Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

After a Victorian election result decided entirely on state issues, a poll shows the Coalition doing every bit as badly at federal level.

A weekend to forget for the Coalition has been compounded by Newspoll’s finding that its federal operation is down yet another point, putting Labor’s lead at 55-45. Its primary vote is down a point to 34%, the equal lowest since the 2016 election, while Labor is steady on 40%, the Greens are unchanged on 9% and One Nation are up two to 6%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is down slightly, from 43-35 to 42-36. Nonetheless, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have improved since a fortnight ago, with approval up four to 43% and disapproval down five to 42%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 37% and steady on 50%. The poll will have been conducted Thursday to Sunday and the sample around 1700, although it’s not specified in the online report.

UPDATE: The sample size was 1717.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,597 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. I have long suspected that Asha and “nath” are in cahoots together and this post this afternoon just confirms that. It is nothing more than anti-Bill Shorten nonsense, designed to delegitimise the LOTO. C@t is dead right. It is straight out of the Murdoch Labor Bad playlist and not to be tolerated.

  2. Asha, you may frame your anti-Bill Shorten rhetoric as a ‘joke’ but it is a nefarious one. It doesn’t fool me as to your true intentions which is to position Bill Shorten as an inappropriate LOTO and further your own agendas.

  3. Oh, shit, Michael’s on to us, Nath!

    Meet me at Menzies House in half an hour so we can discuss damage control. Bring Wayne along with you, we will need all the intellectual force we can muster.

  4. Maybe the Liberal Party will split into two groupings: a Liberal-conservative party, based in the business community, plus a religious right wing party. The two groups would maybe gain respectively about 30-35% and 5-10% of the vote. The religious right could sweep up the remains of Family First and similar groupings (Bernardi, the Fred Nile people). Maybe extremists like Catch the Fire would come on board. Another possibility would be for the religious right could join with with the Nationals, which would help ensure parliamentary representation. There are all sorts of possibilities.

  5. Well, they say karma’s a bitch, and I just got served a big dose of it, for, I guess, being a bitch. I almost sliced the top of my thumb off just now as I was preparing the vegetables for dinner! Blood everywhere! For a long time! 😯

  6. With Molan dumped to ‘don’t accept any government jobs in case Braggy and the token female fall foul of s44’ (again) on the Senate ticket and Kelly being hunted despite Morrison asking for him to be spared it’s nice to know that Liberal Party internecine warfare isn’t going to be going away any time soon in NSW.

    The fight back from club loon should be fun.

  7. Ratsak

    Ive been waiting for months for the NSW Lib branch to really get feral!

    I note Nikki Savva though said preselection in Hughes was pushed back to February.

  8. Asha you have made repeated critical comments against Bill Shorten. Sometimes in connection with the horrible “nath”. Are you the same person? Your Labor bad agenda is reminiscent of a ‘concern troll’, who raises a slight problem or ‘concern’ about the ALP as a means to undermine the upcoming election campaign.

  9. Michael

    This is a political blog not an LNP one. You should just laugh at the feeble effort if what you say is true. Or do you think Labor loyalty is that weak?

  10. The religious right already have irrelevant micro parties.

    The whole point of colonising the Libs is to not be irrelevant.

    The Liberals are not a mass party and are so susceptible to a fringe take over. The more control the fringe gets the less likely that moderates will bother joining.

  11. Michael at 4.04

    It’s a bit like British humour v US humour. You have to be on the right wavelength to get it. I have a particularly dry sense of humour that has gotten me into trouble many times when people actually took me seriously, so it was clear to me that it was a subtle (perhaps too subtle) joke about bashing Shorten. Even though I responded seriously with my thoughts on landslides, that was because I had been thinking about that issue since Saturday night and this was an opportunity to say it.

    For the record, my experience of Asha is that he is a serious poster, and not someone who does the same old same old.

  12. The irony, of course, is that by any objective measure, I’m actually a total partisan when it comes to the Labor Party and Bill Shorten, something that becomes abundantly clear whenever I talk to pretty much any friend or acquaintance about politics. It says something about just how far-gone some here are in blind, tribal loyalty that theyan – in all seriousness – accuse me of being a Liberal agitator, when the bulk of my posts here involve either mocking the present Coalition leader, defending Shorten’s leadership qualities, and salivating over big TPP leads for the Labor party (and, I admit, boring everyone to death with pointless arguments about whether someone is a troll or not)

    Michael, if you have time to waste (and it seems like you do), have a scroll through the Poll Bludger threads from when Malcolm Turnbull was enjoying his enormous honeymoon over Bill Shorten, and tell me what my agenda was then.

  13. Laocoon @ #490 Monday, November 26th, 2018 – 3:53 pm

    My facebook feed today !!

