Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

After a Victorian election result decided entirely on state issues, a poll shows the Coalition doing every bit as badly at federal level.

A weekend to forget for the Coalition has been compounded by Newspoll’s finding that its federal operation is down yet another point, putting Labor’s lead at 55-45. Its primary vote is down a point to 34%, the equal lowest since the 2016 election, while Labor is steady on 40%, the Greens are unchanged on 9% and One Nation are up two to 6%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is down slightly, from 43-35 to 42-36. Nonetheless, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have improved since a fortnight ago, with approval up four to 43% and disapproval down five to 42%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 37% and steady on 50%. The poll will have been conducted Thursday to Sunday and the sample around 1700, although it’s not specified in the online report.

UPDATE: The sample size was 1717.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,597 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. How did scomo’s marketing company stay in business?

    If I was planning a way to mobilise students to protest for climate action, my best case plan would be for the PM to tell them to butt out and leave it to the adults, and then call in the police to block the students from walking peacefully into Parliament House.

    He could not have managed that worse

  2. “Mr Morrison will still attend the meeting, but is now not expected to have a formal meeting with US President Donald Trump after being left off a list of bilateral sit downs announced by the White House.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2018/nov/28/coalition-labor-morrison-dutton-shorten-australian-politics-live

    Add this to Wentworth and the Indonesian bilateral relationship, and that Jerusalem embassy move “conversation” our PM started has really paid him dividends, hasn’t it?

    What was Morrison’s expertise before entering Parliament again?

  3. It is interesting, in a very progressive, open minded forum some people choose to be vicious, elitist and sneering at those of us who choose to live outside Sydney and Melbourne.
    We don’t all have the education, opportunity, wealth, confidence or character to live in a big city.
    I moved to Adelaide from Sydney last year despite a great career and home because I found the congestion, snobbery, property and wealth obsession of people in general, and even those around me, was destroying my soul.
    I now live on the beach, semi retired, with better and accessible cultural opportunities, and the ability to visit the big smoke whenever I want.
    Don’t judge others choices- you do not know their story.

  4. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2018/nov/28/coalition-labor-morrison-dutton-shorten-australian-politics-live

    Funny scene in the House right now – it has divided on the social services amendment bill, which will make new migrants have to wait even longer for access to Newstart and the like and the whole chamber, but five crossbenchers is voting for it.

    Ayes 97

    Noes 5

    That is not a vote result you see everyday in this place.

    Labor did a deal with the government to ensure the legislation would get through.

    Shame Lib-Lab SHAME !

  5. Boerwar re the various forms of cock-up

    There are of course several others at the more extreme (i.e. out) end of the spectrum, viz:
    – hit the ball twice (where a scare campaign is launched, forgotten, then launched again without alteration)
    – handled the ball (can one say “coal”!)
    – obstruction (Pyne attempts to flee the chamber, but is decked by Abbott, leaving him unconscious on the parliamentary floor, with his vote determined geometrically)
    – timed out (where by the time a stunt has reached its punch-line, the media have left)
    – and of course, hit wicket: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aSzlxYX7_AE (George Christensen attempting, once again, to take his seat)

    We wait with bated breath

  6. Ahh Sydney. Working more hours a week with longer commutes to have less disposable income in crappier weather while getting further and further behind economically.

    Yeah its much better than Adelaide.

  7. I think Foley might have had some difficulties explaining his decision not to proceed to Mrs Foley.
    “Mr Foley had been expected to release a statement confirming this last week, but the statement has been delayed, a senior source said.”

  8. Unfortunately, the Guardian journalists have never been paragons of lucidity. Could Bludgers be helpful in interpreting from the Guardian report on this House vote whether the Greens voted Aye?

  9. “Under the Tehan test — a more accurate name for it — researchers are no longer subject only to the scrutiny and judgement of their peers but also to that of politicians,” he said.

    So the intro to proposed research has to be in such simple English that even Tehan can understand it.
    It’s going to be hard to write slowly enough and cut out all words of more than three syllables.

