Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

After a Victorian election result decided entirely on state issues, a poll shows the Coalition doing every bit as badly at federal level.

A weekend to forget for the Coalition has been compounded by Newspoll’s finding that its federal operation is down yet another point, putting Labor’s lead at 55-45. Its primary vote is down a point to 34%, the equal lowest since the 2016 election, while Labor is steady on 40%, the Greens are unchanged on 9% and One Nation are up two to 6%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is down slightly, from 43-35 to 42-36. Nonetheless, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have improved since a fortnight ago, with approval up four to 43% and disapproval down five to 42%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 37% and steady on 50%. The poll will have been conducted Thursday to Sunday and the sample around 1700, although it’s not specified in the online report.

UPDATE: The sample size was 1717.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,597 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

  1. Imogen
    ‏ @twtrrr
    14h14 hours ago

    .@camerondickqld Hi, just witnessed a man in a wheelchair being denied a taxi home because the Mater public hospital had “run out of cab vouchers”. This is appalling. I am now giving him a lift myself. Not happy. #qldpol @qldhealthnews #auspol

  2. “The Potato in hospital, no sign of the PM, what happened over the weekend? ”

    May have involved edged weapons?? Liberal Party internal terrorism going on?? 🙂

  3. Barney in Go Dau says:
    Monday, November 26, 2018 at 9:51 am
    From Scott Ryan this morning.

    The idea that these seats, Goldstein, Higgins, Menzies and Kooyong, are potentially in play for Labor is astounding.

    But Frydenburg is saying that Victorian State elections was lost by Libs due to state issues. It has nothing to do with Federal Libs. It is like 2002 Bracks ALP win. So nothing to see here

  4. BK
    “At the royal commission NAB’s Andrew Thorburn is saying that in the light of the commission’s findings he is a born again banker.”

    I was hoping he might go for “born again law-abiding citizen”.

  5. sprocket_ @ #193 Monday, November 26th, 2018 – 10:33 am

    ScoFauxMo not commenting on the Victorian election is reminiscent of his predecessor.

    After the SuperSaturday wipeout, including the Longman humiliation, Turnbull was silent for 5 days – before emerging with the imprint of Dutton still evident on his backside.

    ScoMo, like his predecessor Turnbull, will be busy in supplication to his deity, while kneeled before a TV screening some Evangelist with appropriate ‘happy clapper’ music in the background. “Why? How could this happen after all that I have done for you?”

    In Turnbull’s case, the same supplication and questions except that he would have knelt before a mirror.

  6. William – just noticed first line of your headline – lol.


    We should be so grateful that Hadley, Abbott and co are the “centre right” – imagine what the “right” or “far right” must be like!

  7. As for Autocrat’s comment on running dead against Andrews in Menzies, please don’t! Any tactical advantage will be lost by the cynical look it would give to Labor.

    Right now Labor should be trying to underline the differences between itself and the LNP. Leaving far right bench warmers to enjoy the benefits of publicly funded sinecures does not do that. Besides, Labor might unearth a good parliamentary performer in as seat like that.

    Lastly, as a Labor supporter who has lived in Chris Pyne’s electorate for far too long, please remember that even in “safe” Liberal seats, there are often 30-35% of committed Labor supporters who would like at least a chance of having a local member they can like.

  8. BK

    Boom tish..

    Dutton being on medical leave this week does lessen the chance of another coup to boot Scotty – so the BootScooty may have to wait for next year.

  9. Given the juvenile response of the contributor “Nath” to me sharing my information on the state of polling in the Liberal Party strong hold seats to the East of Melbourne, what is his response to the Liberal Party parliamentarian, Ryan, repeating what my information is?

    The solution to the inept and uneducated contributions of this serial nut job is to ignore

  10. sprocket_ says:
    Monday, November 26, 2018 at 10:53 am
    Highlights of Ray Hadley and Tony Abbott on 2GB this morning…

    Abbott answers add fuel to fire. Abbott is bent on destroying Libs if it is not in his image

  11. Watching Sky news coverage of Vic. election yesterday there was a comment/observation made by several of their guests. Apparently we peasants “are no longer afraid of 50% renewable energy targets”. Shame on us for no longer being afraid of one of their scare campaigns. 🙂

  12. Crikey, BK was not joking. Could our resident medicos give us an idea of what Dutton must have been up to to g?et such an injury

    – Peter Dutton tried to mend a fence on Friday – literally – and hurt his arm & is off work
    – He’s ripped his bicep off bone (ouch)
    – His leave complicates Labor’s hopes of securing an absolute majority – 76 votes – for corruption watchdog

  13. poroti

    Given that new wind/solar and battery power is now actually cheaper than new coal power, the only people who are rationally afraid of a 100% renewables target are the owners of coal mines, and perhaps union delegates from unions for coal miners. I am happy to compensate the latter, but not the former.

  14. Observer
    Re: Ignoring a serial nutjob.

    I wholeheartedly agree with you, and urged this solution several days ago.
    It will in time solve the problem.

