Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

After a Victorian election result decided entirely on state issues, a poll shows the Coalition doing every bit as badly at federal level.

A weekend to forget for the Coalition has been compounded by Newspoll’s finding that its federal operation is down yet another point, putting Labor’s lead at 55-45. Its primary vote is down a point to 34%, the equal lowest since the 2016 election, while Labor is steady on 40%, the Greens are unchanged on 9% and One Nation are up two to 6%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is down slightly, from 43-35 to 42-36. Nonetheless, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have improved since a fortnight ago, with approval up four to 43% and disapproval down five to 42%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 37% and steady on 50%. The poll will have been conducted Thursday to Sunday and the sample around 1700, although it’s not specified in the online report.

UPDATE: The sample size was 1717.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,597 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

  1. mikehilliard @ #2400 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 7:32 pm

    P1

    I was thinking Labor were just playing wedge politics with the NEG.

    Yes, I thought so too at first. Bad policy but good politics.

    Now, I’m not so sure. I no longer assume Labor are “white nights” on this issue – indirectly (e.g. through various union affiliations) they too have a vested interest in perpetuating coal.

  2. Shorten will go along with whatever the BCA want. So, no ETS, or perhaps, a very shitty diluted ETS. Once Shorten is PM there is little political advantage in driving an effective ETS. So, more DIRECT ACTION! Like the subsidised batteries.

  3. Libertarian Unionist @ #2402 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 7:34 pm

    P1,

    We have a the best wind and the best solar resources in the world. So midpoint costs are not relevant.

    And judging by how much we export to countries who have massive coal resources of their own, we must also have some of the cheapest coal in the world. Which means the coal midpoint price may also not be relevant.

    I wonder what the low end of the coal price is?

  4. Player One @ #2399 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 3:33 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #2399 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 7:32 pm

    And where is the rest of what he said?

    https://justinekeaylabor.com.au/news/media-releases/transcript-bill-shorten-justine-keay-4-july-2018/

    So, one line in a by-election press conference where he was highlighting disunity within the Government and their inability to agree on a policy.

    No where does he say that Labor were not willing to work with the Government.

  5. mikehilliard says:
    Wednesday, November 28, 2018 at 7:31 pm
    It seems a myth is being woven that Turnbull’s government was centrist.

    left, right and centre as political terms are very subjective and of limited use. As a way of comparing two differing positions (as in A is to the left of B) they work reasonable well. When used to describe one group or idea they are influenced by the ideological of the person doing the describing. Turnbull claimed to be centrist and compared with Abbott and Dutton he was but compared with many others he was quite right wing. From my personnel perspective all the parties currently represented in the federal parliament are right wing.

  6. The Government Gazette might have to rename themselves the Minority Report.

    Boom tish – thanks for coming, I’m here all week! Try the veal.

  7. Barney in Go Dau @ #2410 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 7:49 pm

    No where does he say that Labor were not willing to work with the Government.

    I suppose you could spin statements like this that way …

    Labor has endorsed the union movement’s decision to oppose Malcolm Turnbull’s signature ­energy policy and is leaving the door open to rejecting the plan for not driving greater levels of investment into renewables.

    Opposition energy spokesman Mark Butler yesterday upheld the ACTU’s key criticisms of the ­National Energy Guarantee and joined with the union movement in accusing the government of failing to assist adversely affected power generation workers into new jobs.

    Mr Butler said the ACTU had “raised several valid concerns” in its submission to the Energy Security Board, in which it said it could not support the NEG.

    “Numerous stakeholders, including the ACTU, have raised ­serious concerns that the very low ambition of the NEG will not support a single large-scale renewable energy project over the entire decade of the 2020s,” Mr Butler told The Australian.

    “This low ambition will have ­serious jobs, electricity price and reliability as well as climate impacts, and Labor shares these concerns.

    “In addition, the Turnbull government’s refusal to develop policies to deliver a just transition for coal sector and other workers is gross negligence of their responsibilities and their obligations under the Paris accords.”

