Live publication of results, updated by the minute with full booth results, swings and probability estimates, can be found here. Commentary of the progress of the count follows below.
12.50pm. John Pesutto now leads by 53 votes in Hawthorn, and I’m also now projected the Liberals to hold Caulfield. So without wishing to take anything away from the scale of Labor’s win, a big part of the election night story is that Liberal voters voted early. I’ve now got Sandringham back down as a confirmed Labor gain, but with no pre-polls or postals there yet, I certainly wouldn’t take that for granted. I will be off line for the next half an hour, and my results won’t be updating in that time.
12.18pm. Things continue to look less bad for the Liberals. My model now has the Liberals with their nose in front in Mount Waverley and Nepean, and is no longer giving away Sandringham, Bayswater and Hawthorn — though it’s still calling it for Labor in Ringwood, Caulfield and Box Hill. Over the past hour, the statewide Labor swing has come down from 3.7% to 3.2%.
11.35pm. The notion that some of the more freakish results would be overturned on late counting is looking good. The Liberals are now home in Brighton, after hardly any swing was recorded on pre-poll and postal votes. My seat projection has come down over the last few hours from 59 to 56 (which really means 60 to 57, because a bug is awarding Preston to the Liberals — though equally, it may be wrong about the Greens winning Prahran).
9.30pm. The Greens, as ever, are living on a knife edge — they could win four, they could win nothing. The ABC projects them with leads of 2.2% in Melbourne and 1.0% lead in Brunswick, while they’re 1.0% behind in Northcote. The only thing the Prahran two-party count tells us is that they will definitely beat the Liberals if that’s what it comes down to, but with nothing to separate Labor, Liberal and the Greens, they may drop out in third, or lose to Labor if it’s the Liberals who do so. The one thing that is clear is that they have not won Richmond, despite the Liberals’ decision to give them a leg-up by not fielding a candidate.
9.07pm. Plenty to feast on in the ABC’s seats in doubt list, on which twelve seats are listed. Labor has only the gentlest of leads in Brighton, which one suspects will not stick; they are slightly further ahead in Sandringham, which remains very much in doubt; a Labor win in either would be astonishing. Both were vacated by sitting members, and male candidates (a conservative young turk in the case of Brighton) were chosen for both of them.
9.02pm. There are nine seats listed on the ABC’s “changing hands” list – Bayswater, with a 2.0% Labor lead and 42.8% counted, may not be nailed down yet, but the others look fairly solid. The only ones that were widely thought a shot for Labor in advance were Bass, South Barwon and maybe Burwood. The others are remarkable for being affluent and historically blue-ribbon Liberal seats: Box Hill, Caulfield, Mount Waverley and Ringwood. Then there is Nepean, which is a semi-rural seat neighbouring Bass, where the Liberals had a retiring sitting member and may, as in Bass, have been hampered by the retirement of the sitting member, not to mention the party’s uninspired choice for his successor.
8.24pm. Rather extraordinarily, the ABC computer has Labor ahead in Brighton and Sandringham. Either the backlash against the Liberals by well-heeled voters has taken on hitherto unanticipated dimensions, or the high pre-poll vote is turning up static.
8.08pm. Labor has retained Richmond, where the Greens showed characteristic persistence with a dud candidate, but the ABC has the Greens retaining Melbourne and Northcote. Brunswick has been going back and forth — currently it’s down as Labor retain. Prahran is a three-way contest that will be determined by the candidate who drops out in third.
7.53pm. Burwood took a long time to report a result, but not it has, it’s looking like another possible gain for Labor … and indeed has been called for Labor by the ABC as I type.
7.49pm. Ringwood and Mount Waverley looking very solid for Labor now, and Labor looks to have gained South Barwon. The ABC calling Box Hill and Nepean for Labor, but I wouldn’t give those away yet. Less unexpectedly, Labor to gain Bass. Looking close in Ripon, which was thought a lot more likely to go to Labor than the aforementioned.
7.48pm. The ABC computer is now calling Mildura an independent gain, but it shouldn’t be because it’s far too close.
