Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

After a Victorian election result decided entirely on state issues, a poll shows the Coalition doing every bit as badly at federal level.

A weekend to forget for the Coalition has been compounded by Newspoll’s finding that its federal operation is down yet another point, putting Labor’s lead at 55-45. Its primary vote is down a point to 34%, the equal lowest since the 2016 election, while Labor is steady on 40%, the Greens are unchanged on 9% and One Nation are up two to 6%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is down slightly, from 43-35 to 42-36. Nonetheless, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have improved since a fortnight ago, with approval up four to 43% and disapproval down five to 42%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 37% and steady on 50%. The poll will have been conducted Thursday to Sunday and the sample around 1700, although it’s not specified in the online report.

UPDATE: The sample size was 1717.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,597 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. Boerwar @ #2223 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 3:48 pm

    How much would it cost to store enough energy to run Australia for, say, 24 hours?

    Ignoring economies of scale and using Tesla Powerwall 2’s as the storage technology, I get AU$600 billion as an upper-bound. Or about $24K per person in Australia.

    Another AU$100 billion would probably buy enough solar panels to keep it charged.

    I say go for it.

  6. Wasn’t this a Labor promise?

    From Kelly O’Dwyer and Josh Frydenberg:

    The Coalition Government has today signed the determination that will remove the Goods and Services Tax (GST) on feminine hygiene products from 1 January 2019.

    The determination delivers on our Government’s commitment to achieving this long overdue reform to remove GST from feminine hygiene products.

  8. don @ #2212 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 4:37 pm

    Player One @ #2197 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 4:14 pm

    Cud Chewer @ #2184 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 4:02 pm

    Renewables + storage are cheaper NOW.

    Not yet true, unfortunately.

    If that were true, the nuclear plants would be being built in Australia now.

    Pretty hard to find, though, aren’t they?

    Have you applied to have one in your backyard yet?

    You seem to have missed a post. Yes, renewables + storage are (probably) cheaper than nuclear, but Cud Chewer was claiming that they are also cheaper than coal, which is not true – yet.

  9. Player One

    China’s population growth is 0.6% and declining.

    India’s population growth is 1.1% and declining.

    Australia’s population growth is 1.6% and not declining.

    Spot the odd one out

    Another spot the odd one out.
    India per capta CO2 1.74 tons
    China per capta CO2 7.5 tons
    Australia per capta CO2 15.4 tons

  10. Socrates @ #2227 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 4:48 pm

    On coal v alternatives:
    “Renewables + storage are cheaper NOW.
    Not yet true, unfortunately.”

    Both statements are too vague.

    Yes, I agree that we need to be more precise in our statements, and I will try to do so in future. This issue is too important for vagaries. Important policy decisions have to be made now, and they must be made on correct information.

  11. Cud

    Sorry missed that. We are agreed.

    P1

    You are dissembling again limping costs together and not distinguishing between new and old. Old coal plants are dearer than existing renewables and only slightly cheaper than new renewables. The jig is up for coal power.

  12. A good article IMO but with one proviso.

    If you rat on a Party:

    “Heav’n has no rage like love to hatred turn’d / Nor Hell a fury, like a woman scorn’d.”

    The problem I have with Badham here is that she analyses Banks’ plight and treatment as if it has ALL to do with gender. It would be interesting to see the language and frames used by roughly the same cast of characters when Cory ratted.

    As for the treatment of Labor rats, gendered or not, just you look out!

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/28/julia-banks-and-jacinda-ardern-show-its-womens-fate-to-be-diminished-and-objectified

  14. Player One @ #2238 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 3:57 pm

    China’s population growth is 0.6% and declining.

    India’s population growth is 1.1% and declining.

    Australia’s population growth is 1.6% and not declining.

    Spot the odd one out 🙁

    None of them, because they’re all still growing and population, as it relates to GHGE’s and the difficult of driving the total amount of emissions down in the face of an ever-increasing population, only matters globally? People moving from one place on the planet to another place on the planet doesn’t cause a change in population (unless they die en-route, or something).

    The rate of global population increase currently stands at 1.09% per year.

  16. ar

    lithium batteries are currently around $200/KWhr at grid scale, trending towards $100/KWhr by about 2022. If you need 360GWhr of storage (roughly 24 hours for the entire country) then its going to cost $72 billion.

    You do not need this depth of storage. Not now and probably never.

  17. BK, I heard that if all Victorian hydro dams were full and they were the only electricity supply for the state, they would last about three days.

    Their value is they can start up quickly, say, to react to a sudden change in demand (like a cold front hitting Melbourne) and also once built, they are cheap to maintain.

    The costs of building the dams is offset as the water going through the hydro plants is used for irrigation.

  18. BW, AR,

    Lop about 10% off any figure you come up with if you shut down Tomago. And another few % for the LNG trains in Gladstone.

  24. lizzie @ #2043 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 5:07 pm

    Wasn’t this a Labor promise?

    From Kelly O’Dwyer and Josh Frydenberg:

    The Coalition Government has today signed the determination that will remove the Goods and Services Tax (GST) on feminine hygiene products from 1 January 2019.

    The determination delivers on our Government’s commitment to achieving this long overdue reform to remove GST from feminine hygiene products.

    Yes, but any port in a storm. 🙂

  26. Boerwar @ #2250 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 4:05 pm

    ar
    I assume that you are technically competent.
    The numbers are humungous!

    Well yes, they’re an absolute worst-case scenario based on current consumer/retail level technology. Though even still, they’re not really that humongous.

    Australia could fund that entire amount with debt, and still have a better debt-to-GDP ratio than the United States.

  28. BW we need a few GWhr of storage in the next couple of years. Into the 2020s you might need 10-15GWhr. By that time the costs of storage come down also.

