Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

After a Victorian election result decided entirely on state issues, a poll shows the Coalition doing every bit as badly at federal level.

A weekend to forget for the Coalition has been compounded by Newspoll’s finding that its federal operation is down yet another point, putting Labor’s lead at 55-45. Its primary vote is down a point to 34%, the equal lowest since the 2016 election, while Labor is steady on 40%, the Greens are unchanged on 9% and One Nation are up two to 6%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is down slightly, from 43-35 to 42-36. Nonetheless, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have improved since a fortnight ago, with approval up four to 43% and disapproval down five to 42%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 37% and steady on 50%. The poll will have been conducted Thursday to Sunday and the sample around 1700, although it’s not specified in the online report.

UPDATE: The sample size was 1717.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,597 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

  1. Just 2 days ago Briefly called me an ‘it’ and said that ‘it deserves resentment’.

    No I didn’t. You must have mis-read the post. You’d be well-advised not to verbal the bludgers. You can also drop the supremacist act. It won’t wash.

  2. lizzie

    The idea that migrants arrive and then “just go on welfare” is straight from 2GB land. Migrants now will be not much different from the ”old days’ when it comes to wanting to get ahead.

  3. sprocket_ says:
    Wednesday, November 28, 2018 at 12:43 pm

    Why should migrants – non refugee migrants – be entitled to welfare as soon as they arrive? Curious to know the case for.
    ———————————————-
    Why would the so-called humans who are members of one of the wealthiest human societies ever to exist deny any chance of supporting their fellow human beings, if misfortune should befall them and deny any chance for them to survive otherwise?
    Seems like being a bunch of fearful and selfish nongs with no real understanding of the facts of the matter would be one reason for voting yes in such a matter.
    I am sure it has been reported many times in many places that actually, migrants and even refugees in general work harder and contribute more to Australian economic activity than Australian born people.
    Seems right to me.
    I would say that overall more Aussies are more lazy, arrogant and ignorant than most overseas born people I know who have made it here more recently.
    Seems like another ample example of how those who end up with the most are generally the most mercenary scumbags.

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-wealth-reduces-compassion/
    “Who is more likely to lie, cheat, and steal—the poor person or the rich one? It’s temping to think that the wealthier you are, the more likely you are to act fairly. After all, if you already have enough for yourself, it’s easier to think about what others may need. But research suggests the opposite is true: as people climb the social ladder, their compassionate feelings towards other people decline.”

  4. The chinese are marking 40 years since Deng Xiaoping started to open up China. The comrades even flew in Milton Friedman to help tell them what to do . The comrades decided he was not worth listening to. What a pity a bit more of that approach to Milton was taken in the West. Not that you would ever want their government though.

    China’s Economy Became No. 2 by Defying No. 1

    They invited Mr. Friedman — the Nobel laureate and champion of economic freedom — to Zhongnanhai, the walled compound in Beijing where the country’s most senior leaders live and work. Sitting down with Zhao Ziyang, the …

    https://outline.com/m7y7J6

  5. C@tmomma @ #1959 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 1:05 pm

    Zoidlord @ #1736 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 12:44 pm

    Dom Lorrimer
    ‏ @DomLorrimer
    25m25 minutes ago

    Julia Banks MP and Anne Aly MP in the House of Reps after a divison
    <a href="” rel=”nofollow”>” rel=”nofollow”>

    Julia Banks could always stand for the Labor Party at the next election. And win. They do it in America all the time, switch parties.

    She could run in Menzies, Chisholm or Kooyong and steal another jewel from the Liberal party crown.

  6. @billmckibben

    Europe’s third largest insurer (and Italy’s largest) says it will no longer insure coal mines or plants. Fossil fuel becomes a bit more of a pariah

  7. quoll

    ‘I would say that overall more Aussies are more lazy, arrogant and ignorant than most overseas born people I know who have made it here more recently.’

    Typical Greens.

  8. lizzie

    What I am hearing in this legislation is the sort of bullshit Murdoch etc. have pumped out for years in the UK tabloids. Endless claims of “immigrants” getting ‘free’ phones,cars,flats etc etc. as they sit on their arses living of ‘welfare’ . Back in Howard’s time the same claims started popping up here.

  9. ‘doyley says:
    Wednesday, November 28, 2018 at 12:43 pm

    Good morning all,

    The liberals really need to go back to school and re do politics 101.

    If Pyne had stayed away from making threats to the cross bench….’

    Classic, really. The Liberals don’t bully women except when they bully women.

  10. “Why should migrants – non refugee migrants – be entitled to welfare as soon as they arrive? Curious to know the case for.”
    —————————————

    For exactly the same reason we would let a natural-born Australian be entitled to welfare as soon as they are independent of their parents: nobody knows when they will be struck down by misfortune and need to rely upon it to get by until they can stand on their own two feet again.

  11. poroti @ #1757 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 1:12 pm

    lizzie

    What I am hearing in this legislation is the sort of bullshit Murdoch etc. have pumped out for years in the UK tabloids. Endless claims of “immigrants” getting ‘free’ phones,cars,flats etc etc. as they sit on their arses living of ‘welfare’ . Back in Howard’s time the same claims started popping up here.