7.38pm. Independent Suzanna Sheed comfortably returned in Shepparton. The ALP is calling Mildura a Nationals retain, but it looks close to me, with independent Ali Cupper a show. The ABC computer apparently doesn’t expect Darryn Lyons to get very strong preferences in Geelong, but I’ll be keeping an eye on it. Ditto Benambra, where Jacqui Hawkins looks competitive against Liberal Bill Tilley. Independent Tammy Atkins is running second behind beleaguered Nationals member Tim McCurdy in Ovens Valley, but his primary vote of 43% looks high enough.
7.36pm. The ABC computer has wound Forest Hill back from Labor gain to Labor ahead, but the Labor leads in Mount Waverley and Ringwood look rather formidable.
7.34pm. Prahran now looking a near three-way tie on the primary vote, as it was in 2014. The Greens are struggling to hold Northcote; still early days in Melbourne and Brunswick; nothing yet in Richmond.
7.32pm. The ABC computer is calling Benambra Liberal retain, but this assumes a Liberal-versus-Labor contest, and independent Jacqui Hawkins is well ahead of Labor in second place. With a primary vote barely north of 40%, Liberal member Bill Tilley is another in trouble.
7.31pm. Small swing to the Greens from the first booth in Melbourne.
7.30pm. Antony Green picking three unheralded Labor gains in the eastern suburbs: Forest Hill, Mount Waverley and Ringwood.
7.27pm. The ABC guesstimate says Labor shouldn’t be troubled by Darryn Lyons in Geelong, but the primary vote numbers look pretty soft for them to me, being just north of 40% and with Lyons clearly placed to finish second.
7.24pm. I’ve been tending to focus on boutique regional contests, but the big story is of overwhelming success for Labor in eastern Melbourne. They’re bolting it in the sandbelt seats, and putting the Liberals under pressure in normally solid seats. Though I reiterate the note of caution that there may be a lot of Liberal vote outstanding in the pre-polls, which will come through later in the night. Even so, it’s clearly a question of how far Labor.
7.18pm. Labor’s good early figures in Ringwood, which I found hard to credit, appear to be sticking.
7.16pm. One bit of good news for the Liberals is there’s an early swing to them in the endangered country seat of Ripon.
7.15pm. The Liberals look like they will run third in Prahran, rendering the notional Liberal-versus-Greens preference count academic. So the result will come down to the flow of Liberal preferences between Labor and the Greens.
7.13pm. The second booth in Brunswick is better for Labor than the first – there is now a 1.0% swing in their favour. Nothing else in from the other potential Greens seats.
7.10pm. The ABC is covering Geelong, where it actually seems to me that independent Darryn Lyons is doing a lot better than he deserves — he’s matching it with the Liberals on the primary vote, and Labor is only on 36.2%. However, the primary vote swing to Labor is 3.5%, which would keep them safe if consistent.
7.07pm. An interestingly huge swing to Labor in the first booth in from Albert Park, whose Wentworth-ish demographic might not be too thrilled with the Liberals right now. The Liberals came close to knocking it over in 2010 and 2014, but not this time by the look of it.
7.06pm. First booth in from Brunswick is a 3.7% swing to the Greens, which exceeds the 2.3% Labor margin.
7.04pm. Independent Jacqui Hawkins polling strongly in Benambra with 25.1%, and Bill Tilley’s 43.1% is low enough to make it touch-and-go for him after preferences.
7.03pm. Early days, but Nationals member Peter Crisp is under pressure from independent Ali Cupper in Mildura.
7.00pm. The first electorate with over 10% counted is Gippsland South, with a 3.7% swing to Labor. It should be cautioned here that the dynamic in play may be that the upsurge in pre-poll voting has disproportionately involved conservative voters. If so, some of these swings will come back later in the evening.
6.58pm. The ABC election results page (they need to make this stuff easier to locate) paints an impressive picture of across-the-board swings to Labor in all those electorates where two-party votes are in.
6.56pm. Russell Northe, the Liberals and the Nationals are almost exactly level in Morwell, all on around 17%, with Labor on 28.3%. Only a few small rural booths, 1.5% counted.
