Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

After a Victorian election result decided entirely on state issues, a poll shows the Coalition doing every bit as badly at federal level.

A weekend to forget for the Coalition has been compounded by Newspoll’s finding that its federal operation is down yet another point, putting Labor’s lead at 55-45. Its primary vote is down a point to 34%, the equal lowest since the 2016 election, while Labor is steady on 40%, the Greens are unchanged on 9% and One Nation are up two to 6%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is down slightly, from 43-35 to 42-36. Nonetheless, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have improved since a fortnight ago, with approval up four to 43% and disapproval down five to 42%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 37% and steady on 50%. The poll will have been conducted Thursday to Sunday and the sample around 1700, although it’s not specified in the online report.

UPDATE: The sample size was 1717.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,597 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

  1. Eric A. is one of the really good reasons not to watch Q&A. There are others.

    Surely the ABC have figured this out by now. Maybe they have no choice – it is probably up to the Minister to say who does & does not get on the panel.

  2. Thanks as always BK, you do a fantastic job, and it is the highlight of the day’s posts on PB, and very useful.

    I note this from one of your links:


    The prime minister’s approval rating is up four points in a fortnight, and his disapproval down five. Morrison also remains ahead of Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister on 46%, up four points, to Shorten’s 34%, down two.

    As many other posters have commented, the PPM measure is not worth the electrons it is made of.

    This is brought home by the maths of the situation. If the PPM meant anything, it would track with the 2PP figures, and it is not remotely close to them, either in the absolute value, nor in the movement.

    The movement of PPM jumps around like a rabbit, but the 2PP poll figures are usually very steady.

    Maybe the pollsters just put them in to indicate that they are measuring something. As others have commented also, maybe people simply don’t read the question properly, and read the question as “Which one is our prime minister?”

    Do we have any psephs who have access to historical PPM figures when, say, Rudd was PM?

    Or more to the point, Abbott before he won the 2013 election?

    I do recognise that Paul Keating when he was in power had abysmal personal ratings, from memory.

  3. Don

    When Keating became PM he had the cartoonists undertaker image of unpopularity to deal with. Its why it was called the unloseable election by commentators from memory.

  4. This roll over on the federal ICAC won’t save the government one vote. It’s just grist to the mill – they leaped at any opportunity to stick it to their opponents with RCs into the Batts scheme and the unions, but had to be dragged kicking and screaming into issues which actually matter to people. The ads write themselves.

  5. The media, for so long the Coalition’s biggest advantage is now very likely flipped to being their greatest liability.

    The echo chamber of stupid in the Murdochracy and radio deludes them into thinking the lunatic fringe they are playing to is mainstream. Even in the less rubbish media ‘balance’ and race calling sees their Brainfarts treated as serious when on any sensible measure they are fit for nought but ridicule.

    At times where Labor also fucks up the Coalition can sometimes get away with this narrowcasting to nutters. But if Labor is holding it together far too many people are just turned off by the culture warring and stupidity the Coalition play up cause it plays well with News Ltd, Sky after dark and ratbag radio.

    We’ve seen it so often lately. The things the media have said would be decisive before the vote turn out to have just turned the voters off. I’m not sure the Libs can actually re-engage with reality unless and until the media does.

  6. Burgey

    This roll over on the federal ICAC won’t save the government one vote.
    _____________________________________

    At this stage they are terrified about the uncontrolled bleeding. Actually saving votes has to wait.

  7. Pleasantries out the window in Victorian Liberal Party 😉

    …In a sign of the anger within the party over its big loss on Saturday, Melbourne businessman Ian Quick issued a blistering attack on the campaign, Opposition leader Matthew Guy and state president Michael Kroger that claimed an ex-director jailed for stealing money, Damien Mantach, would have done a better job.

    “There was no aspect of this campaign that was not stuffed up on a daily basis,” Mr Quick wrote to party members on Sunday. “Even Mantach, while stealing money, ran a better-organised campaign. That should shame many people.”…

    The outspoken Mr Quick has long been a critic of Mr Kroger and the party’s conservative faction, which he blames for moving the party to the right and making it less popular with voters. Liberal administrative committee member Ian Quick…

    One senior Liberal official described Mr Quick “as a pariah of the party who most people wanted to expel.”

    https://www.afr.com/news/politics/victorian-liberals-rip-into-each-other-over-loss-20181125-h18cep

  8. From the graun:

    18m ago 13:14

    Richard Di Natale is chatting to the ABC.

    On the Victorian result, he has this to say:

    No question it was a grubby campaign from Labor. They have a massive dirt unit. They turned their guns on us. They knew they were safe. And they turned their guns on us. To me is that we need to improve the way that we vet our candidates.

