Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

After a Victorian election result decided entirely on state issues, a poll shows the Coalition doing every bit as badly at federal level.

A weekend to forget for the Coalition has been compounded by Newspoll’s finding that its federal operation is down yet another point, putting Labor’s lead at 55-45. Its primary vote is down a point to 34%, the equal lowest since the 2016 election, while Labor is steady on 40%, the Greens are unchanged on 9% and One Nation are up two to 6%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is down slightly, from 43-35 to 42-36. Nonetheless, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have improved since a fortnight ago, with approval up four to 43% and disapproval down five to 42%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 37% and steady on 50%. The poll will have been conducted Thursday to Sunday and the sample around 1700, although it’s not specified in the online report.

UPDATE: The sample size was 1717.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,597 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

  1. Question there is some room for improvement with lithium. Solid state lithium is in the works. It really boils down to economics though. Sodium is a lot cheaper and eventually they’ll get the bugs out of sodium – possibly in grid scale applications at first.

  2. I have often wondered why capacitor batteries cannot be developed to industrial scales.

    Any techies know anything about this?

    Is there some good reason, based on the physics of the situation, that they cannot be scaled up?

  3. don capacitors (even ultracapacitors) are limited in energy density (and energy per dollar) relative to chemical batteries. One stores the energy in an electric field, the other in chemical potential.

    There are some clever hybrids that are part capacitor, part battery, but this is because of power density requirements (regenerative braking).

  4. Cud Chewer @ #2345 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 6:44 pm

    Jimmy

    What really nailed P1’s coffin for me was its far-too-clever stance on boycotting the Marriage Equality vote when it turned out that P1 was against same sex marriage anyhow but was being dishonest in not revealing the fact at first.

    Is this really the best you can do? It’s not even true. I said from day one that I was personally inclined to oppose SSM, but would abide by the outcome of the plebiscite.

  5. https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/craig-kelly-planning-to-quit-the-liberal-party-as-government-braces-for-more-defections-20181128-p50iyk.html

    Craig Kelly planning to quit the Liberal Party as government braces for more defections
    By Michael Koziol
    28 November 2018 — 6:43pm

    Liberal MP Craig Kelly plans to run as an independent at the next election and is considering quitting the party immediately, in the latest blow to unity inside the Morrison government.

    The Coalition is braced for further defections following Julia Banks’ bombshell resignation on Tuesday and MPs are openly speculating about who could be next – with Mr Kelly top of the list.

    Deputy Liberal leader and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg – the most senior Victorian in the Coalition – cancelled his planned trip to the G20 economic forum in Argentina this weekend amid the fallout from the Liberals’ state election loss and Ms Banks’ defection.

    Some MPs fear there is “more to come”. Mr Kelly – a conservative MP from southern Sydney – has privately conceded he has no chance of retaining preselection in the face of a push by moderate Liberal members who have the numbers to remove him.

    Confidantes of Mr Kelly are urging him to quit the Liberal Party now to build momentum to run against Kent Johns – the presumptive Liberal candidate in Hughes – as an independent.

  6. Cud Chewer @ #2339 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 3:41 pm

    Question.. why not a simple tax?

    Exactly. Leaving it to the market will drive the costs of credits down to a point where they become utterly useless. The future of the planet is far too important to leave it in the hands of rent seekers, spivs and other self proclaimed masters of the universe trading derivatives that no-one understands.

    A simple tax – you pollute, you pay – is something everyone can easily grasp.

    We have already seen how disastrous the “idea of letting the market determine the outcomes” has been on healthcare and education, to name but two areas.

  7. don @ #2350 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 5:47 pm

    I have often wondered why capacitor batteries cannot be developed to industrial scales.

    Any techies know anything about this?

    Is there some good reason, based on the physics of the situation, that they cannot be scaled up?

    My only time with big capacitors I learned two things. They are (expletively) dangerous. And they leak. This was 40 years ago. Perhaps things have improved since then.

  8. JimmyD
    says:
    Wednesday, November 28, 2018 at 6:46 pm
    nath
    Yep. Everyone is for it except for Morrison and Shorten!
    If you don’t get that Labor’s intention is to convert the NEG into an ETS then you’re not nearly as bright as you fancy yourself to be.
    ________________________________
    Maybe. Or perhaps Shorten is more cunning than you credit him for. I’d be willing to bet that an ETS never eventuates.