  10. rob harris
    ‏Verified account @rharris334
    4m4 minutes ago

    Shadow Treasurer Michael O’Brien and Shadow Attorney-General John Pesutto are the leading candidates to take over from Matthew Guy as Victorian Liberal leader, who resigned this morning.

  11. Torchbearer @ #1905 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 11:24 am

    It is interesting, in a very progressive, open minded forum some people choose to be vicious, elitist and sneering at those of us who choose to live outside Sydney and Melbourne.
    We don’t all have the education, opportunity, wealth, confidence or character to live in a big city.
    I moved to Adelaide from Sydney last year despite a great career and home because I found the congestion, snobbery, property and wealth obsession of people in general, and even those around me, was destroying my soul.
    I now live on the beach, semi retired, with better and accessible cultural opportunities, and the ability to visit the big smoke whenever I want.
    Don’t judge others choices- you do not know their story.

    Welcome to Adelaide.
    I am sure you will have a great semi-retirement in our little piece of paradise.
    If I did not have fibromyalgia, which cuts down on my activity level, I would be out every other day doing stuff. I really enjoy the Arts, when I can afford it. I did really like The Impressionists paintings display from France, at the SA Art Gallery a few weeks ago. But there is a lot of stuff I can do cheaply or free when I am not in pain.

    I do not think I could stand the traffic congestion in Sydney or Melbourne. The humidity of the tropics is good for a visit but not for living in, for me.

    Perth had an Adelaide feel about it when I visited this year.

    It is hard to describe the feel of Adelaide. Very modern, very historical, very natural, a big focus on tertiary education, lots of cultural events, a mixed migrant and British history, reminders of Aboriginal heritage everywhere, a superb food and wine sector, very relaxed but with technological advances being developed and/or tested here. It was the birthplace of rock and roll in Australia and had the most desired Rave parties in the country. A beautiful nudist beach,

    All with an undercurrent of darkness, from the well-known high impact serial murders.

    My son tells me that Adelaide women are regarded as the most beautiful in Australia. That, of course, is a subjective opinion. 🙂 I have no equivalent qualitative data on the males.

  12. Josh Butler
    ‏Verified account @JoshButler
    10s10 seconds ago

    Hearing rumours that parliament has been cancelled today as politicians hold bipartisan crisis talks on what to do about the big cow and further potential big cow-related issues

  13. People used to sneer at Victoria in the early 90s. we were a rust bucket state. All the people were leaving for QLD or W.A.

    We copped it on the chin and laughed along. Like men. We didn’t call people from other states xenophobic for their mockery. How absurd.

    Just 2 days ago Briefly called me an ‘it’ and said that ‘it deserves resentment’. I’m just paying you back with a bit of well laid parochial bait. And you fell for it hook line and sinker.

  14. Andrew Leigh

    Another sign that the Morrison Govt has given up governing. Today’s speaking list has 31 Labor/crossbench speakers, but just 2 Coalition speakers. #auspol – at Chamber

  15. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2018/nov/28/coalition-labor-morrison-dutton-shorten-australian-politics-live

    The Greens are once again trying to get a code of conduct into the Senate. Richard Di Natale is giving notice of this motion:

    I give notice that on the next day of sitting I shall move that—

    (1) That the Senate adopts the following Code of Conduct, to be introduced into the Standing Orders –

    The (House of Representatives and the) Senate have reached agreement on a Code of Conduct which is to apply to all members of Parliament.

    Members of Parliament recognise that they are in a unique position of responsibility in influencing the nature of civic conduct in Australia.

    Members of Parliament recognise that their words and actions in the Senate (and the House of Representatives) influence issues in the public debate. These Include issues relating to multicultural affairs, migration and citizenship, gender equality and professional conduct in the workplace.

    Members of Parliament acknowledge that parliamentary privilege protects the right of members to participate freely in debate in the Parliament without fear of prosecution.

    Members of Parliament recognise the need to exercise their valuable right of freedom of speech in a responsible manner and a failure to do so may have serious implications for individuals and groups of the Australian community and may diminish the social cohesion that is essential to our national character.

    THE CODE

    1. Uphold the honour of Public Office

    a. Members of Parliament will take all reasonable steps to represent public office in a manner that is consistent with the values of respect and inclusion.

    b. This includes behaviour and language during parliamentary proceedings, including interactions with parliamentary and electorate officer staff.

