A weekend to forget for the Coalition has been compounded by Newspoll’s finding that its federal operation is down yet another point, putting Labor’s lead at 55-45. Its primary vote is down a point to 34%, the equal lowest since the 2016 election, while Labor is steady on 40%, the Greens are unchanged on 9% and One Nation are up two to 6%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is down slightly, from 43-35 to 42-36. Nonetheless, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have improved since a fortnight ago, with approval up four to 43% and disapproval down five to 42%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 37% and steady on 50%. The poll will have been conducted Thursday to Sunday and the sample around 1700, although it’s not specified in the online report.
UPDATE: The sample size was 1717.
Barney in Go Dau @ #2399 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 7:32 pm
https://justinekeaylabor.com.au/news/media-releases/transcript-bill-shorten-justine-keay-4-july-2018/
P1,
We have a the best wind and the best solar resources in the world. So midpoint costs are not relevant.
mikehilliard @ #2400 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 7:32 pm
Yes, I thought so too at first. Bad policy but good politics.
Now, I’m not so sure. I no longer assume Labor are “white nights” on this issue – indirectly (e.g. through various union affiliations) they too have a vested interest in perpetuating coal.
Shorten will go along with whatever the BCA want. So, no ETS, or perhaps, a very shitty diluted ETS. Once Shorten is PM there is little political advantage in driving an effective ETS. So, more DIRECT ACTION! Like the subsidised batteries.
Libertarian Unionist @ #2402 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 7:34 pm
And judging by how much we export to countries who have massive coal resources of their own, we must also have some of the cheapest coal in the world. Which means the coal midpoint price may also not be relevant.
I wonder what the low end of the coal price is?
When did Ken Henry become such an enormous arsehole? I can’t remember him being such a tool when he was head of Treasury.
Cormann doing his best of 7.30 but polishing the proverbial while simultaneously pushing the same proverbial uphill comes to mind.
Best wishes for any bludgers caught up in the Queensland fires.
The QLD fires are freakish.
Player One @ #2399 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 3:33 pm
So, one line in a by-election press conference where he was highlighting disunity within the Government and their inability to agree on a policy.
No where does he say that Labor were not willing to work with the Government.
I am not sure it works for the Liberals having Cormann on 7.30 doing robotic metronomic responses that don’t remotely reflect the questions.
mikehilliard says:
Wednesday, November 28, 2018 at 7:31 pm
It seems a myth is being woven that Turnbull’s government was centrist.
left, right and centre as political terms are very subjective and of limited use. As a way of comparing two differing positions (as in A is to the left of B) they work reasonable well. When used to describe one group or idea they are influenced by the ideological of the person doing the describing. Turnbull claimed to be centrist and compared with Abbott and Dutton he was but compared with many others he was quite right wing. From my personnel perspective all the parties currently represented in the federal parliament are right wing.
The Government Gazette might have to rename themselves the Minority Report.
Boom tish – thanks for coming, I’m here all week! Try the veal.
The Coalition have doubled net dept since 2013, their surplus prediction for a single financial year seems preposterous in comparison.
Barney in Go Dau @ #2410 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 7:49 pm
I suppose you could spin statements like this that way …
Labor will certainly be hoping the punters will believe that 🙁
Can anyone tell me please what the 2pp was during the period when Turnbull first took over as PM and had sky high approval ratings for a few months before it all turned to crap? I have always thought that he made a massive blunder in not calling a snap election at that time. Thank goodness he didn’t.
Player One @ #2413 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 4:02 pm
And where does it say that Labor were not willing to work with the Government.
Darn @ #2416 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 8:04 pm
If there was a politically smart choice on offer, with a politically stupid alternative … guess which one Mal would choose – 100% of the time!
P1
So true. He had no political nous whatsoever.
Player One
Not only call a snap election but promise the sort of things the RWNJs opposed. Truffles’ public popularity was such that they would have to shut up and take it as the popularity promised government and a likely multi term majority..
This is not an apples to apples comparison because 62 percent of Australia’s 1.7 percent population increase last year consisted of people who moved here from other parts of the world.
Australia’s natural population increase was 0.65 percent.
Barney in Go Dau @ #2417 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 8:05 pm
Wow! You can spin almost as well as Mark Butler can …
This is fun!
Anybody got a subscription to the HeraldScum?
Liberals face losing Kelly O’Dwyer’s blue-riband Melbourne seat of Higgins at the next federal election, under new polling obtained by the Herald Sun: trib.al/6z66OAW #exclusive #auspol #springst
The cross benchers are having their Xmas party tonight..
The gormless Craig Kelly may desert the sinking ship:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/craig-kelly-planning-to-quit-the-liberal-party-as-government-braces-for-more-defections-20181128-p50iyk.html
Gawd – I leave the country and five minutes later the liberal party straits imploding! Shoulda left earlier I guess
Greetings from a damp UK!
Sprocket
After O’Dwyer’s performance today when she declared the Liberals the natural party for women I suspect she might be in even more trouble electorally.
Senate change rules to rein in poor behaviour:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/rapidly-cascading-into-farce-senate-changes-its-rules-after-horror-day-of-bad-behaviour-20181128-p50izo.html
@ lizzie 5:01pm
1. For a “backbone” payment, Newstart sure isn’t much “bone” – out of the DSP, Age Pension, FTB A/B, it’s smaller than all of them, in both per-capita benefit and total spend!
