Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

After a Victorian election result decided entirely on state issues, a poll shows the Coalition doing every bit as badly at federal level.

A weekend to forget for the Coalition has been compounded by Newspoll’s finding that its federal operation is down yet another point, putting Labor’s lead at 55-45. Its primary vote is down a point to 34%, the equal lowest since the 2016 election, while Labor is steady on 40%, the Greens are unchanged on 9% and One Nation are up two to 6%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is down slightly, from 43-35 to 42-36. Nonetheless, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have improved since a fortnight ago, with approval up four to 43% and disapproval down five to 42%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 37% and steady on 50%. The poll will have been conducted Thursday to Sunday and the sample around 1700, although it’s not specified in the online report.

UPDATE: The sample size was 1717.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,597 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. Guardian:

    Kerryn Phelps has introduced a private members bill to amend the migration act to get any remaining children off Nauru (with their families)

    At this stage it looks like lacking the absolute majority needed to suspend standing orders to bring on the debate.

  2. “This has the smell of a Leadership coup brewing.”

    GG, i cannot believe that even this Mob of Dysfunctional Muppets are THAT politically suicidal.

    Ok, there is ample evidence that they may be, but the doGs above just aint THAT good to the left of Australian Politics. 🙂

  3. Michael A says:
    Wednesday, November 28, 2018 at 11:30 am
    Confessions says:
    Wednesday, November 28, 2018 at 10:07 am
    Michael A:

    The rumours yesterday were that she’d run in Deakin. But I reckon Lao makes a good case for Kooyong being a better electorate.

    As a Labor voter, I’d love Banks to contest Kooyong: bump off a Liberal Treasurer, Deakin a more likely Labor gain, Sukkar worth votes & $$$ for Labor the more people who hear him.

    I also think Kooyong is a more progressive seat than Deakin: higher SSM vote (74-66); fewer over-55’s (27.7-28.8); more “no religion” (36.6-35.7); more female (52.3-51.8). Phelps in Wentworth shows how an affluent but socially progressive seat will embrace an Independent but not Labor.
    Wouldn’t it make more sense, if Banks does run as an independent, for her to stay exactly where she is and contest Chisholm? That is the seat she represents, where she is best known and surely where she would have the better chance of being reelected to Parliament.

  4. Yes, regrettable when Labor deals quickly and decisively with it’s sexual harassment incidents…

    Perhaps Mr Foley might have ridden the matter out if not for the parliamentary jibe by Corrections minister David Elliott in state Parliament last month when he claimed Mr Foley had “harassed” a then unnamed ABC journalist at a November 2016 Christmas party.
    The identity of Ms Raper – though not the precise details of Mr Foley’s alleged actions – has been an open secret within journalistic and political circles for months. Nothing was aired because of her privately expressed desire not to be forced into making a complaint and her wish for the matter not to become public.

    To suggest no one at Sussex Street knew early on about the incident is beyond belief.

    Labor acted “decisively” because it could no longer keep the lid on the matter.

  5. Authorities are comparing the central Queensland bushfire threat to a category five cyclone, with fires expected to break containment lines and residents told to leave immediately.

    It seems like these fires have been burning for days. I am glad I don’t have to make the agonizing decision to stay and fight or flee for safety.

  6. Peg look’s such the pathetic hold out

    Even Lee Rhiannon held Labor’s quick move on Foley as a morally superior model that the Green’s are shamefully and embarrassingly light years below

  7. Four years of cutting and pasting down the drain in Victoria and now Peg is out and about smearing Labor for the Greens’ failure to control their urges.

  8. First Q a win to the Opposition.
    It was on the Coalition’s ceasing to fund an domestic violence prevention program.
    This item came up as a Cockup, BTW.

  9. @Boerwar

    When it comes to climate change, the people can’t have both meaningful action on climate change and lower electricity prices at the same time, unless we invest in nuclear power. The complete nationalization of the production and infrastructure side of the electricity sector would need to happen as well.

  10. Sir Henry Parkes says:
    Wednesday, November 28, 2018 at 1:49 pm

    “Wouldn’t it make more sense, if Banks does run as an independent, for her to stay exactly where she is and contest Chisholm?”

    Maybe. I don’t have a view on what her aspirations are, or should be.

