Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

After a Victorian election result decided entirely on state issues, a poll shows the Coalition doing every bit as badly at federal level.

A weekend to forget for the Coalition has been compounded by Newspoll’s finding that its federal operation is down yet another point, putting Labor’s lead at 55-45. Its primary vote is down a point to 34%, the equal lowest since the 2016 election, while Labor is steady on 40%, the Greens are unchanged on 9% and One Nation are up two to 6%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is down slightly, from 43-35 to 42-36. Nonetheless, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have improved since a fortnight ago, with approval up four to 43% and disapproval down five to 42%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 37% and steady on 50%. The poll will have been conducted Thursday to Sunday and the sample around 1700, although it’s not specified in the online report.

UPDATE: The sample size was 1717.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,597 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

Comments Page 38 of 52
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  1. Part of Di Natale’s statement in the Senate this morning:

    “They are the cowards here. It’s very clear that, despite your words this morning, Mr President, they take no heed of the call on all of us to improve the standards in this place.

    The men who use sexism to belittle or intimidate women should not be tolerated in any society and they most certainly should not be tolerated in the Australian Senate.

    Mr President, we accept your recommendation in terms of the way we will handle the discovery of formal business, but we need to do more than that. We need to ensure that there are strong rules and a strong code of conduct that does not allow this offensive behaviour to continue.”

  3. As Al Gore said in his film , the warming oceans would cause an approaching storm to take up much more water when approaching land. Then dump it on the land like an upturned bucket.

  4. Barry O Sullivan is succeeding in making Senator Di Natale look good on sexism.

    This despite the Greens party structure flaws.

    Of course I am on the side of Senator Di Natale on this one and I hope good action in the Senate results.

  5. ar,
    Yes, bizarrely true that winning one more district out of 435 by a couple hundred votes will reverberate in the MSM far more than the Democratic Party’s national vote margin and percentage of victory. They are both the party’s highest since the 1974 Watergate midterm election.

  7. ”
    Acerbic Conehead says:
    Wednesday, November 28, 2018 at 10:30 am
    Former PM John Howard:
    “…Victoria has had a history for quite some years now, some decades, in fact, of being slightly more to the centre-left – the Massachusetts of Australia, some people call it.”

    Johnny is probably referring to the Liberals last Saturday experiencing a Massachusetts Moment, when their lights went out.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDY6nf2qxjo
    ”
    It appears that John Howard has forgotten that Victoria is the birth place of Liberal party.

  9. Rossmcg says:
    Wednesday, November 28, 2018 at 10:27 am
    briefly

    Was once told by somebody who knew these things that at the time the Mandurah Ford dealer was the biggest seller of imported F-trucks in the country.

    Mandurah is of course the main centre on Hastie’s electorate of Canning and also home I believe to a few ON supporters. There would be a few red necks down that way

    That may well be, Ross. Just the same, I refuse to be sneered at by some supercilious idiot who thinks they’re so much better than the rest of us and gets a kick from stereotyping those of us from the West. Australia is a big country. It extends well beyond the borders of Victoria.

  10. @ellinghousen tweets

    “a statement of women’s empowerment which is what I believe the red shoe emoji is intended to be”

    – Julie Bishop donates the red heels she wore when she resigned as Foreign Affairs Minister to @MoAD_Canberra this morning, via @srpeatling

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-comfortable-work-boot-julie-bishop-on-her-resignation-red-shoes-20181127-p50iks.html https://twitter.com/ellinghausen/status/1067542148604514304/photo/1


  12. Prof. Higgins @ #1855 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 9:43 am

    ar,
    Yes, bizarrely true that winning one more district out of 435 by a couple hundred votes will reverberate in the MSM far more than the Democratic Party’s national vote margin and percentage of victory. They are both the party’s highest since the 1974 Watergate midterm election.

    Must be the same quirk of the human mind that sees something that costs $19.95 being closer to costing $10 than to $20.

  13. Michael A @ #1671 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 7:32 am

    Former PM John Howard:
    “…Victoria has had a history for quite some years now, some decades, in fact, of being slightly more to the centre-left – the Massachusetts of Australia, some people call it.”

    An Australian former PM, talking on an Australian program, to an Australian audience, uses an American state as an analogy to explain the politics of an Australian state.

    Hmmmm….

    If anything illustrates the capture of the Australian conservative mindset by the USA, this is it.

    What is a Massachusetts, when it is at home?

  14. If the Govt. were to lose a vote of no confidence in the very near future (say after Dutton is referred to the HC) then they would be in caretaker mode and not be in a position to bring down their gee-whizz new shiny world’s best budget in Feb. next year. Is that correct?

  18. Bishop presser not helping Morrison 😆

    Bishop not aware of any more women leaving the Liberal party.