6.53pm. James Purcell, the upper house micro-party member trying to win South-West Coast as an independent, trails Labor 21.2% to 17.2% with 4.3% counted. The Liberal is on 42.0%, so he might be competitive if he closes that gap.
6.50pm. The ABC’s booth-matching is picking up a 6% to 7% drop in the Coalition primary vote, although there is only 0.6% counted.
6.35pm. A few peculiarities with the VEC’s approach actually, such as media feed updates only coming through every five minutes. However, they have picked the notional two-party counts I would have expected, having been guided entirely by what happened last time. So Nationals versus independent counts in Shepparton and Mildura, Nationals versus Labor in Morwell and Liberal versus Greens in Prahran.
6.25pm. An unforeseen peculiarity in the way the AEC does its media feeds means I won’t be able to get my results reporting facility to work until every electorate has a two-party preferred result in, which should take a while.
5.30pm. Half an hour before polls close, a YouGov Galaxy exit poll gives Labor a lead of 55-45. While exit polls don’t have a brilliant record in this country, this does add to a formidable picture of a strong result for Labor. For my part, I’m currently sweating over how my live results reporting and projection facility is going to operate in a real world environment, so stay tuned for that. It should be up in one form or another at about 6:15pm, with the first results to come through shortly after.
Call of the board an utter shemozzle. Antony is a champion in the face of deeply uncooperative technology.
Victoria has given Murdock the middle finger.
@Jaeger
Nooo, ABC needs to have lessons in Technology, and properly funded.
Labour has taken a nat seat in the upper house calculator
This part here. This is probably the scariest element for the Coalition. If this follows federally and affluent voters are willing to vote against the Liberals “just this once” to reject the rot, it would produce a nightmare scenario for the Liberals at the next federal election. Not holding my breath but just imagine.
Poor Antony!
I wish ABC directed its funds to Antony Green’s computer rather than Fran Kelly’s audio version of “the Australian” or Annabelle Crabbe’s cooking shows.
A disgraceful misallocation of public resources.
Here’s to a repeat performance Federally on May 18. Hopefully the clowns in power in Canberra can’t cause too much damage before then.
Yes!
I thought Dan would easily win but this is a trouncing……it’s a PVO wow….
7 News Melbourne @7NewsMelbourne
6m6 minutes ago
Victoria Votes: Kennett calls on Kroger to resign. “No. Jeff is always calling on people to resign…we take those comments with a grain of salt” – @KrogerMichael on @Channel7. “It’s time you went” – @jeff_kennett’s advice to state Liberal president Michael Kroger. #vicvotes
10:10 PM – 24 Nov 2018
https://twitter.com/7NewsMelbourne/status/1066287985757368321
Watch this clip!
Well there you have it. A Labor wipe out. Very poor result by the Liberals and the Greens after appalling campaigns.
I wonder if we’ll see the same result in NSW next March, esp if the federal Muppet Show continues as it has done.
abc currently has in the upper house:
19 Labour
11 crossbench
10 Nat/Lib
What happens if the vote is 20-20?
Catherine McGregor
@CateMc3273
Replying to @JacktheInsider
Quite possibly. Same people on Centre Right could see it coming. They will cop a rinsing. Given the insane obsession with the left they are blind to how like British Labour they have become. Purity ahead of popularity. Not enough gigs at Sky for those who will lose seats.
9:09 PM – 24 Nov 2018
9809 pre-poll votes just counted in Prahran.
Confirms it should be ALP v LIB now. Labor 210 votes ahead of the Greens, with most minor party preferences likely to favour Labor and postals (where Greens fare the worst) being the largest amount of votes left to count.
Pre-poll results bumped the Liberals from third to first but with a primary vote of only 33%, interestingly enough that’s exactly what the 2 seat polls a few weeks ago had them on.
I said it earlier, but this feels like anger at the L/NP as much as it does support for the ALP. The L/NP are on the nose. Newspoll tomorrow will be an interesting comparison.
