A weekend to forget for the Coalition has been compounded by Newspoll’s finding that its federal operation is down yet another point, putting Labor’s lead at 55-45. Its primary vote is down a point to 34%, the equal lowest since the 2016 election, while Labor is steady on 40%, the Greens are unchanged on 9% and One Nation are up two to 6%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is down slightly, from 43-35 to 42-36. Nonetheless, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have improved since a fortnight ago, with approval up four to 43% and disapproval down five to 42%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 37% and steady on 50%. The poll will have been conducted Thursday to Sunday and the sample around 1700, although it’s not specified in the online report.
UPDATE: The sample size was 1717.
BK
Erica – Parliaments most odious figure, perhaps in a dead heat with Dutton.
sprocket_ at 12:48 pm
They had important fight club meetings to attend.
Erica is odious, has been a powerbroker for the dark forces for a long time
P1
No your comments make plain you don’t get the point of my reply to zoid and my yes you are right p1 post.
Eric A. is one of the really good reasons not to watch Q&A. There are others.
Surely the ABC have figured this out by now. Maybe they have no choice – it is probably up to the Minister to say who does & does not get on the panel.
I forget. Is he the fat one with the glasses, or the bald, older one?
lol still raging on @Player One ?
Thanks as always BK, you do a fantastic job, and it is the highlight of the day’s posts on PB, and very useful.
I note this from one of your links:
The prime minister’s approval rating is up four points in a fortnight, and his disapproval down five. Morrison also remains ahead of Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister on 46%, up four points, to Shorten’s 34%, down two.
As many other posters have commented, the PPM measure is not worth the electrons it is made of.
This is brought home by the maths of the situation. If the PPM meant anything, it would track with the 2PP figures, and it is not remotely close to them, either in the absolute value, nor in the movement.
The movement of PPM jumps around like a rabbit, but the 2PP poll figures are usually very steady.
Maybe the pollsters just put them in to indicate that they are measuring something. As others have commented also, maybe people simply don’t read the question properly, and read the question as “Which one is our prime minister?”
Do we have any psephs who have access to historical PPM figures when, say, Rudd was PM?
Or more to the point, Abbott before he won the 2013 election?
I do recognise that Paul Keating when he was in power had abysmal personal ratings, from memory.
P1 and Nath, great reasons to use the block function.
Don
When Keating became PM he had the cartoonists undertaker image of unpopularity to deal with. Its why it was called the unloseable election by commentators from memory.
This roll over on the federal ICAC won’t save the government one vote. It’s just grist to the mill – they leaped at any opportunity to stick it to their opponents with RCs into the Batts scheme and the unions, but had to be dragged kicking and screaming into issues which actually matter to people. The ads write themselves.
The media, for so long the Coalition’s biggest advantage is now very likely flipped to being their greatest liability.
The echo chamber of stupid in the Murdochracy and radio deludes them into thinking the lunatic fringe they are playing to is mainstream. Even in the less rubbish media ‘balance’ and race calling sees their Brainfarts treated as serious when on any sensible measure they are fit for nought but ridicule.
At times where Labor also fucks up the Coalition can sometimes get away with this narrowcasting to nutters. But if Labor is holding it together far too many people are just turned off by the culture warring and stupidity the Coalition play up cause it plays well with News Ltd, Sky after dark and ratbag radio.
We’ve seen it so often lately. The things the media have said would be decisive before the vote turn out to have just turned the voters off. I’m not sure the Libs can actually re-engage with reality unless and until the media does.
Where is this vaunted block function?
Zoidlord @ #307 Monday, November 26th, 2018 – 1:19 pm
Are you going to surprise us all and contribute something sensible?
Burgey
This roll over on the federal ICAC won’t save the government one vote.
_____________________________________
At this stage they are terrified about the uncontrolled bleeding. Actually saving votes has to wait.
Dovey @ #309 Monday, November 26th, 2018 – 1:25 pm
Feeling neglected, Dovey?
Pleasantries out the window in Victorian Liberal Party 😉
…In a sign of the anger within the party over its big loss on Saturday, Melbourne businessman Ian Quick issued a blistering attack on the campaign, Opposition leader Matthew Guy and state president Michael Kroger that claimed an ex-director jailed for stealing money, Damien Mantach, would have done a better job.
“There was no aspect of this campaign that was not stuffed up on a daily basis,” Mr Quick wrote to party members on Sunday. “Even Mantach, while stealing money, ran a better-organised campaign. That should shame many people.”…
The outspoken Mr Quick has long been a critic of Mr Kroger and the party’s conservative faction, which he blames for moving the party to the right and making it less popular with voters. Liberal administrative committee member Ian Quick…
One senior Liberal official described Mr Quick “as a pariah of the party who most people wanted to expel.”
https://www.afr.com/news/politics/victorian-liberals-rip-into-each-other-over-loss-20181125-h18cep
Porter doing well attacking the cross bench over anti corruption 😆
Just shown on News 24
Andrew Probyn:
The Horse has bolted
From the graun:
It’s Labor’s fault that the green picked shit candidates.