    It’s Labor’s fault that the green picked shit candidates.
    The greens LNP same same

  9. Lets assume that Dutton had to move on Turnbull for self and Queensland preservation reasons.

    I can see some logic in that if one thought that there wasnt much room for ALP to win seats in Vic, Tas, SA… and veering right might save some furniture in WA and Qld.

    Boy, that Vic election shows how a low-road right populist campaign can actually bring seats into play that the coalition were never dreaming of losing. They totally underestimated how Turnbull might have been keeping them in touch.

    Anyway having settled for ScoMo as a less unpleasant proposition to Dutton (which is really saying something abt Dutton)… unsure what furniture he’s going to save in Qld, doesnt look like he’s helping in WA at all (treatment of JBish might be a factor), and now from maybe 1-2 seats losable in Vic/SA/TAs the picture looks a fair bit more dire.

    NSW is the floodgate… Turnbull was definitely keeping the Coalition competitive there, Shorten hasnt quite closed the sale there yet – NSW election coming up as well, with a totally incompetent coalition incumbent up against an anonymous opposition who just lost its leader under shameful circumstances. I’d be watching NSW polling v carefully… i dont think turfing Turnbull has gone down well at all in NSW, but then again as others have pointed out NSW is arguably the most conservative state in the country at the moment.

    There isnt a play to win the coalition an election from here that i can see (short of Bill doing a Luke Foley or something equivalent), but whereas Turnbull was probably keeping the ALP to sub-85 seats a whole new range has opened up since he was removed. I’m sure most Libs could see Dutton losing a further 10 seats and therefore went ScoMo… but boy he might not prove much better at the rate he is going so far.

    Absolute karma for me would be Dutton losing his seat (Tone getting targeted by a credible independent is too much to hope for). So stupid turfing Turnbull just from an electoral strategy perspective… but i can see maybe Dutton had to go for it to keep his seat, which means his tribe had to back him, and so it happened. The majority of the party though should have installed JBish and saved ScoMo for oppostion leader?

    I’m still trying to work out ScoMo’s thinking in taking the gig now. I guess he has a large enough ego to think he could really win an election, what will he do after they lose – try and stay on as opp leader? Has anyone ever done that after losing govt… maybe Springborg in Qld?

  10. For some reason that is beyond my ken, Turnbull maintained a magic enchantment over the mainstream media. No matter how disappointing and incompetent he showed himself, they could not bring themselves, they could not bring themselves to seriously criticise him while he was in Parliament. By extension, anything his government did while he was PM was explained away or accepted uncritically by too many of them.

    When the Liberal Party sacked him, not only did they destroy the only electoral asset they had, but they seem to have broken the magic protection spell that had been cast over the Coalition. Suddenly the media are seeing what the rest of us have been seeing for a long time – that we are governed by a party that stands for nothing but their own survival and that has no values but their personal bank balances and their egos. And worst of all that has all the competence of a kindergarten class trying to construct a house – so graphically illustrated by the soon to be erstwhile Home Affairs Minister failing at fence building.

    Bill Shorten and Labor have a fabulous opportunity to give the Australian public what it wants (including the dyed-in-the-wool Liberal Party voters) stability and common sense. He may not be loved by the public and, especially, by the media because he is dry and uncharismatic, but it is those very qualities that suit these times, so long as they are allied with reasonable and stable.

  11. [To me is that we need to improve the way that we vet our candidates. ]

    The greens need to learn how to manage a crisis. This one started out as a shambles and actually got worse as each day passed.

  12. Dovey
    says:
    Monday, November 26, 2018 at 1:25 pm
    P1 and Nath, great reasons to use the block function.
    ________________________
    nath is very funny and something of a raconteur. I have certainly found his contributions more amusing and interesting than Dovey.

  13. ‘They have a massive dirt unit. They turned their guns on us. They knew they were safe.’

    Because di Natale doesn’t have a massive dirt unit? Or because they DID vet their candidates?

    Apparently it’s Labor’s fault the Greens preselected candidates.

  14. Also reading the Guardian live blog with updates on a federal integrity commission, and the security services and the are government pushing for the security bill.

    There appears to be a disconnect.

    One one hand they are arguing against unintended consequences and innocent people getting convicted and on the security bill; not so much.

  15. sprocket_

    I thought your earlier comment about Erica being on Qanda was a joke, and a funny one at that.

    I rarely watch it, and even though it may be amusing, like most Australians I now just turn off the TV when I see most federal Coalition people speaking. They truly have no idea how on the nose they are, despite Wagga Wagga, despite Wentworth, despite Victoria. They may never realize, even if they lose.