  9. ‘Bevan Shields

    Verified account

    @BevanShields
    9m9 minutes ago
    More
    EXCLUSIVE: Liberal MP Craig Kelly plans to run as an independent at the next election and is considering quitting the party immediately ‘

    Another shock resignation! Somehow I don’t think people will be as fussed about Kelly joining the crossbench as they are about Banks.

  10. I said from day one that I was personally inclined to oppose SSM, but would abide by the outcome of the plebiscite.
    _______________________
    Well how generous of you. ALP right wing Catholic? Or just homophobic?

  11. Just to show how wrong P1 is, earlier this year, a Colorado utility received very low quotes for utility wind/solar plus battery, far cheaper than new coal, and cheaper than the state’s existing coal:

    The median bid for a wind project was $18.10/MWh; the median for wind+storage was $21, just three dollars higher. The median bid for a solar PV project was $29.50/MWh; the median bid for solar+storage was $36, just seven dollars higher. (Keep in mind what median means: Half the projects bid cheaper than this.)…

    According to Carbon Tracker, based on these bids, new wind+storage energy in Colorado is cheaper than energy from the state’s existing coal plants; solar+storage energy is cheaper than 75 percent of the state’s coal energy. This is worth repeating, because it’s a significant milestone: In Colorado, getting energy from new renewable energy projects with storage is cheaper than getting it from existing coal plants. Coal is dead.

    https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/1/16/16895594/colorado-renewable-energy-future

  12. JimmyD @ #2343 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 6:43 pm

    Definitely not true. Your own source quotes fully depreciated coal as costing around $36 (and this price also incorporates assumed returns from salvaging of materials during decommission). In the same table it quotes a price for wind of between $29 and $56. For utility solar, the price is between $36 and $46. Both of these are competitive price-wise with old coal.

    Do at least try and get your facts right.

    $36 is the midpoint for existing coal, including decommissioning costs.

    The midpoint for wind is $42.

    The midpoint for solar is $40 (thin film) or $43 (crystalline).

  13. I’ve previously worked with power electronics for mining machinery. Some serious power involved.
    My favourite project was a lithium battery based welding rig. Enough power to launch yourself into the next town.

  14. zoomster @ #2362 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 2:53 pm

    ‘Bevan Shields

    Verified account

    @BevanShields
    9m9 minutes ago
    More
    EXCLUSIVE: Liberal MP Craig Kelly plans to run as an independent at the next election and is considering quitting the party immediately ‘

    Another shock resignation! Somehow I don’t think people will be as fussed about Kelly joining the crossbench as they are about Banks.

    Banks’ decision seems to be based around principles whilst Kelly’s would seem to be just a dummy spit! 🙂

  15. don @ #2360 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 5:52 pm

    I found this URL on capacitor batteries:

    https://revolution-green.com/holy-grail-already-super-capacitor-battery/

    Seems great if it delivers as promised.

    Some quotes from the link.

    Waseem Ashraf Qureshi is the rising sun in the solar-powered tech domain. He has ideas that are unique, interpretative and competitive when put to test.

    With research laboratories in Dubai, Amber and Waseem General Trading designs and develops technologies, and then distributes it. “In the process of marketing our innovation, we get major shares for our production. We brand them with other concerns and collaborate with market icons in the technology realms,” Qureshi remarked.

    While the project is still in its early stage, Qureshi is confident that it will eventually become a game changer in the region’s power mix.

    Someone mention sodium earlier. These claims might need to be taken with a bit of salt.