Great victory. I am happy to have volunteered on both prepoll and election day. Had a good feeling from the vibe. So proud, so happy. Best state to live in. Dan the Man. Made good money on betting markets too 😀
ABC LegCo currently predicting 19 seats for Labor and a mere 10 for the Coalition, including ZERO in North Metro! Obviously this will jump around a lot but Labor does appear likely to be in a strong position. Guaranteed to be a mess of micros – current predictions include only one Green, FOUR Hinchites (including Catherine Cumming), two for Transport Matters, and one each for the Aussie Battlers (Vern Hughes), the Lib Dems, Sustainable Australia and Animal Justice, with all of the current micros losing their seats. Obviously these will change a lot but still a chaotic upper house and, you would hope, a strong incentive for the majors to fix the voting system.
I’ve just left the comfy chair and Antony’s disastrous call of well not much at all, what has the PB take on the polling error being, now I don’t think for a minute we could take this national and assume the 2pp national polling is missing the labour vote by 5%, but for that to happen in Victoria is huge, it is massively significant what have the more stable sober minds said about that?
Even Bolt says campaigning on fear is not good enough.
But it is in the Tory DNA. They have done it every election I can remember, and that starts with 1972.
Labor will steal your money if you are rich, and tax you if you are poor so you can’t get rich.
What the Tories haven’t figured out is what people are really worried about is climate change and half of of them don’t even believe in it.
It will be very interesting to see how the Crazy Branch react to this result. Guy tried out the race-baiting gimmick and it has clearly rebounded on the Liberals. How will they respond? Will the reactionaries be forced to retreat? Listening to Frydenberg, it does seem like the reactionary line is holding.
Labor’s brand values have delivered an enormous result today. These are the same values that Federal Labor campaign on, day-in/day-out, while the Liberals have just debased themselves. Wow.
Croydon, where I put on here Murdoch’s Leader Press has been called upon because of the internal polling and responded, is knife edge again confirming the information I was privy to
In Bayswater, with a late change in Candidate and with the minimum budget, that late change has been rewarded
Again, last Friday, this seat was conceded as almost certainly lost hence my response to those suggesting the former MP would be the Liberal Party Leader
My sources did not concede seats such as Brighton tho
So come Monday I will be able to gently prod my sources that they were wrong!
The savage comment is that their wishes for the outcome have materialised
Perhaps, just perhaps, their projections at Federal level will come to realisation
They are already speaking to losses of seats you would not expect to be lost and particularly to the east of the CBD
The State results say they are on the money
Money?
Also a very large problem for the Liberals including because of attacks on their business demographic who normally donate but are not – and that is before you get to Cormack!
Leroy @ #556 Saturday, November 24th, 2018 – 7:18 pm
Amazing. Two Old White Males fighting it out for relevance in today’s Liberal party. Says it all about the state of the two parties when you compare and contrast with Labor.
Leroy — that clip is unbelievable!
Kroger talking about Kennett’s losses in the 1980s.
Good god they’re old!
Some of us weren’t even born then!
briefly:
By all accounts the reaction of the Liberals will be to lurch further to the right. The question was put to Pesutto tonight and he clearly blanched at the idea without saying much, but then again he just lost his seat so won’t be in the partyroom to have an influence.
briefly
My info is that Frydenberg will not hold his seat
The Liberal vote has collapsed
WeWantPaul @ #567 Saturday, November 24th, 2018 – 10:23 pm
I know that polling companies have rung me on my mobile numerous times because I always ring back a missed call, but they just don’t let the phone ring long enough for me to race to it, open it and take their call. So how many voters are they missing for this simple reason alone? It has to effect polling numbers.
Plus, there’s the old, landline vs mobile phone skew.
I said it was going to be a rout. When Guy opened his campaign in Tory seats out east with over 7% margins. Lucky it wasn’t worse if you ask me.
“Pesutto tonight and he clearly blanched at the idea without saying much, but then again he just lost his seat so won’t be in the partyroom to have an influence.”
He had incredible class, class I wouldn’t have thought the current LNP could muster anywhere, Victoria is much stronger for the strong Labor win, but much weaker in that possibly the only LNP member of Parliament in Australia with class lost.
I think I know why the Greens lost the Eastern Metro seat
https://www.abc.net.au/news/vic-election-2014/results/legislative-council/emet/
Look at count 16 here.