    Not aware of what happened in the Senate away from Canberra so not making a comment other than every Senator needs to uphold decent standards

    Edit: Also not aware of Pyne comments on s44

  19. “Prof. Higgins says:
    Wednesday, November 28, 2018 at 10:43 am
    They are both the party’s highest since the 1974 Watergate midterm election.
    ‘
    Prof, that is the thing. Without the constitutional crisis that Americans had during Watergate, it is still the second highest.
    However, what is happening now is much more damaging to US than that constitutional crisis because if Trump wins in 2020 US is finished as a democracy. That is reason I was very disappointed that Democrats lost Senate elections in Florida, Indiana, Missouri & North Dakota because all those senators were 10 times superior than the ones who are elected & they owe to Trump.

  20. ABC News
    ‏Verified account @abcnews
    1h1 hour ago

    457 visas ‘fudged’ in alleged multi-million-dollar tax fraud scheme
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-28/457-visa-documents-fudged-in-alleged-tax-fraud-rort/10559908

    Geoff Pearson
    ‏ @GCobber99
    22h22 hours ago

    WOW this will cause the shit to hit the fan for Morrison and his thugs. Julia Banks said she saw people trade their vote for advancement, during the leadership spill. preselection endorsements or silence. Their actions were undeniably for themselves. Not the australian people

    Kon Karapanagiotidis
    ‏Verified account @Kon__K
    10h10 hours ago

    Kon Karapanagiotidis Retweeted Richard Di Natale

    Pigs are civilised, intelligent and lovable so the comparison wasn’t on point but standing up and calling out sexism and misogyny in Parliament today was brilliant. This is what more men need to do, thank you Richard. #auspol

  21. Briefly

    Fair call.
    I like it when somebody says they came to WA once, hated it and left. Good riddance .
    A lot of people from other states came and stayed and have made better lives for themselves and their children thanks to the many opportunities offered here.

  23. The Government is not going to lose a vote of no confidence. The cross-benchers in conservative seats (which is everyone but Brandt and Wilkie and maybe Banks) will get murdered by their electorates.

    However making government unworkable on matters of high principle (like referring Dutton and supporting an NIC) is something they can do, forcing Morrison to jump before even more disaster befalls the party.

  25. ”
    Greensborough Growler says:
    Wednesday, November 28, 2018 at 10:48 am
    Was it really dangerous to be out in Sydney’s weather this morning?

    https://twitter.com/gourdnibler/status/1040678572262916096
    ”
    Yes it is in Sydney CBD, Northshore, InnerCity & to an extent eastern suburbs. People in cars have to be rescued in Marrickville (Innercity), Pymble (Northshore) because roads were flooded.
    Western & South Western suburbs are faring better

  26. ”
    Greensborough Growler says:
    Wednesday, November 28, 2018 at 10:58 am
    Meanwhile in Sydney this morning….
    ”
    Surely that must have photoshopped. 🙂

  28. Rossmcg says:
    Wednesday, November 28, 2018 at 10:56 am
    Briefly

    Fair call.
    I like it when somebody says they came to WA once, hated it and left. Good riddance .
    A lot of people from other states came and stayed and have made better lives for themselves and their children thanks to the many opportunities offered here.

    We face the same kind of challenges as everyone else. Really, we need to build solidarity and encourage each other. The sneer is practically calculated to achieve the opposite ends.

    In its own way, the sneer is xenophobic too. I’m having none of it.

  29. @markgkenny tweets

    Staggering.Yesterday we learned the gov’s approach was actually “personal” instead of being about voters as promised. Today its lofty claim to be “just getting on with the job of governing” has been, ahem, clarified.”Governing” turns out to be what… campaigning? #canberrabubble https://twitter.com/tony_burke/status/1067563875120214016

    @TonyBurke tweets

    Next year the parliament will sit for only ten days in the first eight months of the year. We’ve now had it confirmed from House of Reps there has never been an eight month period with only ten sitting days. That’s never, they’ve checked back to 1901. #auspol

  30. Rossmcg @ #1870 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 6:56 am

    Briefly

    Fair call.
    I like it when somebody says they came to WA once, hated it and left. Good riddance .
    A lot of people from other states came and stayed and have made better lives for themselves and their children thanks to the many opportunities offered here.

    I can’t think of any place I’ve visited that I hated!

    To me it’s a sign of a closed inflexible outlook. 🙂

  31. Rocket Rocket @ #1721 Wednesday, November 28th, 2018 – 7:56 am

    BK

    SA – I’m going with Michigan

    Lots of German and European heritage in the Great Lakes States, car industry shutting down, but not a lot of wine I’d imagine!

    I did a job once in Upper Michigan. I found it was mostly empty with survival hutches nailed to trees 5-10m off the ground. (It snows a lot.) I needed some safety gear, namely a bright orange cap strongly suggested to me so I wouldn’t accidentally get shot. I found it at a store with the memorable name of “Beer and Bullets”.

    That kind of place.

