the equal lowest since the 2016 election, while Labor is steady on 40%, the Greens are unchanged on 9% and One Nation are up two to 6%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is down slightly, from 43-35 to 42-36. Nonetheless, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have improved since a fortnight ago, with approval up four to 43% and disapproval down five to 42%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 37% and steady on 50%. The poll will have been conducted Thursday to Sunday and the sample around 1700, although it’s not specified in the online report.

UPDATE: The sample size was 1717.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,597 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

  1. Rocket Rocket:

    I believe that ironically Morrison getting his hour in the sun as PM has finished his political career. If Dutton had been made PM then Morrison may well have had a future.

    I agree. As an opposition leader free of the baggage he now has, Morrison could well have been rather successful, especially if against a government that had been in office long enough for the public to start to go off them. If nothing else, he would have been able to remain a mainstay on the frontbench for many years to come.

    He’ll never get that chance now. I wonder if that’s started to sink in yet.

  2. TPOF @ #395 Monday, November 26th, 2018 – 2:43 pm

    Asha

    If only Shorten wasn’t leader. Instead of being poised to win government in an enormous landslide, the Labor Party might instead be poised to win government in a slightly more enormous landslide.

    ________________________________

    Personally, I think that these days a landslide victory is actually dangerous. Landslide victories give rise to hubris and a false sense of electoral security. They also remove valuable challenges to ill-considered policy and open the door to more extreme party members to push through their agendas. Recent examples are Howard after 2004 and, outstandingly, Campbell Newman in Queensland after 2012.

    While the partisan side of me wanted Labor to smash the Coalition in Victoria I am actually a little relieved that it will have the numbers to provide a challenging (but not destructive) opposition. And I think Federal Labor and the nation will be better served if it has a competent Opposition against it.

    I’d just like as few RWNJ’s in the parliament as possible.

  3. guytaur @ #373 Monday, November 26th, 2018 – 2:27 pm

    @murpharoo tweeted one hour ago

    If you are just tuning in, we cannot have @Indigocathy’s ICAC bill because @andrewprobyn could be found to be corrupt #auspol

    This Tweet goes to the extent and reach of a FICAC. That is, it is supposed that, as a government employee of the ABC, Andrew Probyn would be subject to it’s purview, even though he is a journalist just reporting on the government, like every other journo. Wheels within wheels stuff.

    So, McGowan’s Bill needs to go to a committee to sort this stuff out.

  4. This is a disaster of a QT for the LNP from my point of view. Exactly the same from this mob as before the Wentworth election let alone the Vic State one and following Newspoll.

  5. Rocket.

    He might, but most in the Libs will still be thinking it’s fake news and they’re going to get back in on postals for a week after the event.

    How could it be otherwise? All the media they read, watch and listen to was telling them how overwhelmingly popular they are with the silent majority.

  6. e.g. This earlier

    @QuentinDemptster tweets

    “If the government has nothing to hide … it has nothing to fear”, says @Wilkie in supporting the “compelling need” for a national anti-corruption commission in Australia. The public wants it, why not the LNP government?

  7. Asha Leu @ #403 Monday, November 26th, 2018 – 2:48 pm

    C@t:

    It was a joke, you humourless bore.

    You’re not very good at them then. You nasty piece of work. That’s what emojis are for. Or, you could have instead done what others do and put ( /sarcasm).at the end of your post. But no, you had to take the spiteful way out when your easily-misunderstood post was questioned. You must have a really high opinion of yourself to attack me so readily.

    Sad.

  8. Asha

    Interesting post on ex- PMs. The wildcard is of course Abbott post tye next election, though I note there is a very large campaign underway to stop us having to think about such an occurence.

  9. This article was a real shock, I had not realized how much of the Trump playbook this Government was following.
    If you have read The Fifth Risk by Michael Lewis then you will see the same destruction of value that the actions of this Government implies.
    As with the Fifth Risk, this government is going to leave Australia improvised, the real basis of good Government is a sound knowledge base and a bureaucracy that cares and does a good job.
    Dutton in particular has been hard at wrecking and leaving a system that wide open to corruption.
    In this article the writers discuss how one official in Border security was able to open up huge security holes for organised crime. No reason to believe that this didn’t happen with Islamists and importing weapons.