The greens LNP same same
Vogon Poet @ #319 Monday, November 26th, 2018 – 1:34 pm
It’s finally dawning on Di Natale that his days are numbered.
Lets assume that Dutton had to move on Turnbull for self and Queensland preservation reasons.
I can see some logic in that if one thought that there wasnt much room for ALP to win seats in Vic, Tas, SA… and veering right might save some furniture in WA and Qld.
Boy, that Vic election shows how a low-road right populist campaign can actually bring seats into play that the coalition were never dreaming of losing. They totally underestimated how Turnbull might have been keeping them in touch.
Anyway having settled for ScoMo as a less unpleasant proposition to Dutton (which is really saying something abt Dutton)… unsure what furniture he’s going to save in Qld, doesnt look like he’s helping in WA at all (treatment of JBish might be a factor), and now from maybe 1-2 seats losable in Vic/SA/TAs the picture looks a fair bit more dire.
NSW is the floodgate… Turnbull was definitely keeping the Coalition competitive there, Shorten hasnt quite closed the sale there yet – NSW election coming up as well, with a totally incompetent coalition incumbent up against an anonymous opposition who just lost its leader under shameful circumstances. I’d be watching NSW polling v carefully… i dont think turfing Turnbull has gone down well at all in NSW, but then again as others have pointed out NSW is arguably the most conservative state in the country at the moment.
There isnt a play to win the coalition an election from here that i can see (short of Bill doing a Luke Foley or something equivalent), but whereas Turnbull was probably keeping the ALP to sub-85 seats a whole new range has opened up since he was removed. I’m sure most Libs could see Dutton losing a further 10 seats and therefore went ScoMo… but boy he might not prove much better at the rate he is going so far.
Absolute karma for me would be Dutton losing his seat (Tone getting targeted by a credible independent is too much to hope for). So stupid turfing Turnbull just from an electoral strategy perspective… but i can see maybe Dutton had to go for it to keep his seat, which means his tribe had to back him, and so it happened. The majority of the party though should have installed JBish and saved ScoMo for oppostion leader?
I’m still trying to work out ScoMo’s thinking in taking the gig now. I guess he has a large enough ego to think he could really win an election, what will he do after they lose – try and stay on as opp leader? Has anyone ever done that after losing govt… maybe Springborg in Qld?
For some reason that is beyond my ken, Turnbull maintained a magic enchantment over the mainstream media. No matter how disappointing and incompetent he showed himself, they could not bring themselves, they could not bring themselves to seriously criticise him while he was in Parliament. By extension, anything his government did while he was PM was explained away or accepted uncritically by too many of them.
When the Liberal Party sacked him, not only did they destroy the only electoral asset they had, but they seem to have broken the magic protection spell that had been cast over the Coalition. Suddenly the media are seeing what the rest of us have been seeing for a long time – that we are governed by a party that stands for nothing but their own survival and that has no values but their personal bank balances and their egos. And worst of all that has all the competence of a kindergarten class trying to construct a house – so graphically illustrated by the soon to be erstwhile Home Affairs Minister failing at fence building.
Bill Shorten and Labor have a fabulous opportunity to give the Australian public what it wants (including the dyed-in-the-wool Liberal Party voters) stability and common sense. He may not be loved by the public and, especially, by the media because he is dry and uncharismatic, but it is those very qualities that suit these times, so long as they are allied with reasonable and stable.
[To me is that we need to improve the way that we vet our candidates. ]
The greens need to learn how to manage a crisis. This one started out as a shambles and actually got worse as each day passed.
Dovey
says:
Monday, November 26, 2018 at 1:25 pm
P1 and Nath, great reasons to use the block function.
________________________
nath is very funny and something of a raconteur. I have certainly found his contributions more amusing and interesting than Dovey.
‘They have a massive dirt unit. They turned their guns on us. They knew they were safe.’
Because di Natale doesn’t have a massive dirt unit? Or because they DID vet their candidates?
Apparently it’s Labor’s fault the Greens preselected candidates.
Expat, certainly Gough in 1975. Though the circumstances are different.
Tony Abbott after 2010 and Menzies in 1946.
Labor have done it a few times including Beazley, Whitlam , Hayden, Caldwell,
Also reading the Guardian live blog with updates on a federal integrity commission, and the security services and the are government pushing for the security bill.
There appears to be a disconnect.
One one hand they are arguing against unintended consequences and innocent people getting convicted and on the security bill; not so much.