    Labor will certainly be hoping the punters will believe that 🙁

  8. Can anyone tell me please what the 2pp was during the period when Turnbull first took over as PM and had sky high approval ratings for a few months before it all turned to crap? I have always thought that he made a massive blunder in not calling a snap election at that time. Thank goodness he didn’t.

  9. Player One @ #2413 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 4:02 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #2410 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 7:49 pm

    No where does he say that Labor were not willing to work with the Government.

    I suppose you could spin statements like this that way …

    Labor has endorsed the union movement’s decision to oppose Malcolm Turnbull’s signature ­energy policy and is leaving the door open to rejecting the plan for not driving greater levels of investment into renewables.

    Opposition energy spokesman Mark Butler yesterday upheld the ACTU’s key criticisms of the ­National Energy Guarantee and joined with the union movement in accusing the government of failing to assist adversely affected power generation workers into new jobs.

    Mr Butler said the ACTU had “raised several valid concerns” in its submission to the Energy Security Board, in which it said it could not support the NEG.

    “Numerous stakeholders, including the ACTU, have raised ­serious concerns that the very low ambition of the NEG will not support a single large-scale renewable energy project over the entire decade of the 2020s,” Mr Butler told The Australian.

    “This low ambition will have ­serious jobs, electricity price and reliability as well as climate impacts, and Labor shares these concerns.

    “In addition, the Turnbull government’s refusal to develop policies to deliver a just transition for coal sector and other workers is gross negligence of their responsibilities and their obligations under the Paris accords.”

    Labor will certainly be hoping the punters will believe that 🙁

    And where does it say that Labor were not willing to work with the Government.

  10. Player One says:
    Wednesday, November 28, 2018 at 8:07 pm
    Darn @ #2416 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 8:04 pm

    I have always thought that he made a massive blunder in not calling a snap election at that time.

    If there was a politically smart choice on offer, with a politically stupid alternative … guess which one Mal would choose – 100% of the time!

    P1

    So true. He had no political nous whatsoever.

  11. Player One

    Not only call a snap election but promise the sort of things the RWNJs opposed. Truffles’ public popularity was such that they would have to shut up and take it as the popularity promised government and a likely multi term majority..

  12. World population growth is 1.09% and declining.

    Australia’s population growth is 1.6% and not declining.

    Spot the odd one out.

    This is not an apples to apples comparison because 62 percent of Australia’s 1.7 percent population increase last year consisted of people who moved here from other parts of the world.

    Australia’s natural population increase was 0.65 percent.

  13. Barney in Go Dau @ #2417 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 8:05 pm

    And where does it say that Labor were not willing to work with the Government.

    Wow! You can spin almost as well as Mark Butler can …

    Shadow energy spokesman Mark Butler has declared there is “nothing to accept” in the Turnbull government’s new energy policy as its chief salesman Josh Frydenberg implored the opposition to “come on board”.

    In a sign Labor may be hardening its opposition to the National Energy Guarantee, Mr Butler suggested he could not accept the policy even after seeing more detailed modelling, describing it as a “national energy gimmick” and an “all-out assault” on renewables.

    When the government announced the new policy last week, ditching the Clean Energy Target and described the NEG as a “game-changer”, Labor combined its criticisms with a pointed refusal to rule out supporting it, saying it wanted to see more detail on the policy.

    This is fun!

  14. Anybody got a subscription to the HeraldScum?

    Liberals face losing Kelly O’Dwyer’s blue-riband Melbourne seat of Higgins at the next federal election, under new polling obtained by the Herald Sun: trib.al/6z66OAW #exclusive #auspol #springst

  15. Gawd – I leave the country and five minutes later the liberal party straits imploding! Shoulda left earlier I guess

    Greetings from a damp UK!

  16. Sprocket

    After O’Dwyer’s performance today when she declared the Liberals the natural party for women I suspect she might be in even more trouble electorally.

  17. @ lizzie 5:01pm

    Under the deal with Labor, the waiting time will be cut down to just one or two years for carers’ payments, parental leave pay and the Family Tax Benefit A, but will remain at four years for Newstart, the backbone unemployment payment commonly known as the dole.