    Well worth a read

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/outgunned-federal-corruption-agencies-not-up-to-the-task-20181125-p50i6i.html

  10. Did you happen to hear Bill just as Albo was making his way to the dispatch box for his question. Those on the right were having a cheer and a chuckle.

    Bill said, “You won’t be laughing in a sec.”

    Albo question Shouty about why he was sacked.

  11. Just a little anecdotal polling for you.

    I had my 20 year reunion on the weekend.

    This is a group of 37-38yo men. Doctors, teachers, accountants, bankers, artists, etc. Young families for the most part. They are not happy with what’s been going on and negative gearing was not brought up once.

  12. I just can’t believe how politically tone deaf this Liberal Party and its leadership is. Whatever the merits, there is widespread public desire (not just support) for a national integrity commission.

    If Morrison had half a brain, he would have said that the government had concluded it was necessary, had been working on it hard for months and a well-considered proposal is coming shortly. Instead, prevaricating, complaining about the cross-bench bill and pointing out how naughty Labor members have been only shows how out of touch it is as they are actually arguing that it is urgently needed!

  13. Morrison’s learned nothing, exampled by his reply to a question from Drefus, even bringing up the ghost of Rex Jackson, who was gaoled way back in ’87 for accepting bribes in exchange for letting prisoners out of the slammer early. FauxMo’s a goose.

  14. TPOF:

    Personally, I think that these days a landslide victory is actually dangerous. Landslide victories give rise to hubris and a false sense of electoral security. They also remove valuable challenges to ill-considered policy and open the door to more extreme party members to push through their agendas. Recent examples are Howard after 2004 and, outstandingly, Campbell Newman in Queensland after 2012.

    While the partisan side of me wanted Labor to smash the Coalition in Victoria I am actually a little relieved that it will have the numbers to provide a challenging (but not destructive) opposition. And I think Federal Labor and the nation will be better served if it has a competent Opposition against it.

    Hmm. Well, I’d certainly agree that landslides are overrated.

    As long as you have the numbers to get your agenda through parliament without too much difficulty (and even an obstinate senate isn’t too much of a challenge with if you are diplomatic and/or crafty enough) and to provide enough of a buffer that you can appropriately deal with ministers and MPs on your side who get embroiled in scandal and/or general career-ending idiocy without having to worry about losing your majority, you are generally set. What happens come the next election comes down far more to how your government performs in that term than in the amount of seats you won last time. The latter’s mostly about bragging rights for us partisans who happen to be on the winning side.

    But personally don’t think winning in a thumping landslide is really too dangerous for the party who does so as long as they are self-aware enough not to wantonly abuse it in the way Howard and Newman* did. Now, Howard had been in office long enough that he may well have been stuffed regardless of what he did with his Senate majority (particularly once you consider the Rudd factor), but had Newman and the LNP been just a bit more reserved and pragmatic with their majority, they’d probably still be in power right now.

  15. @denniallen tweets

    So @ScottMorrisonMP thinks winning an election in a landslide on progressive policies is being “cocky”. No. It’s being very, very proud voters turned their backs on hate and fear and division. #auspol #MSM #QT

  16. Isn’t it the case that it’s Liberal Party members who have been jailed for fraud, theft and official corruption in Victoria recently?

  17. I too am rather surprised by just how big a joke Morrison has become. I have never thought he was particularly bright, but did think he was smart enough to attack least settle on a simple message and then just stay relentlessly on message.

    It seems he is stupid enough to believe he’s smart enough to freelance. Everything is just Brainfart after Brainfart hocum. The country hoped that we’d at least get someone serious, but we got a clown.

  18. Even Chrissy’s not got his heart in it. Talk about a deflated Tory Party following its drubbing in Victoria, last night’s Newspoll.

  19. Amy playing a blinder on Guardian blog today..
    Richard Marles to Scott Morrison:

    On Saturday, the people of Victoria rejected the Liberal Party’s record on cuts to schools, hospitals and infrastructure. What lessons as the Federal Government learned from Victoria?

    “Cuts, what cuts,” a government MP yells, but he may need to work on his annunciation, because I heard something verrrrrry different for a moment there.

