Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

After a Victorian election result decided entirely on state issues, a poll shows the Coalition doing every bit as badly at federal level.

A weekend to forget for the Coalition has been compounded by Newspoll’s finding that its federal operation is down yet another point, putting Labor’s lead at 55-45. Its primary vote is down a point to 34%, the equal lowest since the 2016 election, while Labor is steady on 40%, the Greens are unchanged on 9% and One Nation are up two to 6%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is down slightly, from 43-35 to 42-36. Nonetheless, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have improved since a fortnight ago, with approval up four to 43% and disapproval down five to 42%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 37% and steady on 50%. The poll will have been conducted Thursday to Sunday and the sample around 1700, although it’s not specified in the online report.

UPDATE: The sample size was 1717.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,597 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

  1. Bloody hell, I know Morrison’s pretty hopeless, but they’re not seriously thinking of rolling him already, are they?

    Even Nathan Rees got longer than this!

  2. Asha Leu @ #1988 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 4:17 pm

    Bloody hell, I know Morrison’s pretty hopeless, but they not seriously thinking of rolling him already, are they?

    It’s hard to believe, isn’t it? I think it’s more a sign of the civil war between the Moderates and the Reactionary Conservatives in the Liberal Party which is just about to break out into the open, and the leadership is a proxy for that.

  3. I could see Bishop launching a spill. Abbott and team may come on board if their judgement is that Morrison is not cutting through and will see them wiped out. Bishop is likely to lose too. But, the number of seats lost would be reduced which makes the next election easier for whomever replaces Bishop.

  4. Asha Leu

    Is there something, in particular, arising today that suggests Morrison is under threat from within? I know he’s toast by just about any measure but I’m curious if there’s immediate scuttlebutt that Journalists are reporting.

  5. Boerwar @ #2181 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 3:59 pm

    If you count in the externalities of coal and gas then nuclear is cheaper than coal and gas.
    It does not go to sleep.
    It does not have storage costs.
    A properly built and maintained power unit will last for a generation.
    IMO, in pure policy terms vis a vis acting in time for global warming, the major problem for nuclear is the lead times.

    And when it goes wrong, it does so in a spectacular way!

  6. Isn’t Bishop after Hockey’s job in Washington which becomes available in Jan 2019? I reckon that’s a gig that would beat the job of opposition leader for a generation.

  7. …likely to lose too. But, the number of seats lost would be reduced which makes the next election easier…

    I have been thinking they are in the save the furniture mode as well…I think that they think that Abbott would be a better bet – Rudd III as it were. Far less than 50% chance of any move on Morrison, but not 0% chance either.

  8. Player One @ #2180 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 3:01 pm

    You have to wonder how long it’s going to take before people start getting the message. I suspect the answer is going to be “too long” 🙁

    What? I’m all for having meaningful (read “global”) limits on population growth. But that would require restricting the number of children that each person can have. Which I’m personally fine with but which will also never fly, politically.

    Even China couldn’t stick with it. Western nations, with the Christian tradition of “go forth and multiply” more or less built-in, have zero chance.

    Although climate change and impending military conflicts may temporarily solve the problem for us, as the former will decimate the populations of poorer nations and the latter will decimate the wealthy ones.

  9. I think that Bishop is basically telling the boys that if she became PM it would be on her terms or none at all. In other words, she is basically turning down the job (without saying it). That’s why she’s been so outspoken recently. Quite a bright approach, really, if you don’t want to be PM.
    I hope that makes sense!

  10. cc
    “Why are you pro nuclear when it is clearly a bad choice of technology now and forever?”
    I’m pro-nuclear for countries that already have nuclear and don’t have good renewable options, esp solar and wind.
    And obviously Australia doesn’t meet either criterion so I’m anti-nuclear for us. I still think we should mine it and export it.

  11. Dio if you’ve already got nuclear you might as well use it, because you’re going to have to pay for the decomm.

    However here in Oz its a no-brainer for renewables + storage.

  12. And batteries have been very slow to improve. Think of the progress in computing power over our generation. My iPhone has more computing power than NASA used to get to the moon. But the battery still doesn’t last 24 hours.