    If they keep up the way they are going, they are going to make it much worse for themselves because more and more Australians will just be so sick of their crap, even previously rusted-on Liberals as seen in places like Brighton on Saturday, that they will end up losing federal seats no-one ever dreamed they could lose. Which will be great.

  16. Snippets from the car radio today – a trifecta of totally delusional talking heads.

    – Jones dismissing Berejiklian and claiming Libs need to go hard right

    – Abbott on news also claiming Libs need to go hard right

    – Hadley strongly pro Molan

  17. don

    From memory, Kennett was still “preferred Premier” in a poll taken after the 1999 election but before the special Frankston election (because one candidate died just before election day) and the three independents put Bracks into the office.

  18. don @ #308 Monday, November 26th, 2018 – 1:24 pm

    Thanks as always BK, you do a fantastic job, and it is the highlight of the day’s posts on PB, and very useful.

    I note this from one of your links:


    The prime minister’s approval rating is up four points in a fortnight, and his disapproval down five. Morrison also remains ahead of Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister on 46%, up four points, to Shorten’s 34%, down two.

    As many other posters have commented, the PPM measure is not worth the electrons it is made of.

    This is brought home by the maths of the situation. If the PPM meant anything, it would track with the 2PP figures, and it is not remotely close to them, either in the absolute value, nor in the movement.

    The movement of PPM jumps around like a rabbit, but the 2PP poll figures are usually very steady.

    Maybe the pollsters just put them in to indicate that they are measuring something. As others have commented also, maybe people simply don’t read the question properly, and read the question as “Which one is our prime minister?”

    Do we have any psephs who have access to historical PPM figures when, say, Rudd was PM?

    Or more to the point, Abbott before he won the 2013 election?

    I do recognise that Paul Keating when he was in power had abysmal personal ratings, from memory.

    Bill Shortens poor personal standing logically costs Labor 2PP points. How many points it costs Labor is up for debate.

  19. @KarenMiddleton tweets

    Shadow attorney-general Mark Dreyfus has suggested the intell & security committee now being urged to expedite its scrutiny of encryption bill could produce an interim report supporting new powers to access encrypted info but only for counter terrorism investigations, not more

  20. zoomster @ #325 Monday, November 26th, 2018 – 1:41 pm

    ‘They have a massive dirt unit. They turned their guns on us. They knew they were safe.’

    Because di Natale doesn’t have a massive dirt unit? Or because they DID vet their candidates?

    Apparently it’s Labor’s fault the Greens preselected candidates.

    Given the Andrews Govt’ adoption of Greens policy it’s an achievement for the Greens to still get above 9% of the PV.

  21. Robert Ball @ #313 Monday, November 26th, 2018 – 1:29 pm

    Where is this vaunted block function?

    The Block function is part of an Addon for both Firefox and Chrome for Desktop and Laptop computers and also Firefox for Android devices.

    Chrome Extension
    https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/pb-comments-plugin/onjomgpfepfmffelldjhpapljdfiodpi
    Firefox Plugin
    https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/pb-comments-plugin

    For myself, I seldom use this function and then only for a short while until whatever has disrupted the space time continuum stabilizes.

  22. Expat follower

    I still believe that Dutton was just the “Patsy” for Abbott – Abbott more than anything wanted revenge against Turnbull, and convinced Dutton that he could be PM (and save his seat). Abbott got what he wanted above all else (for the moment – he still craves “The Precious” ie the Prime Ministership, but he can put that on hold for the future). If it means the Coalition gets destroyed in 2019 I’m sure he probably still thinks it was worth it. Purification. Cleansing.

  23. GG, no i mean going from being PM/Premier into Opp Leader. Yup, Whitlam was one (and probably a good precedent for it not being a great idea). I cant think of another, maybe one of the Qld Nat premiers i was guessing (wasnt here so cant recall off the top of my head)

  24. Robert Ball

    The block function, once installed, can be easily turned on and off, which is handy when one argumentative voice dominates for a day.

  25. Rocket – yeah i suppose the more a landslide “rump” left over for the Libs, its probable (1) they are a conservative-heavy mob, and (2) might turn back to Abbott. Pshew that is some “lose a battle to win the war” strategy, though

  26. Laocoon

    …In a sign of the anger within the party over its big loss on Saturday, Melbourne businessman Ian Quick issued a blistering attack on the campaign, Opposition leader Matthew Guy and state president Michael Kroger that claimed an ex-director jailed for stealing money, Damien Mantach, would have done a better job.

    Who among the Liberals would ever have thought that being ‘tough on crime’ and jailing people such as Mantach could have been detrimental to their chances?

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