2. So, the initial media reportage was incomplete, and the (smelly) Greens jumped all over it to slobber and slime Labor as “just the same” as the Libs. Must be a day ending in “y”.
sprocket_ @ #2423 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 5:22 pm
Not going to paste the whole article as per Mr Bowe’s guidelines, however the most relevant parts of it are:
@Sprocket: Surely not! Higgins is sitting on a 10.7% margin against Labor, slightly less (8%) against the fragrant Greens – surely the backlash isn’t going to be that seismic?
Oh, and I don’t have a sub to the Herald Sun or any other Newscorp outlet. I just use a bit of a jiggery pokery plugin to bypass the paywall.
Speaking of coal and nuclear………….
France to close 14 nuclear reactors by 2035 an all coal-fired power plants by 2022
https://www.thelocal.fr/20181127/france-to-close-14-nuclear-reactors-by-2035
Matt @ #2431 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 5:40 pm
Yes, Higgins. According to the poll mentioned above, she would lose the seat on a 2pp vote of ALP 53, Scum 47.
Who would’ve ever thought that Higgins maybe won by Labor? Then again, who would’ve thought that Wentworth would be lost. It goes to show that any Tory seat (including Abbott’s) is at risk.
Given the Greens’ vote is 18.8 percent, there must be a lot of doctors’ wives in Toorak, Malvern, South Yarra.
And with such a margin (with the usual disclaimers about seat polls and uniform swings) Wannon, Goldstein & Kooyong might be close too.
Obama laying the boots into Trump:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/nov/28/barack-obama-lambasts-trump-over-legal-troubles
To bring the minimum wage in line with labour productivity growth since 1970 we should lift the minimum wage from $18.90 an hour to $24 an hour. This would make the annual full-time minimum wage $47,500.
We should fix the age pension, the disability support pension, and the sickness benefit at 75 percent of the full time minimum wage ($35,600 annually).
Legislate that the minimum wage adjusts automatically in line with labour productivity growth. The age pension etc should therefore be adjusted automatically as well to keep it at 75 percent of the full-time minimum wage.
We should abolish all wealth and income tests for the age pension. It should be seen as a universal entitlement for older people.
We should scrap all tax deductions for superannuation and make superannuation voluntary (there are other ways that people can top up their retirement income besides this one product called superannuation).
Leaving people’s retirement income to the vagaries of the sharemarket is a stupid idea. The federal government can guarantee a decent retirement income for all.
nath says:
…
Maybe. Or perhaps Shorten is more cunning than you credit him for. I’d be willing to bet that an ETS never eventuates.
How much and how do we arrange things so I can be sure you pay up.
Mavis Smith @ #2435 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 8:46 pm
You know what the hilarious thing is? We have a Doctor’s wife running for Labor in Robertson. 😀
We actually had a talk about the fact that Labor has now moved closer to the aspirations of the people who are socially progressive and economically responsible, with an emphasis on providing Public Goods from the taxpayers’ purse.
Dan Gulberry @ #2435 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 5:50 pm
Gawd I miss him.
Peter Stanton @ #2412 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 6:53 pm
I agree. The 2×2 matix used by the vote compass helps a bit but it seems to be that that can sort of measure economic left/right things and also a lot of progressive especially sex related issues but it falls over on a lot of other issues, especially environmental issues, most international issues and most free speech/civil liberties issues. I favour using a cubic matrix which has three axes.
@Darn
Coalition leading ALP 52-48 in November 2015 just after Turnbull became PM.
After slipping slightly in the 8-11 October poll (the second Newspoll after the Liberal leadership change), the Coalition’s two-party preferred vote improved 2 points to 52 per cent and Labor’s vote fell 2 points to 48 per cent.
Support for Mr Turnbull as preferred prime minister soared to 63 per cent (previously 57 per cent) and Labor leader Bill Shorten fell to 17 per cent (previously 19 per cent). In the last Newspoll before the Liberal’s leadership change (3-6 September) Mr Shorten led Tony Abbott 41 to 37 per cent as preferred prime minister. The latest poll was Mr Shorten’s worst ever result. It is the lowest posted by an Opposition leader since Mr Turnbull scored 14 per cent in November 2009, shortly before he was replaced as Opposition Leader by Mr Abbott.
https://insidepublishers.com.au/politics-and-government-policy/article/newspoll-november-2015
Re Higgins
I think many Lib City seats not normally at risk may come close. Eg a Ryan in Brisbane. The heart and soul of the Liberal Party (what little there was) is daily being eaten away from a mob who’s sole purpose in life is to keep Labor from Governing.
Confessions @ #2441 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 6:01 pm
The whole world misses him Fess.
Nicholas @ #2438 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 8:56 pm
I think we should institute a USG for older people – Universal Soylent Green. That way, the problem takes care of itself!
Jack the Insider tells why he is a fan of Andrews, the current “undisputed king of electoral politics in Australia”
.
https://outline.com/brpe3D
C@tmomma
[‘You know what the hilarious thing is? We have a Doctor’s wife running for Labor in Robertson. ‘]
Great, and I hopes she wins. The mind boggles that formerly very safe Tory seats are at risk in Victoria. In fact I’m beginning to think the election maybe won there. WA, Queensland, NSW will be the icing on the cake.
Hi Jen
Not much to choose between where May is and where Morrison is, I suppose?
Dan G:
Yes that is true.