  13. Judith Sloan is on $357,000 a year? Holy Jesus. They could get someone really, really good for $100,000. The Australian is obviously a huge gravy train for the insiders. Imagine what the Bromancer gets or Paul Kelly. Definitely way north of 1/2 million each. No wonder they write any s… Rupe wants.

  14. yes I can see what O’Sullivan’s game was now – if he never mentioned the words ‘double meaning’, most probably no one would have thought of it. And so putting the thought into people’s mind was exactly his intention.
    Thanks everyone for your responses.

  15. My sense is that the crazies in the Coalition cannot stand Bishop, even more than they couldn’t stand Turnbull. On top of this, were Bishop to take the job, I do not think she would take it at any cost like Turnbull did. It would be on her terms, which would probably mean such things as locking in at least some sort of climate change policy, and that just won’t fly with the deniers. I certainly don’t think a leadership change is out of the question, but I can’t see it being Bishop. Abbott or Frydenberg I’d say.

  16. C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, November 28, 2018 at 4:16 pm
    “… we can’t know O’Sullivan’s mind when he made that comment …”

    ————————————-

    YES!!

    Too many people forget this point when discussing a perpetrator’s intent. We each have ‘privileged access’ to the contents of our own mind.

    All we can ever ‘know’ of the contents of any other person’s mind is inferences which we draw from the behaviour of theirs that we observe, including verbal or written affirmations or denials, which could be either truthful or not.

    It follows from this that ‘evidence of intent to do X’ simply is just ‘observations of behaviours which are consistent with doing X, or inconsistent with not doing X’. We then employ what psychologists term a ‘theory of mind’ to project a presumption in favour of an ‘intention to do X’ upon those observations of behaviour.

    Every criminal defence lawyer drills defendants who are pleading ‘not guilty’ to declare “I didn’t intend to kill her”, any time they are asked if they did. But courts look for objective evidence of intent – such as the defendant arriving at the victim’s house with a firearm carefully cleaned, fully loaded and cunningly concealed – not subjective confessions of it. This basic epistemological impossibility of directly knowing the contents of another person’s mind is the reason why.

    Regarding O’Sullivan, his comment to SHY was humiliating, despite his disingenuous disavowal of any intent to humiliate. Stupidly, he also drew attention to the humiliating nature of his slander by that very disavowal. But that disavowal was unnecessary to render his slander humiliating.

  17. Rex Douglas:

    [‘Women bring the slurs on themselves huh … riiiight.’]

    I’m not saying I agree with Bernardi; just showing it from the perspective of a RWNJ.

    The main protagonist (O’Sullivan) will be out of the Senate come July, as I think will be the odious Macdonald.

  18. Diogenes @ #2212 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 3:39 pm

    And batteries have been very slow to improve. Think of the progress in computing power over our generation. My iPhone has more computing power than NASA used to get to the moon. But the battery still doesn’t last 24 hours.

    I think that’s only half right. Your iPhone is also doing a hell of a lot more than what NASA’s on board computers were doing. Compare it to the early days of mobile phones, when it was usual for a battery to last for days.

  19. Don

    ‘And when it goes wrong, it does so in a spectacular way!’

    This is true. But, IMO, not entirely a bad thing either. Chernobyl was a spectacular biodiversity bonanza. From memory, the only long term impact was on, of all things, the size of bird brains. Perhaps the Coalition has been doing Party Room meetings yonder.

    Now Fukushima is the real thing. Totally fukt.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/fukushima-nuclear-meltdown-robot-drones-photograph-reactor-uranium-fuel-radiation-power-plant-a8068971.html

  20. Matt31 – It’s exquisite really. Bishop is the only one who might improve the standing of the Libs. But she won’t take the job unless she gets complete authority (as she is making clear) and the boys won’t give it to her. She’s saying to the party: don’t try and draft me, chaps, unless I get to do what I want.

  21. Diogenes @ #2214 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 4:39 pm

    And batteries have been very slow to improve. Think of the progress in computing power over our generation. My iPhone has more computing power than NASA used to get to the moon. But the battery still doesn’t last 24 hours.

    Agreed. It is the one thing that mitigates against most home owners going off grid, or against the complete conversion of all nations’ electricity supply to renewable energy.

  22. On coal v alternatives:
    “Renewables + storage are cheaper NOW.
    Not yet true, unfortunately.”

    Both statements are too vague. New renewables + storage are cheaper than new coal now. Existing coal is cheaper than new renewables + storage at present but won’t be for much longer.