    2. First Peoples of Australia, the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples

    a. Members of Parliament recognise the value and contribution of the First Peoples of Australia, the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples.

    b. Members of Parliament recognise that with the exception of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples, Australia is a nation of migrants.

    3. Respect Australians’ diversity

    a. Members of Parliament recognise that Australia has been enriched by the

    diversity of colour, ethnic origin, culture and religious belief that exists within our nation.

    b. Members of Parliament recognise that principles including respect for religious and cultural diversity, tolerance, and justice should be upheld in parliamentary debate in a respectful manner.

    4. Respect gender equality and diversity

    a. Members of Parliament recognise that women and LGBT+ individuals are more likely to experience gender inequality and discrimination in the workplace.

    b. Members of Parliament recognise that the Australian Parliament, including the Senate and House of Representatives Chamber, is the primary workplace for elected representatives.

    c. Female and elected representatives from LGBT+ communities should be free from gender and sexuality based bullying, harassment or abuse of any kind in their workplace.

    5. Reject discriminatory or exclusionary statements

    a. Members of Parliament will not knowingly humiliate or degrade an individual or community based on their colour, national or ethnic origin, culture, religious belief, gender or sexual orientation.

    b. This includes acts which are intended to incite hatred or create fear of a community.

    (2) That this resolution be communicated to the House of Representatives for concurrence.

  16. The Guardian:

    The Greens are once again trying to get a code of conduct into the Senate. Richard Di Natale is giving notice of this motion: …..

  17. Ahhh the Green fanboys come into talk about Code of Conduct, when they themselves do the Liberal and Labor bashing.

    It was also the Liberal Party to degrade the politics after Tony Abbott was Liberal Leader and wreaking the current laws (including laws put in place by the Labor Party).

    You know – the race hate laws.

  18. Stephen Mayne
    @MayneReport
    14h14 hours ago

    Drunken Barnaby was literally allowed to rant uninterrupted for 2 minutes and 45 seconds by Paul Murray on Sky tonight. And he was calling the Greens “nut cases”.

    Nut cases because they object to the language in the Senate? Or just because Barnaby’s a fool who loves coal (and Gina)?

  19. I think the way to handle the Senate & House nasties is to apply a system similar to demerit points for car drivers – lose an hour or half a day for the first offence (depending on severity) then more points for the next offence if within a specified period of the first and so on.
    O’Sullivan would then spend most of his (voting) time out of the chamber.

  20. lizzie @ #1912 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 11:13 am

    “Under the Tehan test — a more accurate name for it — researchers are no longer subject only to the scrutiny and judgement of their peers but also to that of politicians,” he said.

    So the intro to proposed research has to be in such simple English that even Tehan can understand it.
    It’s going to be hard to write slowly enough and cut out all words of more than three syllables.

    Research sustains science. Science sustains engineering. Engineering sustains us. #ScienceMatters

  21. zoidlord

    hey Rex, you did note that only 5 cross benchers voted against it.

    Does this mean Greens voted with Labor-Liberal ?

    As if. Your blinkered tunnel vision is so apparent re Greens.

    You don’t seem to understand Greens Adam Bandt is a cross-bencher in the HoR.

    Re this bill it is indeed same-same, Lib-Lab.

  22. Hey Peg. Adam Bandt is irreverent.

    Adam Bandt is member for the Greens Party, not an independent.

    Perhaps William should enact a “Code of Conduct” to stop the Greens bashing of Labor-Liberal. ?

  23. Former GOP presidential candidate Rick Sanatorium on CNN denying the science of GW.

    Missisipi re-run Senate election early results:

    GOP Espy: 50.8%; Dem. Hyde-Smith: 49.2%. If, as is likely, the GOP get up, the Senate will be 53-47 to them.

    In the House, confirmed Dem. seats 234; GOP, 200.

  24. 12 SOCIAL SERVICES LEGISLATION AMENDMENT (ENCOURAGING SELF-SUFFICIENCY FOR NEWLY ARRIVED MIGRANTS) BILL 2018

    The order of the day having been read for the resumption of the debate on the question—That the bill be now read a second time—

    Debate resumed.