    My point is that, if Banks were simply leaving Parliament, Labor would be a 99%+ chance of winning back Chisholm. A straight Labor gain would obviously be much better from a pro-Labor, or left-leaning, or socioeconomically progressive perspective, than a retention of Chisholm by an economically right-of-centre ex-Liberal Independent.

    And Chisholm is not some long-shot roughie for Labor, like Wentworth is. Labor in fact held the seat for six straight Federal elections over 18 years from 1998-2016. They would absolutely include Chisholm in any list of seats they are going to want to hold if they want to form and retain Government.

    It would be interesting to learn how a Labor-Liberal-Banks voting intention would split in Chisholm, given a strong anti-Liberal Victoria-wide electoral environment. I suspect the final TCP would be Labor-Banks, not Labor-Liberal or Banks-Liberal.

  11. Playing the person, the tactic of the same minority of bludgers, is simply a reflection of how tribalised our society has become.

    One has only to see it every day on PB.

    So sad, so much hatred.


    Meanwhile, Jane Prentice has been moved to sit next to Julie Bishop in the House. Bishop seemed a little confused as to what was happening at first, and consulted the new seating plan, (at least that is what it looked like from up here in the press gallery benches) but all is sorted now.

    Who makes the seating plan? Are the Liberals trying to quarantine their problem?

  13. ‘Tristo says:
    Wednesday, November 28, 2018 at 2:10 pm


    When it comes to climate change, the people can’t have both meaningful action on climate change and lower electricity prices at the same time, unless we invest in nuclear power. The complete nationalization of the production and infrastructure side of the electricity sector would need to happen as well.’

    Nuclear power is the most expensive of the lot.

  14. Foreign Minister Julie Bishop has been given an online moniker by some of ‘Jewellery Bigshop’ because of her Kardashian-like behaviour of chasing cameras. In 2007, when then Deputy Opposition Leader Julia Gillard appeared on the front cover of the Australian Weekend magazine and the ABC’s Life Etc magazine, Bishop said Gillard was behaving like a “fashion model or TV star… I don’t think it’s necessary to get dressed up in designer clothing and borrow clothing and make-up to grace the cover of magazines… You’re not a celebrity, you’re an elected representative, you’re a Member of Parliament. You’re not Hollywood and I think that when people overstep that line they miss the whole point of that public role”1. Bishop also said that posing for magazine covers was “not my style”. Gillard retorted, labelling then Education Minister a “silly sausage” and “mistress of the trivial issue”.

    What has Bishop done since? She has chased cameras everywhere, and gives the impression that being Foreign Minister is only a part-time job. She has done a cover shoot for Harper’s Bazaar in November 2014; has been interviewed by Who magazine in December 2014; in 2015, it was Vogue. Now, she has appeared on the September, 2018 cover of The Australian Women’s Weekly. Her hobby seems to be attending sporting events, especially polo and horseracing, as well as fashion shows, where she can be photographed with her fly-in fly-out toy boy (he is about seven years her junior), David Panton . Bishop does not claim Panton as her partner, but nominates him for the purposes of ‘family travel’ (i.e. so taxpayers pay for his travel). This allows her to get her leg over, but not have to declare his assets on the declaration of interests. Her hypocrisy knows no bounds, yet she is seen as the ‘cleanest’ contender for leadership of the Liberal Party, as Turnbull’s leadership seems to be in terminal decline, while the most prominent contender, Peter Dutton, is only marginally more popular among the general public than genital warts.

    I agree with this assessment of Bishop.

  15. PatriciaKarvelas

    Verified account

    My analysis: There’s open despair among MPs. One told me that sometimes he wishes a no confidence motion was successful to “put us out of our misery” early and force a general election. It was a shocking admission.

  16. sprocket_ @ #1938 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 12:37 pm

    Frightening evidence of what the pilots went through in the doomed LionAir Max8

    What is needed is a kill switch for the automatic system.

    The klaxons can come on all they like, but there has to be a way of telling the automatic pilot to shut down completely until further notice.

    It should be activated by a simple procedure, such as what the pilots tried, pulling back all the way on the control column.

    Like putting a car in park.

    Doesn’t matter, but it has to be simple and intuitive.

  17. B and Roger, etc

    You have NFI (a delightful abbreviation I learnt here) about my lived experience.

    If you did, you would never suggest I condone misogyny, rape, sexual harrassment….

    Smearing is certainly what you do on a daily basis in countless repetitive comments.

    Your behaviour is a reflection on you and how low you will go to personalise issues.

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