    When old coal plants require major rebuilds they cease to be cheaper than renewables. This is why old plant owners want to close them (e.g. Liddell). Nuclear is dearer than all of them. I used to be in favour of nuclear but it has become clear to me the nuclear industry was lying about promises of gen III reactors.

  23. Much as I despise Sullivan, I think there is one mitigating factor. I don’t think he STARTED off the sentence intending to make a smutty innuendo. However, because he has a smutty mind, when he stumbled onto one he: (a) recognised it; and (b) could not stop trying to make a joke. It’s his locker-room mind that did him in.

  24. Ketan Joshi

    Fun science tip: if you have not been personally presented with a piece of information or scientific research, it still exists when you are not looking at it.

  25. Diog – I read somewhere that a 1TB hard drive (now less than $100) would have cost more than $10 million 20 years ago and taken up the whole floor of a major building.

  26. Boerwar @ #2015 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 4:50 pm

    FWIW, and it is a 100% guess, JBishop is setting herself up for LOTO next May and PM between three and six years thereafter.

    She would be in her mid 70s by then! I know we are moving ahead with an appreciation of all the things Senior Australians are still capable of, but I don’t think running the country successfully is one of them.

  27. Regarding Chernobyl. I happened to be in southern Germany when Chernobyl happened, and back in the North West USA in the weeks following. The psychological impact was real and long term. In Europe children were brought inside and told not to go out. Fresh food especially vegetables were destroyed. The radioactive cloud was tracked as it swept westwards and across Canada. The memories of that event will remain fresh among a lot of people. My ears perk up at the word Chernobyl.

  28. a r @ #2208 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 4:33 pm

    Player One @ #2180 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 3:01 pm

    You have to wonder how long it’s going to take before people start getting the message. I suspect the answer is going to be “too long” 🙁

    What? I’m all for having meaningful (read “global”) limits on population growth. But that would require restricting the number of children that each person can have. Which I’m personally fine with but which will also never fly, politically.

    Even China couldn’t stick with it. Western nations, with the Christian tradition of “go forth and multiply” more or less built-in, have zero chance.

    Although climate change and impending military conflicts may temporarily solve the problem for us, as the former will decimate the populations of poorer nations and the latter will decimate the wealthy ones.

    China’s population growth is 0.6% and declining.

    India’s population growth is 1.1% and declining.

    Australia’s population growth is 1.6% and not declining.

    Spot the odd one out 🙁

  29. Boerwar @ #2022 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 4:54 pm

    C
    That is ageist, IMO.
    After all, 70 is the new 50.

    Not Ageist. Honest. I’m sick of people thinking silly thoughts like, 70 is the new 50′. No, 70 is 70 is 70, and all the attendant degenerative maladies, both physical, mental and energetic, fall upon you like autumn leaves to the ground as you age. To varying degrees, of course, but in some way, shape or form.

    Sorry, but running a government and a country is for the 65 and below cohort, imho.

  30. This is what irritates me about Greens like Rex/Peg wailing same-same. There is usually a story behind the vote which explains Labor’s action. See below.

    The original bill would have made migrants wait four years before they could access a whole range of welfare payments.

    Under the deal with Labor, the waiting time will be cut down to just one or two years for carers’ payments, parental leave pay and the Family Tax Benefit A, but will remain at four years for Newstart, the backbone unemployment payment commonly known as the dole.

    Shadow treasurer Chris Bowen said Labor would “never” have supported the bill in its original form, but said the agreed changes now made it a bill the party could “live with”.

    He said caucus had signed off on the deal on Tuesday.

    “What we did is saved hundreds of thousands of families from being impacted and reduce the impact dramatically by reducing those four-year waiting times to one or two years in most instances. That’s a good outcome, a better outcome,” Mr Bowen told SBS News.

    He said refusing to negotiate on the bill would have “opened the door for parties like One Nation and Fraser Anning to negotiate with the government on it”.

    “We took the view it was better to negotiate with the government ourselves, try and get an arrangement which we could live with and support in all good conscience, and that’s what we did.”

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/migrants-to-wait-four-years-for-newstart-after-government-does-deal-with-labor

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