    1. For a “backbone” payment, Newstart sure isn’t much “bone” – out of the DSP, Age Pension, FTB A/B, it’s smaller than all of them, in both per-capita benefit and total spend!

    2. So, the initial media reportage was incomplete, and the (smelly) Greens jumped all over it to slobber and slime Labor as “just the same” as the Libs. Must be a day ending in “y”.

  18. sprocket_ @ #2423 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 5:22 pm

    Anybody got a subscription to the HeraldScum?

    Liberals face losing Kelly O’Dwyer’s blue-riband Melbourne seat of Higgins at the next federal election, under new polling obtained by the Herald Sun: trib.al/6z66OAW #exclusive #auspol #springst

    Not going to paste the whole article as per Mr Bowe’s guidelines, however the most relevant parts of it are:

    Kelly O’Dwyer, one of the most senior women in the Morrison Government, would lose her seat to Labor on a two-party vote of 53-47 — reflecting the collapse of the Coalition’s vote at the Victorian state election.

    The ReachTEL poll of about 1000 voters in suburbs including Toorak, Armadale and Malvern and trendy South Yarra and Prahran on Tuesday night, showed a 14-point drop in the Liberals’ primary vote since the 2016 election.

    The poll, commissioned by the Construction, Forestry, Maritime, Mining and Energy Union, shows fewer than 35 per cent of voters under the age of 50 were prepared to vote for the Liberals, with the Greens also losing voters to Labor on the 2016 result.

    It used only party names and not those of the candidates, but showed the Liberal primary vote was just 38.6 per cent, ahead of Labor (32.5 per cent) and the Greens (18.8 per cent).

  19. @Sprocket: Surely not! Higgins is sitting on a 10.7% margin against Labor, slightly less (8%) against the fragrant Greens – surely the backlash isn’t going to be that seismic?

  20. Who would’ve ever thought that Higgins maybe won by Labor? Then again, who would’ve thought that Wentworth would be lost. It goes to show that any Tory seat (including Abbott’s) is at risk.
    Given the Greens’ vote is 18.8 percent, there must be a lot of doctors’ wives in Toorak, Malvern, South Yarra.

  21. Obama laying the boots into Trump:

    “Not only did I not get indicted, nobody in my administration got indicted,” the former president said at an event in Houston on Tuesday, “which by the way was the only administration in modern history that that can be said about. In fact, nobody came close to being indicted, partly because the people who joined us were there for the right reasons. We were there to serve.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/nov/28/barack-obama-lambasts-trump-over-legal-troubles

  22. To bring the minimum wage in line with labour productivity growth since 1970 we should lift the minimum wage from $18.90 an hour to $24 an hour. This would make the annual full-time minimum wage $47,500.

    We should fix the age pension, the disability support pension, and the sickness benefit at 75 percent of the full time minimum wage ($35,600 annually).

    Legislate that the minimum wage adjusts automatically in line with labour productivity growth. The age pension etc should therefore be adjusted automatically as well to keep it at 75 percent of the full-time minimum wage.

    We should abolish all wealth and income tests for the age pension. It should be seen as a universal entitlement for older people.

    We should scrap all tax deductions for superannuation and make superannuation voluntary (there are other ways that people can top up their retirement income besides this one product called superannuation).

    Leaving people’s retirement income to the vagaries of the sharemarket is a stupid idea. The federal government can guarantee a decent retirement income for all.


  23. nath says:

    Maybe. Or perhaps Shorten is more cunning than you credit him for. I’d be willing to bet that an ETS never eventuates.

    How much and how do we arrange things so I can be sure you pay up.

  24. Mavis Smith @ #2435 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 8:46 pm

    Who would’ve ever thought that Higgins maybe won by Labor? Then again, who would’ve thought that Wentworth would be lost. It goes to show that any Tory seat (including Abbott’s) is at risk.
    Given the Greens’ vote is 18.8 percent, there must be a lot of doctors’ wives in Toorak, Malvern, South Yarra.