    Advance Australia

    Our country has been slowly drifting further and further away from our mainstream values and freedoms. This has occurred not because of any single momentous event, but rather through a series of incremental changes pushed through by the left-wing activists without your permission or say so.

    etcetera etcetera etcetera….

    They never specifically articulate what those changes they don’t like are but just engage in a culture of complaint about them. As we know that, if they did articulate them people would immediately be up in arms about them. Instead they do that thing where they leave it up to each individual who reads it to ‘insert here’ their own particular grievance.

  14. C@tmomma @ #505 Monday, November 26th, 2018 – 4:15 pm

    Well, they say karma’s a bitch, and I just got served a big dose of it, for, I guess, being a bitch. I almost sliced the top of my thumb off just now as I was preparing the vegetables for dinner! Blood everywhere! For a long time! 😯

    I, overcome with excitement, making tomato sandwiches, prior to my first wedding, sliced my finger and then being a brave (translates as stupid) Aussie boy continued with the sandwiches. There were no complaints so I can only assume that fresh bread and butter combined with fresh tomato and type O blood made into sandwiches are as tasty as one could wish.

    At the time we had not heard of HIV. I’ve learned a lot since then.

    Be good to yourself, if possible delegate. 😇

    Off to consult with my GP – so it’s goodnight from him.

  15. What Latham wasn’t even smart enough to get a confidential settlement against a self promoter like Bornstein?

    I wonder if the monies have been paid out of his crowd funding support.

  16. Patricia Karvelas uses smart to describe Bill Shorten on News 24 meaning politically smart on handling the politics of the Victorian result by not gloating and that he is not cocky. So Morrison can’t convince the Gallery

  17. TPOF, yes perhaps you are right and I overreacted. I have just noticed that Asha frequently defends the vile “nath” and assumed he was using the same bash Shorten playbook.

  18. KayJay,
    Thanks. 🙂
    The blood poured down the sink, for the most part. Cooking dinner one-handed was fun though!

    Fun Fact: My Bear Gryllsesque son has been singing the praises of Gum Sap lately. Thus, so desperate was I to staunch the bleeding that seemed as though it would never stop, I called on him to sally forth with the gum sap! It was liberally applied to said thumb, after I had soaked up the blood as best I could with a paper towel (paper towel is now red not white), and band aids were hurriedly applied.

    The blood hasn’t even soaked through the band aids! Full stop. No more bleeding! 😯

  19. Michael:

    Asha you have made repeated critical comments against Bill Shorten. Sometimes in connection with the horrible “nath”. Are you the same person? Your Labor bad agenda is reminiscent of a ‘concern troll’, who raises a slight problem or ‘concern’ about the ALP as a means to undermine the upcoming election campaign.

    What the actual fuck are you on about?

    Go on, post these repeated critical criticisms of Bill Shorten. I’m very curious to see them.

    Off the top of my head, I have been critical in the past of the federal opposition’s approach to senate reform, Adani, and the TPP, and Shorten’s name may well have been mentioned in such criticisms. I have mentioned on a fair few occasions that Shorten isn’t very popular, usually as part of a broader point about why I think he’d doing a good job is opposition leader. Once or twice, I have suggested that replacing Shorten as opposition leader wouldn’t cause the sort of negative reaction from the public that the revolving door of PMs have, and that the idea shouldn’t be totally discounted if it looks like the Coalition have a genuine shot of winning the next election – while also adding that it would be a terrible idea while Labor are on track to victory.

    These very meek little criticisms are absolutely dwarfed by all the times I’ve spoken in support of Shorten, on how I think he’s doing an excellent job as opposition leader and would be an excellent PM, how I actually don’t get why he’s unpopular and think he’s a skilled communicator (certainly better than Albo), how pleasantly surprised I’ve been by the direction he’s taken the opposition in many policy areas.

  20. Asha Leu @ #517 Monday, November 26th, 2018 – 4:28 pm

    The irony, of course, is that by any objective measure, I’m actually a total partisan when it comes to the Labor Party and Bill Shorten …

    Don’t worry, Asha – it’s not just you. PB can be a very weird place at times. I regularly get accused of being a shill for the fossil-fuel industry here 🙁

    How anyone could make that particular mistake still perplexes me. I think some people just scan posts quickly, don’t really “get” it, but fire back in anger when they see particular “trigger” words.

