Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

After a Victorian election result decided entirely on state issues, a poll shows the Coalition doing every bit as badly at federal level.

A weekend to forget for the Coalition has been compounded by Newspoll’s finding that its federal operation is down yet another point, putting Labor’s lead at 55-45. Its primary vote is down a point to 34%, the equal lowest since the 2016 election, while Labor is steady on 40%, the Greens are unchanged on 9% and One Nation are up two to 6%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is down slightly, from 43-35 to 42-36. Nonetheless, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have improved since a fortnight ago, with approval up four to 43% and disapproval down five to 42%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 37% and steady on 50%. The poll will have been conducted Thursday to Sunday and the sample around 1700, although it’s not specified in the online report.

UPDATE: The sample size was 1717.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,597 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

  1. That Chris Kenny tweet is proof that peak derp has been reached.

    1. Responding to his own tweet.
    2. Saying that he has no clue, and what he posted before was bullshit.
    3. Claiming that what he now is saying is true, indeed obvious.

  2. @Player One

    I did.

    I LOL again.

    Just like China on Coal, USA won’t move on Coal either. USA and China has too much vested interests to back off, money is more important than anything else.

    Just like in USA, where if there is a incident with food (such as recent lettuce scandals), they will be removed from the shelves, but there are over 300 mass shootings in USA this year, they will not remove Guns from Walmart etc.

    But that doesn’t other countries should just ignore renewable.

    Either you work for someone that has invested interest, or a liberal/right wing who wants to profit from the situation.

  3. Zoidlord @ #253 Monday, November 26th, 2018 – 11:44 am

    @Player One

    I did.

    I LOL again.

    Just like China on Coal, USA won’t move on Coal either. USA and China has too much vested interests to back off, money is more important than anything else.

    Just like in USA, where if there is a incident with food (such as recent lettuce scandals), they will be removed from the shelves, but there are over 300 mass shootings in USA this year, they will not remove Guns from Walmart etc.

    But that doesn’t other countries should just ignore renewable.

    Either you work for someone that has invested interest, or a liberal/right wing who wants to profit from the situation.

    I have no idea what your post is about, or what point you are trying to make. But If you think either I or the article I quoted from are pro-coal, then you need to work on your comprehension skills.

  4. Frankly an 07 scale win will be a touch on the disappointing side. I think anyone thinking that is indulging in the same sort of thinking that imagined this Newspoll would be a 52 or that Dan would struggle to win a majority.

    The Liberals are a complete fucking rabble. Nationwide. Howard v Peacock and Joh for PM had absolutely nothing on what a dysfunctional clusterfuck they have become.

    And pretty much every real world test where voters have a proper say in the last three years confirms that the reality of what a bunch of dickheads they are hasn’t been missed by those voters.

    It’s not like when Howard could bribe his troubles away. The Liberals are being held hostage by fuckwits. Middle Australia will reject them without mercy.

  5. Bugger giving Obrestgrouppenfuhrer Kartoffelkopf an au pair: Labor should crack on with a NOM to refer him to the High Court and also to push through the Integrity Commission Bill.

  6. Barney

    …whereas I’d say there’s at least some chance that some federal pollie, somewhere, sometime, might be involved in a bit of dodgy behaviour which might do with a bit of investigating….

  7. Zoomster

    Except for some who might agree with them I think its only the LNP voting against an anti corruption body.

    Even Dio Wang from Palmer’s United Party voted for an inquiry to establish one back in 2016

  8. P1

    I have not read the article. Just the excerpt Lizzie posted.

    It was clear what it was about. It was explaining why Coal has a mythology attached to it and thats why you have the likes of Trump and Abbott being pro coal if you ignore the vested interest of the coal industry itself.

  9. I’m not sure this will help the Potato’s recovery. 🙂

    Bob Katter, after receiving a few bucket loads of money for north Queensland water projects, is not in favour of referring Peter Dutton to the high court. But it appears that everyone else on the crossbench, as well as Labor, is. So if a government MP goes AWOL, or Katter doesn’t turn up, you could see a sudden vote called on. Unlikely, but not impossible

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2018/nov/26/scott-morrison-victoria-labor-coalition-politics-live

  10. guytaur @ #267 Monday, November 26th, 2018 – 12:09 pm

    P1

    I have not read the article. Just the excerpt Lizzie posted.

    It was clear what it was about. It was explaining why Coal has a mythology attached to it and thats why you have the likes of Trump and Abbott being pro coal if you ignore the vested interest of the coal industry itself.

    You and zoidlord both seem to have no clue what the article is about.

    Try reading it before making any further comment.

  11. p1

    I read Lizzie’s excerpt. I don’t want to read more than that. Unless you can point to where it says invest in coal I am not embarrassing myself you are.

    I asked a question you don’t want to answer except with read the article so convince me I am wrong and I will read it to see how. Surely thats not beyond you.