    You know what the hilarious thing is? We have a Doctor’s wife running for Labor in Robertson. 😀

    We actually had a talk about the fact that Labor has now moved closer to the aspirations of the people who are socially progressive and economically responsible, with an emphasis on providing Public Goods from the taxpayers’ purse.

  25. Dan Gulberry @ #2435 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 5:50 pm

    Obama laying the boots into Trump:

    “Not only did I not get indicted, nobody in my administration got indicted,” the former president said at an event in Houston on Tuesday, “which by the way was the only administration in modern history that that can be said about. In fact, nobody came close to being indicted, partly because the people who joined us were there for the right reasons. We were there to serve.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/nov/28/barack-obama-lambasts-trump-over-legal-troubles

    Gawd I miss him.

  26. Peter Stanton @ #2412 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 6:53 pm

    mikehilliard says:
    Wednesday, November 28, 2018 at 7:31 pm
    It seems a myth is being woven that Turnbull’s government was centrist.

    left, right and centre as political terms are very subjective and of limited use. As a way of comparing two differing positions (as in A is to the left of B) they work reasonable well. When used to describe one group or idea they are influenced by the ideological of the person doing the describing. Turnbull claimed to be centrist and compared with Abbott and Dutton he was but compared with many others he was quite right wing. From my personnel perspective all the parties currently represented in the federal parliament are right wing.

    I agree. The 2×2 matix used by the vote compass helps a bit but it seems to be that that can sort of measure economic left/right things and also a lot of progressive especially sex related issues but it falls over on a lot of other issues, especially environmental issues, most international issues and most free speech/civil liberties issues. I favour using a cubic matrix which has three axes.

  27. @Darn

    Coalition leading ALP 52-48 in November 2015 just after Turnbull became PM.

    After slipping slightly in the 8-11 October poll (the second Newspoll after the Liberal leadership change), the Coalition’s two-party preferred vote improved 2 points to 52 per cent and Labor’s vote fell 2 points to 48 per cent.

    Support for Mr Turnbull as preferred prime minister soared to 63 per cent (previously 57 per cent) and Labor leader Bill Shorten fell to 17 per cent (previously 19 per cent). In the last Newspoll before the Liberal’s leadership change (3-6 September) Mr Shorten led Tony Abbott 41 to 37 per cent as preferred prime minister. The latest poll was Mr Shorten’s worst ever result. It is the lowest posted by an Opposition leader since Mr Turnbull scored 14 per cent in November 2009, shortly before he was replaced as Opposition Leader by Mr Abbott.

    https://insidepublishers.com.au/politics-and-government-policy/article/newspoll-november-2015

  28. Re Higgins

    I think many Lib City seats not normally at risk may come close. Eg a Ryan in Brisbane. The heart and soul of the Liberal Party (what little there was) is daily being eaten away from a mob who’s sole purpose in life is to keep Labor from Governing.

  29. Jack the Insider tells why he is a fan of Andrews, the current “undisputed king of electoral politics in Australia”
    .

    But I want to tell a story that I thought was best left until after the Victorian election lest it be thought I was trying to sway voters. We are passed that now and the dust has settled.
    I’ve had dealings with the Andrews government, not as journalist but as an advocate on behalf of Denis Ryan. Many will know the story. Denis was a detective with Victoria Police based in Mildura who sought to prosecute an outrageously prolific paedophile priest only to find corrupt forces within VicPol turn against him. That was in 1972. He lost the job he loved and was left battered and bruised by the encounter.

    …………………………………….From someone who has been an observer of government for a long time, seen them come and go — some good, some less so — it was impressive.

    Some might say the Andrews government did what any government should do and they’d be right, but the fact remains there were eight state governments in Victoria from both sides of the divide that should have acted but did not.

    https://outline.com/brpe3D

  30. C@tmomma

    [‘You know what the hilarious thing is? We have a Doctor’s wife running for Labor in Robertson. ‘]

    Great, and I hopes she wins. The mind boggles that formerly very safe Tory seats are at risk in Victoria. In fact I’m beginning to think the election maybe won there. WA, Queensland, NSW will be the icing on the cake.

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