  16. JimmyD @ #2367 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 6:55 pm

    Just to show how wrong P1 is, earlier this year, a Colorado utility received very low quotes for utility wind/solar plus battery, far cheaper than new coal, and cheaper than the state’s existing coal:

    The median bid for a wind project was $18.10/MWh; the median for wind+storage was $21, just three dollars higher. The median bid for a solar PV project was $29.50/MWh; the median bid for solar+storage was $36, just seven dollars higher. (Keep in mind what median means: Half the projects bid cheaper than this.)…

    According to Carbon Tracker, based on these bids, new wind+storage energy in Colorado is cheaper than energy from the state’s existing coal plants; solar+storage energy is cheaper than 75 percent of the state’s coal energy. This is worth repeating, because it’s a significant milestone: In Colorado, getting energy from new renewable energy projects with storage is cheaper than getting it from existing coal plants. Coal is dead.

    https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/1/16/16895594/colorado-renewable-energy-future

    Are you really as uninformed as this post makes you appear? Let me give you a hint – why do shops sometimes offer products at below cost? 🙁

  17. Cud Chewer @ #2372 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 6:59 pm

    Those figures for existing coal don’t factor in the escalating cost of maintenance.

    Clearly, you didn’t read the actual documents …

    Decomposition of the LCOE for various generation technologies by capital cost, fixed operations and maintenance expense, variable operations and maintenance expense and fuel cost, as relevant

    As for this childish nonsense …

    P1, just for the fun it saying it again. You’re an idiot.

    I’m glad you’re having fun. Because you are making yourself look like a simpleton.

  18. Wasn’t it Shorten who convinced Rudd to drop the ETS in 2010?
    No matter what it is, you can’t trust Shorten to go against Shorten’s best interests and that is to get and maintain power.

  19. Well, yes it has.
    We are facing an existential crisis now because certain people or political parties or business interests have refused to let the advancement of technology to develop to prevent the crisis.
    It’s a bit like arguing with some here who like the argument more than the solution.

  20. Shorten helped convince Rudd to drop the ETS in 2010.
    Then when moving against Gillard in 2013 Shorten said Rudd would protect Gillard’s great achievement of a Carbon Tax.

    Then when taking over as LOTO he said Labor would drop the Carbon Tax in favour of an ETS. But so far no such policy has ever been fleshed out and is not on the agenda of the ALP campaign:
    https://www.alp.org.au/campaigns/

  21. JimmyD @ #2386 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 7:15 pm

    PlayerOne – you are the only individual misrepresenting facts. That’s your thing.

    Perhaps you and Cud Chewer should go away and straighten out your arguments before we go any further.

    Trying to claim that I am misrepresenting independent reports that anyone can read and understand (but which you two clearly haven’t) – apparently on the basis that my stance on SSM was too nuanced for you to understand – is not really working out for you.

  22. Malcolm Turnbull

    Verified account

    @TurnbullMalcolm
    3m3 minutes ago
    More
    It was Mark Twain who said “Only fiction has to be credible.” But the @australian satirists outdid Orwell with their editorial today headed “Turnbull moderates blow up a centrist government” A centrist government was blown up; in August and it wasn’t done by moderates.

  23. Barney in Go Dau @ #2388 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 7:16 pm

    Labor has always said that while it’s not their preferred mechanism they would be willing to work with the Government on it.

    That’s what they say now. Here is what Shorten used to say about the NEG:

    The National Energy Guarantee, it’s a government attempt to pretend to do something about power prices when they’re not actually doing anything.

    Honestly, politicians on both sides must think the average voter has the attention span of a goldfish!

    Actually, they’re probably correct on that one 🙁

  24. Greensborough Growler @ #2395 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 4:22 pm

    @TurnbullMalcolm
    3m3 minutes ago
    More
    It was Mark Twain who said “Only fiction has to be credible.” But the @australian satirists outdid Orwell with their editorial today headed “Turnbull moderates blow up a centrist government” A centrist government was blown up; in August and it wasn’t done by moderates.

    Why is it that the right always see themselves as the centre?

    At least the left acknowledge that they are on the left.

  25. Player One @ #2394 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 3:30 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #2388 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 7:16 pm

    Labor has always said that while it’s not their preferred mechanism they would be willing to work with the Government on it.

    That’s what they say now Here is what Shorten used to say about the NEG:

    The National Energy Guarantee, it’s a government attempt to pretend to do something about power prices when they’re not actually doing anything.

    Honestly, politicians on both sides must think the average voter has the attention span of a goldfish!

    Actually, they’re probably correct on that one 🙁

    And where is the rest of what he said?

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