  12. That painting of Bishop is truly hideous.
    Captures her perfectly.

    Also, if a Federal ICAC is not needed – fine- set one up and the Commissioner can sit in their office playing Tetris..

  13. Thank you sprocket_ (5:46 am). Tim Wilson’s language is revealing too.

    either … start finding how to advance our values through our diverse modern ­society, or keep trying to force reality through our priorities.
    He wants to switch tactics from force to stealth. He has worked out that he can’t force us, so his solution is to change how he gets us there. He stopped listening to us, I suspect a long time ago. (What I like is how many of us have stopped listening to him.)

    Soft liberal voters
    He judges the voters who rejected his party, and labels them soft.

  14. “Delores Umbridge”

    🙂 First thing i thought of when i saw that picture of Bishop in front of the speakers chair were the Seagulls from Finding Nemo.

    “Mine…….Mine…..Mine………”

  15. guytaur @ #276 Monday, November 26th, 2018 – 12:24 pm

    p1

    I read Lizzie’s excerpt. I don’t want to read more than that. Unless you can point to where it says invest in coal I am not embarrassing myself you are.

    I asked a question you don’t want to answer except with read the article so convince me I am wrong and I will read it to see how. Surely thats not beyond you.

    Oh, for goodness sake. The article does not say to invest in coal. It explains why coal is still going strong despite us knowing we need to eliminate it, and fast. Here is the actual headline – you clearly didn’t even bother to open the article to read even that far …

    The World Needs to Quit Coal. Why Is It So Hard?

    Why do you involve yourself in these discussions at all?

  16. I have had a good look at the Ms. Bishop picture.

    The hair helmet is not in the least flattering. With a professional fringe and perhaps shoulder length hair and a just a hint of a smile and head titled back a little – very nice indeed.

    That will $200.00 thank you.

  17. briefly, poroti

    Frydenberg used the expression “Liberal family” a couple of times last night.

    I heard that too. The way he used “family” made me think it is where he goes to feel safe. His family exists to support him. He was afraid and needed to feel safe. There’s no nice way to say it. It shows him as a coward.

  18. p1

    You need some comprehension skills of your own. Nothing I posted disagreed with that. In fact if you had seen the link post I linked to for Zoidlord you would have seen that I was just pointing out that renewables are being invested in. That means its inevitable coal will decrease as power becomes less coal based. I did not say China was not investing in coal today.

  19. I hope that Senator Peter Whish-Wilson, newly appointed Treasury Spokesperson for the federal parliamentary Greens, will persuade his party to argue that the federal government should spend within the productive limits of the economy instead of targeting arbitrary and irrelevant deficit to GDP and public debt to GDP ratios.

    I’d like to share these articles by Michael Janda and Patrick Wood, who are writers for the ABC website. 

    These articles make valuable contributions to the discussion about how to eradicate involuntary unemployment and poverty in Australia. 

    Patrick and Michael both got one point wrong.  

    When they write, “Simply start the printing presses”, they are using an inapt metaphor that reinforces a common misconception about how currency-issuers spend. 

    The “crank up the printing press” metaphor implies that there is a proper, legitimate way for the government to spend (gather dollars from households and firms and spend those dollars on the government’s programs) versus a sneaky, illegitimate way for the government to spend (“start up the printing presses”). 

    The reality is that the federal government ALWAYS spends its currency in precisely one way thousands of times every day: it writes up numbers in the retail banks’ reserve accounts at the Reserve Bank of Australia (which is the federal government’s bank). The official name for reserve accounts is Exchange Settlement Accounts. These accounts are used to settle transactions between retail banks and between the central bank and the retail banks. The accounts hold a form of High Powered Money (issued directly by the central bank) called reserves. 

    That’s it. It’s pretty simple. 

    The Australian Government spends by writing up numbers in reserve accounts. 

    The Australian government taxes by writing down numbers in reserve accounts. 

    The constraint on the federal government’s spending is not financial. It cannot run out of keystrokes on computers at the central bank to write up numbers in reserve accounts. 

    The retail banks use some of their reserves to purchase physical currency (banknotes and coins) from the central bank based on demand from their customers. 

    The government does not spend by printing money. It spends by using keystrokes on computers at the central bank to write up numbers in retail banks’ reserve accounts. 

    High Powered Money (the monetary instruments issued directly by the government and the only instruments that the government will accept in payment of tax obligations) comprise reserves and physical currency. 

    The constraint on the federal government’s spending is the availability of real resources, goods, and services that are for sale in Australian dollars. 

    Our society can run out of real resources. We can run up against the limits of our technology and knowledge; we can exhaust our supplies of labour, people with particular skills, physical materials, and energy. 

    The Australian Government cannot run out of Australian dollars. 

    Taxation is extremely important because it drives demand for the government’s currency. Millions of people need to get their hands on Australian dollars so that they can extinguish their tax obligations to the Australian Government. The currency is valuable because millions of households and firms need it to pay taxes and avoid the penalties for non-compliance. 