    Social media is like that sometimes 🙁

  21. Gives you such a warm feeling. Did you know Molan actually has supporters???

    Senator Jim Molan

    @JimMolan
    Thank you to the thousands of my supporters who have reached out this morning. I am currently in Intel&Security Ctte talking about the things that will make us safe. I will endeavour to reply to each and every one of you as soon as I can. Your kind words are overwhelming. #auspol

  22. Grim times for the Coalition when even Dennis Shanana is against you.

    Bereft Coalition in state of panic
    DENNIS SHANAHAN
    Bill Shorten is reacting to the Victorian Labor victory exactly as he should. Scott Morrison and his colleagues are reacting exactly as they shouldn’t.
    ………………Labor’s message is about delivery, policy offerings (sometimes risky) and a unified discipline. Once again Labor gets it and a strategically bereft Coalition misses another opportunity.
    https://outline.com/HhbNP3

  23. The irony, of course, is that by any objective measure, I’m actually a total partisan when it comes to the Labor Party and Bill Shorten, something that becomes abundantly clear whenever I talk to pretty much any friend or acquaintance about politics. It says something about just how far-gone some here are in blind, tribal loyalty that theyan – in all seriousness – accuse me of being a Liberal agitator, when the bulk of my posts here involve either mocking the present Coalition leader, defending Shorten’s leadership qualities, and salivating over big TPP leads for the Labor party (and, I admit, boring everyone to death with pointless arguments about whether someone is a troll or not)

    I pretty much associate exclusively with Labor people in the real world — electorate officers, current or former ministerial staffers, union workers and such like. So much so that one might plausibly accuse me of living in a Labor bubble. Yet none of these people are enthusiastic about Bill Shorten, and some are outright hostile. The kind of glazed-eyed, cultish devotion to the leader of heretic-burners like Michael (who is but one example of many) is something I only encounter online.

  24. Motion just moved by O’Sullivan and Bernardi (of all people) re allegations against he way the Greens deal with sexual assault allegations (defeated with govt, Labor and presumably the Greens) voting against it:

    “That the Senate –

    (a) notes that:

    (i) New South Wales (NSW) Greens MP, Ms Jenny Leong, used parliamentary privilege to call on fellow NSW Greens MP, Mr Jeremy Buckingham, to step down as a candidate at the NSW election due to an alleged ‘act of sexual violence’ and aggressive, intimidating behaviour,

    (ii) Mr Buckingham has been the subject of allegations that he inappropriately touched former staffer Ms Ella Buckland in 2011,

    (iii) former Greens staffer and journalist, Ms Lauren Ingram, alleges she was violently raped by a Greens party volunteer in 2015, which she says she reported to the Greens and heard nothing for months, so she tweeted pictures of her bruising from the incident, drawing a response from the Party in June 2017,

    (iv) former co-convenor of the NSW Young Greens in 2017, Ms Holly Brooke, says a male party member indecently assaulted her, trying to force his hand down her pants and alleges the Greens’ response was to suggest she teach a consent workshop to the perpetrator, a response she said was ‘more traumatic than the instance itself’,

    (v) it has also been alleged that former Victorian Greens party leader, Mr Greg Barber, had a ‘men’s-only room’ in his office, and settled out of court with a former female staffer about sex discrimination and bullying,

    (vi) Victorian Greens candidate, Mr Angus McAlpine, has refused to resign despite rapping about date-rape and domestic violence, and has been defended by Victorian Greens leader, Ms Samantha Ratnam,

    (vii) another Victorian Greens candidate, Mr Dominic Phillips, has liked one Facebook page called ‘Period Pains, Try waiting for your porn to download’ and another with a title so inappropriate it has been deemed unparliamentary,

    (viii) a former Greens volunteer alleges she was sexually assaulted by another volunteer in the back of a car in Canberra on the night of the last Federal election,

    (ix) Young Greens members wrote an open letter to their party in August demanding it reshape its culture around sexism within the party, with dozens resigning in disgust over handling of sexual misconduct allegations,

    (x) lawyer, Mr Rory Markham, says he is advising a number of women who say the Greens party mishandled their complaints of sexual assault and harassment arising in Victoria, New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory,

    (xi) the Greens have 10 federal members of parliament, federal party status, 27 state members of parliament, the attendant staffing resources, and have received at least $28.5 million in federal election-based public funding since 2001, and millions more in state and territory election-based public funding, and

    (xii) Greens Senators Di Natale, Siewert and Hanson-Young have all used the phrase “the standard you walk past is the standard you accept”;

    (b) calls upon Senators Di Natale, Siewert, Steele-John, Hanson-Young, Rice, Waters, Faruqi, Whish-Wilson and McKim to make statements to the Senate condemning predatory and criminal behaviour within the Greens party, and apologise to the victims; and

    (c) calls upon the Federal Government to write to all Greens Party branches providing details of support services, and advice as to the means to report inappropriate and potentially criminal behaviour.”

  25. To be honest I didn’t initially read Asha’s original post. I was just picking up what C@t said about it. So perhaps I should have read that first.