Quick someone call a Waaaaaaambulance for RDN.
sprocket_
I thought your earlier comment about Erica being on Qanda was a joke, and a funny one at that.
I rarely watch it, and even though it may be amusing, like most Australians I now just turn off the TV when I see most federal Coalition people speaking. They truly have no idea how on the nose they are, despite Wagga Wagga, despite Wentworth, despite Victoria. They may never realize, even if they lose.
If they keep up the way they are going, they are going to make it much worse for themselves because more and more Australians will just be so sick of their crap, even previously rusted-on Liberals as seen in places like Brighton on Saturday, that they will end up losing federal seats no-one ever dreamed they could lose. Which will be great.
Snippets from the car radio today – a trifecta of totally delusional talking heads.
– Jones dismissing Berejiklian and claiming Libs need to go hard right
– Abbott on news also claiming Libs need to go hard right
– Hadley strongly pro Molan
Citizen
Totally out of touch. Jones and Hadley are doing a great job for the Labor party.Keep up the good work lads.
Dee Madigan reveals that Scott Morrison is not very bright.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1066661032922308608
don
From memory, Kennett was still “preferred Premier” in a poll taken after the 1999 election but before the special Frankston election (because one candidate died just before election day) and the three independents put Bracks into the office.
don @ #308 Monday, November 26th, 2018 – 1:24 pm
Bill Shortens poor personal standing logically costs Labor 2PP points. How many points it costs Labor is up for debate.
@KarenMiddleton tweets
Shadow attorney-general Mark Dreyfus has suggested the intell & security committee now being urged to expedite its scrutiny of encryption bill could produce an interim report supporting new powers to access encrypted info but only for counter terrorism investigations, not more
zoomster @ #325 Monday, November 26th, 2018 – 1:41 pm
Given the Andrews Govt’ adoption of Greens policy it’s an achievement for the Greens to still get above 9% of the PV.
Rex, they are front by 10 points according to Newspoll….not sure if your point is relevant. Maybe if it was 51-49
Robert Ball @ #313 Monday, November 26th, 2018 – 1:29 pm
The Block function is part of an Addon for both Firefox and Chrome for Desktop and Laptop computers and also Firefox for Android devices.
Chrome Extension
https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/pb-comments-plugin/onjomgpfepfmffelldjhpapljdfiodpi
Firefox Plugin
https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/pb-comments-plugin
For myself, I seldom use this function and then only for a short while until whatever has disrupted the space time continuum stabilizes.
Greensborough Growler @ #333 Monday, November 26th, 2018 – 12:53 pm
Absolutely lovely. And a not so subtle dig at the guy on the left.
Him: “I don’t think you can say the Prime Minister is not very bright.”
Her: “I just did.”
Others: (trying hard not to laugh)
SCOUT @ #338 Monday, November 26th, 2018 – 1:59 pm
If it’s 55-45 with the unpopular Shorten as leader it would be more with a better received leader/spokesperson.
Expat follower
I still believe that Dutton was just the “Patsy” for Abbott – Abbott more than anything wanted revenge against Turnbull, and convinced Dutton that he could be PM (and save his seat). Abbott got what he wanted above all else (for the moment – he still craves “The Precious” ie the Prime Ministership, but he can put that on hold for the future). If it means the Coalition gets destroyed in 2019 I’m sure he probably still thinks it was worth it. Purification. Cleansing.
Morrison starts with exploiting the Melbourne incident.
Got to keep their only card in the air.
GG, no i mean going from being PM/Premier into Opp Leader. Yup, Whitlam was one (and probably a good precedent for it not being a great idea). I cant think of another, maybe one of the Qld Nat premiers i was guessing (wasnt here so cant recall off the top of my head)
Robert Ball
The block function, once installed, can be easily turned on and off, which is handy when one argumentative voice dominates for a day.
Rocket – yeah i suppose the more a landslide “rump” left over for the Libs, its probable (1) they are a conservative-heavy mob, and (2) might turn back to Abbott. Pshew that is some “lose a battle to win the war” strategy, though
Morrison about to roll out the fridge magnets campaign again, in the post to you soon
lizzie @ #345 Monday, November 26th, 2018 – 2:04 pm
Now, when has that ever happened? 🙂
I believe Federal Labor’s suppressed vote is caused by the negative gearing reforms being proposed.
Laocoon
…In a sign of the anger within the party over its big loss on Saturday, Melbourne businessman Ian Quick issued a blistering attack on the campaign, Opposition leader Matthew Guy and state president Michael Kroger that claimed an ex-director jailed for stealing money, Damien Mantach, would have done a better job.
Who among the Liberals would ever have thought that being ‘tough on crime’ and jailing people such as Mantach could have been detrimental to their chances?