  15. Sunrise
    ‏Verified account @sunriseon7

    #BREAKING: A legal action against Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton has put a serious cloud over 1,600 visa cancellations and deportations he has ordered since 2016. @Riley7News

  16. We should go easy on nath. Job opportunities for young Liberal apparatchiks will soon be thin on the ground. After the staff positions are gone he has only his wits and charm to rely on. Yech! He is probably looking through right now.

    That gives me great comfort, so I will bid you adieu for today.

    I see the ICAC bill is being introduced into parliament today. Unless Labor has an absolutely clear cut and easily explainable objection to its form I really hope they support it. Worst case seek amendment. But do not oppose it in the current climate.

  17. Socrates

    The private members bill could be blocked by the government. However this afternoon they may be forced to vote on the one that has already passed the Senate.

  18. I have to laugh.

    Dutton’s injury complicates Labor’s push for an Federal Integrity Commission. 🙂

    Whose paying these journos for Labor its to au pair or not to au pair.

  19. “The Liberal Party is out of touch with the Liberal Party. ”

    The Omnishambolic Clusterfwa@k that is the Liberal Party couldn’t find the bits of itself it might want to touch with a map and serious professional assistance.

  20. The most probable federal election result as I see is, that in electorates in North and Central Queensland, possibly Northern Tasmania and South-East Queensland to an lesser extent, the Liberals and Liberal National Party should hold the line.

    However in the the particularly middle class metropolitan seats in Melbourne and Sydney the Liberals could face some possibly huge swings against them. Overall Labor will win win, however the win will be on a 2007 rather than 1983 scale at best. The big if for me is how effective is the negative gearing scare campaign will be in preventing too many of these seats falling to Labor.

  21. However Central and North Queensland, along with Northern Tasmania are not as Conservative as many people believe they are. Indeed during the same sex marriage referendum electorates in North and Central Queensland recorded Narrow Yes or No results.

    In Northern Tasmania Braddon recorded a 54% Yes result, Bass 65% Yes and 59% Yes in Lyons.

  22. Wasn’t it Malcolm Fraser who said the Liberal Party was no longer the Liberal Party?

    How many years ago was that?

    Some are very slow learners

  23. Tristo

    Overall Labor will win win, however the win will be on a 2007 rather than 1983 scale at best.

    I’m confident Scotty has the talents to turn an 07 into an 83

  24. Socrates @ #227 Monday, November 26th, 2018 – 11:10 am

    Given that new wind/solar and battery power is now actually cheaper than new coal power, the only people who are rationally afraid of a 100% renewables target are the owners of coal mines, and perhaps union delegates from unions for coal miners. I am happy to compensate the latter, but not the former.

    It’s not so easy as just setting a target, or hoping cost reductions are going to come to the rescue.

    Someone (lizzie?) posted this article yesterday …

    So, why is coal so hard to quit?

    Because coal is a powerful incumbent. It’s there by the millions of tons under the ground. Powerful companies, backed by powerful governments, often in the form of subsidies, are in a rush to grow their markets before it is too late. Banks still profit from it. Big national electricity grids were designed for it. Coal plants can be a surefire way for politicians to deliver cheap electricity — and retain their own power. In some countries, it has been a glistening source of graft.

    And even while renewables are spreading fast, they still have limits: Wind and solar power flow when the breeze blows and the sun shines, and that requires traditional electricity grids to be retooled.

    “The main reason why coal sticks around is, we built it already,” said Rohit Chandra, who earned a doctoral degree in energy policy at Harvard, specializing in coal in India.

    Coal is not going to just “go away” of its own accord. On the contrary, coal is fighting back

    Home to half the world’s population, Asia accounts for three-fourths of global coal consumption today. More important, it accounts for more than three-fourths of coal plants that are either under construction or in the planning stages — a whopping 1,200 of them, according to Urgewald, a German advocacy group that tracks coal development. Heffa Schücking, who heads Urgewald, called those plants “an assault on the Paris goals.”

    Indonesia is digging more coal. Vietnam is clearing ground for new coal-fired power plants. Japan, reeling from 2011 nuclear plant disaster, has resurrected coal.

    The world’s juggernaut, though, is China. The country consumes half the world’s coal. More than 4.3 million Chinese are employed in the country’s coal mines. China has added 40 percent of the world’s coal capacity since 2002, a huge increase for just 16 years. “I had to do the calculation three times,” said Carlos Fernández Alvarez, a senior energy analyst at the International Energy Agency. “I thought it was wrong. It’s crazy.”

    Spurred by public outcry over air pollution, China is now also the world leader in solar and wind power installation, and its central government has tried to slow down coal plant construction. But an analysis by Coal Swarm, a U.S.-based team of researchers that advocates for coal alternatives, concluded that new plants continue to be built, and other proposed projects have simply been delayed rather than stopped. Chinese coal consumption grew in 2017, though at a far slower pace than before, and is on track to grow again in 2018, after declining in previous years.

    China’s coal industry is now scrambling to find new markets, from Kenya to Pakistan. Chinese companies are building coal plants in 17 countries, according to Urgewald. Its regional rival, Japan, is in the game too: nearly 60 percent of planned coal projects developed by Japanese companies are outside the country, mostly financed by Japanese banks.

    That contest is particularly stark in Southeast Asia, one of the world’s last frontiers of coal expansion.

    The rest of the article is worth reading as well.

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