  20. Amy Remeikis has a way with words:

    “Morrison:

    (Who has upgraded his shouting to “the Sharks being down two with three minutes on the clock”.)”

  21. IoM:

    The wildcard is of course Abbott post tye next election, though I note there is a very large campaign underway to stop us having to think about such an occurence.

    Personally, I think he’d be an absolute disaster, regardless of his past successes as opposition leader.
    There’s perhaps a chance that enough time has passed that everyone has forgotten how much they hated him (and, to be fair, Morrison is probably doing a sterling job helping everyone forget just what it was they disliked about the Abbott government), but I don’t it. He’s a spent force, with a devastating record as PM that a Shorten government would be able to point to again and again. The attack ads right themselves. On top of that, he’d be up against a (presumable) united and stable majority government, not a beleaguered minority government constantly being agitated against by its own members.

  22. Well spotted ratsak,

    He hasn’t got his 3 word slogans on high rotations as you would expect. More like blathering’s.
    “We’re going to give a go, you want a go, you get a go if you go”.
    “I’m looking to hear, I’m listening to look at hearing and listening to what I see.”
    “Cocky, digeridoo, big banana”

  23. Surprised that people are surprised that Morrison is a dud.

    Look at his career before parliament.

    As a minister for immigration he hid behind alleged security concerns.

    For first few months as Treasurer he just hid as he tried to get on top of his brief. Ideas he floated were quickly shot down.

    Then he came out shouting. And just kept on.

    Now he is PM he hid on plane rather than ride the bus.

    He went into hiding on Saturday night rather than comment on the Vic poll.

    Today he has come out shouting. ANd he will keep shouting because that is all he has got.

    He is a rolled gold first class fake.

  24. Plibersek

    More
    We have entered the twilight zone. @ScottMorrisonMP claiming @DanielAndrewsMP ‘s win on Saturday night is a ringing endorsement of @ScottMorrisonMP ‘s federal government.

  25. I think you saw a heartland and voter base, who turned around, and said to us ‘we’ve had enough’.

    You can go on saying this has got no federal implications, but sorry, not true.

    I sat there on polling booths, and every second person either gave you deadly silence, which is a very cold, deadly silence, or there were people mentioning energy, climate or the deposing of the prime minister.

    Now, I think we can get past that. I know the people who vote for me, I know them very well, and I can tell you they are not rusted on conservatives … they are a forward-looking, modern liberal community, and they sent us a message, very clearly.

    Tim Wilson MP

  26. I go back to a previous point i raised.

    Why is it that Labor partisans vigorously attack the Greens – but then applaud the Labor Party when they adopt Greens policies ?

  27. Amy on the Government backbenches.

    I am not sure there is a more visual representation of regret and despondency than what I am seeing in the government backbench right now.

  28. Scott Morrison calls an end to question time.

    Given the number of side conversations in the government benches, the text messages and the general malaise, it never really started for a lot of the Coalition today.

    Dismal. Absolutely dismal.

    From the Guardian blog

  29. The ALP are currently 56-44 (on the traditional Newspoll preference method), and look a shoe in. When was the last time the ALP won after only 2 terms in opposition?

    That would have been in 1914. In that case, they’d only been in opposition for a single year, when Prime Minister Joseph Cook made the very unwise decision to call an early election in an attempt to win a senate majority. World War I started in the middle of the campaign, and Labor under Andrew Fisher regained office due to the public perception that they were the safer option in wartime.

  30. Does anyone know how the summit between Scott Morrison and the Victorian Liberal contingent went today? I have been out and unplugged.

    Was it even reported?

  31. Kerryn Phelps delivers first speech
    Darren Chester calls for a suspension of standing orders to allow Kerryn Phelps to deliver her maiden speech.

    Most of Labor and all of the crossbench, except for Bob Katter, are still in the chamber.

    Less than 20 government MPs remain, Julie Bishop and Julia Banks are watching, as is John Alexander, Trent Zimmerman and Warren Entsch, Julian Leeser, Tim Wilson, Andrew Lamming, Sarah Henderson, Kelly O’Dwyer, Ken Wyatt and Christopher Pyne are among them.

    From the Guardian.

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