  29. Cud Chewer @ #2275 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 5:21 pm

    P1, I can forgive ignorance. What I cannot forgive is wilful ignorance.

    This is why I regard you as the worst kind of idiot and why I find you not worth my time.
    Btw the article you quickly googled doesn’t actually say what you want it to say.

    You throw false information around like confetti, and don’t like it when you get picked up on it.

    I will continue to pick you up on it. Every time.

  30. Someone yesterday posted a comment about Finn Stannard’s speech at his school assembly.

    I took the opportunity to watch (from SBS) and read his address in full.

    It was a wonderful speech. A speech which addressed his fears, hopes and joy at being able to express who he is. A speech which took place in an environment one may have expected him to have been reviled and ostracized instead of applauded, by a standing ovation no less.

    A speech which while made me very happy that it could take place, also made me very envious.

    I recall back to my own (very short lived) time at a religious based, boys only, residential institution located bayside Melbourne where in what was second form, now year eight, and separated from family approaching who I thought would be an approachable individual for advice about sexual orientation uncertainty.

    The response I received was to be sent to the Principle of this august institution as I was obviously deviant and needed either discipline or expulsion or both. As it transpired the first approach was to give me ’12 of the best’ with the strap, I refused to hold out my hands so received them on my legs and then for my parents to be called and suggested that this school was not ‘right’ for me and that I would be better placed in another one.

    It not only made me determined to be who I am, but convinced me of the hypocrisy of organised religion.

    I applaud Finn Stannard for his courage at standing before his school and allowing his story to be broadcast nationally. I applaud all those who have had the courage to do so, even at great risk to themselves.

    How the response to coming out has changed, and so much for the better.

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/full-speech-finn-stannard-s-2018-keynote-address

  31. poroti current generation lithium would have a useful life of around 15 years. In the mean time other technologies will come to the fore. I’m also a big fan of pumped hydro but only in the easiest locations.

  33. “Do the costings for the coal fired stations take into account health and environmental costs ?”

    ROFL

    What do you reckon?!

  34. Bernard Keane hits the nail squarely on the head:

    Up until mid-year, the government, mainly thanks to Mathias Cormann’s discipline, managed to control spending — especially compared to the Abbott years. But the main reason for the return to surplus is the surge in revenue delivered by higher company profits, and in particular higher commodity prices. The iron ore price now looks to have peaked, but it has helped deliver billions in extra revenue. Rather than continue its fiscal restraint and bank all of that, giving Australia greater fiscal firepower to confront future external shocks, the government is now spending much of that extra revenue.

    But even assuming the return to surplus has been won through hard work, the assumption that a budget surplus is the basis for electoral victory is old thinking. A budget surplus doesn’t increase wages growth. In fact, Morrison when Treasurer claimed wages growth would return when companies started becoming more profitable. Now higher profits are fueling his election war chest, but wages growth remains non-existent. The budget forecasts WPI growth of 2.75% this year. Will MYEFO downgrade that yet again, as the government has had to do over the last five years? What about the 3.25% 2019-20 forecast? Will the April budget downgrade that, too? That’s the key number for ordinary Australians, not whether a temporary surge in revenue puts the budget into the black.

  37. Poroti

    No I was only quoting operating cost. Adding health, remediation and a carbon price would make coal even dearer. Hence my comment the jig is up for coal, even ignoring all the indirect costs.

    P1
    Energy costs should be enough to kill off coal now. IMO only corruption and / or politics are keeping it alive. There are now deliberate attempts to subsidise it eg Angus Taylor’s attempts to pay for a new plant. Current plants should all be pensioned off when they reach their refurb date.

  39. So, The Greens really do have an aversion to investigating anyone in federal parliament that has anything to do with au pairs:

    Labor has also tried to find out what the go was with the au pairs, but lost the vote after only Derryn Hinch voted with them on this motion from Louise Pratt:

    Response to Legal and Constitutional Affairs References Committee report—Allegations concerning inappropriate exercise of ministerial powers with respect to au pairs—Attendance of minister (altered 17 October and 13 November 2018 – SO 77)

  40. Socrates its probably more likely that the coal fired power will get mothballed and then closed sooner than currently planned. Leaving behind the gas generators as backup (not peaking, sorry P1/idiot).

  42. C@tmomma @ #2289 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 4:34 pm

    Late Riser @ #2075 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 5:33 pm

    A budget surplus doesn’t increase wages growth.

    This echoes my thoughts from last night, along the lines of who gets this surplus?

    Wealthy individuals in the form of tax cuts for business and the working wealthy.

    It was late, but I think Peter Stanton and I agreed that the surplus were to be found playing golf on Wednesday and sailing their boats on Thursday. 😉

  43. Lizzie, excellent point about the deal Labor did re payments to migrants.

    As usual, politics being the art of the possible is what Labor is all about.

    The Greens, not so much.

  45. Cud Chewer @ #2282 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 5:28 pm

    Well piss off P1. The simple fact is that renewables+storage is cheaper than new coal or gas NOW.

    Deal with it.

    I am. It is true to say that new renewables (more specifically, wind) are cheaper than new coal. But you cannot yet say that new renewables plus storage are cheaper than new coal. And they are certainly not cheaper than existing coal.

    All this was in the article I posted.

  48. Socrates @ #2287 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 5:32 pm

    Current plants should all be pensioned off when they reach their refurb date.

    I generally agree with what you are saying, except for that bit. We need to actively drive coal generation out of business, not wait for natural attrition to do it for us.

    This is why we need an ETS (or EIS) – it positively punishes dirty generation by costing it correctly, instead of just hoping cleaner generation will eventually eliminate it.

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