    Hearing from whom? Coalition MPs? Coalition supporters on other social media platforms? And, anyway, what relevance do those opinions have anyway? They’re not being written into the legislation as amendments are they?

    At the end of the day the legislation is about Migrants. These days, people and families who migrate here under their own financial steam.

  12. Has Husar met with Shorten yet?…supposed to be today iirc.

    NSW Labor doesn’t want her to stand as its candidate in Lindsay…no support there.

    Will Shorten support her?

  13. The Greens are trying to force a Code of Conduct down everyone’s throat when they do not meet that Code themselves.

    It is quite a good Code, IMO.

    Have the Greens who tried to sack S H-Y as a candidate been dealt with in line with the Code?
    Have the serious breaches of the Code in the ACT been dealt with?
    Have the various breaches of the Code in Victoria been dealt with?
    Have the serious breaches of the Code in NSW been dealt with?

    The Greens signal virtue; behave sordid.

  14. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/28/australia-isnt-on-track-to-meet-its-2030-emissions-target-un-report-says

    Australia is not on track to meet its 2030 emissions reduction targets and global greenhouse gas emissions are showing no signs of peaking, a new UN report has warned.

    In its annual emissions gap report, which looks at the gap between carbon reduction policies countries have in place and what is required to keep global warming to well below 2C, the UN says global emissions have reached record highs.

    It warns that about half of the G20 countries, including Australia, will fall short of meeting their nationally determined contributions under the Paris agreement and, even if they do meet them, they are still not ambitious enough to restrict warming to the levels needed.

    “Current commitments expressed in the NDCs are inadequate to bridge the emissions gap in 2030,” the report warns.

  15. ‘I would say that overall more Aussies are more lazy, arrogant and ignorant than most overseas born people I know who have made it here more recently’

    And yet the communities who voted against same sex marriage were mostly overseas born.

  16. Stop picking on the Greens hypocricy!

    The Greens might by dripping with misogyny and have an epidemic of sexual harassment and poor treatment of women that Di Natale is to coward to front up to.

    But look at the brave stand he is taking in the senate these last couple of days about sexism and bullying from others outside of his party. So brave and righteous. His christ like political sacrifice gives all the Green fellow travellers, including the regulars here at PB, full rights to focus on Labor’s barely comparable situations

    People just pick on the Greens to make it harder for them to be Labor’s conscience

  17. Gareth
    says:
    Wednesday, November 28, 2018 at 1:31 pm
    Second mention of that quote nath. Didn’t get the rile you expected the first time round?
    _____________________
    I thought it was too good just to use once. It’s hilarious!

  18. poroti,

    Both major parties have resisted implementing a code of conduct for parliamentarians for years. The Greens party has attempted to remedy this but to nop avail.

    For example in 2012:

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-code-of-conduct-is-no-ethical-cure-all-20120604-1zsc4.html

    Spurred on by the crossbenchers, committees in both the House of Representative and the Senate have been considering recently the merits of a parliamentary code of conduct and an independent commissioner for parliamentary standards. When faced with the growing clamour over Slipper and Thomson, Gillard was quick to give her in-principle blessing to a code of conduct. Indeed, she had already committed herself formally to a code and a commissioner in her original agreements with the independent MPs when she formed her government.

    Whether any of the proposed changes are put into legislation remains to be seen. History suggests the most likely result will be a long period of fitful discussion, while public outrage gradually cools and moves on to other targets. In the end, the proposals will probably be quietly pigeon-holed, ready to be brought out again in response to the next bout of deplorable behaviour by individual parliamentarians.

    It is entirely the right time for the Greens to attempt once again on the back of the deplorable comment by O’Sullivan to SHY yesterday.

  19. Crikey

    …But the PM barely had time to slip into something more comfortable before the whole thing was blown up by Julia Banks, who savaged the “reactionary right wing” of her own party and “the level of regard and respect for women in politics” and left his party. Nothing could better illustrate how the deep-seated problems of this government can’t be papered over with a veneer of politics-as-usual from a Prime Minister hopelessly out of his depth.

    …The other structural problem, not unrelated, is more serious. There’s a far-right rump in the Australian polity. Part of it is inside the Liberal Party and LNP; part of it is in the News Corp-owned media and on 2GB. It is a cancer that is killing the party by making it ever less focused on issues of relevance to real people, and more focused on the obsessions of a minority of angry, wealthy old white men and religious obsessives. Banks knows that. Kelly O’Dwyer — whose preselection has been threatened by exactly those kind of people — knows that. Plenty of Victorian Liberals now know that. Holding press conferences about the sitting calendar isn’t going to hide that this deep-seated problem within the Liberals needs to be dealt with.

  20. I think migrants are probably not a very representative sample of any population. They have self selected to move so they are a pretty special bunch. If you looked at Aussie who moved to Asia, they’d probably be pretty motivated and worldly.

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