    Ms Burney, 10:48:41 AM. Dr Freelander, 10:58:00 AM. Mr Hart, 11:05:32 AM. Mr Bandt, 11:13:07 AM. Mr Fletcher, 11:28:16 AM.
    – 11:35:32 AM
    Question—put.

    – 11:35:42 AM
    Division 428 (This division is yet to be finalised and details are subject to change.)

    The House divided (the Deputy Speaker, Mr K. J. Andrews, in the Chair)—

    AYES, 96

    Mr Alexander

    Mr Entsch

    Ms Lamb

    Mrs Prentice

    Dr Aly

    Mr Evans

    Mr Laming

    Ms Price

    Mrs K. L. Andrews

    Mr Falinski

    Ms M. L. Landry

    Mr Pyne

    Ms Banks

    Mr Fletcher

    Mr C. A. S. Laundy

    Mr Ramsey*

    Ms Bird

    Ms Flint

    Mr Leeser

    Mr Robert

    Mr Bowen

    Dr Freelander

    Dr Leigh

    Ms Ryan*

    Mr Broad

    Mr Frydenberg

    Ms Ley

    Ms Stanley

    Mr Broadbent

    Mr Gee

    Mr Littleproud

    Mr Swan

    Mr Buchholz

    Mr Georganas

    Mr McCormack

    Ms Swanson

    Ms Burney

    Mr Giles

    Dr McVeigh

    Mr Taylor

    Mr Champion

    Dr Gillespie

    Mrs Marino

    Mr Tehan

    Mr D. J. Chester

    Mr Goodenough

    Mr B. K. Mitchell

    Ms Templeman

    Ms L. M. Chesters

    Mr Hart

    Mr R. G. Mitchell

    Mr Tudge

    Mr Christensen

    Mr Hartsuyker

    Mr Morrison

    Ms Vamvakinou

    Mr Ciobo

    Mr Hastie

    Mr Morton

    Mr van Manen

    Mr Clare

    Mr Hawke

    Mr Neumann

    Mr Vasta

    Ms Claydon

    Ms Henderson

    Mr Ted O’Brien

    Mr Wallace

    Mr Coleman

    Mr Hill

    Mr L. S. O’Brien

    Mr Watts

    Mr Crewther

    Mr Hunt

    Mr O’Dowd

    Mrs Wicks

    Mr Danby

    Ms Husar

    Ms O’Dwyer

    Mr R. J. Wilson

    Mr Dick

    Mr Irons

    Ms O’Toole

    Mr T. R. Wilson

    Mr Drum*

    Ms Keay

    Mr Pasin

    Mr Wood

    Mrs Elliot

    Mr Keenan

    Mr Pitt

    Mr Wyatt

    Ms Ellis

    Mr C. Kelly

    Mr Porter

    Mr Zimmerman

    NOES, 5

    Mr Bandt*

    Dr Phelps

    Ms Sharkie

    Mr Wilkie

    Ms McGowan*

    * Tellers

    And so it was resolved in the affirmative.

    – 11:50:39 AM
    —bill read a second time.

  25. Stephen Koukoulas
    ‏Verified account @TheKouk
    45s45 seconds ago

    BANG!
    Did you hear that?
    That was the sound of the economy hitting the wall #RBAfail
    0 replies 1 retweet 1 like

  26. On the voting for Social Security tightening for migrants – 97-5

    No – Bandt, Phelps, McGowan, Sharkie, Wilkie

    Banks votes with majority

    Katter was wandering the grounds, muttering

  27. Good morning all,

    The liberals really need to go back to school and re do politics 101.

    If Pyne had stayed away from making threats to the cross bench the whole Dutton issue would have been shaped as labor v liberal with both as bad as each other and simply playing politics.

    Now, labor is in the background just floating along with the flow while all the noise is about the government bullying the cross bench and the cross bench fighting back with ” We will not be intimidated !”

    Government v Cross bench and there can only be one winner in the perception stakes. Meanwhile labor sits back and acts like the adult in the room.

    Cheers

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