While this year all the minor parties votes stayed with the minor parties
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2014/results/emet/
“Plus, there’s the old, landline vs mobile phone skew.”
Interesting. If you think of all the heat Nate Silver, 538, took in the US for Trumps win, this miss by Australian pollsters is massively worse.
Daniel Andrews gave a fine victory speech. He was humble and yet shown conviction in what he believes. He moulded and transformed the state to his vision. That is what a true leader does. This is what Obama wanted to do but couldn’t deliver.
He looks like a geek and nerd but appears to have a sharp political mind.
Labor ahead of Greens in both Brunswick and Melbourne accord to VEC. ABC has Greens leading both.
Despite an ordinary campaign, the greens didn’t really lose ground in terms of voting numbers. This was just a rampant red tidal wave. It was a perfect storm. Reckon Dee Ryall texted Michael Sukkar a heartfelt thanks.
What’s with the ABC counts?
Brunswick
Labor Cindy O’Connor 8,519 49.1% -3.1%
Greens Tim Read 8,340 50.9% +3.1%
Melbourne
Labor Jennifer Kanis 9,721 48.2% +0.6%
Greens Ellen Sandell 9,704 51.8% -0.6%
Last time I checked, 9721 was greater than 9704, and 8519 was greater than 8340.
@Alpha Zero
And in the upper house it was all the preference deals that did them in.
Confessions, Observer….yes, it’s obvious they are institutionally busted and the electorate want none of it. They have a serious existential challenge. If their PV falls in to the 20’s they will cede power to Labor and the Independents until they reform; until they try to connect with the interests and values of voters rather than their own obsessions.
This is the inexorable conclusion of the rise of the Crazies.
@Lev Lafayette
Prehaps ABC is using projected % and actual votes for the count?
” Despite an ordinary campaign, the greens didn’t really lose ground in terms of voting numbers.”
Really, last I saw they were down about 1% of total which for them is like a 8% loss of vote. Has it changed to evens?
God says “9.30pm. The Greens, as ever, are living on a knife edge — they could win four, they could win nothing”
Looks similar in the LC.
I really did feel for him, esp when he was badgered by Michael Rowland about whether Kroger should resign. I thought he showed genuine professionalism and humility. Tough gig given the spot he was in.
The thing that old Liberal warhorses like Kroger and Kennett don’t get when they go on and on about ‘the debt Labor is racking up for our children with no new taxes to pay for their infrastructure promises’, is that the electorate don’t mind that sort of investment for the future. And they compare it to the Liberal offering where they bung taxpayers’ money to their mates in Private Industry, such as in Transport, Health and Education, to ‘increase Services’ but they then beggar the Public offerings of these services, PLUS they then use the money they bank from selling off Public Assets to lower the tax rates, which only benefit the wealthy at the expense of the less wealthy because that’s how they usually skew it.
So you have Labor, who provide Services and Infrastructure vs the Coalition who offer Tax Cuts and Asset Sales and hiving off of taxpayers’ $ to their mates.
Is it any wonder Labor win?
Dans my Premier. He just gets it. Knows we need to invest big time on infrastructure. Knows we needto stare dowN the religious nutters and introduce progressive legislation. Knows we needevidence based policy. Knows the lornorder mob are fuckwits.
Proud to call him the Premier of Victoria. Next stop Canberra, Dan?
@ Catprog the ABC is taking into account booths that haven’t reported yet and estimates of what the prepolls and postals will do.
briefly:
Listening to Kroger and Frydenberg tonight, the Vic Libs see no need for reform.
Am thinking that’s their Achilles heel moving forward.
Do we have comparisons of prepoll v today voting for some seats?
Observer
says:
Saturday, November 24, 2018 at 10:33 pm
briefly
My info is that Frydenberg will not hold his seat
The Liberal vote has collapsed
_____________________
oh please, what info? from the neighbours cat?
So here’s what my election results feature would have looked like if it hadn’t gone tits up.
https://www.pollbludger.net/results/vic2018results.htm
Labor keep on finding candidates, leaders, volunteers, ideas, policies….the structure works….incredible.
Confessions9:41pm
WRT PVO twitter
If Peter Dutton is the answer what is the question?