  32. ‘Federal Education Minister Dan Tehan yesterday announced new details of his planned national interest test, saying it would require researchers to explain the benefits of their projects in “plain English”.

    He said that using plain English to explain the value of research would help researchers sharpen their focus and remind them “they are working on behalf of every Australian”.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/higher-education/grants-delays-a-formula-for-scientific-indignation/news-story/49f0c7a494bd9ade88f847308e90b71d

  33. Peter Broelman
    ‏ @Broelman
    3h3 hours ago

    BREAKING: @ScottMorrisonMP criticises school kids for planning a strike. Next minute his government declares parliament to sit for 10 days in 8 months. #auspol
    14 replies 188 retweets 371 likes

  34. Nine News Australia
    ‏Verified account @9NewsAUS
    11h11 hours ago

    Greens leader Richard Di Natale has been suspended from the Senate after a dramatic blow up. #9News

  36. I am quite happy for people to diss SA and Adelaide. It is a way of making sure people lie that don’t come here. I have lived in QLD, VIC and rural NSW before coming to SA. The only other place I would consider living is in Tassie, because of AGW.
    I like being 30 minures to a beach, where I can find easy parking. I live being 30 minutes from the beautiful Adelaide Hills with nice little towns, wineries, cherry farms and bushwalks.
    Then there is the Filnders Ranges for the world’s best example of the Cambrian Period. Coastal towns, fishing, the Cooring, easy drive to Victoria for a change of scenery etc etc.

  38. Puffy
    Lived in Adelaide for a few years in the 80s. Got a son as a permanent reminder.
    Would have happily gone back in the 90s when work went a bit pear shaped and there might have been opportunities there again.
    Visited a few times in recent years.
    Never understood why people sneer at it. Insecure themselves maybe?

  41. Mean while in SA:

    SA Labor
    ‏Verified account @alpsa
    14m14 minutes ago

    SA Liberals stopping #saparli from debating important legislation to stop pedophiles from allowing to serve sentences on home detention.

    What could be more important considering Vivian Deboo is before the courts today seeking to severe his sentence on home detention in Pasadena,

  43. Confessions says:
    Wednesday, November 28, 2018 at 10:07 am
    Michael A:

    The rumours yesterday were that she’d run in Deakin. But I reckon Lao makes a good case for Kooyong being a better electorate.
    —————————————

    As a Labor voter, I’d love Banks to contest Kooyong: bump off a Liberal Treasurer, Deakin a more likely Labor gain, Sukkar worth votes & $$$ for Labor the more people who hear him.

    I also think Kooyong is a more progressive seat than Deakin: higher SSM vote (74-66); fewer over-55’s (27.7-28.8); more “no religion” (36.6-35.7); more female (52.3-51.8). Phelps in Wentworth shows how an affluent but socially progressive seat will embrace an Independent but not Labor.

  44. steve davis says:

    Morrison will be crying his eyes out today as Trump has snubbed him and probably wont meet with him before the next election.

    Nah, he will still be on a high from meeting fellow evangelical ‘bring on Armageddon” happy clapper VP Mike Pence.

  45. Ven,
    I concur with your disquiet about the Republican Party’s gains in the Senate because those ratbags will be there throughout the upcoming Democratic Party President’s first term.

    Same here, because Australia’s Constitution writers copycatted the USA, Pauline Hanson and her ilk are “unrepresentative swill” who will be there to obstruct the Shorten Labor government’s progressive policies.

    At least there’s only one Australian state with a very small population compared with about ten American micros. Soon, 70% of US Senators will represent a mere 30% of the nation’s voters. Moreover, Washington D. C. /Puerto Rico have no Senate representation while the A.C.T./Northern Territory went unrepresented until the Whitlam government’s initiative in 1975.

  48. I wonder how the privileged white males in the Liberal Party feel about Jewellery saying that they are, basically, a bunch of dickheads. It’s not a good look when you’re only “performer” in your party basically says she is surrounded by duds and misogynists. As I’ve said, this is punch-up in the cockpit time for the libs.

  50. Still haven’t given up the scare campaign:

    Guardian Australia
    ‏Verified account @GuardianAus
    8s8 seconds ago

    Liberals ask voters if they ‘feel safe at home’ in marginal seat crime scare
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/28/liberals-ask-voters-if-they-feel-safe-at-home-in-marginal-seat-scare?CMP=soc_568

    Another Climate Change act?

    The Age
    ‏Verified account @theage
    45s46 seconds ago

    The 28 whales that have been washed up on a Victorian beach are sadly unlikely to survive
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/28-whales-washed-up-on-victorian-beach-unlikely-to-survive-20181128-p50isi.html?platform=hootsuite

    Mark Doman
    ‏Verified account @MarkDoman
    13m13 minutes ago

    The massive scale of the Deepwater fire in Queensland captured by the Sentinel 2 satellite earlier in the week. It’s a false-colour image highlighting the active fire front in bright orange/red

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