    The fact that so many people are looking to sell goods, services, and labour power in exchange for the government’s currency ensures that the government can buy the real resources it needs to provision itself and fulfill the functions of a government. 

    The private sector provides the government with real goods and services. 

    The government provides the private sector with money. 

    That is the exchange that takes place between the government and the non-government sector. 

    The Australian dollar is effectively the Australian Government’s tax credit. It is a kind of token or voucher that the government issues into existence and then redeems when you present it to the government as fulfilment of your tax obligations. When the government spends its currency into the non-government sector, it is saying to the non- government sector:

    “I owe you this amount of tax liability extinguishment if you present this currency back to me in payment of the tax obligations that I have imposed on you.”

    This why the currency is the government’s IOU. The government owes us extinguishment of tax liabilities if we present the currency back to the government. That is the promise that the government makes to us. 

    Tax receipts are just a record that households and firms have met their tax obligations. Tax receipts do not finance the government. The government finances itself by writing up numbers in reserve accounts at the RBA. 

    The Australian Government is the monopoly issuer of the Australian dollar. 

    A second weakness of Patrick Wood’s article is that he should not have quoted Richard Holden for criticism of Modern Monetary Theory. Richard Holden is not a macroeconomist. He has very little knowledge of the large and rigorous body of scholars work by modern monetary theorists. He was a poor choice for a quote. Patrick should have found a mainstream New Classical macroeconomist who has actually read all of the core academic literature by William Mitchell, Stephanie Kelton, Warren Mosler, Randall Wray, and Pavlina Tcherneva. 

    https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-21/stephanie-kelton-on-modern-monetary-theory-and-a-job-guarantee/10510758?pfmredir=sm

    https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-23/trump-and-sanders-agree-on-one-key-aspect-of-economic-policy/10519388?pfmredir=sm

  20. EU leaders have formally approved the Draft Brexit Deal.
    The EU leaders have studiously avoided any public chat that might compromise a UK outcome.
    Next step is for the UK Parliament to approve it.
    It is difficult to work out the numbers.
    The DUP have declared they will vote against: 10.
    Corbyn has declared that Labor will vote against the Deal. But how many Labor MPs will break ranks?
    Around about 30-40 Tory arch Brexiteers will vote against.
    Scottish Tories are livid with the fisheries deal and may break ranks on that issue alone.
    Labor grassroots are revolting against Corbyn, and are seeking to call an emergency national conference with one item on the agenda: a second referendum.
    Extraordinarily, hard Brexit, a second referendum, and the May Deal are all still on the table.

  21. The Liberals saying they need to reconnect with their base are absolutely right, except they seem to thing it is their membership base when it is really their electoral base they need to reconnect to. When people in seats like Brighton and Hawthorn having people who have probably never voted Labor in their lives are voting for The ALP you know you have lost touch with your real base. These people are economically conservative but they are not climate denying and lets’s protect religious freedom as a push back against the SSM plebiscite conservatives.

    The big threat to the Libs is not One Nation and their right flank its to their left. It’s what I would call Liberal Independents such as Phelps in Wentworth who pose a threat in these electorates. They have seen it in the bush and it is now coming to metro Liberal electorates near you!

  22. N
    Ms Kenton had the decency to acknowledge that MMT was inflationary.
    But asserted this could be ‘managed.’
    She did not say how.
    So, inflation.
    So, anyone who has some money in the bank would be hit.

  23. guytaur

    I have done most of that fantastic southern walk in Sydney and when I was there earlier this year I heard about this project to extend it to the north.

    It will be massive for tourists, and free!

  24. A Pear
    says:
    Monday, November 26, 2018 at 11:02 am
    @ Rocket at https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/11/25/newspoll-55-45-labor-3/comment-page-5/#comment-3011765
    We should be so grateful that Hadley, Abbott and co are the “centre right” – imagine what the “right” or “far right” must be like!
    Without wanting to fall foul of Godwin’s Law, the “far right” will be actual fascists and nazis.

    Godwin’s law has been amended. The first person to evoke Godwin’s law (as a debating technique) is definitely a Nazi. 🙂

    Godwin’s Law only applies to hyperbole. He had no problem calling the Charlottesville Nazi’s “Nazi’s”. And while it might be disrespectful to use Nazi’s and the holocaust as flippant labels in debate, it is equally disrespectful to allow people with fascist tendencies to wash their hands of history.

  25. guytaur @ #287 Monday, November 26th, 2018 – 12:40 pm

    You need some comprehension skills of your own. Nothing I posted disagreed with that. In fact if you had seen the link post I linked to for Zoidlord you would have seen that I was just pointing out that renewables are being invested in. That means its inevitable coal will decrease as power becomes less coal based. I did not say China was not investing in coal today.

    Your comments make it plain that you still don’t get the point of the article.

    Since you can’t seem to understand the extracts I posted, and you clearly have no intention of reading the actual article and finding out for yourself, I guess I’ll just leave it there.

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