  26. Burgey @ #531 Monday, November 26th, 2018 – 4:53 pm

    Motion just moved by O’Sullivan and Bernardi (of all people) re allegations against he way the Greens deal with sexual assault allegations (defeated with govt, Labor and presumably the Greens) voting against it:

    “That the Senate –

    (a) notes that:

    (i) New South Wales (NSW) Greens MP, Ms Jenny Leong, used parliamentary privilege to call on fellow NSW Greens MP, Mr Jeremy Buckingham, to step down as a candidate at the NSW election due to an alleged ‘act of sexual violence’ and aggressive, intimidating behaviour,

    (ii) Mr Buckingham has been the subject of allegations that he inappropriately touched former staffer Ms Ella Buckland in 2011,

    (iii) former Greens staffer and journalist, Ms Lauren Ingram, alleges she was violently raped by a Greens party volunteer in 2015, which she says she reported to the Greens and heard nothing for months, so she tweeted pictures of her bruising from the incident, drawing a response from the Party in June 2017,

    (iv) former co-convenor of the NSW Young Greens in 2017, Ms Holly Brooke, says a male party member indecently assaulted her, trying to force his hand down her pants and alleges the Greens’ response was to suggest she teach a consent workshop to the perpetrator, a response she said was ‘more traumatic than the instance itself’,

    (v) it has also been alleged that former Victorian Greens party leader, Mr Greg Barber, had a ‘men’s-only room’ in his office, and settled out of court with a former female staffer about sex discrimination and bullying,

    (vi) Victorian Greens candidate, Mr Angus McAlpine, has refused to resign despite rapping about date-rape and domestic violence, and has been defended by Victorian Greens leader, Ms Samantha Ratnam,

    (vii) another Victorian Greens candidate, Mr Dominic Phillips, has liked one Facebook page called ‘Period Pains, Try waiting for your porn to download’ and another with a title so inappropriate it has been deemed unparliamentary,

    (viii) a former Greens volunteer alleges she was sexually assaulted by another volunteer in the back of a car in Canberra on the night of the last Federal election,

    (ix) Young Greens members wrote an open letter to their party in August demanding it reshape its culture around sexism within the party, with dozens resigning in disgust over handling of sexual misconduct allegations,

    (x) lawyer, Mr Rory Markham, says he is advising a number of women who say the Greens party mishandled their complaints of sexual assault and harassment arising in Victoria, New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory,

    (xi) the Greens have 10 federal members of parliament, federal party status, 27 state members of parliament, the attendant staffing resources, and have received at least $28.5 million in federal election-based public funding since 2001, and millions more in state and territory election-based public funding, and

    (xii) Greens Senators Di Natale, Siewert and Hanson-Young have all used the phrase “the standard you walk past is the standard you accept”;

    (b) calls upon Senators Di Natale, Siewert, Steele-John, Hanson-Young, Rice, Waters, Faruqi, Whish-Wilson and McKim to make statements to the Senate condemning predatory and criminal behaviour within the Greens party, and apologise to the victims; and

    (c) calls upon the Federal Government to write to all Greens Party branches providing details of support services, and advice as to the means to report inappropriate and potentially criminal behaviour.”

    O’Sullivan and Bernardi the new heroes of PB

  27. Rex,

    It’s probably more the point that if even nutbags like Bernardi and O’Sullivan can have a reasonably well founded shot at the way you’re dealing with something as serious as that, then you probably need to have a look at yourselves.

  28. WB: “I pretty much associate exclusively with Labor people in the real world — electorate officers, current or former ministerial staffers, union workers and such like. So much so that one might plausibly accuse me of living in a Labor bubble. Yet none of these people are enthusiastic about Bill Shorten, and some are outright hostile. The kind of glazed-eyed, cultish devotion to the leader of heretic-burners like Michael (who is but one example of many) is something I only encounter online.”

    I assume then , because you don’t have much contact with tories, William, Scomo is adored by Liberals. Personally speaking, I’m glad Shorten beat Albo in 2013, but admit Bill is not perfect.

  29. I’m pleased that Bill Shorten’s shortcomings are starting to be talked about on here. I could kiss you all. I think we’d all agree that the Kirribilli silverware needs an audit before the election!

  30. William

    Bill Shorten is not, on TV, particularly handsome, charming, sexy or appealing. Those who meet him usually have a different view as regards appeal.

    I remained fairly neutral, but his hard work as Opp Leader has convinced me to admire him for what he does. I assume that those who are actively hostile have heard something to his detriment and use that as the basis for their disdain.

    The Coalition constantly beats the “untrustworthy” drum. Pot and kettle, I think.

  31. Well, I associate with people who are not in a political bubble, Labor, Uni, PS, or otherwise associated with politics in any way, shape or form. They think Bill Shorten seems like a decent guy. Funny that about ordinary, everyday people. They have a different perspective on things and people political.

  32. lizzie
    says:
    Monday, November 26, 2018 at 5:09 pm
    I thought nath had gone away to create his own swamp. Damn.
    ___________________________
    Yes I did say I was going to create my own blog but I was stoned and drunk on Vodka on a 2 day bender getting back from Crown Casino and was out of sorts.

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